Okay.
There are currently 7 of us surviving, of 13 to start.
According to
~ 4 black brothers : 1 sentry : 1 ranger : 2 Others
And there's only one wildling lover, as the role description implies.
That suggests that at 17, we would have 8 Brothers, 2 Sentries, 2 Rangers, 4 Others, and the Wildling Lover - so at 13, I'd expect ~5 Brothers, 2 Rangers, 2 Sentries, 3 Others, 1 Lover.
We have lost both Sentries, a Ranger, the Wildling Lover, a Brother, and an Other. There is
definitively one other Ranger in the game, because Wintermoot was not in the game when PowerPAOK was killed in the night - and additionally means that said Ranger is on cooldown until tomorrow.
We can thus
guess that there are 4 Brothers, a Ranger, and 2 Others in the game. It might be 3 Brothers, a Ranger, and 3 Others (in which case we've practically lost the game), but I'm reasonably confident at guessing we're at 4B:1R:2O.
Regressing back to the first 9, though (of which we'd ordinarily expect 4 Brothers, 1 Sentry, 1 Ranger, 2 Others, 1 Lover, but we have 2 Sentries so I'll say 3 Brothers), we have a confirmed 1 Brother, 1 Other, 2 Sentries, 1 Lover.
That leaves 2 Brothers, a Ranger, and an Other among Laurentus, me, Elb, and Kane.
Extrapolating further, that leaves 2 Brothers and an Other among Red Mones, North, and Hydra.
Statistically, without the biases that would arise from observing other players, we'd want to target the latter group, since there's a 1/3 chance of hitting an Other there, whereas there's only a 1/4 chance of hitting an Other in the first group, and that's the same chance as hitting our Ranger, when it would be really swell if he could survive long enough to use his power again.
Speaking candidly, of course, I'd especially like to do this because Wintermoot painted a big target on my chest, and then died, which is going to lead a lot of people to suspect me immediately, to which all I can say is 'well, if I
was an Other, I wouldn't be stupid enough to do that, and if I'm
not an Other, it's a pretty inspired move to laser-focus that target on my back'.