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Game Over on Round 5 Day

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...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Scum wouldn't claim a Power Role here if they can get counterclaimed, so they always claim vanilla.
Since both Power Roles claimed, then JJJ is stuck with a vanilla claim, regardless of it being true or not.

Knowing that the current PoE is JJJ, you, and me, what are your current reads on these slots?
I know you mentioned that you're townleaning my slot a bit due to me self-voting, so that means JJJ is your remaining PoE slot, right?

I'd still like if you ISO'ed him, if possible. I think seeing your points on him as well as your arguments will help us gather a more solid read.

I want to propose the following, since we're never going to be stronger than we are today (with two clears and two secret supports vs one wolf):

- Serif pretends that she's left tomorrow with JJJ and one PR. JJJ is therefore definitely a wolf to her, and she goes through the game to make the best wolf case she can
- JJJ does the same for ExLight
- ExLight cases Serif

Leesbra and I will be here to help/feedback/rubber duck. This is less work for each of you than trying to decide between two people. It gives Leesbra and me good content to compare you all. It does hinge on all three of you wanting to do it.

I'm cop.

Well, other role claimed, sounds about time for me to. Bodyguard.

I want you to know that you should feel ok letting me die tonight. You've been here from the start, you have that new player energy, I would love to cheer you on from deadchat tomorrow!

Honestly, that is kinda true. At this point it’s either you as a sort of safer Vanilla (since we cannot get past D5, and Godfather is immune to cop), or me who, yeah, could keep a vanilla from dying, but if the stances favor a role death why would they go after vanilla?

If you end up being targeted, you’ve done a good job getting us through.
If I end up being targeted, I believe you and the rest of the townies here can get us through.

I want to propose the following, since we're never going to be stronger than we are today (with two clears and two secret supports vs one wolf):

- Serif pretends that she's left tomorrow with JJJ and one PR. JJJ is therefore definitely a wolf to her, and she goes through the game to make the best wolf case she can
- JJJ does the same for ExLight
- ExLight cases Serif

Leesbra and I will be here to help/feedback/rubber duck. This is less work for each of you than trying to decide between two people. It gives Leesbra and me good content to compare you all. It does hinge on all three of you wanting to do it.

What does rubber duck mean here lol

I am a bit busy today and will be a bit busy tomorrow, so I'm not sure how elaborate my analysis on serif will be but for now I think I can explain a bit more why Serif on the bottom of my lists.

One thing that caught my attention was them defending my slot D1 when I was leading the wagons, which came off as an attempt to distance from my mislynch. They mentioned me being "very productive", but I'm aware that I wasn't and that my content was very underwhelming - specially after rereading it. There were also no comments on the 1x1s such as Cait-Luka and JJJ-Calla, or any other interaction other than a single stance of Cait-me really. In the end they also voted in a somewhat safe wagon, that was at no risk of getting lynched, which is something that would be somewhat expected from scum - as opposed to JJJ placing a key vote on that day's mislynch (Jamie).

On the following days there was barely any contribution from Serif. Most of their messages are promises of catching up and never doing it, and even being "demotivated" by the red check on Numbers.

The few suspicions they seem to cast on players seem to also ignore their previous reads and be almost random. At a few points they asked people to explain to them who was the overall towncore consensus to kinda sheep it, which felt like a lack of interest in scumhunting and a way of understanding the gamestate better from a scum. This resulted in some weird things, like them suddenly moving me to a scumlean with a weak reasoning such as "tone" or "vibes" despite them hard defending me at EoD - even though I had started gaining traction and being much more productive than I was, or a sudden vote on luka without any comments on the posts of the people that mentioned townreading that slot. Those prompted me prodding them asking for their early reads on other days, which honestly got an unsatisfactory reply.

I am vanilla.

I think that’s an interesting idea, Sugar Moon, and I will look into it as soon as I have a chance. It’s similar to a different exercise called the “distrustfall” used sometimes in Syndicate circles, so I have a good idea how to approach it (while still being fair to ExLight).

Separate note I wanted to express: there seems to be a jarring separation between serif’s reads awareness (pretty low) and their mechanics awareness (quite high if today is an indication). That makes me question the authenticity of their standing as the “aloof tagalong”, if you will. I have been mostly locked in on the game from the start and could barely generate the brainpower to engage mechanics.

I'm pressed for time, but I'd like to at least try to honor Sugar Moon's suggestion. It's a good idea.

To ensure there is total clarity about this post, this is a case that assumes ExLight is mafia and describes how that can work. That should not be interpreted as a concrete read that I am making. This is a hypothetical, and I think it will be valuable for me to put forth the effort to consider it.

I'm going to go more or less post-by-post, and I will allow myself to nitpick. That's the point. *however, I will also mark everything that I feel is nitpicky of me with an ***asterisk***.

Spoiler

heya Cait

please don't tunnel on me again cait, I'm town again

If there is an established trend for Cait to read ExLight as mafia and tunnel, then opening the game with this places immediate guilty-trippy pleasure in her lap to avoid that repeating itself. The motive for a wolf ExLight is self-evident.

***nitpick***

Spoiler

I do want to test the voting system though and I will

Vote: Michi

to do so
sup buddy been a while

This initial vote is for a player who hadn't arrived yet and offers little pressure value. It can be lighthearted, but that's irrelevant to alignment.

Spoiler

Since people ignored it I'll try ask again in a more direct manner.

I thought Bob was a Number's alt, but it seems not. Does anyone remember whose alt it was? Maybe Laurentus'?

That does not ring a bell, which is weird

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the second part, but I'm not sure how Bob could be an alt of a different player in the same game (or why that would have been an initial belief). This was also a reiteration of a previous question, so ExLight showed some consistent interest in the existence of GloriousBob before their Night 1 demise. Maybe there's a reason for that.

***nitpick***

Spoiler

I guess it's more of a difference in interpretation cuz you seem certain of your wording.

Dunno, just don't find not-voting to be characteristic of anything. In any case, why point out that you find people not voting to be townie before more reactions has happened?

I'm not sure I understand the last question in context (it seems like quite a specific expectation to have of what Luka should be doing with RVS-period strategy -- could be fudged).

Spoiler

Some of the squad here has indicated town reading ExLight. I'd appreciate hearing more about why that is. @Caitlinuwu @Luka I believe each of you apply.

What's your read on me?
Accurate one and Gun to the head one

I don't quite have a read on you. You're null, which is why I asked. Their knowledge of you might be helpful to me, since I am not getting an initial impression. Put another way: I don't really take issue with what you have posted, but I also don't have any reason to believe what you've posted is town-indicative. To borrow the local language, you haven't "town-told" in my eyes.

If I had to provide a gun-to-head read without null as an option, I'd say town. That's more a reflection of raw probability than any actual perspective of your posts though.

Huh, I was expecting you to be setting up undermining their reads as a way to throw shade at me but your reply went on the opposite direction funny enough.

Also a very specific expectation for what I might be doing strategically. I wouldn't be surprised to find moments like this to be fake reads/engagement. I basically provided a vague null read and ExLight's questions ended anyway.

Spoiler

Hmm, I wanna create more talking, so I'll just throw myself out here (...)

townie

Kind of an uninspired micro read.

***nitpick***

Spoiler

grumble why did it not break lines

Some of the squad here has indicated town reading ExLight. I'd appreciate hearing more about why that is. @Caitlinuwu @Luka I believe each of you apply.

Scum would’ve voted cait to get early town cred from me

bit of a bold claim considering you have never seen me roll scum

Don't love this reaction to Luka either

It just feels kinda... out of place? For this, the earlier pop-in and the only basis of trusting ExLight being a vibe read I'll try my chance here (or at Numbers, probably)

Vote: ExLight

Caitlin seems like an intuition-driven player and could have just been right in this moment.

Spoiler

Some of the squad here has indicated town reading ExLight. I'd appreciate hearing more about why that is. @Caitlinuwu @Luka I believe each of you apply.

What's your read on me?
Accurate one and Gun to the head one

Honestly, ExLight's pop-in here is underwhelming. Clearly, they read some of the chat but they only ask about whose alt Bob is (when that was said) and ask this

No reads at all

My reads are mainly townleans and nulls on the inactive people. I'm laying back waiting for some proper action to happen.

The game is very slow and me prodding a player I consider of interest is my way of forming a better read on them, I'm not sure why that's "underwhelming" when it isn't even addressed at you.
I'm not sure why you want me to just vomit fluff instead of trying to gather info the way I consider best. If you want me to update or remind you of them you can always just ask me instead of throwing shade?

This one is a little much. Caitlin made a base assessment of ExLight's interaction with me, and there's no reason it has to be "addressed to her" for her to perceive it as "underwhelming".

Spoiler

I have struggled to develop an impression about ExLight. Their posts are just kind of existent. They don't stand out to me or make me feel anything. It's difficult to convey a read like that without it seeming insulting, so I hope it's not interpreted that way. All contributions are appreciated.

well, talk to me then
ask me my opinion on something so I have a lead on what to work with since nothing is really raising a red flag to me

I can do that.

Earlier you voted for Jamie and then unvoted after they had made a contribution. First question: was the original vote inspired by actual suspicion? Second question: when you liked my expression of a ping on Jamie after that, what did you mean by that?

The vote was originally on Michi, which was mainly RVS.
He (Michi) doesn't really have a good history with being active in games, which I despite fairly a bit. I think outta like 5 games I played with them they had under 20 posts or subbed out in literally every game but one. I saw he had made a few fluff posts, so by voting I personally expected a reaction from him to see if he would had changed his inactive behavior and was willing to engage a bit.

Jamie is a friend of mine, since he's been part of the new gen on bulba. Him subbing in for Michi's slot makes him a person of interest because I know he's usually active and was interested in playing in new communities. I felt like this being his first outside game could generate some interesting response, since I'd expect him to try his hardest which could end up giving alignment tells he usually wouldn't give. So voting him ended up being a mix of following up the Michi vote + me having more meta on him than on most people + wanting to see if it would cause any sort of reactions.

I'm a bit surprised he's been this low activity and somewhat shallow with his posts though.

The conclusions drawn in this material may be too null to justify the number of words used to arrive at them. Could be manufactured.

***nitpick***

Spoiler

Actually, Cait is Null to me
Like I said I don't think her reaction was AI and I get mixed feelings from the mini beef with Luka and sudden shade at me

Null reading Cait is a little surprising given the depths of their interactions up to this point (and their familiarity with each other). Fence-sitting.

Spoiler

I would probably be interested in seeing a Jamie x Cait leading wagons since they could give interesting reactions

Numbers comments are very reasonable. NAI but very reasonable so I guess I'm mindmelding a bit with him.

Vote: Caitlinuwu
Correct me if I’m wrong, but earlier you were talking about keeping post count at a level so you could respond if anything wacky happened. But you are now 3 off cap, this struck me as quite odd. Also, you were pointing fingers at my good pal ExLight and I can say he is more at his town meta now than his scum play. The earlier argument also felt a little too defensive and to me feels you are hiding something.

Counterpoint me being a bit quiet is NAI if I'm a bit burned out, maybe even leaning to my scum meta.

I find it a bit weird you think is my town meta when in U-choose I was scum and played similarly low-energy on D1. Did me panicking in D&D mafia really make that much of an impression?

Vote: JamieIsBored

Wagoning for "reactions" at this point is pretty meh. Not thrilled with promoting a Cait wagon in general here.

Spoiler

she's literally tunneling on me again i cant even

Given the prior null read and willingness to wagon, this ought not come as a surprise.

***nitpick***

Spoiler

Vote: GloriousBob

if Numbers is coherent with their list they vote Cait and the wagons become threeway 2 votes tie among the people I have null/scum so that really works out for me

Probably an important post given the presence of GloriousBob (night 1 kill) and Numbers (mafia). If nothing else, here's concrete evidence that ExLight wanted Bob removed from the game. The bit about Numbers is more ***nitpick***, but celebrating a three-way tie at two votes is not ideal. That's ripe for mafia manipulation.

Spoiler

What is ExLight doing this eod?

What is ExLight doing this eod?

@ExLight

apparently writing messages and being notified 28 others were posted in the meanwhile

Perhaps there's a vibe issue with ExLight and that ATE. Feels awkward thrown into the EOD pace.

I'm surprised to see you voting me, why's that?

kinda wolfy

Vote: ExLight

I'm surprised to see you voting me, why's that?

kinda wolfy

me or luka?
he avoided interacting with me or giving a read on me all game and suddenly dropped a vote on me after cait's "vote" with less than 10 min remaining

I don't think it's wolfy to find it weird nor ask why

Vote: ExLight

gross
so much for being your top townread huh

Spoiler

This is a slice of some relevant moments in the period of EOD1, and I think it might be the worst period of the game for ExLight. I thought he looked off during this period (you see my comments about this in the spoiler as well as GloriousBob's). If I recall, Caitlin was also bugged. ExLight seemed to be disjointed from the flow and vibe of the game here, and that's important when EOD1 was the most vibey part of the game. In the old days I might have called this "beep boop" -- when someone kinda gets robotic in the midst of a vibe-filled thread climate. "I'm surprised to see you voting me. Why's that?" is an example of something that reads that way to me.

At least so far, this feels the least nitpicky among the points I have made in this review.

Spoiler

Vote: ExLight

whatever it's always the same bullshit this is why I hate playing out of bulba/ZD

hope this at least gives you all some decent vote interactions to work with because some are obviously bizarre

I said earlier in the game that I refuse to award town credit for appeal-to-emotion moments, and I will reiterate that now. Self-voting, or even volunteering to be self-voted "for the greater good" are wifom plays that do not indicate alignment. They don't make ExLight mafia, but nor are they town indicative. This is less a point against them and just an opportunity for me to re-emphasize the importance of that.

Spoiler

legacy jamie is probably town

icet/bob/luka has one scum

keep eyes on numbers

The "keep eyes on numbers" is kinda meaningless when stuck underneath a pile of three mafia suspects. Vaguely fourth-most suspicious?

***nitpick***

Spoiler

my slot now looks dogshit with these flips I will scream

I'm not actually sure why this would be the case, so perhaps this is a revealing mindset (e.g., wanting to get out in front of "looking bad").

***nitpick***

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I actually think this is a good place to stop. After this point, the game became highly mechanical and far less behavioral (once Icet outed their action on Day 2). This post is also too big already. I will give some cliff notes impressions in a separate post.

The end of that post got screwed up with the spoilers. Here's the continuation:

Spoiler

Vote: GloriousBob

if Numbers is coherent with their list they vote Cait and the wagons become threeway 2 votes tie among the people I have null/scum so that really works out for me

Probably an important post given the presence of GloriousBob (night 1 kill) and Numbers (mafia). If nothing else, here's concrete evidence that ExLight wanted Bob removed from the game. The bit about Numbers is more ***nitpick***, but celebrating a three-way tie at two votes is not ideal. That's ripe for mafia manipulation.

Spoiler

What is ExLight doing this eod?

What is ExLight doing this eod?

@ExLight

apparently writing messages and being notified 28 others were posted in the meanwhile

Perhaps there's a vibe issue with ExLight and that ATE. Feels awkward thrown into the EOD pace.

I'm surprised to see you voting me, why's that?

kinda wolfy

Vote: ExLight

I'm surprised to see you voting me, why's that?

kinda wolfy

me or luka?
he avoided interacting with me or giving a read on me all game and suddenly dropped a vote on me after cait's "vote" with less than 10 min remaining

I don't think it's wolfy to find it weird nor ask why

Vote: ExLight

gross
so much for being your top townread huh

This is a slice of some relevant moments in the period of EOD1, and I think it might be the worst period of the game for ExLight. I thought he looked off during this period (you see my comments about this in the spoiler as well as GloriousBob's). If I recall, Caitlin was also bugged. ExLight seemed to be disjointed from the flow and vibe of the game here, and that's important when EOD1 was the most vibey part of the game. In the old days I might have called this "beep boop" -- when someone kinda gets robotic in the midst of a vibe-filled thread climate. "I'm surprised to see you voting me. Why's that?" is an example of something that reads that way to me.

At least so far, this feels the least nitpicky among the points I have made in this review.

Spoiler

Vote: ExLight

whatever it's always the same bullshit this is why I hate playing out of bulba/ZD

hope this at least gives you all some decent vote interactions to work with because some are obviously bizarre

I said earlier in the game that I refuse to award town credit for appeal-to-emotion moments, and I will reiterate that now. Self-voting, or even volunteering to be self-voted "for the greater good" are wifom plays that do not indicate alignment. They don't make ExLight mafia, but nor are they town indicative. This is less a point against them and just an opportunity for me to re-emphasize the importance of that.

Spoiler

legacy jamie is probably town

icet/bob/luka has one scum

keep eyes on numbers

The "keep eyes on numbers" is kinda meaningless when stuck underneath a pile of three mafia suspects. Vaguely fourth-most suspicious?

***nitpick***

Spoiler

my slot now looks dogshit with these flips I will scream

I'm not actually sure why this would be the case, so perhaps this is a revealing mindset (e.g., wanting to get out in front of "looking bad").

***nitpick***

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

I actually think this is a good place to stop. After this point, the game became highly mechanical and far less behavioral (once Icet outed their action on Day 2). This post is also too big already. I will give some cliff notes impressions in a separate post.

Cliff notes:

As you can see, I had to nitpick often about ExLight. If they're mafia, that's to their credit.

However, there are a few things that at least had my interest beyond a level of "forcing myself to arrive at a mafia read".

~ ExLight's read on Caitlin seemed pretty uninspired. They had a lot of dealings with each other, and Ex was very slow to move the needle at all. Caitlin is still the game's most active player by post-count, and that was more evident than ever on Day 1. There was ample material to assess.

~ ExLight's EOD1 was off. You can see my discussion of that in my previous post with the paragraph beginning with "This is a slice of some relevant..." --> this period more than any is a valid reason to read ExLight as mafia, I think.

Necessary caveats:

This exercise demanded that I find gripes, so that's what I did. There are probably counterarguments for at least some of what I said, but that wasn't the point here.

The down side of this exercise is that it encourages confirmation-bias. I would greatly value input from @Leesbra and @Sugar Moon about anything I had to say in there.

JaggedJimmyJay: "I'm pressed for time"

Also JaggedJimmyJay: "But let me write a whole dissertation right quick"

JaggedJimmyJay: "I'm pressed for time"

Also JaggedJimmyJay: "But let me write a whole dissertation right quick"

I was just about to say the same 

Thanks JJJ, I'll now go and read it.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Scum wouldn't claim a Power Role here if they can get counterclaimed, so they always claim vanilla.
Since both Power Roles claimed, then JJJ is stuck with a vanilla claim, regardless of it being true or not.

Knowing that the current PoE is JJJ, you, and me, what are your current reads on these slots?
I know you mentioned that you're townleaning my slot a bit due to me self-voting, so that means JJJ is your remaining PoE slot, right?

I'd still like if you ISO'ed him, if possible. I think seeing your points on him as well as your arguments will help us gather a more solid read.

Yeah, as I said in the post after that one

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

I don't really know how you expect me to ISO, there's no ISO function right?
JJJ, however, was not stuck with a vanilla claim, whether it was the correct play or not. People aren't rational. You cannot rely on something happening because it's the right thing to do


I've done things similar to this approach before but never with such a level of detail. I take problem with it because it falls apart when A: players lack familiarity with one another and B: players are not equally as capable
One of those has to be true to come to a conclusion. If players are equally as capable, they are comparable directly. With familiarity, you can normalize that even if they aren't equal and then compare. I've not met any of you before this game and I doubt we have equal capability here, I'm very much an IRL player so this backreading has never been my forte. It falls apart here. Comparing such different players with no point of reference will probably just waste time

With my background, I'm much more inclined towards more compact methods. Endgame casing tends to dilute the alignment of the player through boilerplate and makes it more about what player has the better presentation when ideally you should be analyzing what the player says for information about the player rather than their case target, which can be made more difficult by more content. It's almost paradoxical but keeping it to a player's fundamental ideas on another player is more useful. Anyone can go searching for reasons that someone is wolf. It is harder on the wolf to give the brief most important things because what's most important to the wolf will vary from what's most important from the town.

Sorry for posting my manifesto in response to this, I just don't agree with the concept presented here

I disagree that it comes down to presentation.

I agree that usually the player seen as the one putting more effort usually plays a major role, but it's by resurfacing the posts throughout the game and discussing them that people can reach on a good game-winning conclusion.

I'm more often than not a mess in endgames, and it shows. With pressure my logic starts getting a bit all over the place, I get paranoid, my grammar worsens tenfold, etc - The point is my presentation becomes shit. Yet for some reason my late game town winrate is extremely high, with me almost never being the mislynch (I've been mislynched only twice out of D1).

I don't know exactly why, but I'd assume it's because of being able to bring resonating points, provide engagement with other players, and show effort - which is what a game, specially on -Lo needs. And this is mostly NAI? (It's usually a bit more towny cuz scum hesitates due to being afraid of accidentally framing themselves)

You have two people you need to look into. Even if you don't know how to ISO (which could be done by checking our forum posts since I doubt any of the players has been engaging with the rest of the forums), skimming the thread for their posts shouldn't be too hard. Earlier you mentioned finding something about my tone off, yet you never tried finding the root of it. Why?

This is the sort of behavior that makes your slot look worse than JJJ, not his verbiage and overanalytical posts. How can we compare who has the better points if one of the people refuses to?

Also JJJ was always stuck with vanilla claim unless he decided to throw game.

If he had claimed Bodyguard we could've lynched him and Leesbra. If he had claimed cop we could've lynched him and Sugar Moon. The only claim that allows scum to gain tempo and potentially last longer is if they claim vanilla.

I'll still be busy today, but I think I already made contributed as much as I could. I'd prefer Serif toDay due to the almost no progression that slot had in the game, even as we now are down to 2 players. I also had previously mentioned the lesser points that bothered me about JJJ's slot, and is more of a mixed read. If anyone wants to try discussing them with me I'll be open to it, but I'm not sure I'll be able to give a timely reply.

If people are willing to trust me and townlock me I would recommend Serif first. It's a bit of another WIFOM argument in defense of my slot but if I were scum it would be suicidal to go into final 3 against JJJ instead of Serif, and I hope people realize that.