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Typo fixing post:

and the irony is not lost on me that I'm calling you out for said *evasiveness, either.

Another one:

"As for why your point about being laser-focused and justifiably so"

should just have been

*As for why your point about being laser-focused and justifiably so.*

As I say literally every game, I'm gonna vote for someone on Day 1 no matter what. Votes are the most efficient reaction tests and so the best way to get leads on wolves. And so my first votes on D1 are usually random with a joke reasoning.

And I am in general terrible at reading people in Werewolf. I'm better at noticing trends in actions/votes rather than what my gut says. This puts me at a disadvantage in the beginning, but regardless, I'll give my thoughts so far.

I'm particularly terrible at reading Laurentus, but I will always think it's better for him to be in the game than not as he drives activity, which (whether intentional or not) tends to cause the wolves to show themselves. He's admitted to not being a good wolf, so if anything he's a liability to them and an asset to us -- better to keep him on.

Vroendal is the second most active person this game, which doesn't seem the norm for him, although from what I remember he does tend to be rather active. I'm tending to agree with him about Hapi here. Her "hints" seem to be heavier than usual, but they seem to be hints nonetheless, which is making me lean towards town with her (keyword: lean).

Michi is slightly leaning wolf with his accusations against The Greenlandic North, who is obviously very green (see what I did there? ). And then has disappeared since then.

Doc is a little quiet, which is slightly concerning, but it's still too early for that to mean much. Plus, others are driving discussions, so he doesn't really need to.

Besides Wischland's observations (prompted by Laurentus), the other XKIers are much too quiet for my liking, having not made any votes nor said much of any use. I'll chalk this up to being on a different region's forums and not being used to our way of playing. But chances are that one of them is a wolf -- and I'm gonna say more than likely that two are.

Nobody else has done enough to make me think one way or the other, although Ogunbiyi is the only non-new Wintreanr who has not voted, which is casting suspicion on him in my eyes.

Laurentus is currently tied with Michi right now. Seeing as how I'd rather he not be killed off just yet (explained above), I'll change my vote to help offset that. I could change it to either Dawsinian, Hapi, Doc, or TGN to give them a three-way tie or to Michi to put him in the majority... I don't find Michi suspicious enough to go out on a limb to do that, so I suppose I'll change my vote to the one of the four I find most suspicious (mostly because he has made posts but nothing of real use).

Change Vote: Dawsinian

As I say literally every game, I'm gonna vote for someone on Day 1 no matter what. Votes are the most efficient reaction tests and so the best way to get leads on wolves. And so my first votes on D1 are usually random with a joke reasoning.

And I am in general terrible at reading people in Werewolf. I'm better at noticing trends in actions/votes rather than what my gut says. This puts me at a disadvantage in the beginning, but regardless, I'll give my thoughts so far.

I'm particularly terrible at reading Laurentus, but I will always think it's better for him to be in the game than not as he drives activity, which (whether intentional or not) tends to cause the wolves to show themselves. He's admitted to not being a good wolf, so if anything he's a liability to them and an asset to us -- better to keep him on.

Vroendal is the second most active person this game, which doesn't seem the norm for him, although from what I remember he does tend to be rather active. I'm tending to agree with him about Hapi here. Her "hints" seem to be heavier than usual, but they seem to be hints nonetheless, which is making me lean towards town with her (keyword: lean).

Michi is slightly leaning wolf with his accusations against The Greenlandic North, who is obviously very green (see what I did there? ). And then has disappeared since then.

Doc is a little quiet, which is slightly concerning, but it's still too early for that to mean much. Plus, others are driving discussions, so he doesn't really need to.

Besides Wischland's observations (prompted by Laurentus), the other XKIers are much too quiet for my liking, having not made any votes nor said much of any use. I'll chalk this up to being on a different region's forums and not being used to our way of playing. But chances are that one of them is a wolf -- and I'm gonna say more than likely that two are.

Nobody else has done enough to make me think one way or the other, although Ogunbiyi is the only non-new Wintreanr who has not voted, which is casting suspicion on him in my eyes.

Laurentus is currently tied with Michi right now. Seeing as how I'd rather he not be killed off just yet (explained above), I'll change my vote to help offset that. I could change it to either Dawsinian, Hapi, Doc, or TGN to give them a three-way tie or to Michi to put him in the majority... I don't find Michi suspicious enough to go out on a limb to do that, so I suppose I'll change my vote to the one of the four I find most suspicious (mostly because he has made posts but nothing of real use).

Change Vote: Dawsinian

I'm very curious what you think of my posts showing what are, to me, logical inconsistencies in Vro's reasoning.

I mean, as you yourself said:

Would be a weird scum tactic to soft-claim it, because there is almost definitely an Aragorn somewhere, and it is likely associated with town. Counter-claims would be interesting.

Yes, but that's about Hapi. I mean the whole thing that's going on right now.

It's not just a play-style thing, it's a question of competence. You are competent enough and, I would imagine, realistic enough to see the clear red flags of placing your faith so fully in Hapi. You're also being extraordinarily evasive about what makes you this certain. Just saying "my gut" and "the direction of the game" is not showing me your progression, and the irony is not lost on me that I'm calling you out for said evasive ess, either. Unfortunately for players like you, once you have shown yourself to be have that much potential, any logical inconsistency or irrational move you make will scream sus to me. And there is a clear contradiction in your thought-patterns here, as well. If you considered that she's pulling one over on us, you cannot simultaneously be completely certain. Especially if you don't show me the progression about how you got from "yeah, this is potentially a bit screwy" to "bruh, you're about to waste a night power and also how dare you try and be evasive again." I would also like to point out that I became ever so slightly concerned about her possibility to false-claim exactly because of your post mentioning the possibility of a ploy.

As for why your point about being laser-focused and justifiably so, again, there is a clear lack of progression in how you got to this. You stated very early on that this is just my usual MO, so I don't understand why you'd focus on that more than so much else happening right now. Certainly, I can have a devastating impact on the game if I am a Wolf and have positioned myself as Town leader, but worrying about this to the exclusion of all else is damaging to Town, because 1) It would absolutely be in the Wolves' best interest to remove said Town leader, especially in a game where there are so many new players who would just faff about aimlessly if not provided with direction, and 2) you are not getting any useful insights from any other players. "You have been very active and talked a lot" is also not exactly the best reason to be wary. What has the content of my posts been? Can you case those? (Yes, I know you're going to focus on the "Lau is evading the night scan!" angle, and yes, that's valid and I'm quite impressed by it, but you are not getting a free pass by virtue of only one thing you've finally been able to nail me with).

The part that was eye-raising is that your own experience with Hapi clearly played a big role in your alleged certainty in her Town status, and the truthfulness of her claim (I've already shown the inconsistency of your thought process and progression to this, so that's not what I'm focusing on now), yet you didn't consider that I was not a witness to those past actions myself, and then jumped straight to casing me about it instead of filling me in on the context that I was clearly sorely in need of.

Your last paragraph is basically just reiterating a point you already made in your first paragraph, and is a conclusion that I don't see as necessary, either, because I didn't accuse you of trying to sway people's votes or opinions in the first place.

So I'm stuck in a predicament. Do I try and get you voted off already, because you have now become my own main scumspect, but also risk losing a damn essential player if you are actually misguided Town, or do I keep you around with the risk that you just laser-focus on me the whole damn game and we derail the whole thread with our bickering?

Okie, I see what you mean. First of all, it's BOLD of you to assume that just because I'm perhaps competent to some extent in your eyes I'm not oblivious as a brick to what's right in front of my nose. You're giving me far too much credit.

As to Hapi, yes I clearly see the red flags, but until she herself says something that gives me a reason for lynching her, I don't want to. I really don't think I'm being evasive, I just don't have a reason that satisfies you. I'm sorry about that but ok. Tbh Lau, I'm pretty lazy and frankly don't feel like writing a super long analysis of Hapi and justifying my own opinions on D1. I also wish you would stop saying I have potential, it paints a target on me for lynches and kills and again you're giving me a lot of credit. If there is a contradiction, it is because my thoughts are irrational, and I'm not going to see that it's irrational until I figure it out myself. As for this part, aiyaiyai it's going to be hard to explain to your satisfaction. I am not completely certain of her true innocence at all, I am uncertain of anyone's true innocence until they die or the game is over. That is the logical view. However, from my view there is a point wherein I must overlook certain possibilities to let myself progress in the game farther, or else I'm just stuck spinning in circles until someone dies. I recognize that this is not a fullproof way at all, but you can't be stuck waiting around forever, you have to make a decision. I'm trying to build teams in my head, but I need to eliminate certain blocks first. My thought process of wasting a night power follows from there, and having played as a wolf I understand how useful predictions can be, my reasons for skipping over her have already been laid out to the best extent I can. Yes, I can definitely see why you would be worried about me. Ok. Am I worried about her at all? Yes or I wouldn't have said that there was a possibility it was a ploy. Am I choosing to allay my own worries like a fool? Yeah.

I'm focusing on you BECAUSE it's your usual MO. It's so easy for you to hide in plain sight just by habit. It gives you perfect excuses to start pushes on people. How dare you assume I'm excluding all else, you can't say I have potential then insult me like that. (I mean this in terms of the game I don't feel insulted) As to #1, ofc it is, have I voted you? No. Have I encouraged people to vote for you? No. Newer players will faff around without direction, but forgive me if I'm wary from where that direction is coming from. As for #2, I asked from Sapph just as much to see what he would say than from actually seeing what he thought of you. I've voted Gerrick to get him talking (which hasn't worked, I'm a bit irritated about that). You talking a lot may not be the best reason to be wary, but it's still a reason. I'm wary of you Lau because of your ability to talk, it sets you up as a leader and as the center of attention. The contents of your posts have been speaking townie to me except for the post that sets you up to be skipped by a night scan, not that I'm sure you'll be scanned anyway, just don't like the way you said it.

I didn't consider it bc my bad, I was thoughtless. Pardon me. :p I'm willing to clarify, and I did, I wanted to get through my list. My last paragraph functions as a reiteration because personally I get bored of long walls of text and wanted to just state what I felt was the main message of my post. The message was as much to the others reading this as to you, I wanted to talk preemptively.

You can do as you wish in your predicament, if I get voted off I have no one to blame but myself. I also don't understand why you would call me essential, you don't know anything about my role. I feel it would be more beneficial if I stopped talking altogether so others would speak. I'm just choosing to respond to your questions and statements based on what I see as important. If it would alleviate your fears as well if we voted off Hapi right here and now and have the possibility of someone checking me, we can do that. I just am not in favor of it. Anything has a certain extent of risk Lau. Will you decide to let me alive for now? Or will you fall ploy to your own paranoia and lynch me? I feel that either way you won't get the answers you want. This is just D1.

I think the thread is pretty much derailed already, my bad. You're not doing anything for your case either @Michi. @Wintermoot I think your thoughts would be interesting to hear as well. Thank you for responding Gerrick, I may have a response in another post, I have to read yours through first.

Also Lau, I make typos all the time, ignore them. You missed the one where I said I was "using" Gerrick when I meant to say "sussing" that one was the autocorrect's fault.

Wow, a lot has happened in the last day or so.

I wanted to wait to vote because I don't believe a wolf would draw undue attention to themselves in the first round. I think they're more likely to vote at some point, try to get lost in the shuffle, and let the villagers duke it out among themselves. However, a unique opportunity opened up for the wolves when Laurentus and Michi voted for each other...both are strong players, and both would be big losses for the villagers if they're on that side.

Them voting for each other isn't necessarily suspicious in and of itself on the first round, but then Dawsinian and Sapphiron in short order pile onto those votes with no good explanation and no reconsideration as 9 pages of thoughts and information piled up, even though they've both made other posts since then. Sounds a lot like trying to get lost in the shuffle to me. But that raises the question of who is working with who?

The most obvious answer would be that Laurentus and Sapphiron are working together. Laurentus did make the first vote against Michi, and it also happens to be the vote that The Greenlandic North attached himself to on the next page. But it also seems kinda obvious and risky. If this held true and Michi was revealed as town, then at least 2 of the 4 wolves are under suspicion right out the gate.

Or it could be Michi and Dawsinian. What better way to get rid of someone than claiming self-defense? If Laurentus were voted off and revealed as town, many people probably wouldn't think anything of it cause he did make the first vote, and voting back is just retaliation, right? But again, that could still backfire, and you again have 2 of 4 wolves under suspicion so early in the game.

I think the more likely scenario at this point is that Laurentus and Michi are both town, Laurentus made his vote cause that's just what Laurentus does in Werewolf, and it's understandable that Michi would vote back. If they're both town, then what would it matter which one of them got voted off? Why pile everyone on one person right out the gate? If you divide it out, then you don't have a batch of wolves looking suspicious. So maybe Sapphiron and Dawsinian are working together here, a sort of divide and conquer strategy.

But I can only vote for one, so Vote: Sapphiron, because TGN piled on the same person as him in the beginning. I know TGN is a new player, but what if as a new player he thought he was supposed to vote for the same person his fellow wolf was voting for? He only changed his vote because he was coming under such heavy suspicion...he himself says he didn't want to be lynched when he changed it. It's not certain that he initially voted for Michi for that reason, but it's a possibility, which is all we kinda have on the first turn.

Highly speculative of course, but what more can you have on day 1?

@Wintermoot, could you easily program in a feature that lets people see how many posts each person participating in the game has made?

I'm sure it can be done, I'll try to get something like that in during the game at some point, though it may not be immediately.

Sorry for being a bit late to join the game here. As Wischland said, you guys are a lot more vote-happy than we are in XKI. Usually, rather than a Random Voting Phase, we vote No Lynch for the first day, until we have some information for the fear of lynching a town. Seeing that, I am just going to wait and watch until some information presents itself.

We used to do that too, but I think at one point people came to believe that having everyone automatically not lynch gave the wolves too much breathing room and allowed them to make the first move.

Okay, yeah, I've become really paranoid. This is Werewolf at its finest. I'm going to take a break and come back to look at everything again a bit later, because right now, everyone looks sus to me.

Okay, yeah, I've become really paranoid. This is Werewolf at its finest. I'm going to take a break and come back to look at everything again a bit later, because right now, everyone looks sus to me.

Hey Lau, I apologize if this gives you a headache. :p
Vote: Dawsinian
Take it how you will. :3

Thank you for responding Gerrick, I see your rationale.
Out of everyone up there I feel most comfortable voting Daws. I don't really have a good reason, I think Gerrick's analysis is fair. I would rather he goes instead of the others.

Yes, but that's about Hapi. I mean the whole thing that's going on right now.

Yeah, I'll admit that I skimmed over that back-and-forth between you and Vroendal since it didn't seem pertinent. Reading it back now, I can see what you mean, although I don't think Vro is going as hard in protecting Hapi as you're making it out to be -- perhaps reread that exchange. Vro just should have not said anything about not scanning Hapi this night phase because now there's a higher chance of a scan on her being blocked. There's a chance that it was because they're both wolves, but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low. Basically I think you're both misplacing your focus right now.

Yeah, I'll admit that I skimmed over that back-and-forth between you and Vroendal since it didn't seem pertinent. Reading it back now, I can see what you mean, although I don't think Vro is going as hard in protecting Hapi as you're making it out to be -- perhaps reread that exchange. Vro just should have not said anything about not scanning Hapi this night phase because now there's a higher chance of a scan on her being blocked. There's a chance that it was because they're both wolves, but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low. Basically I think you're both misplacing your focus right now.

Ey, let it be said that Lau was the one who brought up scanning her, I just disagreed.
Upon further consideration I also your point about at least one of the XKI players being a wolf very intriguing, I say we (in all kindness) grill them after the results of this vote.

Ey, let it be said that Lau was the one who brought up scanning her, I just disagreed.
Upon further consideration I also your point about at least one of the XKI players being a wolf very intriguing, I say we (in all kindness) grill them after the results of this vote.

Ah, right you are there. Either way, the more you both talked about it, the less likely Hapi would be successfully scanned. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

There are far too many vanity wagons, and this stresses me out as we can't analyse voting patterns the next day phase at this rate.

@Red Mones, can we get a vote count?