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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

- Vroendal accuses Hapi vs Doc of distancing. (why "distancing" instead of real opposition?)

- Vro unvotes Michi. I hate this. He provided a good reasoning that started the wagon and kept saying on how much a possible Michi lynch would provide information, but then willingly backs off (Michi hadn't even posted in the thread for a while now) and says he'll "give Michi a chance". He then votes again off in the following page. This makes me think Vro and Michi aren't likely to be on the same team, with Vro coming off as scummy in this.

Page 17:
- Vro removes his vote. I don't remember anyone "uncomfortable" with the Michi vote. I don't see why they didn't vote Hapi (if they wanted to do her will they'd've voted, and if they thought she was Town he would've kept it). This comes off as a scummy way to not appear on the final vote counts and bank on people's laziness to not remember what happened at EoD.

I had been thinking distancing before Doc talked about guilt. Originally I was going to post this statement but reconsidered: "Question for Doc: Why did you hold back pushing the advantage against Hapi despite advocating for her D1 demise in the past few games? Whether or not you wanted to get information out of other players first, the total lack of comment on the situation instead of first mentioning your personal views then commenting to look elsewhere seems slightly suspicious to me.

Do you want her to get lynched with as little pushing from you as possible to limit the suspicion from interaction, or do you want her around as a distraction while you lynch other players?"

Then he posted this, so I dropped that lead -

If I thought anyone could convince her to change her playstyle, I'd push for that instead, but frankly imo it's a lost cause and the only reason I haven't voted Hapi yet is guilt, because even though I have nothing against her personally it could definitely look like I have some sort of axe to grind.
Guilt: my one weakness.

I unvoted Michi the first time just as much to make myself keep an open mind then as to prompt him to respond. The mere fact that Michi hadn't posted in a while also gave me pause, as I considered that Michi would be more likely to combat pushes against him as scum.

As for players being uncomfortable with Michi's vote, I felt that a lot of people weren't sold on it because a lot of people made posts after my push without mentioning it whatsoever, which signals discomfort to me. A lot  people did directly state it though -

Players stating discomfort on Michi's lynch

Neither Hapi nor Michi seem scummy to me.

My one hesitation with the Michi wagon is that it seems he possibly gets easy suspicions on him a lot? I would prefer his lynch over Hapi's right now though.

For me, I'm not convinced on the Michi bandwagon. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems awfully convoluted for D1. If he's a wolf, he could have jumped on any of the wagons that could have formed earlier in the day and nobody would be the wiser because it's all just guessing. He could have safety voted for another wolf to put distance between him and the wolf in the event one of them got killed later. I understand none of us have much to go on so I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems awfully convoluted a strategy for him to be playing on D1 when it's not necessary.

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

I'm not sure here. I'm kinda feeling Michi, kinda not feeling Michi ya feel?

Seems like he might be the easy lynch which I hate. But also Vro had a fair point about him.

Okay no I remembered a post and went back to check who said it. Michi tried to direct cop to check Mele so I think I just go there for that plus the meta thing. I don't feel great about it though but eh.

As for why I don't vote for the wagon. I don't think there's a valid reason to vote for Michi. I don't like this wagon and I think that it's basis is ridiculous. Michi might be scum by I don't see no lynching D1 as a "tell"

Also, I express my discomfort on the use of meta reading to lynch people on the first day phase, because it's pretty much making a mountain of a molehill, and it usually leads nowhere. I am guilty of that sometimes but there it is. Meta is a big part of the game, and I have used it sometimes to support gut feelings, but on the first day though.

This just furthers my mindset. If Michi flips town I'm hard voting Vro forever til they die, because meta this reads to me like Michi from LotR wolf and not meets this reads too me like Michi right this was gonna be different and now it's the same meta bs getting some inno town lynched D1. Nobody is gonna listen to me but I think this wagon needs to be rethought.

If Michi is wolf I think we got lucky honestly.

As for players being uncomfortable with Michi's vote, I felt that a lot of people weren't sold on it because a lot of people made posts after my push without mentioning it whatsoever, which signals discomfort to me. A lot  people did directly state it though -

Players stating discomfort on Michi's lynch

Neither Hapi nor Michi seem scummy to me.

My one hesitation with the Michi wagon is that it seems he possibly gets easy suspicions on him a lot? I would prefer his lynch over Hapi's right now though.

For me, I'm not convinced on the Michi bandwagon. I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems awfully convoluted for D1. If he's a wolf, he could have jumped on any of the wagons that could have formed earlier in the day and nobody would be the wiser because it's all just guessing. He could have safety voted for another wolf to put distance between him and the wolf in the event one of them got killed later. I understand none of us have much to go on so I'm not saying it's impossible, but it seems awfully convoluted a strategy for him to be playing on D1 when it's not necessary.

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

I'm not sure here. I'm kinda feeling Michi, kinda not feeling Michi ya feel?

Seems like he might be the easy lynch which I hate. But also Vro had a fair point about him.

Okay no I remembered a post and went back to check who said it. Michi tried to direct cop to check Mele so I think I just go there for that plus the meta thing. I don't feel great about it though but eh.

As for why I don't vote for the wagon. I don't think there's a valid reason to vote for Michi. I don't like this wagon and I think that it's basis is ridiculous. Michi might be scum by I don't see no lynching D1 as a "tell"

Also, I express my discomfort on the use of meta reading to lynch people on the first day phase, because it's pretty much making a mountain of a molehill, and it usually leads nowhere. I am guilty of that sometimes but there it is. Meta is a big part of the game, and I have used it sometimes to support gut feelings, but on the first day though.

This just furthers my mindset. If Michi flips town I'm hard voting Vro forever til they die, because meta this reads to me like Michi from LotR wolf and not meets this reads too me like Michi right this was gonna be different and now it's the same meta bs getting some inno town lynched D1. Nobody is gonna listen to me but I think this wagon needs to be rethought.

If Michi is wolf I think we got lucky honestly.

Most of them aren't opposed to the idea of a Michi lynch. I'd say only Kane and Mel are vehemently against his lynch.
And so what if they're uncomfortable with it? That's even better, because this is exactly the kind of interaction we want if someone flips scum, people hesitating to vote them and wasting votes in other places. You literally made a solid case on him that convinced a bunch of players, backing off like this gives the impression you only wanted to start the wagon and then distance yourself from any responsibility that could come from it in case of a mislynch. What if your case on them was right? Wouldn't it pay off?
By removing your vote you're not even saving them. I'm assuming you're going to say didn't vote Hapi instead because she was Townie, what did you get in the end other than putting one of your Townreads in the lynch chance and getting them lynched?

You end D1 with a pretty nasty scumlean to me ùmú

Most of them aren't opposed to the idea of a Michi lynch. I'd say only Kane and Mel are vehemently against his lynch.
And so what if they're uncomfortable with it? That's even better, because this is exactly the kind of interaction we want if someone flips scum, people hesitating to vote them and wasting votes in other places. You literally made a solid case on him that convinced a bunch of players, backing off like this gives the impression you only wanted to start the wagon and then distance yourself from any responsibility that could come from it in case of a mislynch. What if your case on them was right? Wouldn't it pay off?
By removing your vote you're not even saving them. I'm assuming you're going to say didn't vote Hapi instead because she was Townie, what did you get in the end other than putting one of your Townreads in the lynch chance and getting them lynched?

You end D1 with a pretty nasty scumlean to me ùmú

I trust players who have played with Michi/have played WW for far longer than I have more than myself, those players couldn't ALL be wolves trying to save him, their opinions felt validated in their own minds and that gave me pause. I didn't try to save him because I agree that my case was pretty good, but I also wasn't town-reading Hapi at all, she was a Null read to me at that point. I think Michi is capable of much better plays as scum, his hesitation was making me bring him up to a Null read, so I had two Null reads, both of whom appeared to oppose me. I hedged my bets. If my case against Michi was right, it would have paid off, but I still don't know if my case was right on the basis of Michi's alignment. Neither lynch seemed great, neither seemed horrible.

Also I'm pretty confident coz isn't a wolf now... no wolf pack would be stupid enough to kill the one person voting for one of them

You realize the obvious WIFOM inherent in that statement, right?
"No wolf pack would be stupid enough to do this!"
'They'd never believe we'd be crazy enough to do this, so we should do it!'

Kane, can you please explain why you found BSR, specifically, suspicious and why you kept voting him after?

I guess I'll say this again but rephrased.  In D1, I voted him because he was the player that triggering the most alarm bells in my gut.  That was also from meta because I seem to remember them not being active in the games I read through and played, especially A Husk in the Masses where they were scum. (I just realized I did not notice/had forgotten they were in LOTR werewolf)  I honestly don't remember much of D2 now but I think I may have voted for them then because they still seemed the most suspicious of the players I found suspicious at the time.

As promised (since TGN turned out to be Town), I won't defend myself more unfortunately.

Also I'm pretty confident coz isn't a wolf now... no wolf pack would be stupid enough to kill the one person voting for one of them

You realize the obvious WIFOM inherent in that statement, right?
"No wolf pack would be stupid enough to do this!"
'They'd never believe we'd be crazy enough to do this, so we should do it!'

On a side note, I definitely would disagree with that BSR statement since I have seen games where the wolf pack just went after players casting suspicion on the members of the pack/mob (some of this was Town of Salem).

D1 votes:

1. Ruguo
Doc > Michi

2. Adorable Oracle Hapi:
Red Mones > cozmik

3. Melehan:
Hapi

4. Sapphiron:
Vroendal

5. TGN:
Shapphiron > Unvote? (he wasn't voting Michi, so was he unvoting or actually voting Michi here?) > Laurentus > Unvote > No Lynch

6. Eastern New England / HumanDawn:
no votes

7. Ogun of Valeria / Legacy of Smiles:
no votes

8. Alexander Valentine / ExLight:
no votes

9. Anubhav Ghosh:
no votes

10. Michi:
no votes

11. BraveSirRobin:
no votes

12. Red Mones:
Hapi > Melehan > Unvote > Ruguo

13. Vroendal:
Michi > Unvote > Michi > Unvote

14. Gerrick:
Michi

15. Wischland:
Michi

16. Minish:
Michi > Red Mones > Michi

17. Imaginative Kane:
No Lynch > BraveSirRobin

18. Wintermoot:
Red Mones

19. NyghtOwl:
Wintermoot > Hapi

20. Doc:
Hapi

21. cozmikrae:
Red Mones > Unvote > Hapi

Final votecount:
Ruguo - 1 (Red Mones)
Red Mones - 1 (Wintermoot)
Vroendal - 1 (Sapphiron)
Adorable Oracle Hapi - 4 (NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae)
Michi - 4 (Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Hapi)

D1 general recap and analysis:

Page 1:
- Random Votes, not much to be seen here.

Page 2:
- Doc overreacting over what's likely a joke vote.
- Cozmikrae keeps vote on Red, says it's pressure to see their reaction.
- Michi's controversial statement, and BSR likes the post. Consistent with them both not voting.

Page 3:
- Hapi makes a point calling out Doc. Doc's answer does not address that point properly. (If I remember correctly Hapi kept insisting she was a turret in Portal 1 and I also pushed her lynch back then, so I kinda see how it's different here, but still).
- Vroendal accuses Hapi vs Doc of distancing. (why "distancing" instead of real opposition?)

Page 4:
- Mel memeing. Red wondering if her liking posts is indicative or something and backing off.

Page 5:
- More Mel memeing
- Small discussion on the importance of a D1 lynch.
- Vro makes a good point against Michi's incoherence.

Page 6:
- Silver votes Michi while asking him to provide an explanation, adding momentum to the wagon.
- Nyghts votes Hapi (kind of a policy lynch vote)

Page 7:
- Silver throws shade at Ogum (Smiles). Suggests that it's distancing. Lol. He further pushes that he's demanding an answer from. He seems sure Ogum is scum; trying to push a lynch or a bus? Makes me think of Ogum (Smiles)/Silver in different teams.
- Kane pushes that roleplaying is a scumtell, however doesn't vote his scumlean.
- Mel's readlist.

Page 8:
- cozmikrae pushes Red more, and Red defends cozmikrae.
- Michi provides his defense. On a second thought not as solid as I thought since it's not really hitting the core of the accusation. At the same time kinda overdefensive for someone that seems to have thrown the game?

Page 9:
- Kane makes a small vote analysis.
- Michi attempts to explain his defense further. I feel some sort of spite towards new mafia and considering it hostile towards newer players. I think some of these are fair observations on a personal level. Suggesting who the cop should check this early isn't good though. I find it kinda funny that Sapph ended up doing it anyway, if it wasn't a coincidence it was bit of a risky move if Michi is scum since scum could've killed them so we didn't have any results (maybe they tried to but the doctor also saw this post and stopped it? hmm). Saying they won't vote because they're afraid of killing off a role this early is silly unless they're insanely superstitious; even if it was at random, there was a higher chance of hitting scum than a Power Role, and a much higher chance of hitting vanilla.
- Strong push on Michi from Vro; Vro started the wagon on Michi with their vote observation, so this is coherent. Michi doesn't care, lmao.

Page 10:
- cozmikrae isn't new to Mafia/WW. Now I feel bad for asking it when she had already said so umu. Not sure if I follow her logic there.
- How did wolves even manage to win more when yall use a Masonfier Cop as standard? :aaaAAA:
- I kinda agree with Wischland's argument and vote on Michi, although it seems a bit pushy. Makes me think a Wischland/Michi team is unlikely if one of them flips scum.

Page 11:
- Ok, so at this point of the day we have Hapi as a policy lynch and Michi with a wagon that has some logic provided by Vro. It has gotten momentum from Silver's vote (!!) and Wischland's vote.
- I don't get why Kane would clear Nyghts out of nowhere since I saw little to nothing that stood out from him. Stays on the fence about the current discussion, not providing an interpretation of any sort to it. In the end votes someone that wasn't listed among their suspicions, hasn't posted yet and that isn't in the risk of getting lynched.
- Vro points out they noticed something about BSR (later showing it was linking them with Michi). Silver shows interest in this.
- Minish makes a small readlist. (Red, Ruguo, Michi, Ogun, and Kane) as scummy players.

Page 12:
- Wintermoot votes somewhere outside the main wagons and makes a votecount timeline. Minish joins.
- I actually like Vro's post questioning Min.
- "Hypothetically, if I'm scum here do you think Wintermoot is also my scumbud?" what question even is this Min :weary: I'm only not slapping bright red in this because I don't think I've ever seen you being that agreeable with scumbuddies.
- Mel fearmongered everyone a bit here, Michi only had 1 vote more than Red. "substantial lead" isn't really the term I'd use, specially in a game where 83% of players started as Town, maybe.
- Lol, Minish also said she isn't that agreeable with scumbuds, yeet. Self awareness of Meta though :glare:

Page 13:
- Doc points out it's not really a substantial lead, and seems to push that there might be scum in the leading wagons. Also throws shade on Moot. Makes me think that a Michi/Doc team is unlikely if Michi flips scum, although not impossible.
- BSR liked Red's defense of him. Unfortunately we can't see timestamp on the likes, so not sure if that points out to lurking or if he caught up with the thread at some point. Although Vro's connection between Michi and BSR was a thing already, so he was definitely lurking at some point. Kane also calls out the lurkiness. Makes me think a Vro/BSR or Kane/BSR team is unlikely if BSR flips scum.

Page 14:
- Silver not really taking many sides. Shrugs Red-comz, kinda defends Moot, and dances around Minish a bit in what feels like pocketing. Makes me think a bit about a Silver/Moot scumteam. Throws big shade at Gerrick and BSR, not necessarily AI but the way this is phrased feels artificial and like BSR might be a scumbuddy and he's trying to raise a flag saying "be a bit more active so they stop going after you), while with Gerrick is more like an attempt to pocket Nyghts.
- Red points out that Gerrick's behavior is NAI, which kinda makes me think my previous assumptions might be on the right track.
- Minish gives the Michi wagon momentum, it's likely to be the lynch wagon of the day now.
- cozmikrae places a defensive vote, closes the gap Minish had just opened. I noticed she didn't talk about the Michi situation at any point despite apparently being keeping track of the votes. Makes me think a Michi/cozmikrae scumteam might be possible if any of them flip scum.
- Hyperdefensive post of Kane coming outta literally nowhere. Stays in place.

Page 15:
- Hapi kinda throws here that she'd rather die than vote Mitch since she's townreading him. This could've opened some space for scum to switch the lynch into her.
- Gerrick makes a readslist. I don't agree with some stuff like Kane helping finding scum when all he did was vote a random person and self-defend out of the blue.
- cozmikrae: "I also believe having a vote, even if potentially wrong, is better than having no vote". Lol, this didn't age well after D3.
- Red suggests Silver as an option. Which is, uh, interesting. I'll have to check later if they pushed Silver D2.

Page 16:
- Vro unvotes Michi. I hate this. He provided a good reasoning that started the wagon and kept saying on how much a possible Michi lynch would provide information, but then willingly backs off (Michi hadn't even posted in the thread for a while now) and says he'll "give Michi a chance". He then votes again off in the following page. This makes me think Vro and Michi aren't likely to be on the same team, with Vro coming off as scummy in this.
- Hapi doubles down on asking to get lynched instead of Michi.

Page 17:
- Vro removes his vote. I don't remember anyone "uncomfortable" with the Michi vote. I don't see why they didn't vote Hapi (if they wanted to do her will they'd've voted, and if they thought she was Town he would've kept it). This comes off as a scummy way to not appear on the final vote counts and bank on people's laziness to not remember what happened at EoD.

All of the action against Michi in D1 was meta-based. I had no comment as I'd never played him before. I was also busy picking my own fights. Also tbf, a "no lynch" is a vote.

D1 votes:

1. Ruguo
Doc > Michi

2. Adorable Oracle Hapi:
Red Mones > cozmik

3. Melehan:
Hapi

4. Sapphiron:
Vroendal

5. TGN:
Shapphiron > Unvote? (he wasn't voting Michi, so was he unvoting or actually voting Michi here?) > Laurentus > Unvote > No Lynch

6. Eastern New England / HumanDawn:
no votes

7. Ogun of Valeria / Legacy of Smiles:
no votes

8. Alexander Valentine / ExLight:
no votes

9. Anubhav Ghosh:
no votes

10. Michi:
no votes

11. BraveSirRobin:
no votes

12. Red Mones:
Hapi > Melehan > Unvote > Ruguo

13. Vroendal:
Michi > Unvote > Michi > Unvote

14. Gerrick:
Michi

15. Wischland:
Michi

16. Minish:
Michi > Red Mones > Michi

17. Imaginative Kane:
No Lynch > BraveSirRobin

18. Wintermoot:
Red Mones

19. NyghtOwl:
Wintermoot > Hapi

20. Doc:
Hapi

21. cozmikrae:
Red Mones > Unvote > Hapi

Final votecount:
Ruguo - 1 (Red Mones)
Red Mones - 1 (Wintermoot)
Vroendal - 1 (Sapphiron)
Adorable Oracle Hapi - 4 (NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae)
Michi - 4 (Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Hapi)

D1 general recap and analysis:

Page 1:
- Random Votes, not much to be seen here.

Page 2:
- Doc overreacting over what's likely a joke vote.
- Cozmikrae keeps vote on Red, says it's pressure to see their reaction.
- Michi's controversial statement, and BSR likes the post. Consistent with them both not voting.

Page 3:
- Hapi makes a point calling out Doc. Doc's answer does not address that point properly. (If I remember correctly Hapi kept insisting she was a turret in Portal 1 and I also pushed her lynch back then, so I kinda see how it's different here, but still).
- Vroendal accuses Hapi vs Doc of distancing. (why "distancing" instead of real opposition?)

Page 4:
- Mel memeing. Red wondering if her liking posts is indicative or something and backing off.

Page 5:
- More Mel memeing
- Small discussion on the importance of a D1 lynch.
- Vro makes a good point against Michi's incoherence.

Page 6:
- Silver votes Michi while asking him to provide an explanation, adding momentum to the wagon.
- Nyghts votes Hapi (kind of a policy lynch vote)

Page 7:
- Silver throws shade at Ogum (Smiles). Suggests that it's distancing. Lol. He further pushes that he's demanding an answer from. He seems sure Ogum is scum; trying to push a lynch or a bus? Makes me think of Ogum (Smiles)/Silver in different teams.
- Kane pushes that roleplaying is a scumtell, however doesn't vote his scumlean.
- Mel's readlist.

Page 8:
- cozmikrae pushes Red more, and Red defends cozmikrae.
- Michi provides his defense. On a second thought not as solid as I thought since it's not really hitting the core of the accusation. At the same time kinda overdefensive for someone that seems to have thrown the game?

Page 9:
- Kane makes a small vote analysis.
- Michi attempts to explain his defense further. I feel some sort of spite towards new mafia and considering it hostile towards newer players. I think some of these are fair observations on a personal level. Suggesting who the cop should check this early isn't good though. I find it kinda funny that Sapph ended up doing it anyway, if it wasn't a coincidence it was bit of a risky move if Michi is scum since scum could've killed them so we didn't have any results (maybe they tried to but the doctor also saw this post and stopped it? hmm). Saying they won't vote because they're afraid of killing off a role this early is silly unless they're insanely superstitious; even if it was at random, there was a higher chance of hitting scum than a Power Role, and a much higher chance of hitting vanilla.
- Strong push on Michi from Vro; Vro started the wagon on Michi with their vote observation, so this is coherent. Michi doesn't care, lmao.

Page 10:
- cozmikrae isn't new to Mafia/WW. Now I feel bad for asking it when she had already said so umu. Not sure if I follow her logic there.
- How did wolves even manage to win more when yall use a Masonfier Cop as standard? :aaaAAA:
- I kinda agree with Wischland's argument and vote on Michi, although it seems a bit pushy. Makes me think a Wischland/Michi team is unlikely if one of them flips scum.

Page 11:
- Ok, so at this point of the day we have Hapi as a policy lynch and Michi with a wagon that has some logic provided by Vro. It has gotten momentum from Silver's vote (!!) and Wischland's vote.
- I don't get why Kane would clear Nyghts out of nowhere since I saw little to nothing that stood out from him. Stays on the fence about the current discussion, not providing an interpretation of any sort to it. In the end votes someone that wasn't listed among their suspicions, hasn't posted yet and that isn't in the risk of getting lynched.
- Vro points out they noticed something about BSR (later showing it was linking them with Michi). Silver shows interest in this.
- Minish makes a small readlist. (Red, Ruguo, Michi, Ogun, and Kane) as scummy players.

Page 12:
- Wintermoot votes somewhere outside the main wagons and makes a votecount timeline. Minish joins.
- I actually like Vro's post questioning Min.
- "Hypothetically, if I'm scum here do you think Wintermoot is also my scumbud?" what question even is this Min :weary: I'm only not slapping bright red in this because I don't think I've ever seen you being that agreeable with scumbuddies.
- Mel fearmongered everyone a bit here, Michi only had 1 vote more than Red. "substantial lead" isn't really the term I'd use, specially in a game where 83% of players started as Town, maybe.
- Lol, Minish also said she isn't that agreeable with scumbuds, yeet. Self awareness of Meta though :glare:

Page 13:
- Doc points out it's not really a substantial lead, and seems to push that there might be scum in the leading wagons. Also throws shade on Moot. Makes me think that a Michi/Doc team is unlikely if Michi flips scum, although not impossible.
- BSR liked Red's defense of him. Unfortunately we can't see timestamp on the likes, so not sure if that points out to lurking or if he caught up with the thread at some point. Although Vro's connection between Michi and BSR was a thing already, so he was definitely lurking at some point. Kane also calls out the lurkiness. Makes me think a Vro/BSR or Kane/BSR team is unlikely if BSR flips scum.

Page 14:
- Silver not really taking many sides. Shrugs Red-comz, kinda defends Moot, and dances around Minish a bit in what feels like pocketing. Makes me think a bit about a Silver/Moot scumteam. Throws big shade at Gerrick and BSR, not necessarily AI but the way this is phrased feels artificial and like BSR might be a scumbuddy and he's trying to raise a flag saying "be a bit more active so they stop going after you), while with Gerrick is more like an attempt to pocket Nyghts.
- Red points out that Gerrick's behavior is NAI, which kinda makes me think my previous assumptions might be on the right track.
- Minish gives the Michi wagon momentum, it's likely to be the lynch wagon of the day now.
- cozmikrae places a defensive vote, closes the gap Minish had just opened. I noticed she didn't talk about the Michi situation at any point despite apparently being keeping track of the votes. Makes me think a Michi/cozmikrae scumteam might be possible if any of them flip scum.
- Hyperdefensive post of Kane coming outta literally nowhere. Stays in place.

Page 15:
- Hapi kinda throws here that she'd rather die than vote Mitch since she's townreading him. This could've opened some space for scum to switch the lynch into her.
- Gerrick makes a readslist. I don't agree with some stuff like Kane helping finding scum when all he did was vote a random person and self-defend out of the blue.
- cozmikrae: "I also believe having a vote, even if potentially wrong, is better than having no vote". Lol, this didn't age well after D3.
- Red suggests Silver as an option. Which is, uh, interesting. I'll have to check later if they pushed Silver D2.

Page 16:
- Vro unvotes Michi. I hate this. He provided a good reasoning that started the wagon and kept saying on how much a possible Michi lynch would provide information, but then willingly backs off (Michi hadn't even posted in the thread for a while now) and says he'll "give Michi a chance". He then votes again off in the following page. This makes me think Vro and Michi aren't likely to be on the same team, with Vro coming off as scummy in this.
- Hapi doubles down on asking to get lynched instead of Michi.

Page 17:
- Vro removes his vote. I don't remember anyone "uncomfortable" with the Michi vote. I don't see why they didn't vote Hapi (if they wanted to do her will they'd've voted, and if they thought she was Town he would've kept it). This comes off as a scummy way to not appear on the final vote counts and bank on people's laziness to not remember what happened at EoD.

All of the action against Michi in D1 was meta-based. I had no comment as I'd never played him before. I was also busy picking my own fights. Also tbf, a "no lynch" is a vote.

That's fair, but I feel like the meta argument was quite simple. "He's defending a No Lynch D1 and he usually doesn't behave this way and here are games that show that:"
It wasn't really too deep of a meta analysis, twas almost a direct contradiction maybe.

D1 votes:

1. Ruguo
Doc > Michi

2. Adorable Oracle Hapi:
Red Mones > cozmik

3. Melehan:
Hapi

4. Sapphiron:
Vroendal

5. TGN:
Shapphiron > Unvote? (he wasn't voting Michi, so was he unvoting or actually voting Michi here?) > Laurentus > Unvote > No Lynch

6. Eastern New England / HumanDawn:
no votes

7. Ogun of Valeria / Legacy of Smiles:
no votes

8. Alexander Valentine / ExLight:
no votes

9. Anubhav Ghosh:
no votes

10. Michi:
no votes

11. BraveSirRobin:
no votes

12. Red Mones:
Hapi > Melehan > Unvote > Ruguo

13. Vroendal:
Michi > Unvote > Michi > Unvote

14. Gerrick:
Michi

15. Wischland:
Michi

16. Minish:
Michi > Red Mones > Michi

17. Imaginative Kane:
No Lynch > BraveSirRobin

18. Wintermoot:
Red Mones

19. NyghtOwl:
Wintermoot > Hapi

20. Doc:
Hapi

21. cozmikrae:
Red Mones > Unvote > Hapi

Final votecount:
Ruguo - 1 (Red Mones)
Red Mones - 1 (Wintermoot)
Vroendal - 1 (Sapphiron)
Adorable Oracle Hapi - 4 (NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae)
Michi - 4 (Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Hapi)

D1 general recap and analysis:

Page 1:
- Random Votes, not much to be seen here.

Page 2:
- Doc overreacting over what's likely a joke vote.
- Cozmikrae keeps vote on Red, says it's pressure to see their reaction.
- Michi's controversial statement, and BSR likes the post. Consistent with them both not voting.

Page 3:
- Hapi makes a point calling out Doc. Doc's answer does not address that point properly. (If I remember correctly Hapi kept insisting she was a turret in Portal 1 and I also pushed her lynch back then, so I kinda see how it's different here, but still).
- Vroendal accuses Hapi vs Doc of distancing. (why "distancing" instead of real opposition?)

Page 4:
- Mel memeing. Red wondering if her liking posts is indicative or something and backing off.

Page 5:
- More Mel memeing
- Small discussion on the importance of a D1 lynch.
- Vro makes a good point against Michi's incoherence.

Page 6:
- Silver votes Michi while asking him to provide an explanation, adding momentum to the wagon.
- Nyghts votes Hapi (kind of a policy lynch vote)

Page 7:
- Silver throws shade at Ogum (Smiles). Suggests that it's distancing. Lol. He further pushes that he's demanding an answer from. He seems sure Ogum is scum; trying to push a lynch or a bus? Makes me think of Ogum (Smiles)/Silver in different teams.
- Kane pushes that roleplaying is a scumtell, however doesn't vote his scumlean.
- Mel's readlist.

Page 8:
- cozmikrae pushes Red more, and Red defends cozmikrae.
- Michi provides his defense. On a second thought not as solid as I thought since it's not really hitting the core of the accusation. At the same time kinda overdefensive for someone that seems to have thrown the game?

Page 9:
- Kane makes a small vote analysis.
- Michi attempts to explain his defense further. I feel some sort of spite towards new mafia and considering it hostile towards newer players. I think some of these are fair observations on a personal level. Suggesting who the cop should check this early isn't good though. I find it kinda funny that Sapph ended up doing it anyway, if it wasn't a coincidence it was bit of a risky move if Michi is scum since scum could've killed them so we didn't have any results (maybe they tried to but the doctor also saw this post and stopped it? hmm). Saying they won't vote because they're afraid of killing off a role this early is silly unless they're insanely superstitious; even if it was at random, there was a higher chance of hitting scum than a Power Role, and a much higher chance of hitting vanilla.
- Strong push on Michi from Vro; Vro started the wagon on Michi with their vote observation, so this is coherent. Michi doesn't care, lmao.

Page 10:
- cozmikrae isn't new to Mafia/WW. Now I feel bad for asking it when she had already said so umu. Not sure if I follow her logic there.
- How did wolves even manage to win more when yall use a Masonfier Cop as standard? :aaaAAA:
- I kinda agree with Wischland's argument and vote on Michi, although it seems a bit pushy. Makes me think a Wischland/Michi team is unlikely if one of them flips scum.

Page 11:
- Ok, so at this point of the day we have Hapi as a policy lynch and Michi with a wagon that has some logic provided by Vro. It has gotten momentum from Silver's vote (!!) and Wischland's vote.
- I don't get why Kane would clear Nyghts out of nowhere since I saw little to nothing that stood out from him. Stays on the fence about the current discussion, not providing an interpretation of any sort to it. In the end votes someone that wasn't listed among their suspicions, hasn't posted yet and that isn't in the risk of getting lynched.
- Vro points out they noticed something about BSR (later showing it was linking them with Michi). Silver shows interest in this.
- Minish makes a small readlist. (Red, Ruguo, Michi, Ogun, and Kane) as scummy players.

Page 12:
- Wintermoot votes somewhere outside the main wagons and makes a votecount timeline. Minish joins.
- I actually like Vro's post questioning Min.
- "Hypothetically, if I'm scum here do you think Wintermoot is also my scumbud?" what question even is this Min :weary: I'm only not slapping bright red in this because I don't think I've ever seen you being that agreeable with scumbuddies.
- Mel fearmongered everyone a bit here, Michi only had 1 vote more than Red. "substantial lead" isn't really the term I'd use, specially in a game where 83% of players started as Town, maybe.
- Lol, Minish also said she isn't that agreeable with scumbuds, yeet. Self awareness of Meta though :glare:

Page 13:
- Doc points out it's not really a substantial lead, and seems to push that there might be scum in the leading wagons. Also throws shade on Moot. Makes me think that a Michi/Doc team is unlikely if Michi flips scum, although not impossible.
- BSR liked Red's defense of him. Unfortunately we can't see timestamp on the likes, so not sure if that points out to lurking or if he caught up with the thread at some point. Although Vro's connection between Michi and BSR was a thing already, so he was definitely lurking at some point. Kane also calls out the lurkiness. Makes me think a Vro/BSR or Kane/BSR team is unlikely if BSR flips scum.

Page 14:
- Silver not really taking many sides. Shrugs Red-comz, kinda defends Moot, and dances around Minish a bit in what feels like pocketing. Makes me think a bit about a Silver/Moot scumteam. Throws big shade at Gerrick and BSR, not necessarily AI but the way this is phrased feels artificial and like BSR might be a scumbuddy and he's trying to raise a flag saying "be a bit more active so they stop going after you), while with Gerrick is more like an attempt to pocket Nyghts.
- Red points out that Gerrick's behavior is NAI, which kinda makes me think my previous assumptions might be on the right track.
- Minish gives the Michi wagon momentum, it's likely to be the lynch wagon of the day now.
- cozmikrae places a defensive vote, closes the gap Minish had just opened. I noticed she didn't talk about the Michi situation at any point despite apparently being keeping track of the votes. Makes me think a Michi/cozmikrae scumteam might be possible if any of them flip scum.
- Hyperdefensive post of Kane coming outta literally nowhere. Stays in place.

Page 15:
- Hapi kinda throws here that she'd rather die than vote Mitch since she's townreading him. This could've opened some space for scum to switch the lynch into her.
- Gerrick makes a readslist. I don't agree with some stuff like Kane helping finding scum when all he did was vote a random person and self-defend out of the blue.
- cozmikrae: "I also believe having a vote, even if potentially wrong, is better than having no vote". Lol, this didn't age well after D3.
- Red suggests Silver as an option. Which is, uh, interesting. I'll have to check later if they pushed Silver D2.

Page 16:
- Vro unvotes Michi. I hate this. He provided a good reasoning that started the wagon and kept saying on how much a possible Michi lynch would provide information, but then willingly backs off (Michi hadn't even posted in the thread for a while now) and says he'll "give Michi a chance". He then votes again off in the following page. This makes me think Vro and Michi aren't likely to be on the same team, with Vro coming off as scummy in this.
- Hapi doubles down on asking to get lynched instead of Michi.

Page 17:
- Vro removes his vote. I don't remember anyone "uncomfortable" with the Michi vote. I don't see why they didn't vote Hapi (if they wanted to do her will they'd've voted, and if they thought she was Town he would've kept it). This comes off as a scummy way to not appear on the final vote counts and bank on people's laziness to not remember what happened at EoD.

All of the action against Michi in D1 was meta-based. I had no comment as I'd never played him before. I was also busy picking my own fights. Also tbf, a "no lynch" is a vote.

That's fair, but I feel like the meta argument was quite simple. "He's defending a No Lynch D1 and he usually doesn't behave this way and here are games that show that:"
It wasn't really too deep of a meta analysis, twas almost a direct contradiction maybe.

Sure, but as I had no experience with that personally, I wasn't going to vote for him. Also beyond that day, I did defend his reaction as pure frustration and gave my 2c.

Is it likely that Kane's refusal to defend himself after TGN flipped town is indicative of being the unkillable Titan, and Kane's trying to buy time with us trying to lynch him uselessly? @Legacy of Smiles, thoughts?

Is it likely that Kane's refusal to defend himself after TGN flipped town is indicative of being the unkillable Titan, and Kane's trying to buy time with us trying to lynch him uselessly? @Legacy of Smiles, thoughts?

It doesn’t make sense for scum to want it to get exposed because Unkillable Titan is actually a townsided role. Scum will still get exposed and everyone they vote or read will give information instantly.

It made sense for someone like TGN to not realize that and ignore scumbuds that might point that out, but any other player with more experience or maturity would treat it as any other scum role.

Is it likely that Kane's refusal to defend himself after TGN flipped town is indicative of being the unkillable Titan, and Kane's trying to buy time with us trying to lynch him uselessly? @Legacy of Smiles, thoughts?

Honestly, I had completely forgotten about the unlynchable titan. We are on an odd number of players right now so an unlynchable titan lynch (functionally a no lynch) would be as bad as mislynching a Townsperson in terms of numbers but at the cost of outing the titan. I doubt it's a purposeful bait unless one of Kane's scumbuddies is BSR/cozmik/Winter/likely wagon today and trying to draw attention from them but looking for apathy towards being lynched from a player might be an unlynchable titan tell. Also worth noting that normal wolves may attempt to pretend to be unlynchable in order to avoid the lynch and that starts a whole new trend of WIFOM.

I'd argue that the info we get from confirming a (lynchproof) player as wolf would be worth the cancelled lynch at this moment in time since we have a numbers advantage right now and two living defenders who are doing a good job blocking kills so far. If we get another confirmed wolf then I think solving the game will be a lot easier.

Kane, if you're town then please continue to defend yourself. It's much more helpful if you do, even if you get lynched we probably have a more productive day from it.

How much experience does Kane have?

Ruguo - 1 (Red Mones)
Red Mones    - 1 (Wintermoot)
Vroendal - 1 (Sapphiron)
Adorable Oracle Hapi - 4 (NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae)
Michi - 4 (Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Hapi)

Ruguo - 9 (Red Mones, Vroendal, Gerrick, Anubhav Ghosh, Sapphiron, Minish, Michi, Melehan, Cozmikrae)
Vroendal - 5 (Ruguo, BraveSirRobin, Wintermoot, NyghtOwl, Doc)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Doc - 1 (TGN)
Eastern New England - 1 (Self)

Gerrick - 1 (Red Mones)
Sapphiron - 6 (Minish, Imaginative Kane, TGN, Wintermoot, Legacy of Smiles, Human Dawn)
BraveSirRobin - 2 (Gerrick, NyghtOwl)
TGN - 6 (Vroendal, Sapphiron, Wischland, BraveSirRobin, Doc, ExLight)

TGN - 8 (BraveSirRobin, Doc, ExLight, Gerrick, Imaginative Kane, Minish, Red Mones, Wintermoot)
Imaginative Kane - 6 (Anubhav Ghosh, Cozmikrae, Legacy of Smiles, TGN, Vroendal, Wischland)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Michi)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Human Dawn)


Interestingly, Vro and Wisch are the only two who voted for TGN against Sapph, but not against Kane. Dunno if that means anything.

I don't think Doc and Vro are aligned. Doc has a pretty bad voting history actually. But I don't know if he's one to bus or not, because the Silver lynch was prime bussing opportunity.

Looking at the votes on Silver (Red Mones, Vroendal, Gerrick, Anubhav Ghosh, Sapphiron, Minish, Michi, Melehan, Cozmikrae), it looks like a pretty decent list actually.
I know I'm town, I really believe Red to be town, Anubhav seems town, Sapph is flipped town, Michi seems town, Melehan is flipped town, and I'm kinda town leaning Cozmik at the moment. So that just leaves Vro and Gerrick as the unknowns though I'm also kinda town leaning Vro even though I'm a bit paranoid about him.

Interestingly, I was just searching the print page to see if I could find where Gerrick's vote actually fell on Silver and I found a reads list that I'll talk about in a separate post. But it kind of makes me suspicious of him.

Oh fuck me, I just remembered looking back how bad Gerrick's vote on Silver was. Dunno how I forgot this. I had broken the tie between Silver/Vro and Gerrick voted after me. But he only voted because he said he would to prove he and Silver weren't connected and Red told him to prove it. I felt not great about that at the time and it completely slipped my mind.

Nevermind this post has turned into looking at Gerrick, so gonna post the reads list here.

Spoiler

Lean Town
Wintermoot: Reads very similar to how he played last game when he was town.
Nyght: Seems to genuinely try to get the hang of this as a new player out in the open rather than talking to fellow wolves in private chat were he scum, so I'm town-reading him.
Kane: Seems to be genuinely helpful and trying to find scum.
Wischland: Appears to be acting the same as last game (which involved jumping on bandwagons) when she was town. Would like to hear more from her.
Dawcreek: Has yet to post. This lines up with last game (when he was town) where he ended up backing out of the game because it was overwhelming. I expect the same to happen again, unfortunately.
Minish: Making some really good points on people and sussing them out/asking people for meta.
Vroendal: Going a little hard on Michi considering the meta evidence (metevidence?) isn't as strong as he believes it is, but he is going hard on people like last game when he was town. I don't see the links between players he's talking about, though.

Neutral
Alexander Valentine: Has not posted, but has been online. Again, a new person, so understandable if he's overwhelmed.
Doc: Has made some reasonable points on suspicions. Looking a little more town than last game when he was scum.
cozmik: People are unfortunately fixated on her joke vote on Red (I know how that goes all too well). Don't like the whole "playing my strategy close to the chest" bit, which in general is not good for town, but I'm willing to give her the benefit of the doubt right now since she's new here, and hounding on the new players is no fun.
Melehan: At first went hard on the RP chaos aspect (I assume she's taking a page from Hapi's playstyle after she read last game), which makes me lean scum, but then later she seemed to be really digging and coming to some of the same conclusions I am on people.
Hapi: I find her accusations against cozmik to be weak, but other than that there's not much to go on besides the memes. Hard to read Hapi.
Ruguo: Has spoken quite a bit but has been pretty shallow in their suspects, but I find their recent analysis prompted by Vro to be reasonable.
Red Mones: I don't buy the accusation that he's knowingly protecting cozmik because he's scum -- I'd do the same thing in his place. He has been playing very defensively, though, and I don't like how he doesn't have a vote in right now.
TGN: I don't think anyone can comprehend his actions. He seems to be on a level higher than everyone else, and his chaotic tendencies rival Hapi's.
Ogun: Has only made one post showing worry about the amount of posts to catch up on. Hope he ends up reading through it all and making a vote like he did last game as town. If not, he'll move to the scum section for me.
ENE: Posted a copypasta about why everyone should vote D1 then hasn't voted or even posted beyond that. He did turn out to be town last game while being quiet, though, so that might just be his style.

Lean Scum
Michi: Honestly, I'm surprised my vote turned into a wagon, but I'm sure as hell not gonna change my vote in case he turns out to be scum (someone's gotta die anyway). But his reactions to the wagon are kinda rubbing me the wrong way, luckily. Although his non-vote appears to be NAI in his case, he seems to really want everyone to be more quiet and less aggressive, which is usually better for the wolves.
BSR: Made a post asking about roles, and that's it. Tried to look helpful before falling back into the shadows? He's been online...
Sapphiron: Voted based on "RNG", and then stated we shouldn't take D1 discussion as very important, but that's it. Everything's important this early on, so don't know why he'd downplay it already (understandable later on, though)

Okay so, I colored the flips from his list and this is from d1. But, the contents of the list are interesting and seem vaguely familiar to how I'll do reads lists as scum sometimes in that he throws a few people who he knows are town in the town reads, has some nulls to be able to throw some sus on later, and then lists 3 scum leans. I find the list interesting for d1, because he has 3 scum leans and quite a few town leans already. But also the fact that of his town reads (Winter, Nyght, Kane, Wisch, Dawcreek/Anubhav, Me, and Vro), there are some very iffy reads in there and a few people I'm currently unsure about. I know I'm town and I believe Nyght and Anubhav to be town. But the ones that are interesting are Winter, Kane, and Wisch who he gives shallow reasons for town reading, who hadn't posted as much as a lot of people in his nulls, and who are still in PoE at the moment.

Gerrick had a bunch of people in his neutrals that had posted quite a bit, and he even reads some of them a certain way (ie, saying Doc seems townier than last game) yet that's not enough to read them but he had enough to read Winter, Kane, and Wisch?

As for his scum leans, we already know Sapph was town, Michi seems to look town, and BSR is an unknown. Though Gerrick did stay off the two town wagons of Sapph/TGN d3 and voted BSR instead, so I'm kinda feeling maybe BSR is town that scum was trying to make an easy mislynch push on now...


I think I'd feel pretty good about voting Gerrick today.

How much experience does Kane have?

A bit I believe. He was in that Portal game that got a restart that we played in. And I know he read part of LotR because he liked a few of my posts.

I see.
I'm actually a bit bothered by Gerrick as today's lynch because his vote actually gave Silver's wagon some momentum, he wasn't highly active so he could've just stayed quiet or not have placed a vote at all and it would've been fine. His readlist seems kinda coherent with his vote and I don't see a reason for him to bus Silver either.

Vote: Vroendal

I'm actually more comfortable sitting on Vro as it is at the moment.
I'm at the end of the D2 recap and a ton of people seem to be pushing and calling him out, and that suspicion seems to have disappeared after the Silver lynch (I know I'm partially to blame because I pushed another direction, but now I'm kinda regretting it).

There's some thinking here that scum could've just lynched TGN but that's not really true. If Silver and Vroendal voted each other, which is the expected (and technically optimal since distancing) once otherwise it would've brought the spotlight on both, that leaves only 2 other scum (if none were inactive) that could manipulate the votes, and they'd have to compensate their own scumbuds wagon being larger due to their distancing.
I don't think scum puts effort to mislynch someone in this situation. I can also see Silver asking for them to not lynch TGN to give him a chance to play if he was aware he's only 13, so yea.

@Minish can you comment on Vro's readlist from page 23? I think it looks even worse than Gerrick's.
To quote my WIP recap:
"- Vro makes a readlist, none of the people that flipped Town are above null. While for Silver says he'd "put him in the Town reads" but decides not to, lol. He also keeps throwing shade at Michi despite being the one that avoided his lynch, which is incoherent with what he said yesterday about Michi being a Null read at the time."