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Game Over on Round 4 Day

Root Host: Arenado Other Hosts: Marzipan

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I agree with Vro. Town looks set to win at this point.

Ngl Neon I think town is winning this game. We have to proceed with the 1/4 chance that Mel rolled doctor anyway because loltown.

Should I claim Dolby? Before I get checked to confirm?

I’d rather you claim at basically start of day before anyone else can get in the thread if you are able but actually I’d rather defer to Melehan

Are we winning?

Because in a world where there's 2 scum and 5 town and a killer 2 kills tonight press us at 3 v 2 v 1

And in a world where there's 1 scum 1 killer and 6 town is 1 v 1 v 4 tomorrow

But Michi can win with anyone which means the wolves probably don't even need to kill him they probably do need to kill the killer though

So I'll add the killer to town but remove Michi and the numbers are the same lol

Like if both kills go off tonight we are in lylo maybe

Also I've got one post left. 

Are we winning?

Because in a world where there's 2 scum and 5 town and a killer 2 kills tonight press us at 3 v 2 v 1

And in a world where there's 1 scum 1 killer and 6 town is 1 v 1 v 4 tomorrow

But Michi can win with anyone which means the wolves probably don't even need to kill him they probably do need to kill the killer though

So I'll add the killer to town but remove Michi and the numbers are the same lol

You're forgetting that the "doctors" have to protect each other, but because of that neither of them will be attacked, only the PoE is really going to be cleared out. The odds that a killer will just go ham on another is non-zero as well tbf depending on who it is. Michi appears to be townsiding rn. I don't think there were 3 wolves for reasons.

At this point in the night phase, the post count stands at:

Dolby: 6
Vroendal: 8
Abbi: 9
Melehan: 2

Please stay below the post cap, thank you.

Ngl Neon I think town is winning this game. We have to proceed with the 1/4 chance that Mel rolled doctor anyway because loltown.

Should I claim Dolby? Before I get checked to confirm?

I’d rather you claim at basically start of day before anyone else can get in the thread if you are able but actually I’d rather defer to Melehan

@Vroendal
I like Dolby's plan.

And Michi "doesn't have to win with town"

And Mel "could be turned into scum if they visited"

So there's a world where it was literally 6 v 6

That's what I'm supposed to believe?

Correct, I just win by surviving.  But as I said the game be boring as all sin if I didn't side with town (and it'd just piss people off if I just dicked around and probably many folks would have rage quit by this point), so I'm intentionally siding with town to keep the game fun.

Also, damn I'm really glad my gut instinct was right, because I was second guessing that I was going to wake up and Doc was going to be a townie role since that's usually my luck.  <.<  Curious what a "wolf framer" is, though my first guess is that they can make a townie false-scan as a wolf when checked?

But Michi can win with anyone which means the wolves probably don't even need to kill him they probably do need to kill the killer though

Also, considering what y'all have been assuming out loud on what my role can be (I can't say if the assumptiojs are right or not, but the fact that those assumptions are enough), I'm pretty sure the wolves would want me dead since I've been siding with you guys.  Because if those assumptions are correct, it'd mean they have slim to 0 control in the day phase, which is much more of a detriment to them than it is town because it means that they have less of a chance to manipulate the vote if someone else controls it.

If I had to guess, the Killer is probably a 3P that will meet their win con if they successfully find and kill me given my own condition is literally just "survive to the end."

By the probably part I meant about their win con guess, since they're obviously a 3P.  Stupid word placement.  <.<

But Michi can win with anyone which means the wolves probably don't even need to kill him they probably do need to kill the killer though

Also, considering what y'all have been assuming out loud on what my role can be (I can't say if the assumptiojs are right or not, but the fact that those assumptions are enough), I'm pretty sure the wolves would want me dead since I've been siding with you guys.  Because if those assumptions are correct, it'd mean they have slim to 0 control in the day phase, which is much more of a detriment to them than it is town because it means that they have less of a chance to manipulate the vote if someone else controls it.

If I had to guess, the Killer is probably a 3P that will meet their win con if they successfully find and kill me given my own condition is literally just "survive to the end."

What you fail to realize is that your survival lowers lylo by one

For instance if there was 3 wolves you and 4 town left for example it would be lylo because you essentially add to their count. You give them a faster win. Where as of you were **actually** town they'd have to kill 2 more

I just realized, Doc as Framer was pushing for a scenario where I'm kept alive so that I can be copped by Svi, long before Michi dropped his vote on Doc. Framer typically can give a false red check on town.

This indicates 2 things: I am never a wolf, and if there is an investigator CC between Svi and Kane, Svi is the town investigator.

But Michi can win with anyone which means the wolves probably don't even need to kill him they probably do need to kill the killer though

Also, considering what y'all have been assuming out loud on what my role can be (I can't say if the assumptiojs are right or not, but the fact that those assumptions are enough), I'm pretty sure the wolves would want me dead since I've been siding with you guys.  Because if those assumptions are correct, it'd mean they have slim to 0 control in the day phase, which is much more of a detriment to them than it is town because it means that they have less of a chance to manipulate the vote if someone else controls it.

If I had to guess, the Killer is probably a 3P that will meet their win con if they successfully find and kill me given my own condition is literally just "survive to the end."

What you fail to realize is that your survival lowers lylo by one

For instance if there was 3 wolves you and 4 town left for example it would be lylo because you essentially add to their count. You give them a faster win. Where as of you were **actually** town they'd have to kill 2 more

This is under the assumption that no kills are blocked. Between 2 doctors, that's an unlikely scenario, and since both doctors know each other and are vouching for each other, town is in a really good position.

I just realized, Doc as Framer was pushing for a scenario where I'm kept alive so that I can be copped by Svi, long before Michi dropped his vote on Doc. Framer typically can give a false red check on town.

This indicates 2 things: I am never a wolf, and if there is an investigator CC between Svi and Kane, Svi is the town investigator.

This is an excellent point, and I think this should be noted for this night so that our investigator can check someone with a bit more worthwhile cause...possibly Kane?

At the very least, I do agree that I think we can safely put you in a more townie slot for now and not waste a night having you scanned.

I say that Svi should cop Neon. That's the most loudly ambiguous slot at this point and if we can resolve Neon's alignment tonight, it frees town up to hunt for the Killer.

At this point, my town core looks like this: Dolby, Svi, KoD, Michi, myself.

That leaves Neon, Kane, and Vro. Kane I believe is the scum investigator CC, which leaves the Killer as either Vro or Neon, and Vro is incredibly unlikely unless the only thing Jos did the entire game was submit a N1 kill.