Werewolf 24: Attack on Titan
Posts: 1842 Views: 127220

Post #158116 February 23, 2021, 08:59:51 PM

@Michi @Red Mones
@NyghtOwl @Anubhav Ghosh
@Gerrick @Wintermoot @Doc

Town might lose depending on what happens toDay. I know this sort of game can be draining but try to be significantly active in the endgame.

All Town has to get on the same wavelength and coordinate not only plans but votes. The style in endgame changes a lot and votes have to be cast upon discussion rather than relying on last second votes like early game, so please don’t just pop during EoD and disappear.

Post #158120 February 23, 2021, 09:26:27 PM

Night 1: NyghtOwl
Night 3: Red Mones
Night 7: Legacy of Smiles

Post #158123 February 23, 2021, 10:21:21 PM

Post #158125 February 23, 2021, 11:01:09 PM

To the best of my ability, this is my documentation of the entire voting record and subsequent results of D1 and D2, I shall continue working on this until all the Days complete, but I wanted to get this Part 1 out now while there's lots of time and to give a check-point for myself. It is ordered chronologically. If there are any mistakes that remain even after my proofreading, please do not hesitate to point them out. The purpose of this is to give a comprehensive outline of what has transpired in the game and to give everyone a chance to analyze while I'm here or while I'm dead.

Part 1 -

D1 Voting Record

D1 Final Vote Count

D2 Voting Record

D2 Final Vote Count

Post #158126 February 23, 2021, 11:08:36 PM

where’s your damn list Vro

you already softed Doc and isnt going to out the targets? do you realize how off that is?

Post #158127 February 23, 2021, 11:10:10 PM

ExLight posted on February 23, 2021, 11:08:36 PM

where’s your damn list Vro

you already softed Doc and isnt going to out the targets? do you realize how off that is?

Well excuse me, I was working.

Night 1 - Gerrick
Night 3 - Red Mones
Night 7 - Legacy of Smiles

Post #158128 February 23, 2021, 11:12:35 PM

Why did you think scum would go for Gerrick N1?

Post #158129 February 23, 2021, 11:21:08 PM

ExLight posted on February 23, 2021, 11:12:35 PM

Why did you think scum would go for Gerrick N1?

Process of elimination mostly. I definitely think that any new players, guests, and returnees from long ago wouldn't be killed first, even Minish, though I think next game she'd be on the chopping block.
That leaves - Red, myself, Gerrick, Sapph, Michi, Kane, BSR, Moot, and Doc.

Red hosted last game he needs some gameplay, BSR was very silent and had taken fire, Sapph was very silent and had taken fire, I was for certain going to take fire for my unvote, and Michi had been under suspicion. It doesn't feel like Doc or Moot would be attacked, they didn't have a huge impact on my feelings on their alignment either way.

That leaves Gerrick, who would also be a great kill because he's a stronger town player, he's survived to the end of several games in a row so it's about his time, his reads-list was very thorough and posting it felt like a townie thing to do, and his tone seemed good.

Post #158130 February 24, 2021, 12:12:04 AM

Ok, so here’s yet ANOTHER inconsistency. If you were the Defender as successfully blocked a kill you’d know Gerrick a much higher chance of being town. Yet when Minish and Red pushed him at the end of EoD by accusing him of protecting Silver not only you stayed quiet but you liked their posts.

Post #158131 February 24, 2021, 12:17:28 AM

ExLight posted on February 24, 2021, 12:12:04 AM

Ok, so here’s yet ANOTHER inconsistency. If you were the Defender as successfully blocked a kill you’d know Gerrick a much higher chance of being town. Yet when Minish and Red pushed him at the end of EoD by accusing him of protecting Silver not only you stayed quiet but you liked their posts.

50% is 50%. I wouldn't get caught in the trap of implicitly believing all those I would have defended on nights with no kills. It's foolishness to completely discount those targets forever afterward, and N1 has the greatest possible options to kill from.

Post #158132 February 24, 2021, 12:26:20 AM

Vroendal posted on February 24, 2021, 12:17:28 AM

ExLight posted on February 24, 2021, 12:12:04 AM
Ok, so here’s yet ANOTHER inconsistency. If you were the Defender as successfully blocked a kill you’d know Gerrick a much higher chance of being town. Yet when Minish and Red pushed him at the end of EoD by accusing him of protecting Silver not only you stayed quiet but you liked their posts.
50% is 50%. I wouldn't get caught in the trap of implicitly believing all those I would have defended on nights with no kills. It's foolishness to completely discount those targets forever afterward, and N1 has the greatest possible options to kill from.

It’s not 50/50, lol. Without a kill even being stopped the chances of him being Town at D2 were 16/20 aka 75%. If you really were a defender his odds would be even higher like 90%+.

Don’t come with this “I’m not going to clear anyone” argument because if you see an allegedly townread that might’ve been targeted for a nightkill being pushed the natural thing isn’t to go “oh well I guess there’s a minuscule chance of them being scum”. That’s as absurd as watching someone with a green check get mislynched because there was a chance of them being godfather.

Post #158133 February 24, 2021, 12:34:11 AM

ExLight posted on February 24, 2021, 12:26:20 AM

It’s not 50/50, lol. Without a kill even being stopped the chances of him being Town at D2 were 16/20 aka 75%. If you really were a defender his odds would be even higher like 90%+.

Don’t come with this “I’m not going to clear anyone” argument because if you see an allegedly townread that might’ve been targeted for a nightkill being pushed the natural thing isn’t to go “oh well I guess there’s a minuscule chance of them being scum”. That’s as absurd as watching someone with a green check get mislynched because there was a chance of them being godfather.

Yeah, but that has nothing to do with discounting decent arguments against him. The likelihood that the target a Defender chose during a night when there was a kill (and we don't even know that for sure but I'm proceeding if it is) was attacked and defended by that Defender is 50%.

At the beginning of the game there is always a higher chance that someone is town than scum because there are that many more townies. That doesn't mean anything here.

Only the Seer can clear someone for certain. Consistencies that you fail to discount are that I have not yet voted Gerrick despite a very high early town read voting him, that I've been town-reading him explicitly since D2, and I have advocated for him at points.

Post #158134 February 24, 2021, 12:36:21 AM

Oooooooooooooooooooooookkkkkkkk, yeah

Vote: Vroendal

This discussion has been far better proving Vro is scum then the past couple days combined lol. Shoulda listened the first time.

Post #158135 February 24, 2021, 12:36:50 AM

Purely out of curiosity and not to make a point, if you're a defender and successfully protect a player who has exactly rand chances of being town on N1 (16/20 so 80%) then you have an 89.5% of your target being town assuming the other defender uses a random number generator to pick their target, including themselves. This percentage us higher when you account for reads from both yourself and the other defender.

Not making a point here I just really enjoy maths/statistics and it was already brought up so I thought I might as well work it out and share.

Post #158139 February 24, 2021, 12:45:45 AM

*Legacy of Smiles posted on February 24, 2021, 12:36:50 AM

Purely out of curiosity and not to make a point, if you're a defender and successfully protect a player who has exactly rand chances of being town on N1 (16/20 so 80%) then you have an 89.5% of your target being town assuming the other defender uses a random number generator to pick their target, including themselves. This percentage us higher when you account for reads from both yourself and the other defender.

Not making a point here I just really enjoy maths/statistics and it was already brought up so I thought I might as well work it out and share.

I forgot to account for the defender knowing that they themselves are town oops.

Poll

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?