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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

I have to admit, I find that odd at this point. I could understand it earlier in the game when it was such a struggle to keep up and people were just doing their best to get votes in, but the pace has been much easier to keep up with for the last day or two, and I have a hard time believing that half a dozen people are too busy to be involved at this pace for multiple days in a row.

I'm starting to wonder if for some it's a strategy to make things happen at the very end so there's little time for people to react.

I have to admit, I find that odd at this point. I could understand it earlier in the game when it was such a struggle to keep up and people were just doing their best to get votes in, but the pace has been much easier to keep up with for the last day or two, and I have a hard time believing that half a dozen people are too busy to be involved at this pace for multiple days in a row.

I'm starting to wonder if for some it's a strategy to make things happen at the very end so there's little time for people to react.

I think it's also worth noting that EoD is probably a bad time for EU timezones (5am for me) so leaving discussion until EoD leads to things like the Sapphiron lynch happening.

I accidentally cut a sentence out of my last message but I meant to include not everyone being active and able to talk over stuff in EoD leading to poor and / or scum-driven decisions like the Sapphiron lynch.

I have to vote every round so I'm going to put a vote on the most suspicious person I can see. And that person is Vro.

Vote: Vroendal

I have to admit, I find that odd at this point. I could understand it earlier in the game when it was such a struggle to keep up and people were just doing their best to get votes in, but the pace has been much easier to keep up with for the last day or two, and I have a hard time believing that half a dozen people are too busy to be involved at this pace for multiple days in a row.

I'm starting to wonder if for some it's a strategy to make things happen at the very end so there's little time for people to react.

That's not very fair at all. I have a full time job and very little time with my fiance when I'm not at work. So it is a struggle to keep up with things. I'm doing my best but days like today where I have the day off are really my only time to try and catch up. That's two or three days worth of forum posts to comb through.

Like, who would Vro actually be a wolf with though?

Excluding Vro and myself, there are ten possible teammates (of which two would be wolves). Pretty confident he's not with Moot, ExLight or cozmik. Leaning away from him being with Doc because of the "why are you resisting the TGN lynch?" post. I don't think wolf-Nyght busses here, possibly if Vro is lynchproof but that's about it. Probably not Michi, I don't think wolf-Vro draws attention between the two the way he did on D1 when he could have bussed for cred. For me, that leaves two of Gerrick/Anubhav/Wischland/Red Mones as the other wolves.

People who are pushing Vro, can you point out where my logic is wrong here or tell me please who you think Vro's most likely scumbuddies in that list would be?

That's not very fair at all. I have a full time job and very little time with my fiance when I'm not at work. So it is a struggle to keep up with things. I'm doing my best but days like today where I have the day off are really my only time to try and catch up. That's two or three days worth of forum posts to comb through.

That's why I said that I find it hard to believe that half a dozen people cumulatively are in that situation, rather than any particular individual. I'm sure there are people that are legitimately busy.

Like, who would Vro actually be a wolf with though?

Excluding Vro and myself, there are ten possible teammates (of which two would be wolves). Pretty confident he's not with Moot, ExLight or cozmik. Leaning away from him being with Doc because of the "why are you resisting the TGN lynch?" post. I don't think wolf-Nyght busses here, possibly if Vro is lynchproof but that's about it. Probably not Michi, I don't think wolf-Vro draws attention between the two the way he did on D1 when he could have bussed for cred. For me, that leaves two of Gerrick/Anubhav/Wischland/Red Mones as the other wolves.

People who are pushing Vro, can you point out where my logic is wrong here or tell me please who you think Vro's most likely scumbuddies in that list would be?

I’m sure Doc is a strong option of scumbuddy if Vro flips. Doc saying “why are you running away from TNG” actually gives Vro an excuse to vote and mislynch a townie while diluting the responsibility; also with TGN’s flip Doc has been trying to convince people that it clears Vro, which is not the case at all.

Third scum would likely be among Gerrick/Wisch/Anubv/Nyghts/Coz. Since Anubv has some weird interactions with Vro I feel like they’re a decent candidate for third scum if Vro flips. Gerrick and Wisch are kinda nulls to me so they fall a bit right behind. My only issue with this is that if this is the team they’re kinda powerwolfing openly here, which is a bit unlikely; so it’s a bit hard to just name someone from the top of my head without recheck interactions.

If we assume at least one scum has been distancing HARD I can think of either Moot based on him distancing Vro or Red distancing Silver. But I think scum would be playing really safe throughout the game since they took a loss really early on and considering they’ve been getting blocked left and right.

Got to admit that I'm worried that Gerrick/Nyght/Wisch fit on just about any scumteam because of a very limited number of meaningful interactions I see between them and living players. I think there's probably a wolf or wolves in this trio in the order of suspicion Gerrick>Wisch>Nyght.

The only thing I'm hung up about is that if we proceed under the thinking that neither Moot nor Legacy are the wolves, that means that the Seer lynch was entirely made up of town, which just seems a little odd.

I think ... I vote Wisch here, to be honest. I'm not reading scum from her posting tone, but I'm getting the impression that she's been playing it safe. She definitely feels like she's been under the radar for most of the game, and that alone really worries me. I could see a Gerrick/Wisch team based on this -

Also kinda sus of Gerrick. On the one hand, his vote shortly after Sapph's on BSR may be an indication that the two were working together as part of a seer army. But Gerrick also didn't do anything to try and save Sapph later when just one vote on TGN would have done the trick. Was he offline at the time? Sorta a weird disparity, so I'm not really sure what's going on there.

And then switching to this -

Also not really sure where those votes on Gerrick are coming from. Maybe it's just cause I have trouble reading him, but there's nothing that's really stuck out either way about him to me. Perhaps someone could explain that for me? Right now it really seems like people are digging up old dirt rather than looking through the events of the last day phase. While looking at old clues is important, it kinda feels like discussion is being directed away from recent events.

This post also kind of pings me now after looking at it and knowing TGN's alignment.

So I've been reading through all of Ruguo's posts again to try and get a better idea of things and this really jumped out at me in light of recent discussion, so I wanted to note my thoughts before they faded into brain mush. I was kinda hesitant in regards to Ruguo training/helping a scum TGN in the open to get town cred, because I thought Ruguo pressured TGN way more than I would expect if they were scumbuds, even to the point of starting a bandwagon. But the fact that Ruguo brings up their helping of new players here as part of their defense makes me think it may have been a much more coordinated effort to get town cred. That would also explain the sudden (in my opinion) drop of their TGN vote after TGN only kinda fulfilled their request for more logical arguments to instead vote Vro, possibly to head off any bandwagon that Mel could create by voting for Ruguo. Obviously the bandwagon gained traction very quickly and ended up on Ruguo anyway, but that doesn't seem to be what the scum expected/wanted at all.

I don't know if I'll be able to check back in before EoD tonight, so for the above reasons, I'm going to:
Vote: TGN

If I do make it back, I'll try to poke through everything with Sapph to see if I think that has more weight, but at the moment TGN seems like a better bet to me.

I went into this day expecting to vote Moot, but honestly I think his defense sounds like it's coming from a town perspective, at least to me. I honestly don't know about Gerrick, I suppose the results of a Wisch lynch could perhaps guide us a little more, but beyond any links I think Wisch has been lying low a little too much now that I think about it, in this situation it's the optimal ploy for a wolf to do if town are going to eat each other based on lynching the Seer with only town.

Vote - Wischland

I have to admit, I find that odd at this point. I could understand it earlier in the game when it was such a struggle to keep up and people were just doing their best to get votes in, but the pace has been much easier to keep up with for the last day or two, and I have a hard time believing that half a dozen people are too busy to be involved at this pace for multiple days in a row.

I'm starting to wonder if for some it's a strategy to make things happen at the very end so there's little time for people to react.

For me, there’s a general sense of fatigue and discouragement from both the pace and our complete inability to lynch an actual wolf. Also IRL busyness giving me an excuse not to check the game until I know eod is approaching.

Got to admit that I'm worried that Gerrick/Nyght/Wisch fit on just about any scumteam because of a very limited number of meaningful interactions I see between them and living players. I think there's probably a wolf or wolves in this trio in the order of suspicion Gerrick>Wisch>Nyght.

Not sure I agree with Nyght. I’m null on Wisch. Gerrick though...

I’m nearly convinced they’re scum. One thing that pinged me was when HumanDawn got killed overnight, Gerrick voted for me so fast the next morning. The wagon didn’t pick up. But I felt like that was an attempt to keep the sus on me after the Sapph fiasco.

The more I read of cozmik, the more town she feels to me honestly.

It’s cuz I am town. 

Vote: Gerrick

In case I don’t get back to the game in time for eod, this is my top scum read.

folks, stop just voting scumleans and bailing out and consider voting who you think might be scum with your scumlean

we need to concentrate votes :aaaAAA:

if all wagons have 1 votes all it takes is one scum to move their vote

*top scumleans and bailing out

I’ll make the updated votecount soon but I really want either a Vro or Doc lynch today

This is what I'm seeing

Vote Count:

Vroendal - 2 ExLight, NyghtOwl
Wischland - 2 Michi, Vroendal
Doc - 1 Wintermoot
Gerrick - 1 cozmikrae
Wintermoot - 1 Doc

Not Voting:
Red Mones, Gerrick, Anubhav Ghosh, Wischland, Legacy of Smiles