Doc do you have any remarks or analysis or
You know that feeling when you think you've solved the puzzle, and then you grab the last piece, and it doesn't fit, and then you look closer and not only is it not even the right color but it's actually a Lego brick, and now that you're looking at the
'solved puzzle' it's actually a chaotic mess with 'Pepe Silvia' scrawled all over it like you're a goddamn lunatic?
That's where I was at last EOD. I've tunneled in
so hard on TGN and Vroendal being 'obvious scumbuds' that now that that's almost assuredly not the case I am basically totally fucking lost and I've got to rebuild everything from the ground up...or at least EOD1. Which is going to be a bitch, but whatever, I guess that's what I'll spend tomorrow doing.
For now, I'm working on the theory that scum essentially knew this was their last, best chance to drive a TGN mislynch yesterday, and I should thus assume that two or possibly even all of them hopped on the wagon yesterday. If Kane gets lynched and flips scum, then I think we can be reasonably confident that it was
all three on the TGN wagon yesterday, since that would be the only way to
ensure a mislynch against the 6 votes he'd picked up yesterday.
If that's the case, that would basically dictate that suspicion should fall
either on Minish
or Exlight, as the two people who have been most in the driver's seat pushing gameplay and opinion forward, particularly considering the often-voiced fear/suspicion that someone is powerwolfing hard. Whoever the fourth wolf would be (assuming my prior axioms of 1) Kane is scum, 2) all scum voted for TGN D4 and 3) one of either Minish or Exlight is scum are all true, which is bold) would then probably be either Wintermoot or Gerrick.
This is all
very provisional and
even more circumstantial; I'll need to do some much more robust vote analysis - including possible votes that were made to try and cement a wagon as among the frontrunners, then withdrawn before EOD, which we seem to have neglected in most of our vote analysis - to work out a viable PoE route.
But I'm trying to lay my cards out on the table so people can tell me if my theory is stupid. Time to ISO Kane and see if I can pick up anything else that bears fruit.
45 minutes and his 25 posts later, the only thing that's really tripping me up - but is tripping me up very hard - in his conduct from the last day is this line. There's other stuff too; a long-term early focus on BSR
(he says, completely ignoring his own singleminded focus on Vro-TGN), the
very sus
'prepare a defense early' post and
an exceptionally uninformative reads list, but the line I quote below just trips me up because that's precisely the sort of thing I would do and have done as scum.
If TGN is voted off and ends up being town than I will not post in this thread the next day to make any defense (if I am still suspicious).
He has done so; not word one from him in this day phase in self-defense. So it's not like he lied about that.
But
to my mind it feels like he knew exactly which way it was going to flip, and prepared for it with a hail-Mary 'well if I cause town to be mislynched, I'm so guilty about it that I'm obviously not scum'. The reason this seems like a scum move to me because
of course scum will know when someone is gonna be mislynched; it's every time someone gets lynched that isn't one of them, and they can abuse this to be 'obviously opposed' to what eventually turn out to be mislynches that then helps them build brownie points with town. It's the sort of thing I was trying to drive when I was trying to push either Vro or Lau to lynch each other on D2 last game while still keeping my hands clean from ever
actually being on either wagon. Obviously Kane didn't have that luxury this time round, but on the other hand he had the supreme NAI excuse of 'my head was on the chopping block, I did what I had to do to survive'.
But to be perfectly candid, I'm not sure about this vote. There's a very real chance I'm doing the exact same thing I did with Vro-TGN, where I formed a theory, developed it to a 'solved state', then tunneled in onto it as being Obviously The Correct Answer.
But I'm as sure as I'll probably
get to be within the next 6ish hours, and that's when EOD hits (assuming Lau's gonna close the thread roughly 48 hours after he reopened it).
Vote: Kanefuck this post took 2 hours aaaaaagh