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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

I suppose if I was to go with what I can see right now my two closest to scum reads would be:

Vro. Their defense this day has been less about their own innocence and more casting doubt on anyone elses logic. It feels like someone who's just trying to show distrust in other people.

I wasn't arguing my own innocence until a point when arguing for it was the timely action to take. Proceeding with the assumption that I get voted up, I find it invaluable to at least get a start on all my current reads or suspicions, so yes I did cast my own doubts. If by your last sentence you meant that I'm trying to show my own distrust in other people, my response is that I say it how I see it, if I see a possible lead I'll usually go for it. If you meant that I was sowing distrust, I wasn't purposefully, I would say that I found justifiable wariness and instilling that quality very good to prevent wolves taking over from within.

TGN - Why do you do this to me... I do not feel comfortable attempting to read.

that's it...
I just make you uncomfortable?
pls just read me, please. I need to know what the masses think of me

I cri ;-;
Your behavior always makes me want to think you're town, because no serious wolf would do that, right? The problem is you aren't a serious wolf, I genuinely don't know what to make of how you're playing, I see no real difference from last game. On a different note though I've been traumatized from last game, I find it actually more encouraging that no one is exactly defending you this game from what I remember, but I doubt the wolves would adopt the same strategy anyway.

Ok thanks for this explanation. Can you explain the application in your wagonomics reasoning for your Hapi vote then?

Wanting multiple wagons in order to be able to compare/contrast voting patterns between them (or observe a lack thereof).
Unless scum absolutely fucks up, there's about 90% odds D1 will be a mislynch. Paired with the fact that - as I noted earlier - on D1, townie lives are relatively low value, that suggests that regardless of whether you're particularly convinced someone's scum or not - and you'll rarely be genuinely convinced someone is scum D1 unless they actually legit fucked up - you might as well make sure that there's at least 2 reasonably-sized wagons going for the purposes of accumulating useful information.
To use an analogy, D1 (and likely D2) wagonomics operates on much the same basis as WWII USSR: just like they traded land for time to blunt Barbarossa, so too must town necessarily trade townie lives for information with which they can root out scum.
So: D1, I make the wagonomics call on the basis of Most Viable Second Wagon, and Hapi died as a result. Which, while unfortunate* because she turned out to be town, was the mathematically likely outcome anyway. But as far as I'm concerned, if we trade a couple of mislynched townies in exchange for being able to halve-or-better our list of scumspects, that's a good trade. I'd do it again**.

*Again, the only reason I'm giving out the future-game-D1-pass for that is because I really don't want the perception that I have some kind of vendetta against her since I keep fucking doing it and consequently feel kind of guilty about it.
**...in the sense of 'I'd make that trade again', not 'I'm gonna D1 hammer lynch Hapi again'.

Might as well make my own minor reads list at this point.

Reads List

Town Core -
Nyght - Behavior, reasoning, and tone very highly indicative of towniness. If Nyght's a wolf I have never been more thoroughly bamboozled.

Town Leans -
Red Mones - Behavior highly indicative of town imo, making very reasonable defenses for his actions, not afraid to have a stand-alone controversial opinion.
Gerrick - Traditional town Gerrick activity level, early and insightful reads list.
Wischland - Started off with not much original line of thought, explained herself for that well, has behaved similarly to her last game here. Provides insightful reasoning when prompted.
cozmikrae - Reasoning follows what I believe is a townie line of thinking. Making questionable susses but aligns with what I hesitantly expect from a newer player.

Nulls -
Melehan - Chaotic probing, yet what I feel are town motivated reads and analysis, need more knowledge about to state a town lean for certain.
Ruguo - Would almost put them in town leans, except I can't shake the nagging feeling that the admittedly townie line of thought they are presenting would be easy for them to fake with their playstyle and talent. Sees things rather differently from the majority, which I like.
Wintermoot - I never have any idea how to read Moot. Line of thought very similar to last game's, branching off on vanity wagon again, what I feel is townie reasoning presented with flaws, yet the lower participation makes it hard to be more sure of his alignment.
Kane - Has made one decent size post, would prefer to see his promised second decent-sized post before making any judgments. Want to put him in town leans.
Doc - Admittedly more scum-hunting and posting than last game which is promising, yet an underdeveloped vote (surrounded by otherwise good reasoning) which I admittedly have a personal bias against prevents me from moving him up.
Anubhav - Need more participation in the game to make a read.
Sapphiron - Has had maybe one good post but has otherwise dipped, which at D2 is disappointing and a detriment to town. May threaten again.
Alexander - I do not think a wolf would be this disengaged, but with absolutely no sign that he even has opened this thread his activity may be NAI.
ENE - Has spoken once or twice, would greatly like to hear his personal line's of thinking.
TGN - Why do you do this to me... I do not feel comfortable attempting to read.
Minish - Always has excellent reasoning and a great town tone, which makes her suggestion all the more worrying to me personally. Presents a scenario which at worst will reveal a power role to the wolves, at best presents a case of WIFOM later on making it unnecessary and/or dangerous.
Ogun - ALWAYS sounds sus, has presented inconsistent logic, which unfortunately may be NAI. Has posted at a better rate.
BraveSirRobin - Has appeared to be disengaged, has emerged with a decent post with several problems instantly shot down by Silv. If Michi is a wolf I believe BSR has higher chance of being a wolf.

Scum Leans -
Michi - Started off with a slight meta sus, have been very unsatisfied by his responses, still can't shake the worry that many experienced players who have played with Michi are uncomfortable with his vote and that his activity at this point may speak more to a disengaged town than a saved wolf. Would be up for lynching at least for info if no new leads are presented.

If you have a question about this list I will attempt to answer to your satisfaction. In short, the lynches I personally am slightly more comfortable with atm whether they will be possible/favorably viewed or not are: Michi, BSR, Ogun, Minish.

If it's a question of self-preservation I may be inclined to lynch the other null reads.

Frankly, this reads like my readslists from last game.

Maybe my opinion is tainted, but I'm just reading Vro and TGN arguing RN as a distancing play to keep one of them alive if the other gets lynched.

I suppose if I was to go with what I can see right now my two closest to scum reads would be:

Vro. Their defense this day has been less about their own innocence and more casting doubt on anyone elses logic. It feels like someone who's just trying to show distrust in other people.

I wasn't arguing my own innocence until a point when arguing for it was the timely action to take. Proceeding with the assumption that I get voted up, I find it invaluable to at least get a start on all my current reads or suspicions, so yes I did cast my own doubts. If by your last sentence you meant that I'm trying to show my own distrust in other people, my response is that I say it how I see it, if I see a possible lead I'll usually go for it. If you meant that I was sowing distrust, I wasn't purposefully, I would say that I found justifiable wariness and instilling that quality very good to prevent wolves taking over from within.

So I was honestly ready to call bs at first. but then I hopped back a page and saw your list. My point was about *sowing* distrust. Mainly because I hadn't really seen your opinion or ideas on how the game was going outside of the suspicions about you. So to me it felt less like you were trying move the discussion on the state of the game forward and just trying to throw people onto each other instead. My apologies if I misread your intent. Does that make sense? Sometimes I tend to ramble in forum postings.

So I was honestly ready to call bs at first. but then I hopped back a page and saw your list. My point was about *sowing* distrust. Mainly because I hadn't really seen your opinion or ideas on how the game was going outside of the suspicions about you. So to me it felt less like you were trying move the discussion on the state of the game forward and just trying to throw people onto each other instead. My apologies if I misread your intent. Does that make sense? Sometimes I tend to ramble in forum postings.

Alright, fair enough. Yeah, tbh I waited so long because I felt I was taking too much of the game over, I wanted other people to have breathing room to voice their concerns to each other, even if they were about me. My intent was certainly to move the game forward, I wasn't specifically trying to throw certain people onto each other, but also getting people to interact can provide info into whether I think their link seems suspicious in any way. Yes it does make sense.

Ok thanks for this explanation. Can you explain the application in your wagonomics reasoning for your Hapi vote then?

Wanting multiple wagons in order to be able to compare/contrast voting patterns between them (or observe a lack thereof).
Unless scum absolutely fucks up, there's about 90% odds D1 will be a mislynch. Paired with the fact that - as I noted earlier - on D1, townie lives are relatively low value, that suggests that regardless of whether you're particularly convinced someone's scum or not - and you'll rarely be genuinely convinced someone is scum D1 unless they actually legit fucked up - you might as well make sure that there's at least 2 reasonably-sized wagons going for the purposes of accumulating useful information.
To use an analogy, D1 (and likely D2) wagonomics operates on much the same basis as WWII USSR: just like they traded land for time to blunt Barbarossa, so too must town necessarily trade townie lives for information with which they can root out scum.
So: D1, I make the wagonomics call on the basis of Most Viable Second Wagon, and Hapi died as a result. Which, while unfortunate* because she turned out to be town, was the mathematically likely outcome anyway. But as far as I'm concerned, if we trade a couple of mislynched townies in exchange for being able to halve-or-better our list of scumspects, that's a good trade. I'd do it again**.

*Again, the only reason I'm giving out the future-game-D1-pass for that is because I really don't want the perception that I have some kind of vendetta against her since I keep fucking doing it and consequently feel kind of guilty about it.
**...in the sense of 'I'd make that trade again', not 'I'm gonna D1 hammer lynch Hapi again'.

Ok I see, I see. This is some interesting Werewolf game theory. I'll have to keep this in mind. Thanks for the explanation.

I suppose if I was to go with what I can see right now my two closest to scum reads would be:

Vro. Their defense this day has been less about their own innocence and more casting doubt on anyone elses logic. It feels like someone who's just trying to show distrust in other people.

I wasn't arguing my own innocence until a point when arguing for it was the timely action to take. Proceeding with the assumption that I get voted up, I find it invaluable to at least get a start on all my current reads or suspicions, so yes I did cast my own doubts. If by your last sentence you meant that I'm trying to show my own distrust in other people, my response is that I say it how I see it, if I see a possible lead I'll usually go for it. If you meant that I was sowing distrust, I wasn't purposefully, I would say that I found justifiable wariness and instilling that quality very good to prevent wolves taking over from within.

So I was honestly ready to call bs at first. but then I hopped back a page and saw your list. My point was about *sowing* distrust. Mainly because I hadn't really seen your opinion or ideas on how the game was going outside of the suspicions about you. So to me it felt less like you were trying move the discussion on the state of the game forward and just trying to throw people onto each other instead. My apologies if I misread your intent. Does that make sense? Sometimes I tend to ramble in forum postings.

So I was honestly ready to call bs at first. but then I hopped back a page and saw your list. My point was about *sowing* distrust. Mainly because I hadn't really seen your opinion or ideas on how the game was going outside of the suspicions about you. So to me it felt less like you were trying move the discussion on the state of the game forward and just trying to throw people onto each other instead. My apologies if I misread your intent. Does that make sense? Sometimes I tend to ramble in forum postings.

Alright, fair enough. Yeah, tbh I waited so long because I felt I was taking too much of the game over, I wanted other people to have breathing room to voice their concerns to each other, even if they were about me. My intent was certainly to move the game forward, I wasn't specifically trying to throw certain people onto each other, but also getting people to interact can provide info into whether I think their link seems suspicious in any way. Yes it does make sense.

Vro seems softened up after this distrust theory , maybe his nerves are failing after drawing in so much suspicion , which he certainly can't avoid .The voting of Michi seems more important to me than his unvote . Since idk about playstyles , I don't read much about anyone coz i lack past data . But as of Vro's vote , if by chance Michi proved to be scum and Vro had his vote on Michi , he would have had dispersed into the townies group with ease for throwing out a wolf . However that seemed improbable as Hapi lynch seemed to gain momentum , until the tides turned and Michi wagon also came into play . At this point Vro probably would keep a scum by his side than send him off to prove innocence , and so the reversal . My FoS would go towards Vro , undecided on voting as of now

Vro seems softened up after this distrust theory , maybe his nerves are failing after drawing in so much suspicion , which he certainly can't avoid .The voting of Michi seems more important to me than his unvote . Since idk about playstyles , I don't read much about anyone coz i lack past data . But as of Vro's vote , if by chance Michi proved to be scum and Vro had his vote on Michi , he would have had dispersed into the townies group with ease for throwing out a wolf . However that seemed improbable as Hapi lynch seemed to gain momentum , until the tides turned and Michi wagon also came into play . At this point Vro probably would keep a scum by his side than send him off to prove innocence , and so the reversal . My FoS would go towards Vro , undecided on voting as of now

Oh dang, this is a remarkable analysis. Have you had experience in a type of forum game before? Your theory would seem better suited if I had actually switched votes to Hapi, how would you explain just unvoting and giving my "scum bud" just as much of an equal and random chance of being lynched as Hapi? Also how would you explain me voting last minute? There were far better and fewer attention-drawing opportunities to switch votes earlier.

So suspicions seem to have gathered around Vroendal and Michi (among a couple others like TGN and BSR). I just don't think that both Vroendal and Michi are scum. Michi seemed resigned to his death D1, so Vroendal could have gotten some easy town points by bussing him were they both scum (especially since Vro sorta solidified the evidence against Michi). Plus, if Vro moved off Michi and then Michi flipped scum, that would look very bad on him.

So that means, if Vro were scum, then his unvote was because he didn't want to be a part of a wagon that got a town killed (especially one he helped build) -- his subsequent vote flips were then to make him look like town not knowing what to do. If Vro were town, then his unvote was because of "the amount of players saying they were uncomfortable in [Michi's] lynch" -- his subsequent vote flips were then genuine indecision of whether to go with his gut or follow others (ending up choosing the latter).

Aaand, we're at WIFOM.

I'll admit that I was going into this post expecting to defend Vroendal, but I sorta reasoned myself against it. Scum Vro seems more likely in that situation than town Vro -- if others were uncomfortable with Michi's lynch, then they should have voted to save him, especially since Vro wasn't even the last person to vote for Michi (Minish would've looked most sus for putting the nail in Michi's coffin) and his evidence wasn't bad. I'm also starting to agree with Doc's hypothesis that Vro might be intentionally playing similar to last game when he was town where he admitted that he was playing very suspiciously in order to appear town again this game.

But the fact that Michi has not posted since D2 started has me worried that he's trying to not draw attention to himself while people talk about Vroendal. This is especially so since he said he stopped paying attention because people were piling on him, but since it's a new day, that's no longer the case.

But either way, we'll get info by one of them getting lynched. Hmm...

Vote: Vroendal

Please prove me wrong, though. I'd also be ok with voting for Michi or Ruguo so that they can focus on hosting the next game since neither are leaning town for me anyway.

Gerrick's Quote

So suspicions seem to have gathered around Vroendal and Michi (among a couple others like TGN and BSR). I just don't think that both Vroendal and Michi are scum. Michi seemed resigned to his death D1, so Vroendal could have gotten some easy town points by bussing him were they both scum (especially since Vro sorta solidified the evidence against Michi). Plus, if Vro moved off Michi and then Michi flipped scum, that would look very bad on him.

So that means, if Vro were scum, then his unvote was because he didn't want to be a part of a wagon that got a town killed (especially one he helped build) -- his subsequent vote flips were then to make him look like town not knowing what to do. If Vro were town, then his unvote was because of "the amount of players saying they were uncomfortable in [Michi's] lynch" -- his subsequent vote flips were then genuine indecision of whether to go with his gut or follow others (ending up choosing the latter).

Aaand, we're at WIFOM.

I'll admit that I was going into this post expecting to defend Vroendal, but I sorta reasoned myself against it. Scum Vro seems more likely in that situation than town Vro -- if others were uncomfortable with Michi's lynch, then they should have voted to save him, especially since Vro wasn't even the last person to vote for Michi (Minish would've looked most sus for putting the nail in Michi's coffin) and his evidence wasn't bad. I'm also starting to agree with Doc's hypothesis that Vro might be intentionally playing similar to last game when he was town where he admitted that he was playing very suspiciously in order to appear town again this game.

But the fact that Michi has not posted since D2 started has me worried that he's trying to not draw attention to himself while people talk about Vroendal. This is especially so since he said he stopped paying attention because people were piling on him, but since it's a new day, that's no longer the case.

But either way, we'll get info by one of them getting lynched. Hmm...

Vote: Vroendal

Please prove me wrong, though. I'd also be ok with voting for Michi or Ruguo so that they can focus on hosting the next game since neither are leaning town for me anyway.

My issue with your argument, Gerrick, is that if I was going into that sort of play as scum it would still be abundantly clear both to me and to my scum team that I would be connected to Michi's lynch, I was the main instigator, after all. You're focusing on a convoluted line of thought that relies on me making assumptions about how others will view me, which I think both by personal admission and historical data is an illogical choice for scum Vro to make. The simpler option in a scum Vro town Michi scenario would just be to play it out and coast on the valid arguments I had already made against him without drawing specific undue attention to myself.

As scum Vro at that point I probably would have been too paranoid to switch, not too paranoid to stay. I had created an argument with reasoning, whether if I were bussing or not, it would be a very odd move to not vote, especially after setting it up so much.

As for last game, I had stated that I was playing suspiciously to satisfy what I thought would be an entertaining and useful way to play my role: a tree stump. As this is a game with no roles like that, it would be an odd choice to specifically try to repeat that kind of game.

I also would ask what info you think to gain from my lynch? Also, what specifically is pinging you about Ruguo?

@Melehan

One of the things from Vro that I feel has scum motivation behind it is how he reacted to my idea. In all actuality he would probably typically get town cred for his reaction, but he reminds me of how I was as scum in the game I just finished playing (the one that made Silver say he can't tell town me from scum me haha). Basically he immediately went into it explaining the bad parts of it and not talking about any benefits. To me that sort of comes from a more scum mindset. You want to immediately point out the bad so that people will think, "yeah that's a good point, they must have town's best interest in mind". Now that's not always true, town can be the same way. But usually for plans that have no positive for town at all. Vro should have seen my reasoning behind my proposal and suggested perhaps just doing reads lists instead. Because you can also hide info in those. It's also not just his reaction to the plan, but what followed with him using that to subtly put suspicion on me. Vro knows I'm considered a good player, if he's scum then getting me mislynched would be very favorable. If he can plant enough seeds of distrust than that's good scumplay.


Also, his unvote can have scum intent behind it. If Michi flips town, it could be that scum Vro didn't want to he associated with leading a town lynch and backed out last second on a "oh I'm not sure" stance so that if Michi flipped town then he looks a little better. Scum doesn't care about a coinflip between two townies and they can try to use it to get some town points. If Michi is scum with Vro, Vro tried to get bussing towncred but misplayed it. In that situation he wouldn't actually want to go to Hapi because then her flipping town really makes him and Michi more suspicious. Instead he unvotes and hopes for rng in his favor. Or he just forgets the rules and thinks unvotes are no lynches.


There's also the fact that Vro keeps claiming how bad my idea was, but if you pay any attention he actually did do the idea I was going for that he said was so bad and he wouldn't do. His readslist has only one top town read. Despite saying that my idea would out the docs, the idea of giving reads is essentially the same. Scum will pick up on someone hard town reading another player for seemingly no reason and potentially figure out that's why, since scum knows who the kill failed on. My idea was essentially to remind town to go back after flips of power roles and look into their reads to gain potential information of their actions.

Vro if you're town here you need to get me on the same page like you did last game.



Also, is Doc always like this? Him explaining wagonomics like that is a man after my own heart.

Minish's Quote

@Melehan

One of the things from Vro that I feel has scum motivation behind it is how he reacted to my idea. In all actuality he would probably typically get town cred for his reaction, but he reminds me of how I was as scum in the game I just finished playing (the one that made Silver say he can't tell town me from scum me haha). Basically he immediately went into it explaining the bad parts of it and not talking about any benefits. To me that sort of comes from a more scum mindset. You want to immediately point out the bad so that people will think, "yeah that's a good point, they must have town's best interest in mind". Now that's not always true, town can be the same way. But usually for plans that have no positive for town at all. Vro should have seen my reasoning behind my proposal and suggested perhaps just doing reads lists instead. Because you can also hide info in those. It's also not just his reaction to the plan, but what followed with him using that to subtly put suspicion on me. Vro knows I'm considered a good player, if he's scum then getting me mislynched would be very favorable. If he can plant enough seeds of distrust than that's good scumplay.


Also, his unvote can have scum intent behind it. If Michi flips town, it could be that scum Vro didn't want to he associated with leading a town lynch and backed out last second on a "oh I'm not sure" stance so that if Michi flipped town then he looks a little better. Scum doesn't care about a coinflip between two townies and they can try to use it to get some town points. If Michi is scum with Vro, Vro tried to get bussing towncred but misplayed it. In that situation he wouldn't actually want to go to Hapi because then her flipping town really makes him and Michi more suspicious. Instead he unvotes and hopes for rng in his favor. Or he just forgets the rules and thinks unvotes are no lynches.


There's also the fact that Vro keeps claiming how bad my idea was, but if you pay any attention he actually did do the idea I was going for that he said was so bad and he wouldn't do. His readslist has only one top town read. Despite saying that my idea would out the docs, the idea of giving reads is essentially the same. Scum will pick up on someone hard town reading another player for seemingly no reason and potentially figure out that's why, since scum knows who the kill failed on. My idea was essentially to remind town to go back after flips of power roles and look into their reads to gain potential information of their actions.

Vro if you're town here you need to get me on the same page like you did last game.



Also, is Doc always like this? Him explaining wagonomics like that is a man after my own heart.

My Response

I'mma be real right now my brain is fried, I'll get this response in so it doesn't stew overnight but any odd or misleading specifically grammatical mistakes should be taken with the likely intention of meaning behind it.

I must admit my push on your idea was partly motivated by my knowledge of that game, I considered that since as of yet I'm not at the level where I'll be able to tell your alignment by most of your reasoning, if there was any push to be had on a possible scum Minish I had to go all out on anything I saw. I didn't talk about the benefits because you expressed those eloquently enough after I pulled it out of you, your original suggestion didn't have your full rationale laid out, so I didn't see it. I liked your final post on the topic as my acknowledgment of its points. As I said at one point I am most definitely in favor of full reads lists, but that's not what you were asking for, you were asking about a specific top read.

Your reasoning about possible scum intent has no faults, that is a definite possibility. You must take that into account with my other actions and how at least from my perspective I've been both scum-hunting and trying to draw information out.

I specifically said that posting only your top read was a bad idea, but yeah I can see you feel a little betrayed by my apparent reversal, but that's just kind of how my reads list worked out, I wasn't making it in spite of my disapproval of your original suggestion. I think I understand your reasoning behind your suggestion better after reading through it all again, but the original post was somewhat lacking in rationale, can you understand why I think that, and I panicked over the implications. I just feel that you could have gone farther than just asking everyone to specifically post their top read. I had to push to get your explanation, which was objectively not a very joyous task to set about to from someone who is traditionally seen as a strong town player.

As for Doc, from what I have observed he is like that. Very helpful.

@Vroendal

I did understand where you were coming from hence my admittance that the plan had flaws. What I would want from town though is to engage on the idea and either explain why it doesn't work at all or to improve upon it. That was mostly my issue with how you went about it. I'll give a small hint into my scum vs town play in regards to this situation. As scum I will think through any possible ramifications of a plan I propose to make sure it only gets me town cred and not suspicion. I think you can see the difference from last game to this one. Where I pushed my own scumbud because of his bad plan, I pushed Rubik because of his plan, and then I took Rubik's plan and actually twisted it to look better but actually be helpful to me as mafia as well.

My original plan wasn't thoroughly thought through in its entirety because town shouldn't feel the need to hold back on things they find helpful, and I had just woken up at the time I posted it.

Well I won't be making as big of a post as I was planning to since I need to wake up earlier this morning.  Because of that, this will not be as elaborate as I would hope.

My opposition to both the Michi and Hapi wagons yesterday was because I did not feel either were sus in any way yet.  I still do not see them as sus (makes sense for the latter since they were offed and revealed) but there have been some very good points made with the analyses of the wagons and their participants.  I am nearing a point where Michi could a target of my vote.

Some of the players I am finding difficult to analyze include: Melehan, Vroendal, Minish, ENE, and Wischland.  Vroendal I have a fair bit of suspicion towards but they appear to be defending themselves well.  Melehan keeps flip flopping in my view between town and scum leaning with the different analyses and RP/flavor posts.  Minish has been quite helpful towards the town but at the same time, I have a nagging suspicion that they are playing a part as scum.  Wischland and Alexander Valentine and ENE have not posted enough for me to get a read of them based off what I have read so far.  I have a suspicion that somewhere in the group of BraveSirRobin, Wintermoot, Red, Vroendal, Minish, Ogun and others I am not thinking of right now; there is at least one Titan.  This is very much an unproved gut or vibe suspicion though.  I also wonder with Melehan and Vroendal how much of their post liking with the arguments for and against their suspiciousness is indicative of players being onto something with regards to their leanings.

I would say TGN is null with a slight town lean so far.  While they keep making posts and votes that are explained away as jokes, something about them makes me think they are not that suspicious so far.
Nyght, Anubhav, and cozmikrae are now in a sort of town lock position for the moment (temporarily with Anubhav since they haven't posted much but they are newly substituted and those posts have me convinced).  While I am not convinced of Red's suspiciousness or non suspicion, their defense combined with what I have seen of cozmik are making me think they are a player adjusting to this town setting but fitting in and trying to contribute.

As a summary of these reads.
Town Lock
NyghtOwl (Are you playing us though?)
cozmikrae ()
Anubhav Ghosh (this probably won't last long, I am being generous since they are more of a lean but that remains to be seen)

Town Lean
Wintermoot (somewhat suspicious but you seem to be triggering my gut a little less than the others)
TGN (reminds me of some of my own early games, more chaotic and less suspicious and not triggering my alarms)
Michi (they seem to just be defending themselves and their resigned defense reminds me of a lot of mislynches)
Gerrick (so far they have yet to set off an alarm)

Null or not much of a read.
Wischland (haven't seen much from their posts)
Eastern New England (not as inactive but haven't seen much from their posts)
Ogun of Valeria (same as Melehan)
Melehan (Just don't know)
Ruguo (same as the previous two)
Alexander Valentine (no activity)
Sapphiron (not sure even with I have read and remember)
Red Mones (not as conflicting as the others but somewhat town leading and conflicting)

Scum Lean
BraveSirRobin (the defense did help but I need to reread it some more, really more of a null until that time)

Conflicting Reads (definitely need more analysis since I am seeing signs of both sides or thinking I am seeing them)
Minish (not suspicious in their posts but for some reason they are reminding me of when we were both wolves and seem to be holding something back (though that is normally not suspicious to me))
Doc (I seem to be seeing a mixture of town and scum reads from my mind and others and I am being reminded of The Wall when they were scum)
Vroendal (Appears to simultaneously be scum leaning and town leaning)

For reference, here are links to games of Werewolf I directly mentioned in the post.
 The Wall (the slight Doc suspicion)  Portal Part 1 (Minish and I being wolves)