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Game Over on Round 5 Day

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Okay, so it's pretty obvious who it is now. JJJ had no reason as town to hammer there. The fact that both confirmed towns had shown up directly prior should be enough. The execution was always between me and ExLight at that point, I was committed to ExLight and ExLight had claimed intent to vote me soon. That intent is very important here. Because I think from wolfpov I am a much better person to take to f3. I have been poe nearly all game after all. Exlight said they had intent, 2 confirmed towns shown up and were discussing things, and JJJ says they have to vote because they are going. I think the motivation is pretty clear there? JJJ had no strong opinion on either of us going up to that. Which is weird, no? Townpov JJJ knew one of us had to be wolf. Wolfpov JJJ just wished to survive.

This is all very tangenty and barely strung together I know, I'm sorry I'm rushing to get this post out before I'm unavaliable. I have a doctors appointment to head to soon, but hopefully I'll be back some point this evening. I'll stick around for a few minutes if anyones here. I'm on my way now. I don't think I'll have time to talk to anyone more than I had to say already.
Good luck all.
Vote: JaggedJimmyJay

No, you left me with no choice. I could not wait longer, and it was incredibly frustrating that everyone showed up at the literal second I was leaving. I had to place my vote, and that's what I did. The two votes that preceded me meant that my vote was a hammer. I really wish that whole self-vote thing never existed, but I will talk about that after the game.

You know all that though.

You never needed to vote anyone. You could've left it to the two confirmed towns that just shown up. There is no rule disallowing novoting and novoting was the correct play from town.
Avoid plain accusatory remarks like in the last sentence here. They're inflammatory and aim to derail the conversation from moving forward, so unless you want that please stick to call and response. 

The case on me is that there is no case on me. I've done very little all game and JJJ has. I think. There's really not much to my slot.
Apologies for the self-analysis but my play yesterday doesn't make sense from wolf, no? As wolf I benefit from going with the locktown's plan as that puts me in their favor even if it benefits the wolf. Especially if it benefits the wolf even. Like JJJ did.

The problematic thing is about your case being “having no case” is that a wolf can stay quiet to prevent leaking their role. But a townie could also be quiet to not fuck up too…
I get this is on my hands, but please, we don’t need to be so violent. 

The case on me is that there is no case on me. I've done very little all game and JJJ has. I think. There's really not much to my slot.
Apologies for the self-analysis but my play yesterday doesn't make sense from wolf, no? As wolf I benefit from going with the locktown's plan as that puts me in their favor even if it benefits the wolf. Especially if it benefits the wolf even. Like JJJ did.

Your play makes plenty of sense from a wolf. You declined to take a concrete stance on anyone until I had to really squeeze it out of you, and it was a lukewarm wolf read on the player that voted for themself. I am a strong believer in teamwork, and Sugar Moon gave us a really good way to work between the vanilla claims and the power roles that I wanted to respect. I wrote an article about leadership and teamwork in Mafia/WW myself because it is that important to me. When someone provides well-intended direction, I will honor their suggestion every time.

It is disingenuous to suggest not trying to engage the exercise at all is somehow town indicative.

Alright, I'm out. I need to make this doctors appointment. I will be back before eod. Do not vote me before I am back as I have more to do here. Bye all

The case on me is that there is no case on me. I've done very little all game and JJJ has. I think. There's really not much to my slot.
Apologies for the self-analysis but my play yesterday doesn't make sense from wolf, no? As wolf I benefit from going with the locktown's plan as that puts me in their favor even if it benefits the wolf. Especially if it benefits the wolf even. Like JJJ did.

The problematic thing is about your case being “having no case” is that a wolf can stay quiet to prevent leaking their role. But a townie could also be quiet to not fuck up too…
I get this is on my hands, but please, we don’t need to be so violent.

Yeah, that's my point. That's the case on me. I am stating it myself because I believe having control over information is important and by opening with it first I establish awareness.

You never needed to vote anyone. You could've left it to the two confirmed towns that just shown up. There is no rule disallowing novoting and novoting was the correct play from town.
Avoid plain accusatory remarks like in the last sentence here. They're inflammatory and aim to derail the conversation from moving forward, so unless you want that please stick to call and response.

The notion that I should just not place at vote at all in a final five situation is very silly. Of course I am going to vote. I am going to allow myself to have a voice in the final decision.

I can provide the best case that I can manage to show that it's serif and also a case that it's not me.

Leesbra, any misgivings you have, please share them when you can. It's very important to communicate.

Well, I don’t exactly have proof of you potentially being mafia, though I guess that’s more on the fact we haven’t had much talk around you recently, and nothing was shown early game.

If you have proof against Serif, go ahead. It’s be nice for both of you to defend yourself, considering the stance we’re in…

I will do both. I might need some time while I work, but I will do both.

I think the best evidence that my hammer vote was not motivated by survival is that my survival wasn't really even threatened. I was one of the "vanilla three", but I think there was more pressure on both ExLight and serif. I probably didn't need to hammer to "survive". I just placed the vote that I thought was best at the last possible moment that I could wait to place it, and unfortunately here we are.

I want to propose the following, since we're never going to be stronger than we are today (with two clears and two secret supports vs one wolf):

- Serif pretends that she's left tomorrow with JJJ and one PR. JJJ is therefore definitely a wolf to her, and she goes through the game to make the best wolf case she can
- JJJ does the same for ExLight
- ExLight cases Serif

Leesbra and I will be here to help/feedback/rubber duck. This is less work for each of you than trying to decide between two people. It gives Leesbra and me good content to compare you all. It does hinge on all three of you wanting to do it.

What does rubber duck mean here lol

I am a bit busy today and will be a bit busy tomorrow, so I'm not sure how elaborate my analysis on serif will be but for now I think I can explain a bit more why Serif on the bottom of my lists.

One thing that caught my attention was them defending my slot D1 when I was leading the wagons, which came off as an attempt to distance from my mislynch. They mentioned me being "very productive", but I'm aware that I wasn't and that my content was very underwhelming - specially after rereading it. There were also no comments on the 1x1s such as Cait-Luka and JJJ-Calla, or any other interaction other than a single stance of Cait-me really. In the end they also voted in a somewhat safe wagon, that was at no risk of getting lynched, which is something that would be somewhat expected from scum - as opposed to JJJ placing a key vote on that day's mislynch (Jamie).

On the following days there was barely any contribution from Serif. Most of their messages are promises of catching up and never doing it, and even being "demotivated" by the red check on Numbers.

The few suspicions they seem to cast on players seem to also ignore their previous reads and be almost random. At a few points they asked people to explain to them who was the overall towncore consensus to kinda sheep it, which felt like a lack of interest in scumhunting and a way of understanding the gamestate better from a scum. This resulted in some weird things, like them suddenly moving me to a scumlean with a weak reasoning such as "tone" or "vibes" despite them hard defending me at EoD - even though I had started gaining traction and being much more productive than I was, or a sudden vote on luka without any comments on the posts of the people that mentioned townreading that slot. Those prompted me prodding them asking for their early reads on other days, which honestly got an unsatisfactory reply.

I am compiling my own case against serif, but I also want to bring back ExLight's. They made good points above, and they should be considered.

That this post is available to us now really displays the value of Sugar Moon's suggestion yesterday. That was an awesome technique that I will borrow in future games.

The spoiler below is just quotes (mostly from serif), but the multiquote function threw them all out of order. I'm just going to put this here for my own reference while I write a case in proper order.

Spoiler

Vote: ExLight
I think it's quite strange you don't fit your endgame selfmeta. You are, for the most part, confident, straightforward, and quite sure of yourself.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

Direct communication is great. It might be difficult since I am at work, but I can at least respond sporadically. My concern is that it's very unclear today, as of Day 4, where you stand. Your most recent post seems to imply suspicion of ExLight, but it's not stated concretely. So first, could you confirm or deny that interpretation? Is ExLight your biggest suspect at present? And regardless of ExLight, what is your impression of me?

That is correct. Your motivation seems to have good intent but I do not have much on you

Host Announcement

Serif; has officially subbed in for GoldenOne

Please do not discuss substitutions!

Welcome! Your slot had only 1 post so you don't have to worry about replacing into a suspicious slot or a slot that already claimed a role

Thanks for letting me know haha
I've replaced on quite short notice so apologies but I haven't seen much or any of the game so far. I'll be having a look so I'll see you all shortly

Welcome, serif. Do you see how I have welcomed you using a font with serifs? What a clever idea. Wow, me!

You're not the first and probably not the last

I looked back over Numbers, and my impression is similar as for ExLight. Their posts exist.

I am a bit unclear on their reads, which at times seem sort of "implied" rather than stated clearly. @Numbers, I'd appreciate if you could clarify where you stand on everyone. A reads list or something similar would be super.

Generally I try not to stand on people and probably tend to favor their left side, likely because I'm a righty myself.

I've stated very few reads so your view isn't surprising. But since you asked, here's some rainbow sherbet:

GloriousBob
Ex
Luka
Callahan
Serif
IceT
JJJ
Jamie
Leesbra
Cait

BobbyMac isn't a hard town read but when you're that glorious you get to be green anyway. While this might not be Mac that I know from hydra games I feel like it's in line for Bob's presence in London adventure so I feel like that is NAI Bob persona vs how Mac just normally plays. I talked about why Luka had town points before and Ex just feels like he does whenever I rope him into games and he's half paying attention which I would attribute to lower pressure town!Ex vs scum!Ex. Serif, T, and Jamie are replacement null for now. Callahan I didn't really have issue with in terms of stances, as said before the over the top bit just gives me pause because I don't have meta experience there. On the other side of that coin is JJJ who I feel is performative but I'm paused from orange sherberting here because I feel like it's NAI performance. Like they might just be a theater kid and love the showman aspect. Leesbra gets to be orange because I reviewed their other game and do not feel they were nearly as timid. Could be dichotomy of alignments but could also just be them attempting to course correct since they were caught wolf day 2. Would rather see more out of the slot than see them go over though. Cait gets to be orange because the "why did you suddenly show up?" question just doesn't sit well with me. The only thing it does for a town!Cait is set up the argument that Ex was creeping in thread just waiting for somebody to mention him but that's like a horrible argument from a town perspective but would be an easy thing for a wolf to pounce on. I don't really expect a champs player to go for that low of fruit but also it just sticks out like a sore thumb.

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

Why is it bad that I asked Ex why they suddenly showed up? They weren't there. They get accused and they IMMEDIATELY pop up. This, in my eyes, could mean 2 sus things;
- Ex was lurking
Or
- Ex is mafia and their teammate attended them of being accused

So imo asking Ex why they suddenly showed up is a completely normal question. Popping up right away after being accused is either a coincidence, or pretty sus

Posts like this read to me as pretty townie. It's an overextension, I don't really agree with what's being said (wolfy pop-ins are real it's just I don't see this here) but I think a wolf would avoid making such an accusation if it didn't come from genuine emotion? I'd at least leave this slot alone today

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

You have ten minutes I am afraid.

I thought I could read all the posts in that time. At the rate they are being generated? I am.. less certain. I'll skim and then join you all in realtime.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

This is the only place I'm comfortable today.

I don't really like Ex's reaction rn but I also liked their posts before

Bob if you're super confident on Ex I'll vote with you

I don't like this. Ex has been very productive from what I've seen and killing them this early based on eod whims seems like the risk reward really isnt there. Also the language of this post is very hedgy. Not good.

I'd really rather you lived D1 ExLight. Just saying

Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

I really thought you were town D1 off the ATE. I also thought Jamie was town, but atp I liked them more than you so I was really only going to pivot to you if Bob was super confident.

After reevaling at night the ATE... I guess got weaker?

ATM I have Cait and Luka as locked Town. I'm willing to sheep Luka on Leesbra since they would stake their life on it.

Leaves me Serif / JJJ / Calla / Numbers / Ex

I said D1 how I think JJJ and Calla was town, and it hasn't changed for me. My POE is left with Serif / Ex / Numbers, and while I can see either Serif / Ex being town, Numbers is locked Mafia in every world.

Does anyone have a list of why the consensus town are consensus? I get the feeling I've fallen behind so it'd be much help.

Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

heya, have you caught up yet? EoD in 3 hours

There's around ~250 posts right? I should be able to do that. Instead of reading up on the thread I've been trying to figure out how this software works, I have the tech skills of a grandma

Hey everyone. Interesting end to day 1 there. I'm exhausted so I'll cover some posts later. Just checking in.

Hey folks. I'm going to be away this evening, because Sunday is for football. I have some ideas though about how I might begin to get into some deeper analysis of the game than just vibes, and I will dig into things soon. As low-key as Day 1 was (at least by the standard of what I am accustomed to), there was enough "drama" and interactive content to begin to build a proper game theory. I'll do that.

Let me know how the game goes! I was going to watch but it looks like I'm missing it again. I keep planning to watch and then completely forgetting until a day after. Maybe next time

I think my only reads, being on icet and Caitlin, have been less than ideal, first game reads and all.
Nice to meet you Sugar Moon.

It really doesn't feel like the tone comes from business, but I don't think I'll have the time to think about that much further. I have to head out now, good luck all

Oh good afternoon ExLight

Hi, good afternoon!
Unfortunately I feel like you're at the bottom of my readslists, care to bounce some ideas off with me?

Sorry, I really don't have much
I don't see anything redeemable from Luka, but if it isn't Luka I'm stumped.
If there's a deepwolf I'd currently say it's you, your high placement is backed from Numbers' spew but something just irks me about your slot. I couldn't say what

Understandable, I too find being overly busy with college scummy!
My game do be shit so far, all the people I scumread turned out to be Townies.

I'm sorry, is there a problem? I don't understand the shade in the first statement although maybe I'm just misreading self depreciation
I never said your activity was what made you scummy, nor your reads. I've been less active and probably just as accurate. It's more of a tone thing, I can't pin it exactly though which is why I said "something just irks me".

Oh good afternoon ExLight

I can't lie this entire redcheck thing has been kind of demotivating, I think it's because I didn't really get what was going on until it was sorted.
I'm here, but from the looks of it the game is over and I don't have much to add if it isn't. Sorry about that.
I think it's best just to go forward from here.
Vote: Numbers

I want to make a really dramatic post but I'll be busy the next 24 hours

Cait Luka locked town Numbers Exlight scum (possibly serif over Exlight)

Vote: Numbers

I haven't finished backreading everything yet but again JJJ / Calla are town for me due to the reasons stated.

I haven't really made a read on ExLight / Numbers but I do remember really liking their posts and Bob's towncore sounds good enough for me to sheep it, which also leans Bob as town to me

I remember liking Cait posting but don't remember why


This is ordered FYI
Town
JJJ
Calla

Town Lean
Bob
Exlight
Numbers
(ExLight and Numbers aren't ordered)

Town Null
Cait
Jamie

Scum Read
Luka

POE = Leesbra / Serif

I can be convinced to vote Jamie I think? I remember really liking their 1 post

Hello all good afternoon. Sorry, I've been very busy but I'm here now.

While I quite like Serif's vibe and would definitely play with them again, I also have to consider that they haven't... given a read. On anyone. At least I don't remember one. I'd verify with an ISO, but I can't be digging around the thread at work.

I've given some reads but it's been quite awkward for me overall. I replaced in day 2, shown up in day 3 for there to be a redcheck, and well, now its day 4. or day 3? My entire mental clock has been thrown off.

busyness*

Oh good afternoon ExLight

Hi, good afternoon!
Unfortunately I feel like you're at the bottom of my readslists, care to bounce some ideas off with me?

Sorry, I really don't have much
I don't see anything redeemable from Luka, but if it isn't Luka I'm stumped.
If there's a deepwolf I'd currently say it's you, your high placement is backed from Numbers' spew but something just irks me about your slot. I couldn't say what

God, sorry, I'm here. Let me have a look.

Hey everyone. EOD right?
I can't point to any singular post but Luka hasn't come across well to me once this game. Between myself and the person Luka is voting, I'd much rather vote Luka.
Vote: Luka
I'll hang around for now, hopefully until EoD but I might have to leave before then.
Anyone else here?

To be completely honest I'm having a bit of trouble getting anything useful from this read up. Its early days and I don't know any of you very well yet so I can't really distinguish what is in character or not. I'll pay attention to some specifics for now that aren't as reliant on those factors and I'll let everyone know as things come up. Sorry about that

I think my only reads, being on icet and Caitlin, have been less than ideal, first game reads and all.
Nice to meet you Sugar Moon.

These make sense based on D2 but I'm surprised you seem to not consider your D1 reads

I couldn't think of any other reads. Maybe I'm just blanking though

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.

My impression had been that it doesn't provide a mathematical advantage. My brain is not kind to math this evening, so I haven't double-checked. Let me see if I can:

4 vs. 1 today
- If two power roles claim, they are virtually cleared and the mafia is forced to claim vanilla.
- Essentially this becomes 2 + [2 vs. 1], so the chance of a randomized correct answer is .33
- If the answer is wrong (.67 probability), the chance is .50 in final three (2 vs 1 with one clear).
I think this calls for a conjunctive probability:
- Probability of right first time = .33
- Probability of wrong first time and right in final three = .67 x .50 = .33
- Probability of wrong both times = .67 x .50 = .33

If nobody claims at all today, that implies a power role is not threatened (because a town power role about to be voted out mechanically must claim), so it'd still be one mafia among three options -- .33 chance today, and if wrong (.67) followed by .50 in final three when everyone claims.

If one power role claims under threat of elimination, four non-claims remain (so 1 in 4 or .25, but the second power role may then also claim if threatened, returning us to .33).

So it is the same? I am not sure I am doing this correctly. It's 2:00 AM lol.

If there is an advantage to mass claiming, it'd be that it alleviates a danger of prematurely hammering a power role before they claim or having a last minute panic vote on a power role at EOD. I think.

I very much welcome criticism if any of this logic is bad. I'm tired.

So it's 1v4 with 2 PRs and 2 citizens right?
if we claim today the goon has to claim citizen as otherwise we just execute both claims. We execute a citizen today and tomorrow. One third chance based on random odds today, one half tomorrow as one PR dies and one confirmed PR remains. 66% chance there.
If we don't claim, the odds are a much less forgiving 50/50. We should always claim here

More on that, I'd argue it's better not to kill exlight here? They weren't suspected before today other than my deepwolf whims and while their logic for a self-vote isn't sound I think mafia in a situation like this would avoid so much attention, although I'm not familiar with exlight's meta
If we're decided we should begin as soon as possible.

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

That vote isn't real. It comes from an idea you supposedly abandoned, have shown no interest in to the point of trying to get yourself locktowned for the vote, and from the start was not mechanically sound as town.

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

Your vote is still on yourself. I was under the impression you had declined to continue with the whole self-vote mechanics strategy you opened the day with. Am I mistaken?

No, I'll stay on myself. If people decide to townlock me then they can simply not vote me, but if people still have doubts about my slot then me making into -Lo is too dangerous and should be dealt with here

It's things like these that is why JJJ could've claimed PR. Your play here could result in the only person you supposedly know as town, you, to die. You do not want that. It is in every citizen's best interest here to survive.
Your vote was placed to prevent a PR exec, correct? Then what's the point of it now?

I’m on board. Claims will really help POE too.

Alright, that's 3/5. claiming vanilla.

Oh, nevermind, it looks like wayyy too much happened in my absence for any analysis to be worth anything! That's fun. And entirely my fault. I'll go over the recent occurrences.

I do apologize for the lack of content from me. I have trouble playing with new people
Hopefully when I see you all again I'll've gotten better in that regard

God sorry I'm here now. Let me continue from where I was

I disagree that it comes down to presentation.

I agree that usually the player seen as the one putting more effort usually plays a major role, but it's by resurfacing the posts throughout the game and discussing them that people can reach on a good game-winning conclusion.

I'm more often than not a mess in endgames, and it shows. With pressure my logic starts getting a bit all over the place, I get paranoid, my grammar worsens tenfold, etc - The point is my presentation becomes shit. Yet for some reason my late game town winrate is extremely high, with me almost never being the mislynch (I've been mislynched only twice out of D1).
Unrelated point -- You are doing none of these things right now. In an endgame. Supposedly as town.

I don't know exactly why, but I'd assume it's because of being able to bring resonating points, provide engagement with other players, and show effort - which is what a game, specially on -Lo needs. And this is mostly NAI? (It's usually a bit more towny cuz scum hesitates due to being afraid of accidentally framing themselves)
What you mention here is presentation.

You have two people you need to look into. Even if you don't know how to ISO (which could be done by checking our forum posts since I doubt any of the players has been engaging with the rest of the forums), skimming the thread for their posts shouldn't be too hard. Earlier you mentioned finding something about my tone off, yet you never tried finding the root of it. Why?
First of all -- for me, it is. I am not good at that as I explained in my post. I am an IRL player first and that makes my backreading very weak.
Second of all, it will always differ from player to play how strong their backreading is. You are able to find or manipulate posts on any player to come to the conclusion that they are wolf. If you're going into it with the bias that they are wolf, as presented in the method, It will almost certainly lead to nothing a majority of the time and cause the players to go in circles.

This is the sort of behavior that makes your slot look worse than JJJ, not his verbiage and overanalytical posts. How can we compare who has the better points if one of the people refuses to?
That's my exact point here! You can't. And I'm making sure you can't, because this is how we lose games. Avoiding talking to each other directly does nothing here. In my prior posts I mention asking smaller questions and having player's talk about their most distinct reads because those are harder to fake.

Also JJJ was always stuck with vanilla claim unless he decided to throw game.

If he had claimed Bodyguard we could've lynched him and Leesbra. If he had claimed cop we could've lynched him and Sugar Moon. The only claim that allows scum to gain tempo and potentially last longer is if they claim vanilla.
This doesn't disagree with what I said, which was in fact responding to this exact point. A bad play doesn't ever mean an impossible one. Players are irrational.

I talked about every single thing you said here. We are going in circles because I've decided to be detailed in my reasoning and this is without backreading. A big issue here is we need a neutral observer (the confirmed PRs) to mediate, and they are currently absent, but the bigger issue is the format itself. I've put my comments in red.

I'll still be busy today, but I think I already made contributed as much as I could. I'd prefer Serif toDay due to the almost no progression that slot had in the game, even as we now are down to 2 players. I also had previously mentioned the lesser points that bothered me about JJJ's slot, and is more of a mixed read. If anyone wants to try discussing them with me I'll be open to it, but I'm not sure I'll be able to give a timely reply.

If people are willing to trust me and townlock me I would recommend Serif first. It's a bit of another WIFOM argument in defense of my slot but if I were scum it would be suicidal to go into final 3 against JJJ instead of Serif, and I hope people realize that.

Can everyone start voting?

The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first.
Also, in the first quote, there's an awkward extension made into townlocking. While I don't like how it's gone for overconfident for wolf as I mentioned earlier to townlocking, it would be quite silly to WIFOM their own play. Not sure how I feel about that.

@serif

You’re not obligated to be on board with the strategy that Sugar Moon proposed. There are many ways to approach any situation. Still, if not that: then what?

The only process absolutely guaranteed to result in no correct answer is the absence of a process. As we stand, I’d vote you first on that basis. I don’t quite see how you are managing the situation (or know where you stand) even if on your own terms.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Scum wouldn't claim a Power Role here if they can get counterclaimed, so they always claim vanilla.
Since both Power Roles claimed, then JJJ is stuck with a vanilla claim, regardless of it being true or not.

Knowing that the current PoE is JJJ, you, and me, what are your current reads on these slots?
I know you mentioned that you're townleaning my slot a bit due to me self-voting, so that means JJJ is your remaining PoE slot, right?

I'd still like if you ISO'ed him, if possible. I think seeing your points on him as well as your arguments will help us gather a more solid read.

Yeah, as I said in the post after that one

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

I don't really know how you expect me to ISO, there's no ISO function right?
JJJ, however, was not stuck with a vanilla claim, whether it was the correct play or not. People aren't rational. You cannot rely on something happening because it's the right thing to do


I've done things similar to this approach before but never with such a level of detail. I take problem with it because it falls apart when A: players lack familiarity with one another and B: players are not equally as capable
One of those has to be true to come to a conclusion. If players are equally as capable, they are comparable directly. With familiarity, you can normalize that even if they aren't equal and then compare. I've not met any of you before this game and I doubt we have equal capability here, I'm very much an IRL player so this backreading has never been my forte. It falls apart here. Comparing such different players with no point of reference will probably just waste time

With my background, I'm much more inclined towards more compact methods. Endgame casing tends to dilute the alignment of the player through boilerplate and makes it more about what player has the better presentation when ideally you should be analyzing what the player says for information about the player rather than their case target, which can be made more difficult by more content. It's almost paradoxical but keeping it to a player's fundamental ideas on another player is more useful. Anyone can go searching for reasons that someone is wolf. It is harder on the wolf to give the brief most important things because what's most important to the wolf will vary from what's most important from the town.

Sorry for posting my manifesto in response to this, I just don't agree with the concept presented here

I feel slightly better knowing my last readslist had the correct PoE

Ok so the lynch today has to be between me, JJJ, or Serif

Has JJJ claimed? If not, I wouldn't be so hasty as it is technically possible the wolf claimed PR
I think having airtight mech here is very important.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

This, right here, is my issue with the proposed method. I'll explain in a moment, I'm getting a coffee

The case against serif:

Spoiler

Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

heya, have you caught up yet? EoD in 3 hours

There's around ~250 posts right? I should be able to do that. Instead of reading up on the thread I've been trying to figure out how this software works, I have the tech skills of a grandma 

To be completely honest I'm having a bit of trouble getting anything useful from this read up. Its early days and I don't know any of you very well yet so I can't really distinguish what is in character or not. I'll pay attention to some specifics for now that aren't as reliant on those factors and I'll let everyone know as things come up. Sorry about that

This was their introductory material, and they were very slow out of the gate. That happens sometimes, but it's very typical for wolves to have this kind of trepidation. Sometimes the hardest part of being a wolf is literally having any clue what to say. I have experienced that many times.

Spoiler

Why is it bad that I asked Ex why they suddenly showed up? They weren't there. They get accused and they IMMEDIATELY pop up. This, in my eyes, could mean 2 sus things;
- Ex was lurking
Or
- Ex is mafia and their teammate attended them of being accused

So imo asking Ex why they suddenly showed up is a completely normal question. Popping up right away after being accused is either a coincidence, or pretty sus

Posts like this read to me as pretty townie. It's an overextension, I don't really agree with what's being said (wolfy pop-ins are real it's just I don't see this here) but I think a wolf would avoid making such an accusation if it didn't come from genuine emotion? I'd at least leave this slot alone today

This single post is the standout exception in serif's early play, where they provided a concrete read. It's a soft read with numerous caveats (to leave wiggle room to change it up later) -- I highlighted the caveats in orange. This was probably about pocketing Caitlin, and it may have been successful. Caitlin is a very vibes-oriented player, and serif might have hit the right note to capture Caitlin's vibe falsely.

Spoiler

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

You have ten minutes I am afraid.

I thought I could read all the posts in that time. At the rate they are being generated? I am.. less certain. I'll skim and then join you all in realtime.

I don't really like Ex's reaction rn but I also liked their posts before

Bob if you're super confident on Ex I'll vote with you

I don't like this. Ex has been very productive from what I've seen and killing them this early based on eod whims seems like the risk reward really isnt there. Also the language of this post is very hedgy. Not good.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

This is the only place I'm comfortable today.

This is mostly serif's posts around EOD1. They arrived at the last minute and voted for Icet. It's not visible here, but this came after Icet had already cast suspicion on serif (see below):

Spoiler

personally I disagree with TRing Serif atm, pretty sure my POE points to them

I haven't finished backreading everything yet but again JJJ / Calla are town for me due to the reasons stated.

I haven't really made a read on ExLight / Numbers but I do remember really liking their posts and Bob's towncore sounds good enough for me to sheep it, which also leans Bob as town to me

I remember liking Cait posting but don't remember why


This is ordered FYI
Town
JJJ
Calla

Town Lean
Bob
Exlight
Numbers
(ExLight and Numbers aren't ordered)

Town Null
Cait
Jamie

Scum Read
Luka

POE = Leesbra / Serif

I can be convinced to vote Jamie I think? I remember really liking their 1 post

So serif's vote for Icet was disguised "omgus" really. They accused Icet of something, but it was a nothingburger about them "hedging", which is the easiest accusation in the world for wolves to throw around. Town players are allowed to question themselves or lack confidence.

They spent essentially all of Day 1 avoiding the spotlight and not doing anything that would ruffle feathers or attract questions. Credit to Icet who seemed to have caught on well before the rest of us (really an all-around GOAT game by Icet).

Spoiler

I really thought you were town D1 off the ATE. I also thought Jamie was town, but atp I liked them more than you so I was really only going to pivot to you if Bob was super confident.

After reevaling at night the ATE... I guess got weaker?

ATM I have Cait and Luka as locked Town. I'm willing to sheep Luka on Leesbra since they would stake their life on it.

Leaves me Serif / JJJ / Calla / Numbers / Ex

I said D1 how I think JJJ and Calla was town, and it hasn't changed for me. My POE is left with Serif / Ex / Numbers, and while I can see either Serif / Ex being town, Numbers is locked Mafia in every world.

Pretty sure GF is just ex / serif here

Cait is confirmed town unless RBer went on GF

Good lord, Icet was like three days ahead of all of us.

Spoiler

God, sorry, I'm here. Let me have a look.

Oh, nevermind, it looks like wayyy too much happened in my absence for any analysis to be worth anything! That's fun. And entirely my fault. I'll go over the recent occurrences.

I can't lie this entire redcheck thing has been kind of demotivating, I think it's because I didn't really get what was going on until it was sorted.
I'm here, but from the looks of it the game is over and I don't have much to add if it isn't. Sorry about that.
I think it's best just to go forward from here.
Vote: Numbers

This is the initial Day 2 progression for serif. The last post is certainly on-the-nose for a wolf, but that's what happened lol. I mean, at face value, confirming a member of the wolf team should not be demotivating. That is what put us in a strong position in the first place. That's where additional analysis is most valuable.

Spoiler

Hello all good afternoon. Sorry, I've been very busy but I'm here now.

While I quite like Serif's vibe and would definitely play with them again, I also have to consider that they haven't... given a read. On anyone. At least I don't remember one. I'd verify with an ISO, but I can't be digging around the thread at work.

I've given some reads but it's been quite awkward for me overall. I replaced in day 2, shown up in day 3 for there to be a redcheck, and well, now its day 4. or day 3? My entire mental clock has been thrown off.

I think my only reads, being on icet and Caitlin, have been less than ideal, first game reads and all.
Nice to meet you Sugar Moon.

Does anyone have a list of why the consensus town are consensus? I get the feeling I've fallen behind so it'd be much help.

serif continues to just barely engage the game from the perspective of looking for solutions. Even that last question could theoretically be a good one, but only if there is follow up and some kind of effort to figure out the game with it. I answered them myself to give serif a platform to try to get involved, and they didn't do anything with that ever again as far as I can see.

They also seem to have forgotten some of their own reads (like their defense of ExLight on Day 1), which is understandable when the reads aren't real in the first place.

Spoiler

Hey everyone. EOD right?
I can't point to any singular post but Luka hasn't come across well to me once this game. Between myself and the person Luka is voting, I'd much rather vote Luka.
Vote: Luka
I'll hang around for now, hopefully until EoD but I might have to leave before then.
Anyone else here?

Oh good afternoon ExLight

Hi, good afternoon!
Unfortunately I feel like you're at the bottom of my readslists, care to bounce some ideas off with me?

Sorry, I really don't have much
I don't see anything redeemable from Luka, but if it isn't Luka I'm stumped.
If there's a deepwolf I'd currently say it's you, your high placement is backed from Numbers' spew but something just irks me about your slot. I couldn't say what

Based on the material that came before these posts, I have no idea why serif suspected Luka. This came out of nowhere. ExLight pointed this out too, and it's a good point. Indeed, serif was another person receiving votes if I recall correctly, so this was just self-preservation. Saying "this is a self-preservation vote" is the town approach. Making up a reason to suspect someone when you place the self-preservation vote is the wolf approach.

Spoiler

Hey everyone. EOD right?
I can't point to any singular post but Luka hasn't come across well to me once this game. Between myself and the person Luka is voting, I'd much rather vote Luka.
Vote: Luka
I'll hang around for now, hopefully until EoD but I might have to leave before then.
Anyone else here?

Im incapable of explaining why but I dont like this slot

Luka eventually saw the light too.

Spoiler

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.

My impression had been that it doesn't provide a mathematical advantage. My brain is not kind to math this evening, so I haven't double-checked. Let me see if I can:

4 vs. 1 today
- If two power roles claim, they are virtually cleared and the mafia is forced to claim vanilla.
- Essentially this becomes 2 + [2 vs. 1], so the chance of a randomized correct answer is .33
- If the answer is wrong (.67 probability), the chance is .50 in final three (2 vs 1 with one clear).
I think this calls for a conjunctive probability:
- Probability of right first time = .33
- Probability of wrong first time and right in final three = .67 x .50 = .33
- Probability of wrong both times = .67 x .50 = .33

If nobody claims at all today, that implies a power role is not threatened (because a town power role about to be voted out mechanically must claim), so it'd still be one mafia among three options -- .33 chance today, and if wrong (.67) followed by .50 in final three when everyone claims.

If one power role claims under threat of elimination, four non-claims remain (so 1 in 4 or .25, but the second power role may then also claim if threatened, returning us to .33).

So it is the same? I am not sure I am doing this correctly. It's 2:00 AM lol.

If there is an advantage to mass claiming, it'd be that it alleviates a danger of prematurely hammering a power role before they claim or having a last minute panic vote on a power role at EOD. I think.

I very much welcome criticism if any of this logic is bad. I'm tired.

So it's 1v4 with 2 PRs and 2 citizens right?
if we claim today the goon has to claim citizen as otherwise we just execute both claims. We execute a citizen today and tomorrow. One third chance based on random odds today, one half tomorrow as one PR dies and one confirmed PR remains. 66% chance there.
If we don't claim, the odds are a much less forgiving 50/50. We should always claim here

More on that, I'd argue it's better not to kill exlight here? They weren't suspected before today other than my deepwolf whims and while their logic for a self-vote isn't sound I think mafia in a situation like this would avoid so much attention, although I'm not familiar with exlight's meta
If we're decided we should begin as soon as possible.

I think this part of the game may be the most revealing for serif. For the entire game up to this point, they had been only scarcely involved, quiet, not ruffling feathers, and staying out of others' attention for the most part. They expressed on multiple occasions that they were confused, demotivated, or otherwise unable to get into the game.

Then, as soon as the game got close again in the previous day phase, it was like serif turned on all the lights. Their approach completely changed yesterday, and I think it's because they started to believe that they could win the game as the last wolf. They were heavily involved in the discussion of mechanics, their tone changed from unsure to highly assertive, and their posts became much thicker.

When town is most motivated, serif is least motivated. When town is least motivated, serif is most motivated. That's a visible trend in their posts.

Spoiler

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

I feel slightly better knowing my last readslist had the correct PoE

Ok so the lynch today has to be between me, JJJ, or Serif

Has JJJ claimed? If not, I wouldn't be so hasty as it is technically possible the wolf claimed PR
I think having airtight mech here is very important.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Scum wouldn't claim a Power Role here if they can get counterclaimed, so they always claim vanilla.
Since both Power Roles claimed, then JJJ is stuck with a vanilla claim, regardless of it being true or not.

Knowing that the current PoE is JJJ, you, and me, what are your current reads on these slots?
I know you mentioned that you're townleaning my slot a bit due to me self-voting, so that means JJJ is your remaining PoE slot, right?

I'd still like if you ISO'ed him, if possible. I think seeing your points on him as well as your arguments will help us gather a more solid read.

Yeah, as I said in the post after that one

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

I don't really know how you expect me to ISO, there's no ISO function right?
JJJ, however, was not stuck with a vanilla claim, whether it was the correct play or not. People aren't rational. You cannot rely on something happening because it's the right thing to do


I've done things similar to this approach before but never with such a level of detail. I take problem with it because it falls apart when A: players lack familiarity with one another and B: players are not equally as capable
One of those has to be true to come to a conclusion. If players are equally as capable, they are comparable directly. With familiarity, you can normalize that even if they aren't equal and then compare. I've not met any of you before this game and I doubt we have equal capability here, I'm very much an IRL player so this backreading has never been my forte. It falls apart here. Comparing such different players with no point of reference will probably just waste time

With my background, I'm much more inclined towards more compact methods. Endgame casing tends to dilute the alignment of the player through boilerplate and makes it more about what player has the better presentation when ideally you should be analyzing what the player says for information about the player rather than their case target, which can be made more difficult by more content. It's almost paradoxical but keeping it to a player's fundamental ideas on another player is more useful. Anyone can go searching for reasons that someone is wolf. It is harder on the wolf to give the brief most important things because what's most important to the wolf will vary from what's most important from the town.

Sorry for posting my manifesto in response to this, I just don't agree with the concept presented here

There's a lot to discuss here. First of all, serif really gave ExLight a lot of grief for suggesting the last wolf would be forced to claim vanilla. That was a perfectly reasonable expectation from ExLight (because it was true that a wolf not claiming vanilla would be game-losing), but serif turned it into a platform to eventually end up voting them. That shade doesn't add up.

Spoiler

This, right here, is my issue with the proposed method. I'll explain in a moment, I'm getting a coffee

God sorry I'm here now. Let me continue from where I was

I disagree that it comes down to presentation.

I agree that usually the player seen as the one putting more effort usually plays a major role, but it's by resurfacing the posts throughout the game and discussing them that people can reach on a good game-winning conclusion.

I'm more often than not a mess in endgames, and it shows. With pressure my logic starts getting a bit all over the place, I get paranoid, my grammar worsens tenfold, etc - The point is my presentation becomes shit. Yet for some reason my late game town winrate is extremely high, with me almost never being the mislynch (I've been mislynched only twice out of D1).
Unrelated point -- You are doing none of these things right now. In an endgame. Supposedly as town.

I don't know exactly why, but I'd assume it's because of being able to bring resonating points, provide engagement with other players, and show effort - which is what a game, specially on -Lo needs. And this is mostly NAI? (It's usually a bit more towny cuz scum hesitates due to being afraid of accidentally framing themselves)
What you mention here is presentation.

You have two people you need to look into. Even if you don't know how to ISO (which could be done by checking our forum posts since I doubt any of the players has been engaging with the rest of the forums), skimming the thread for their posts shouldn't be too hard. Earlier you mentioned finding something about my tone off, yet you never tried finding the root of it. Why?
First of all -- for me, it is. I am not good at that as I explained in my post. I am an IRL player first and that makes my backreading very weak.
Second of all, it will always differ from player to play how strong their backreading is. You are able to find or manipulate posts on any player to come to the conclusion that they are wolf. If you're going into it with the bias that they are wolf, as presented in the method, It will almost certainly lead to nothing a majority of the time and cause the players to go in circles.

This is the sort of behavior that makes your slot look worse than JJJ, not his verbiage and overanalytical posts. How can we compare who has the better points if one of the people refuses to?
That's my exact point here! You can't. And I'm making sure you can't, because this is how we lose games. Avoiding talking to each other directly does nothing here. In my prior posts I mention asking smaller questions and having player's talk about their most distinct reads because those are harder to fake.

Also JJJ was always stuck with vanilla claim unless he decided to throw game.

If he had claimed Bodyguard we could've lynched him and Leesbra. If he had claimed cop we could've lynched him and Sugar Moon. The only claim that allows scum to gain tempo and potentially last longer is if they claim vanilla.
This doesn't disagree with what I said, which was in fact responding to this exact point. A bad play doesn't ever mean an impossible one. Players are irrational.

I talked about every single thing you said here. We are going in circles because I've decided to be detailed in my reasoning and this is without backreading. A big issue here is we need a neutral observer (the confirmed PRs) to mediate, and they are currently absent, but the bigger issue is the format itself. I've put my comments in red.

I'll still be busy today, but I think I already made contributed as much as I could. I'd prefer Serif toDay due to the almost no progression that slot had in the game, even as we now are down to 2 players. I also had previously mentioned the lesser points that bothered me about JJJ's slot, and is more of a mixed read. If anyone wants to try discussing them with me I'll be open to it, but I'm not sure I'll be able to give a timely reply.

If people are willing to trust me and townlock me I would recommend Serif first. It's a bit of another WIFOM argument in defense of my slot but if I were scum it would be suicidal to go into final 3 against JJJ instead of Serif, and I hope people realize that.

Can everyone start voting?

The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first.
Also, in the first quote, there's an awkward extension made into townlocking. While I don't like how it's gone for overconfident for wolf as I mentioned earlier to townlocking, it would be quite silly to WIFOM their own play. Not sure how I feel about that.

@serif

You’re not obligated to be on board with the strategy that Sugar Moon proposed. There are many ways to approach any situation. Still, if not that: then what?

The only process absolutely guaranteed to result in no correct answer is the absence of a process. As we stand, I’d vote you first on that basis. I don’t quite see how you are managing the situation (or know where you stand) even if on your own terms.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

That vote isn't real. It comes from an idea you supposedly abandoned, have shown no interest in to the point of trying to get yourself locktowned for the vote, and from the start was not mechanically sound as town.

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

Your vote is still on yourself. I was under the impression you had declined to continue with the whole self-vote mechanics strategy you opened the day with. Am I mistaken?

No, I'll stay on myself. If people decide to townlock me then they can simply not vote me, but if people still have doubts about my slot then me making into -Lo is too dangerous and should be dealt with here

It's things like these that is why JJJ could've claimed PR. Your play here could result in the only person you supposedly know as town, you, to die. You do not want that. It is in every citizen's best interest here to survive.
Your vote was placed to prevent a PR exec, correct? Then what's the point of it now?

Vote: ExLight
I think it's quite strange you don't fit your endgame selfmeta. You are, for the most part, confident, straightforward, and quite sure of yourself.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

Direct communication is great. It might be difficult since I am at work, but I can at least respond sporadically. My concern is that it's very unclear today, as of Day 4, where you stand. Your most recent post seems to imply suspicion of ExLight, but it's not stated concretely. So first, could you confirm or deny that interpretation? Is ExLight your biggest suspect at present? And regardless of ExLight, what is your impression of me?

That is correct. Your motivation seems to have good intent but I do not have much on you

I think this is a revealing progression too. serif didn't want to partake in Sugar Moon's strategy yesterday. That can be fine for town, but there are clearly reasons for wolves to do that. And these posts describe serif's reasons. They had decided they wanted to go after ExLight, and they didn't deviate for a moment from doing that. Sugar Moon suggested they make a case against me, and they instead completely ignored my existence. That's not a town mindset. There was no paranoia about me or even any thought about me from serif yesterday. When I asked in the last post, their reply was essentially nothing. Perhaps they didn't feel like they'd be able to make a good case against me, and they decided to put all of their energy into voting out ExLight instead.

And that is the kind of survivalism that serif accused me of today.

~~~

Now, I want to conclude this large post by saying the following. I have no desire to be mean to serif. That seems to have been an impression today, and that is not the intent. I quite like serif in this game! Even as a wolf, they've done a lot of good things and played respectfully. This isn't personal at all. They're just a wolf, and it's my responsibility to try the best I can to show that.

I know that's a huge post, @Leesbra, and it might be difficult to absorb. Please feel free to ask questions, and take your time. 

I will also provide a case to defend myself as soon as I am able. Hell, even if you don't trust me, you can trust the dead town before me. Icet absolutely nailed this game. MVP.

I know that's a huge post, @Leesbra, and it might be difficult to absorb. Please feel free to ask questions, and take your time.

I will also provide a case to defend myself as soon as I am able. Hell, even if you don't trust me, you can trust the dead town before me. Icet absolutely nailed this game. MVP.

Well, you certainly did put a lot of proof against Serif. And some of these points… make a lot of sense. The fact that they just outright said (if I read it right) that they didn’t want to read previous chat to get evidence?
…But I feel we need proof from both ends at the least, so i’ll wait for Serif to come along so I can see some evidence counterclaiming.

You never needed to vote anyone. You could've left it to the two confirmed towns that just shown up. There is no rule disallowing novoting and novoting was the correct play from town.
Avoid plain accusatory remarks like in the last sentence here. They're inflammatory and aim to derail the conversation from moving forward, so unless you want that please stick to call and response.

The notion that I should just not place at vote at all in a final five situation is very silly. Of course I am going to vote. I am going to allow myself to have a voice in the final decision.

It was anti town. It impeded progress. If you didn't vote we could be in a much better situation than today.
There's not much else to say there.

I think the best evidence that my hammer vote was not motivated by survival is that my survival wasn't really even threatened. I was one of the "vanilla three", but I think there was more pressure on both ExLight and serif. I probably didn't need to hammer to "survive". I just placed the vote that I thought was best at the last possible moment that I could wait to place it, and unfortunately here we are.

Yes, I said exactly this. It was for a better position today. I noted that you were not at risk and that's one of the reasons your vote is bad. If not scared for your own life I don't understand why town would ever make that vote


Large posts in below spoiler:

Spoiler

[/font][/size][/color]

The case against serif:

Spoiler

Spoiler

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Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

Sorry for my extended absence haha. I'm ready to start playing, I think I understand how the forum works now. Probably.

heya, have you caught up yet? EoD in 3 hours

There's around ~250 posts right? I should be able to do that. Instead of reading up on the thread I've been trying to figure out how this software works, I have the tech skills of a grandma 

To be completely honest I'm having a bit of trouble getting anything useful from this read up. Its early days and I don't know any of you very well yet so I can't really distinguish what is in character or not. I'll pay attention to some specifics for now that aren't as reliant on those factors and I'll let everyone know as things come up. Sorry about that

This was their introductory material, and they were very slow out of the gate. That happens sometimes, but it's very typical for wolves to have this kind of trepidation. Sometimes the hardest part of being a wolf is literally having any clue what to say. I have experienced that many times.
I'd prefer it if you didn't use my replacing in as a weapon. Replacing is hard. I was dropped into a gamestate knowing nothing. It was going to be slow out of the gate.

Spoiler

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Why is it bad that I asked Ex why they suddenly showed up? They weren't there. They get accused and they IMMEDIATELY pop up. This, in my eyes, could mean 2 sus things;
- Ex was lurking
Or
- Ex is mafia and their teammate attended them of being accused

So imo asking Ex why they suddenly showed up is a completely normal question. Popping up right away after being accused is either a coincidence, or pretty sus

Posts like this read to me as pretty townie. It's an overextension, I don't really agree with what's being said (wolfy pop-ins are real it's just I don't see this here) but I think a wolf would avoid making such an accusation if it didn't come from genuine emotion? I'd at least leave this slot alone today

This single post is the standout exception in serif's early play, where they provided a concrete read. It's a soft read with numerous caveats (to leave wiggle room to change it up later) -- I highlighted the caveats in orange. This was probably about pocketing Caitlin, and it may have been successful. Caitlin is a very vibes-oriented player, and serif might have hit the right note to capture Caitlin's vibe falsely.
I.. don't know how Caitlin plays. Or remember, at least. I've met her before but it has been a very, very long time.
You make these posts suggesting familiarity with the players around me that I simply do not have. I am a stranger here.

Spoiler

[/size]

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

I last checked the topic 20 minutes ago and around 100 posts have been made, jeez. I'll be here for EoD, let me just read up.

You have ten minutes I am afraid.

I thought I could read all the posts in that time. At the rate they are being generated? I am.. less certain. I'll skim and then join you all in realtime.

I don't really like Ex's reaction rn but I also liked their posts before

Bob if you're super confident on Ex I'll vote with you

I don't like this. Ex has been very productive from what I've seen and killing them this early based on eod whims seems like the risk reward really isnt there. Also the language of this post is very hedgy. Not good.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

This is the only place I'm comfortable today.

This is mostly serif's posts around EOD1. They arrived at the last minute and voted for Icet. It's not visible here, but this came after Icet had already cast suspicion on serif (see below):

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personally I disagree with TRing Serif atm, pretty sure my POE points to them

I haven't finished backreading everything yet but again JJJ / Calla are town for me due to the reasons stated.

I haven't really made a read on ExLight / Numbers but I do remember really liking their posts and Bob's towncore sounds good enough for me to sheep it, which also leans Bob as town to me

I remember liking Cait posting but don't remember why


This is ordered FYI
Town
JJJ
Calla

Town Lean
Bob
Exlight
Numbers
(ExLight and Numbers aren't ordered)

Town Null
Cait
Jamie

Scum Read
Luka

POE = Leesbra / Serif

I can be convinced to vote Jamie I think? I remember really liking their 1 post

So serif's vote for Icet was disguised "omgus" really. They accused Icet of something, but it was a nothingburger about them "hedging", which is the easiest accusation in the world for wolves to throw around. Town players are allowed to question themselves or lack confidence.

They spent essentially all of Day 1 avoiding the spotlight and not doing anything that would ruffle feathers or attract questions. Credit to Icet who seemed to have caught on well before the rest of us (really an all-around GOAT game by Icet).

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I really thought you were town D1 off the ATE. I also thought Jamie was town, but atp I liked them more than you so I was really only going to pivot to you if Bob was super confident.

After reevaling at night the ATE... I guess got weaker?

ATM I have Cait and Luka as locked Town. I'm willing to sheep Luka on Leesbra since they would stake their life on it.

Leaves me Serif / JJJ / Calla / Numbers / Ex

I said D1 how I think JJJ and Calla was town, and it hasn't changed for me. My POE is left with Serif / Ex / Numbers, and while I can see either Serif / Ex being town, Numbers is locked Mafia in every world.

Pretty sure GF is just ex / serif here

Cait is confirmed town unless RBer went on GF

Good lord, Icet was like three days ahead of all of us.

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God, sorry, I'm here. Let me have a look.

Oh, nevermind, it looks like wayyy too much happened in my absence for any analysis to be worth anything! That's fun. And entirely my fault. I'll go over the recent occurrences.

I can't lie this entire redcheck thing has been kind of demotivating, I think it's because I didn't really get what was going on until it was sorted.
I'm here, but from the looks of it the game is over and I don't have much to add if it isn't. Sorry about that.
I think it's best just to go forward from here.
Vote: Numbers

This is the initial Day 2 progression for serif. The last post is certainly on-the-nose for a wolf, but that's what happened lol. I mean, at face value, confirming a member of the wolf team should not be demotivating. That is what put us in a strong position in the first place. That's where additional analysis is most valuable.

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Hello all good afternoon. Sorry, I've been very busy but I'm here now.

While I quite like Serif's vibe and would definitely play with them again, I also have to consider that they haven't... given a read. On anyone. At least I don't remember one. I'd verify with an ISO, but I can't be digging around the thread at work.

I've given some reads but it's been quite awkward for me overall. I replaced in day 2, shown up in day 3 for there to be a redcheck, and well, now its day 4. or day 3? My entire mental clock has been thrown off.

I think my only reads, being on icet and Caitlin, have been less than ideal, first game reads and all.
Nice to meet you Sugar Moon.

Does anyone have a list of why the consensus town are consensus? I get the feeling I've fallen behind so it'd be much help.

serif continues to just barely engage the game from the perspective of looking for solutions. Even that last question could theoretically be a good one, but only if there is follow up and some kind of effort to figure out the game with it. I answered them myself to give serif a platform to try to get involved, and they didn't do anything with that ever again as far as I can see.

They also seem to have forgotten some of their own reads (like their defense of ExLight on Day 1), which is understandable when the reads aren't real in the first place.

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Hey everyone. EOD right?
I can't point to any singular post but Luka hasn't come across well to me once this game. Between myself and the person Luka is voting, I'd much rather vote Luka.
Vote: Luka
I'll hang around for now, hopefully until EoD but I might have to leave before then.
Anyone else here?

Oh good afternoon ExLight

Hi, good afternoon!
Unfortunately I feel like you're at the bottom of my readslists, care to bounce some ideas off with me?

Sorry, I really don't have much
I don't see anything redeemable from Luka, but if it isn't Luka I'm stumped.
If there's a deepwolf I'd currently say it's you, your high placement is backed from Numbers' spew but something just irks me about your slot. I couldn't say what

Based on the material that came before these posts, I have no idea why serif suspected Luka. This came out of nowhere. ExLight pointed this out too, and it's a good point. Indeed, serif was another person receiving votes if I recall correctly, so this was just self-preservation. Saying "this is a self-preservation vote" is the town approach. Making up a reason to suspect someone when you place the self-preservation vote is the wolf approach.

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Hey everyone. EOD right?
I can't point to any singular post but Luka hasn't come across well to me once this game. Between myself and the person Luka is voting, I'd much rather vote Luka.
Vote: Luka
I'll hang around for now, hopefully until EoD but I might have to leave before then.
Anyone else here?

Im incapable of explaining why but I dont like this slot

Luka eventually saw the light too.

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Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.

My impression had been that it doesn't provide a mathematical advantage. My brain is not kind to math this evening, so I haven't double-checked. Let me see if I can:

4 vs. 1 today
- If two power roles claim, they are virtually cleared and the mafia is forced to claim vanilla.
- Essentially this becomes 2 + [2 vs. 1], so the chance of a randomized correct answer is .33
- If the answer is wrong (.67 probability), the chance is .50 in final three (2 vs 1 with one clear).
I think this calls for a conjunctive probability:
- Probability of right first time = .33
- Probability of wrong first time and right in final three = .67 x .50 = .33
- Probability of wrong both times = .67 x .50 = .33

If nobody claims at all today, that implies a power role is not threatened (because a town power role about to be voted out mechanically must claim), so it'd still be one mafia among three options -- .33 chance today, and if wrong (.67) followed by .50 in final three when everyone claims.

If one power role claims under threat of elimination, four non-claims remain (so 1 in 4 or .25, but the second power role may then also claim if threatened, returning us to .33).

So it is the same? I am not sure I am doing this correctly. It's 2:00 AM lol.

If there is an advantage to mass claiming, it'd be that it alleviates a danger of prematurely hammering a power role before they claim or having a last minute panic vote on a power role at EOD. I think.

I very much welcome criticism if any of this logic is bad. I'm tired.

So it's 1v4 with 2 PRs and 2 citizens right?
if we claim today the goon has to claim citizen as otherwise we just execute both claims. We execute a citizen today and tomorrow. One third chance based on random odds today, one half tomorrow as one PR dies and one confirmed PR remains. 66% chance there.
If we don't claim, the odds are a much less forgiving 50/50. We should always claim here

More on that, I'd argue it's better not to kill exlight here? They weren't suspected before today other than my deepwolf whims and while their logic for a self-vote isn't sound I think mafia in a situation like this would avoid so much attention, although I'm not familiar with exlight's meta
If we're decided we should begin as soon as possible.

I think this part of the game may be the most revealing for serif. For the entire game up to this point, they had been only scarcely involved, quiet, not ruffling feathers, and staying out of others' attention for the most part. They expressed on multiple occasions that they were confused, demotivated, or otherwise unable to get into the game.

Then, as soon as the game got close again in the previous day phase, it was like serif turned on all the lights. Their approach completely changed yesterday, and I think it's because they started to believe that they could win the game as the last wolf. They were heavily involved in the discussion of mechanics, their tone changed from unsure to highly assertive, and their posts became much thicker.

When town is most motivated, serif is least motivated. When town is least motivated, serif is most motivated. That's a visible trend in their posts.

This is just me getting comfortable. I have had to meet so many new people for this game and we're somewhere where I strive there. Mech like that is where I am best.

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...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

I feel slightly better knowing my last readslist had the correct PoE

Ok so the lynch today has to be between me, JJJ, or Serif

Has JJJ claimed? If not, I wouldn't be so hasty as it is technically possible the wolf claimed PR
I think having airtight mech here is very important.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Scum wouldn't claim a Power Role here if they can get counterclaimed, so they always claim vanilla.
Since both Power Roles claimed, then JJJ is stuck with a vanilla claim, regardless of it being true or not.

Knowing that the current PoE is JJJ, you, and me, what are your current reads on these slots?
I know you mentioned that you're townleaning my slot a bit due to me self-voting, so that means JJJ is your remaining PoE slot, right?

I'd still like if you ISO'ed him, if possible. I think seeing your points on him as well as your arguments will help us gather a more solid read.

Yeah, as I said in the post after that one

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

I don't really know how you expect me to ISO, there's no ISO function right?
JJJ, however, was not stuck with a vanilla claim, whether it was the correct play or not. People aren't rational. You cannot rely on something happening because it's the right thing to do


I've done things similar to this approach before but never with such a level of detail. I take problem with it because it falls apart when A: players lack familiarity with one another and B: players are not equally as capable
One of those has to be true to come to a conclusion. If players are equally as capable, they are comparable directly. With familiarity, you can normalize that even if they aren't equal and then compare. I've not met any of you before this game and I doubt we have equal capability here, I'm very much an IRL player so this backreading has never been my forte. It falls apart here. Comparing such different players with no point of reference will probably just waste time

With my background, I'm much more inclined towards more compact methods. Endgame casing tends to dilute the alignment of the player through boilerplate and makes it more about what player has the better presentation when ideally you should be analyzing what the player says for information about the player rather than their case target, which can be made more difficult by more content. It's almost paradoxical but keeping it to a player's fundamental ideas on another player is more useful. Anyone can go searching for reasons that someone is wolf. It is harder on the wolf to give the brief most important things because what's most important to the wolf will vary from what's most important from the town.

Sorry for posting my manifesto in response to this, I just don't agree with the concept presented here

There's a lot to discuss here. First of all, serif really gave ExLight a lot of grief for suggesting the last wolf would be forced to claim vanilla. That was a perfectly reasonable expectation from ExLight (because it was true that a wolf not claiming vanilla would be game-losing), but serif turned it into a platform to eventually end up voting them. That shade doesn't add up.
I voted them because their approach didn't make sense as town. My goal there was to get ExLight to stop selfvoting but I did not like their slot on a whole. I never said the last wolf shouldn't claim vanilla. I said that sometimes players make irrational decisions. In retrospect, ExLight's selfvote was one of those irrational decisions. 
I said, with emphasis on this. I feel much more comfortable when everything is "airtight" as I put it. It was a safety thing and ExLight didn't care about safety and it irked me.

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This, right here, is my issue with the proposed method. I'll explain in a moment, I'm getting a coffee

God sorry I'm here now. Let me continue from where I was

I disagree that it comes down to presentation.

I agree that usually the player seen as the one putting more effort usually plays a major role, but it's by resurfacing the posts throughout the game and discussing them that people can reach on a good game-winning conclusion.

I'm more often than not a mess in endgames, and it shows. With pressure my logic starts getting a bit all over the place, I get paranoid, my grammar worsens tenfold, etc - The point is my presentation becomes shit. Yet for some reason my late game town winrate is extremely high, with me almost never being the mislynch (I've been mislynched only twice out of D1).
Unrelated point -- You are doing none of these things right now. In an endgame. Supposedly as town.

I don't know exactly why, but I'd assume it's because of being able to bring resonating points, provide engagement with other players, and show effort - which is what a game, specially on -Lo needs. And this is mostly NAI? (It's usually a bit more towny cuz scum hesitates due to being afraid of accidentally framing themselves)
What you mention here is presentation.

You have two people you need to look into. Even if you don't know how to ISO (which could be done by checking our forum posts since I doubt any of the players has been engaging with the rest of the forums), skimming the thread for their posts shouldn't be too hard. Earlier you mentioned finding something about my tone off, yet you never tried finding the root of it. Why?
First of all -- for me, it is. I am not good at that as I explained in my post. I am an IRL player first and that makes my backreading very weak.
Second of all, it will always differ from player to play how strong their backreading is. You are able to find or manipulate posts on any player to come to the conclusion that they are wolf. If you're going into it with the bias that they are wolf, as presented in the method, It will almost certainly lead to nothing a majority of the time and cause the players to go in circles.

This is the sort of behavior that makes your slot look worse than JJJ, not his verbiage and overanalytical posts. How can we compare who has the better points if one of the people refuses to?
That's my exact point here! You can't. And I'm making sure you can't, because this is how we lose games. Avoiding talking to each other directly does nothing here. In my prior posts I mention asking smaller questions and having player's talk about their most distinct reads because those are harder to fake.

Also JJJ was always stuck with vanilla claim unless he decided to throw game.

If he had claimed Bodyguard we could've lynched him and Leesbra. If he had claimed cop we could've lynched him and Sugar Moon. The only claim that allows scum to gain tempo and potentially last longer is if they claim vanilla.
This doesn't disagree with what I said, which was in fact responding to this exact point. A bad play doesn't ever mean an impossible one. Players are irrational.

I talked about every single thing you said here. We are going in circles because I've decided to be detailed in my reasoning and this is without backreading. A big issue here is we need a neutral observer (the confirmed PRs) to mediate, and they are currently absent, but the bigger issue is the format itself. I've put my comments in red.

I'll still be busy today, but I think I already made contributed as much as I could. I'd prefer Serif toDay due to the almost no progression that slot had in the game, even as we now are down to 2 players. I also had previously mentioned the lesser points that bothered me about JJJ's slot, and is more of a mixed read. If anyone wants to try discussing them with me I'll be open to it, but I'm not sure I'll be able to give a timely reply.

If people are willing to trust me and townlock me I would recommend Serif first. It's a bit of another WIFOM argument in defense of my slot but if I were scum it would be suicidal to go into final 3 against JJJ instead of Serif, and I hope people realize that.

Can everyone start voting?

The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first.
Also, in the first quote, there's an awkward extension made into townlocking. While I don't like how it's gone for overconfident for wolf as I mentioned earlier to townlocking, it would be quite silly to WIFOM their own play. Not sure how I feel about that.

@serif

You’re not obligated to be on board with the strategy that Sugar Moon proposed. There are many ways to approach any situation. Still, if not that: then what?

The only process absolutely guaranteed to result in no correct answer is the absence of a process. As we stand, I’d vote you first on that basis. I don’t quite see how you are managing the situation (or know where you stand) even if on your own terms.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

That vote isn't real. It comes from an idea you supposedly abandoned, have shown no interest in to the point of trying to get yourself locktowned for the vote, and from the start was not mechanically sound as town.

"The amount of confidence ExLight wants to exert on me falls off when they try to talk to anyone else. You seem quite sure on what you want to do, yet you aren't asking if you can start, you want everyone else to start first."

I'm... I'm literally the only person voting...

Your vote is still on yourself. I was under the impression you had declined to continue with the whole self-vote mechanics strategy you opened the day with. Am I mistaken?

No, I'll stay on myself. If people decide to townlock me then they can simply not vote me, but if people still have doubts about my slot then me making into -Lo is too dangerous and should be dealt with here

It's things like these that is why JJJ could've claimed PR. Your play here could result in the only person you supposedly know as town, you, to die. You do not want that. It is in every citizen's best interest here to survive.
Your vote was placed to prevent a PR exec, correct? Then what's the point of it now?

Vote: ExLight
I think it's quite strange you don't fit your endgame selfmeta. You are, for the most part, confident, straightforward, and quite sure of yourself.

I talk about that and brought it up earlier in this post. We should be conversing directly like this much more, anyways

Direct communication is great. It might be difficult since I am at work, but I can at least respond sporadically. My concern is that it's very unclear today, as of Day 4, where you stand. Your most recent post seems to imply suspicion of ExLight, but it's not stated concretely. So first, could you confirm or deny that interpretation? Is ExLight your biggest suspect at present? And regardless of ExLight, what is your impression of me?

That is correct. Your motivation seems to have good intent but I do not have much on you

I think this is a revealing progression too. serif didn't want to partake in Sugar Moon's strategy yesterday. That can be fine for town, but there are clearly reasons for wolves to do that. And these posts describe serif's reasons. They had decided they wanted to go after ExLight, and they didn't deviate for a moment from doing that. Sugar Moon suggested they make a case against me, and they instead completely ignored my existence. That's not a town mindset. There was no paranoia about me or even any thought about me from serif yesterday. When I asked in the last post, their reply was essentially nothing. Perhaps they didn't feel like they'd be able to make a good case against me, and they decided to put all of their energy into voting out ExLight instead.

And that is the kind of survivalism that serif accused me of today.

I was honest. I didn't have anything on you. I continued to not see anything on you. I was fully sure of myself on ExLight so I continued on that path. That was a mistake but it explains my tunnel vision. Of course I wouldn't have a good case on you. I had nothing on you until that hammer.

~~~

Now, I want to conclude this large post by saying the following. I have no desire to be mean to serif. That seems to have been an impression today, and that is not the intent. I quite like serif in this game! Even as a wolf, they've done a lot of good things and played respectfully. This isn't personal at all. They're just a wolf, and it's my responsibility to try the best I can to show that.
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Responses in red.
An issue a lot of people don't talk about in f3s like these is that both JJJ and I have the same win condition here. We both wish to survive and kill the other. This issue was around to a lesser extent in f5. 
I fundamentally disagree with wallposting like this in final situations. At all even. They're unwieldly, to interact with them is to put all your energy into them, and they dilute any actual thoughts down with every single post you can find. 
But they give the impression that you know what you're doing. A player cannot properly digest all that information so they will take it at face value. If you shoot enough bullets at a small target one of them is going to hit. 

These points are nothing points. They don't add anything or they just state something and attach a meaning to it without any explanation as to why.  It is wolfy to not say much. It is wolfy to say too much. It is wolfy to be tunnelled. None of these things are true in vacuum and you do nothing to actually back them up in the post.
This, right here, is the issue with Sugar Moon's method. As I stated would happen the player making the points was never analysed, only the player that was having points made against. It becomes a presentation game.

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I know that's a huge post, @Leesbra, and it might be difficult to absorb. Please feel free to ask questions, and take your time.

I will also provide a case to defend myself as soon as I am able. Hell, even if you don't trust me, you can trust the dead town before me. Icet absolutely nailed this game. MVP.

Well, you certainly did put a lot of proof against Serif. And some of these points… make a lot of sense. The fact that they just outright said (if I read it right) that they didn’t want to read previous chat to get evidence?
…But I feel we need proof from both ends at the least, so i’ll wait for Serif to come along so I can see some evidence counterclaiming.

You seem to have interpreted it as me being lazy. I refused to take part in Sugar Moon's method because I believe it harms town more than helps them. I am, as I said then, an IRL player at heart.

You have heard pretty much all I have to say about JJJ. I said it at the start of the day because I had already summarised all my thoughts. I stick to the big things. 

Now I've wallposted and I am exhausted. Please see my posts earlier today.
Thanks for playing with me, all

Also, JJJs championing of Sugar Moon's method past their death is kind of LAMIST. Felt like that needed said

The problem here is that the argument you've given is largely strategic and not really about town or mafia. "Sugar Moon's approach was a problem" or "wall posting in final three is a problem" or, if we reach back a day, "hammering is a problem" or "ExLight self-voting is a problem". The case you provided isn't about players' motivation, but it's about whether those decisions were "correct" or "anti-town" in your eyes -- all while acknowledging that people aren't always those things anyway. Indeed, your case against me today is much like your case against ExLight yesterday. It's opportunism more than it's proper analysis. You've also suggested that I was trying to "survive" yesterday and then gone back and said "it was suspicious because I didn't need to survive" -- it's all pretzel logic.

I've already explained my vote yesterday, and I don't know that posting a wall in final three needs to be explained. But I will: total clarity in communication is critical, and every player is going to have unique ways of achieving that. For me, it tends to be large posts. They really allow me to break down my arguments fully and make sure I am understood. That's what I do best, and I will continue doing it. Not everyone has to play that way.