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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

Quick breakdown of each player's votes, how suspicious they seem to me, and what links I could possibly infer from each player individually.

Breakdown

D1, Red Mones votes Hapi, then Melehan, then unvotes, then votes Ruguo. D2, he is the second to vote Ruguo. D3, he votes Gerrick. D4, he votes TGN.  D5, he ends with a vote on Gerrick. D6, he votes BSR. D7, he votes Doc, unvotes, votes him again, votes me, then unvotes.
Suspicion levels - Low, I don't think he votes Ruguo at the end of D1.
Scum links - Moot. Is either distancing or not w/w with Ruguo and Gerrick.

D1, I vote Michi, then unvote, then vote, then unvote. D2, I vote TGN, then Ruguo. D3, I vote BSR, then Sapph, then TGN. D4 I vote BSR, then Kane. D5 I vote Kane. D6, I vote Moot. D7, I vote Moot, then Wisch.
Suspicion levels - I mean, to me this looks PRETTY DARN TOWNIE and has signs all over of townie doubt and progression but ok I guess.
Scum links - For y'all to decide. I'm not w/w with anyone.

D1, Gerrick is the first to vote Michi, D2, he votes me, is near the last to vote Ruguo, D3, he votes BSR, D4, he votes Doc, unvotes, and votes TGN. D5, he votes cozmik. D6, he votes cozmik then is the last to vote BSR. D7, he votes me.
Suspicion levels - Moderate, but I don't think he tunnels cozmik like that.
Scum link - Moot.

D1, Anubhav doesn't vote. D2, he is the last to vote Ruguo. D3, he vote Sapph last then doesn't vote. D4, he is the last to vote Kane. D5, he is the second to vote Moot. D6, he leads the charge on voting Moot. D7, he votes Wischland which ties her with Doc.
Suspicion levels - High, has had interesting voting times.
Scum links - Inconclusive, possibly Doc. Not w/w with Wintermoot.

D1, Michi doesn't vote, D2, he votes Alexander/ExLight, then votes Ruguo later. D3, he doesn't vote. D4, he votes BSR. D5, he doesn't vote. (Michi you're a dead man walking, 3 days without a vote?) D6, he leads the vote on BSR. D7, he leads the vote on Wischland.
Suspicion levels - Extreme, has been lying low a whole lot, has led the votes on the last two townies.
Scum link - Moot. Not w/w with ExLight.

D1, Wintermoot votes Red. D2, he votes me. D3, he votes Sapph. D4, he votes TGN. D5, he votes Doc. D6, he votes Doc. D7, he votes Doc.
Suspicion levels - Moderate, started off voting interesting choices, went into a tunnel.
Scum links - Not w/w with Doc.

D1, Nyght votes Moot, then votes Hapi. D2, votes me. D3, votes BSR. D4, doesn't vote. D5, votes Moot. D6, doesn't vote. D7, votes me.
Suspicion levels - Moderate, has been lying low a little and has voted some town.
Scum links - Not w/w with Moot.

D1, Doc votes Hapi. D2, he votes me. D3, he votes TGN. D4, he votes TGN. D5, he votes Kane. D6, he doesn't vote. D7, he votes himself.
Suspicion levels - Low, looks like townie tunnels to me.
Scum links -

D1, Legacy's slot doesn't vote. D2, it also doesn't vote. D3, he votes Kane, then votes Sapph. D4, he votes Kane. D5, he votes Kane. D6, he votes Moot, D7, he votes Doc.
Suspicion levels - Low, tunnels on a townie with suspicious votes,
Scum links - Not w/w with Doc.

D1, ExLight's slot doesn't vote. D2, it also doesn't vote. D3, he votes TGN. D4, he votes TGN. D5, he votes me, D6, he votes BSR, then Moot, then BSR. D7, he votes me, then Doc, then me.
Suspicion levels - Moderate, but looks like townie tunnels.
Scum links -

What I'm gathering from my look-over is that especially Michi but also Anubhav have had suspicious voting patterns. A lot of players look like they could be conceivably paired up on a scum team with Moot imo. Doc isn't w/w with a lot of players imo. I think I want my counter-wagon to be Michi, but y'all can do your own analysis and form your own conclusions.

I just don't see a doomed wolf making the sequence of posts starting with this one. You can tell from the way he's writing that Vro thinks he's getting lynched today so why all this?

I admit it makes much more sense if Vro is a wolf. The points made by ExLight, particularly the soft-related points, I all agree with. It would also open Red Mones as a much more likely suspect (since the wagons were Ruguo/Vroendel). But, as much as Vro being a wolf makes this game ten times more simple and probably solves the game for us today, I'm just not reconnecting that with the person I'm seeing in the thread right now.

Regardless of if Vro lynch is inevitable today, I'm going to be scrutinizing some of the votes on Vro shortly. If Vro is town, you'd better believe scum will jump on him today. If Vro is a wolf, I think other wolves will probably bus him for cred once the push on him goes far enough. I'm going to look for bad points on Vro or people who have had sudden opinion shifts on him because, regardless of what alignment Vro actually is, there are wolves around him who I want to spend my time flushing out.

Words can be faked and tone can be faked, but one thing a wolf can never do is fake their votes. They can make them confusing, but at the end of the day reading the votes is one of the best ways to catch the wolves. Melehan was on that path at the beginning, and she died pretty quickly.

What do you mean votes can’t be faked lol
Mafia can manipulate votes pretty easily.

Also Anubhav saying Mel for N2 is really interesting because that’s the Night she died.

I'm trying to at least keep up with the game so if I feel like getting back into it I can hop back on the train.

What I've noticed though, Ex, since I'm basically just reading and not bothering to try to look at subtext anymore is that on the tone of your posts for today, and reaching back to the last couple days, is and has been incredibly frustrated, and while that's understandable given that I at least and probably most of town feels like we've collectively played real shit, at the same time that's probably doing a lot of damage to people's willingness to listen to your arguments, because it probably reminds them of exactly how badly it feels like we're playing (or comes across as attempts to intimidate, as with Nyght a little ways up).
At the same time, just on the basis of that tone I'm pretty much totally convinced you're town.
In contrast, Vro has seemed almost completely unruffled for most of this time, which seems kinda weird, but that confidence is probably a big contributing factor in why people have been kinda knuckling under to the narratives he's been pushing. I can't really say this is uncharacteristic, cause this is how he was behaving as town when Lau was pushing him, but at the same time town is also in a significantly worse position now than we were in the last game and that doesn't seem to faze him at all.
shit i'm basically back on the 'playing the game' wagon by doing this sort of analysis aren't i, fuck

I agree I’ve been taking a more aggressive approach to the game and in a way AtEing, but it has to be done. I’m not taking anything personally, and I never said Town played badly (in fact I think I said the opposite quite a few times, including pointing out Town wasn’t exactly in a tight spot and that they shouldn’t let the mislynches affect them much because it’s fine to make mistakes). Sorry if any of you felt that way.

I feel like the main reason I’ve been feeling frustrated is because I keep trying to coordinate or ask people to not be inactive but some seem to be doing the bare minimum and only to defend themselves instead of working as a team, which is something that usually hurts Town itself A LOT from my experience.

I'm glad I'm pretty sure ExLight is town because if ExLight isn't town in this game then I think we're pretty screwed.

Notes for if we go into ELO after I die or everyone starts panicking before I'm in thread:

ELO - Eliminate (a wolf) or lose. Happens if we mislynch one more townsperson at any point in the game unless there is another successful defender protect.

In ELO, votes will be frozen. Don't panic vote! If one townsperson votes for another townsperson before the wolves have voted, town pretty much effectively loses.

The "optimal" strategy for dealing with this sort of ELO is as follows:

1. Every active thread member chips in and creates a list of everyone alive, from most to least likely to be town based on group consensus.
2. Two players , who we decide almost certainly contains at least one wolf, vote for each other.
3. Everyone votes for one of those two players (after a lengthy discussion) preferably in the order of most to least suspicious.

That's how I would advise dealing with ELO if it ever comes up.

I feel like I really need to hear more from... anybody who isn't ExLight or Vro at this stage or else I'm really going to struggle narrowing down my reads at all.

Honestly, at this juncture I think the better part of how scum has managed to avoid detection is hiding in between all of the posts.
While I found myself increasingly convinced by the arguments against Vro yesterday, after sleeping on it and thinking on LoS' new posts, I'm basically dead certain that rather than the high-volume-of-posting players we need to be looking at those who are staying primarily quiet, making votes late, committing to mislynches and riding them to their conclusions, and that looks like Gerrick, Michi, Wintermoot to me, with a (low but non-zero) possibility of being a Red in place of one of them.
I fear we may be tunnelling in on Vro on the basis of trusting Minish's very early read that everyone has basically taken for granted at this point that we are/were dealing with a powerwolf, trusting Exlight to basically be town at this point and so looking at the other most active poster as 'well, he's the only other dude that fits the bill', when the vote records seem to reveal to my mind that most of our mislynches were started and driven by town, and scum just rode herd to keep one of theirs from being the majority lynch (if, indeed, they were ever up for lynch at all).

Also: guess I'm back

Welcome back, Doc!

Vote: Wintermoot

I feel like he is the most likely wolf in town-Vro worlds and the only person who, if they flipped red, might be able to prevent a Vro lynch later on. I think a Vro lynch is probably going to happen today (and I'm not going to fight against it much further to be honest, I've stated my points and if town are dedicated to lynching Vro then lynching him today is the call you should make) but I'd at least like some discussion here.

ExLight please don't murder me I'm sorry.

ExLight please don't murder me I'm sorry.

Smiles, please. Don’t scatter the votes like that.

ExLight please don't murder me I'm sorry.

Smiles, please. Don’t scatter the votes like that.

I would much rather have my vote on Wintermoot than anywhere else at this moment in time, honestly. Not scattering votes is nice and all but I want to have at least one wagon I think contains a wolf or otherwise we're just wasting our time and are probably just going to lose.

If we have a single mislynch here we might still lose even if we lynch scum next Day (aka armored titan). If we’re on the right track with Vro and an alternate wagon appears scum might just powerwolf and get away yet with another mislynch.

Moot gives little information compared to Vro, and isn’t nearly as scummy in my opinion. Moot flipping scum clears Vro and that’s it. Vro flipping scum likely clears Gerrick, Moot, and Michi. It’s not hard to see which one is better here.

I already presented a really strong case on Vro based solely from D1-D3; and I could make one that is ten times larger if I were to do D4-D8. You’re saying you just can’t see scum Vro doing the work he’s doing in thread right now, but if he really cared why would he only start putting effort in analyzing stuff like votes not after 3 or 4 mislynches in a row (most of them also pushed by him), but only when his ass is on the line.

Please, by splitting wagons that’s likely turning this into another 50/50.

Legacy, you defended Moot yourself by pointing out that their 8 players suspecting him likely had multiple scum in it. Don’t do this change of heart on me now.