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Game Over on Round 5 Day

Root Host: ☆ Princess Abigail ☆

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Leesbra, you're missing an important point, we're on endgame. When we approach an endgame the ideal is for all people to claim their roles, there's no more information to be gained from these roles, so there's no reason for them to w
It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop.

It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop. The current Roled Town are pretty useless at this point and act as innocent child. Cop will get a green result on everyone since the remaining scum is godfather, and bodyguard doesn't care about protecting anyone in particular since we don't have any other mechanically cleared players.

If the Bodyguard and the Cop claim today, then mafia CANNOT counterclaim them today, because otherwise we'll lynch both the conflicting claims.
Because of that, we will have 3 vanilla claims. We can lynch 2 of these claims - one toDay and one in the next Day Phase. So massclaiming right now is the ideal because regardless of what we do we're always at a 50/50 scenario on -Lo, so we might as well already work with a smaller one today so we don't risk lynching a power role, plus have updated readslist and can reread interactions under a new light.

Brief update on the math: 2/3 of lynching town today, and then 1/2 chance of lynching town again next Day means a 1/3 chance total, so in the end my math was still right and we have a 66.67% chance of lynching scum at random if we do this.

Why were you copying and editing your answer to Leesbra?

Exlight, I feel you might be onto something. We know that there has only been one civilian role eliminated (IceT, who helped us get the first mafia), leaving 2 left. So we have 2 vanilla, 2 roled town and 1 mafia. Realistically roled townies wouldn’t claim unless they had already gotten vital information, because a role death would mean mafia are more likely to win.

So I feel like if anyone were to claim as a role without providing proof against a mafia, they themself might be mafia. But then there’s also the fact that this would mean that everyone would claim vanilla town. Problem is with this is that if everyone claims vanilla town, then we can’t prove anyone is vanilla town.

If everyone is safe, no one is safe, and everyone is unsafe.

As ExLight already explained, one of the roles is a bodyguard who doesn't get night results, and the other is a cop whose night results are not useful in finding the last mafia because they are immune to cop checks. However, claiming still proves they are town if nobody counter claims.

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.

My impression had been that it doesn't provide a mathematical advantage. My brain is not kind to math this evening, so I haven't double-checked. Let me see if I can:

4 vs. 1 today
- If two power roles claim, they are virtually cleared and the mafia is forced to claim vanilla.
- Essentially this becomes 2 + [2 vs. 1], so the chance of a randomized correct answer is .33
- If the answer is wrong (.67 probability), the chance is .50 in final three (2 vs 1 with one clear).
I think this calls for a conjunctive probability:
- Probability of right first time = .33
- Probability of wrong first time and right in final three = .67 x .50 = .33
- Probability of wrong both times = .67 x .50 = .33

If nobody claims at all today, that implies a power role is not threatened (because a town power role about to be voted out mechanically must claim), so it'd still be one mafia among three options -- .33 chance today, and if wrong (.67) followed by .50 in final three when everyone claims.

If one power role claims under threat of elimination, four non-claims remain (so 1 in 4 or .25, but the second power role may then also claim if threatened, returning us to .33).

So it is the same? I am not sure I am doing this correctly. It's 2:00 AM lol.

If there is an advantage to mass claiming, it'd be that it alleviates a danger of prematurely hammering a power role before they claim or having a last minute panic vote on a power role at EOD. I think.

I very much welcome criticism if any of this logic is bad. I'm tired.

Leesbra, you're missing an important point, we're on endgame. When we approach an endgame the ideal is for all people to claim their roles, there's no more information to be gained from these roles, so there's no reason for them to w
It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop.

It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop. The current Roled Town are pretty useless at this point and act as innocent child. Cop will get a green result on everyone since the remaining scum is godfather, and bodyguard doesn't care about protecting anyone in particular since we don't have any other mechanically cleared players.

If the Bodyguard and the Cop claim today, then mafia CANNOT counterclaim them today, because otherwise we'll lynch both the conflicting claims.
Because of that, we will have 3 vanilla claims. We can lynch 2 of these claims - one toDay and one in the next Day Phase. So massclaiming right now is the ideal because regardless of what we do we're always at a 50/50 scenario on -Lo, so we might as well already work with a smaller one today so we don't risk lynching a power role, plus have updated readslist and can reread interactions under a new light.

Brief update on the math: 2/3 of lynching town today, and then 1/2 chance of lynching town again next Day means a 1/3 chance total, so in the end my math was still right and we have a 66.67% chance of lynching scum at random if we do this.

Why were you copying and editing your answer to Leesbra?

Yea, I try to write my post in a manner that it follows a logic progression so it's easier for people to follow since I can be confusing. Apparently I ended up pasting the same thing twice and deleting another one when moving things around.

Power Roles not massclaiming and we lynching outside of me can cause the scenario where all Power roles die (3 vanillas in -Lo, which is a 33.33% chance of hitting scum).

It definitely has to be everyone massclaims today (which can bring new info about past interactions up since we can see who tried pushing for the town power roles), or lynching me to guarantee at least one PR makes to -Lo.

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.

My impression had been that it doesn't provide a mathematical advantage. My brain is not kind to math this evening, so I haven't double-checked. Let me see if I can:

4 vs. 1 today
- If two power roles claim, they are virtually cleared and the mafia is forced to claim vanilla.
- Essentially this becomes 2 + [2 vs. 1], so the chance of a randomized correct answer is .33
- If the answer is wrong (.67 probability), the chance is .50 in final three (2 vs 1 with one clear).
I think this calls for a conjunctive probability:
- Probability of right first time = .33
- Probability of wrong first time and right in final three = .67 x .50 = .33
- Probability of wrong both times = .67 x .50 = .33

If nobody claims at all today, that implies a power role is not threatened (because a town power role about to be voted out mechanically must claim), so it'd still be one mafia among three options -- .33 chance today, and if wrong (.67) followed by .50 in final three when everyone claims.

If one power role claims under threat of elimination, four non-claims remain (so 1 in 4 or .25, but the second power role may then also claim if threatened, returning us to .33).

So it is the same? I am not sure I am doing this correctly. It's 2:00 AM lol.

If there is an advantage to mass claiming, it'd be that it alleviates a danger of prematurely hammering a power role before they claim or having a last minute panic vote on a power role at EOD. I think.

I very much welcome criticism if any of this logic is bad. I'm tired.

So it's 1v4 with 2 PRs and 2 citizens right?
if we claim today the goon has to claim citizen as otherwise we just execute both claims. We execute a citizen today and tomorrow. One third chance based on random odds today, one half tomorrow as one PR dies and one confirmed PR remains. 66% chance there.
If we don't claim, the odds are a much less forgiving 50/50. We should always claim here

More on that, I'd argue it's better not to kill exlight here? They weren't suspected before today other than my deepwolf whims and while their logic for a self-vote isn't sound I think mafia in a situation like this would avoid so much attention, although I'm not familiar with exlight's meta
If we're decided we should begin as soon as possible. 

I’m on board. Claims will really help POE too.

I’m on board. Claims will really help POE too.

Alright, that's 3/5. claiming vanilla.

I'm cop.

I'm cop.

Well, other role claimed, sounds about time for me to. Bodyguard.

I feel slightly better knowing my last readslist had the correct PoE

Ok so the lynch today has to be between me, JJJ, or Serif

I feel slightly better knowing my last readslist had the correct PoE

Ok so the lynch today has to be between me, JJJ, or Serif

Has JJJ claimed? If not, I wouldn't be so hasty as it is technically possible the wolf claimed PR
I think having airtight mech here is very important.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

...the PRs shouldnt have claimed roles unless there was more than two PR claims. We made an error.

Actually no nevermind. I misremembered the variant of bodyguard for a moment. Sorry about that

I'm cop.

Well, other role claimed, sounds about time for me to. Bodyguard.

I want you to know that you should feel ok letting me die tonight. You've been here from the start, you have that new player energy, I would love to cheer you on from deadchat tomorrow!