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Still, if the political analysts and pollsters were always right, Hillary Clinton would be president right now and Democrats would be running the Senate. I understand that the electoral map is challenging, but especially in these politically chaotic times that doesn't necessarily mean anything. Two years is a long time in politics, and we've already seen how fired up the Democratic base is after just two weeks of Trump and the Republicans.

I agree that anything could happen in the next two years, but as it stands I'm more inclined to remain pessimistic. There simply aren't enough openings for the Democrats, while there are plenty for the Republicans. The Dems need to pull off a picture-perfect victory to just gain 50% in the Senate. If they lose just one of their incumbent seats, they've essentially already lost.

I'm actually inclined to be optimistic, and that's not even counting on any number of scenarios that could favour Democrats. Trump could completely implode or be impeached, establishment and tea party Republicans could erupt into all-out civil war again, the whole lot of them could overreach and alienate most of the country outside their base...they could actually demoralize their own base. I tend to think that the Republicans don't have anywhere to go but down at this point. They control the government and own what happens the next two years...no more blaming everything on Obama.

And there's always the House to sweep control of, too.

At least for now, blaming everything on Obama still seems to be the Trump administration's MO:

http://www.npr.org/2017/02/04/513388284/thanks-obama-trump-administration-uses-obamas-record-as-defense (heard this this morning)

And I completely agree with you on the House. It's just that with the Senate, even if something disastrous happens to the Republicans, the deeply red states up for reelection are more likely than not going to fall in line. As you said:

Most of the states Democrats are defending are at least states they have a decent chance of winning at

And with the electoral map as it stands, the Dems need more than just a "decent chance" at "most" states. They need to defend all of their states, and make inroads into Republican ones.

I think the political atmosphere certainly will shift back in favor of the Democrats. But with the Senate itself, it'll take nothing short of a miracle to gain a majority. Which isn't to say it isn't possible, but I'm certainly not counting on it or remaining particularly hopeful.

And as for the polls: FiveThirtyEight was giving Clinton a ~70% chance of winning. All that means is that we're living in the 30% of possible worlds where Trump won.

I'd hate to see them stoop to that level though.

An interesting opinion that I heard recently is that it's important to remember that this is not an ordinary political situation anymore, so responding to events in an ordinary or normal fashion has little to no value.  Trump's cabinet picks have been mostly nihilistic billionaires like himself that openly hate the agency/department they've been picked to lead, which is strange enough on its own.  Trump could have picked a much worse nominee, truly. However, one fairly reasonable action in an ocean of outlandish, half-baked spasms does not mean the opposition should slow down or let up at all, in my opinion.  The Republican's outright refusal to consider Merrick Garland's nomination - which was not based on Mr. Garland's merits, remember, but solely on the fact that he was nominated in the final year of the Obama presidency - was an upheaval of democratic norms, and that's a two-way street.  The Democrats, in my opinion, are under no obligation to behave in a "normal" way anymore, and I think many Democratic voters (read: protesters at airports, Trump properties around the world, etc.) would agree.

It is a special kind of insanity to remain calm and reasoned in the presence of fools.

What scares me the most about Donald Trump is Benito Mussolini. Benito Mussolini was not popular at first. He instituted very unpopular programs that people fought him on day after day after day. How did he win? He swamped them. He buried them in an avalanche of insane proposals. He browbeat them into submission and before long, no one dared oppose him. I hope to god we do not see a repeat.

The problem is that the electoral map simply does not favor the Democrats:


To gain 50% in the Senate, the Dems have to not only take Arizona (a traditionally red state) and Nevada (where the incumbent is an early favorite to win reelection), but also keep every single one of their current seats, many of which are in red/swing states. Even then, we have VP Mike Pence to break the tie. The odds are simply stacked against them.

I don't think it's quite sunk in for some people how much of a thrashing democrats have been getting recently. Even if you don't necessarily like them, Trump's protectionist policies have filled a very profitable niche that has been missing in American politics since Reagan, and this cow isn't gonna run out of milk for a long time.

It is a special kind of insanity to remain calm and reasoned in the presence of fools.

What scares me the most about Donald Trump is Benito Mussolini. Benito Mussolini was not popular at first. He instituted very unpopular programs that people fought him on day after day after day. How did he win? He swamped them. He buried them in an avalanche of insane proposals. He browbeat them into submission and before long, no one dared oppose him. I hope to god we do not see a repeat.

Ah, the good ol "le drumpf is a fascist" crap I've been hearing so much about. Trump isn't a fascist, he has yet to discredit the ideals of the Enlightenment or state that democracy doesn't work. By definition, fascists oppose the democratic system, and upon their election will actively destroy it. I have yet to see Trump reducing the powers of the Congress, so no, he isn't fucking Mussolini.

I'm actually inclined to be optimistic, and that's not even counting on any number of scenarios that could favour Democrats. Trump could completely implode or be impeached, establishment and tea party Republicans could erupt into all-out civil war again, the whole lot of them could overreach and alienate most of the country outside their base...they could actually demoralize their own base. I tend to think that the Republicans don't have anywhere to go but down at this point. They control the government and own what happens the next two years...no more blaming everything on Obama.

And there's always the House to sweep control of, too.

Trump will be impeached when hell freezes over. The majority of Republicans absolutely would not destabilize a red executive branch, and they won't be losing the Senate anytime soon so say bye bye to the democrats initiating that. We had a guy who pardoned every war criminal in the country as president (A Johnson) and he wasn't impeached, I think a guy who pissed off some people with an immigration order and some rude comments won't be leaving anytime soon.

Everyone needs to stop wasting their breath on vain hopes. You tried that shit with the electoral college and it didn't work, Trump is here to stay. I would tell you to save your strength for the congressional elections but most of us live in solid blue urban districts anyway.

It's been less than 1 month, Justinian. Give it time.

If he loses the support of his base (those that supported him in the Republican primaries) and continues to piss off Congressional Republicans, it's conceivable that they would push for him to resign or move for impeachment...I'm sure they'd rather deal with Mike Pence anyways, someone who is more in their own mold. I honestly think that's why Trump is doing all this brazen stuff that his base supports...he knows he owes nothing to any other group, including those Congressional Republicans, and he knows if he loses his base then he's kinda politically screwed.

Ah, the good ol "le drumpf is a fascist" crap I've been hearing so much about. Trump isn't a fascist, he has yet to discredit the ideals of the Enlightenment or state that democracy doesn't work.

North didn't call Trump a fascist, he merely said that Trump's tactics remind him of Mussolini's.

I do, however, think that Trump has done those two things you've mentioned. Let's take a look, for example, at these tweets from yesterday, part of a rant that seems to be continuing today:

The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827867311054974976

What is our country coming to when a judge can halt a Homeland Security travel ban and anyone, even with bad intentions, can come into U.S.?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827981079042805761

By questioning the legitimacy of a federal judge and our nation's courts system, not only is Trump discrediting the Constitution's checks and balances, an implementation of Enlightenment thinker Baron de Montesquieu's separation of powers, but he is also challenging the process by which the federal judge James Robart was appointed by the democratically elected President Bush and unanimously approved by a democratically elected Senate.

He's just throwing a tantrum 'cause he didn't get his way.

Ah, the good ol "le drumpf is a fascist" crap I've been hearing so much about. Trump isn't a fascist, he has yet to discredit the ideals of the Enlightenment or state that democracy doesn't work.

North didn't call Trump a fascist, he merely said that Trump's tactics remind him of Mussolini's.

I do, however, think that Trump has done those two things you've mentioned. Let's take a look, for example, at these tweets from yesterday, part of a rant that seems to be continuing today:

The opinion of this so-called judge, which essentially takes law-enforcement away from our country, is ridiculous and will be overturned!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827867311054974976

What is our country coming to when a judge can halt a Homeland Security travel ban and anyone, even with bad intentions, can come into U.S.?

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/827981079042805761

By questioning the legitimacy of a federal judge and our nation's courts system, not only is Trump discrediting the Constitution's checks and balances, an implementation of Enlightenment thinker Baron de Montesquieu's separation of powers, but he is also challenging the process by which the federal judge James Robart was appointed by the democratically elected President Bush and unanimously approved by a democratically elected Senate.

If you believe that politicians haven't contested court rulings before, I would like to tell you about a wonderful man named Andrew Jackson...
Also, I must applaud you for copying your entire argument from an article on The Independent.

It's been less than 1 month, Justinian. Give it time.

I'd rather not waste my time waiting for something that won't happen.

If he loses the support of his base (those that supported him in the Republican primaries) and continues to piss off Congressional Republicans, it's conceivable that they would push for him to resign or move for impeachment...I'm sure they'd rather deal with Mike Pence anyways, someone who is more in their own mold. I honestly think that's why Trump is doing all this brazen stuff that his base supports...he knows he owes nothing to any other group, including those Congressional Republicans, and he knows if he loses his base then he's kinda politically screwed.

His position as a populist has secured his place, removing Trump now would be political suicide. Given that you have good enough internet to run a forum I suspect you live in a major metropolitan area, no? In which case, your residence is in a democratic stronghold where almost no one voted for Trump, so you've been living in an echo chamber. Journey out beyond the city limits and you will see Trump is not so universally reviled as you think. Also, Mike Pence? Are you seriously saying you want Mike "A little shock kills the love of cock" Pence? You of all people should know how bad that would be.

His position as a populist has secured his place, removing Trump now would be political suicide. Given that you have good enough internet to run a forum I suspect you live in a major metropolitan area, no? In which case, your residence is in a democratic stronghold where almost no one voted for Trump, so you've been living in an echo chamber. Journey out beyond the city limits and you will see Trump is not so universally reviled as you think. Also, Mike Pence? Are you seriously saying you want Mike "A little shock kills the love of cock" Pence? You of all people should know how bad that would be.

Actually, I live in southern West Virginia, in a county where Trump got 74% of the vote. When you stereotype like that you usually end up wrong.

Also, I was stating what I believe Congressional Republicans probably would prefer, not me in particular.

His position as a populist has secured his place, removing Trump now would be political suicide. Given that you have good enough internet to run a forum I suspect you live in a major metropolitan area, no? In which case, your residence is in a democratic stronghold where almost no one voted for Trump, so you've been living in an echo chamber. Journey out beyond the city limits and you will see Trump is not so universally reviled as you think. Also, Mike Pence? Are you seriously saying you want Mike "A little shock kills the love of cock" Pence? You of all people should know how bad that would be.

Actually, I live in southern West Virginia, in a county where Trump got 74% of the vote. When you stereotype like that you usually end up wrong.

Also, I was stating what I believe Congressional Republicans probably would prefer, not me in particular.

Huntington?