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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

I'm really not sold on anyone right now. There are people I'm sussing for small things but no real big suspects.

So since some people seem to want to vote Kane I'll go with the informative counter wagon.

Vote: TGN

who would my death clear?
page 69, nice

So I'm kicking myself that Sapph was still lynched even after I specifically stated that Sapph pretty much ONLY soft claims power roles when he's miffed at people who still suspect he's a "wolf" or something when he clearly isn't. 

Seeing as I know this very well, and seeing how Sapph acted rather identically in the LoTR game, I'm going to be immediately suspicious of those who are voting for him even though they have Wintreath Werewolf experience.  Consequently, my shit list presently is as follows:  Kane, Minish, Moot, and TGN. 

Crossing this with my calls after the first day, which was for reference:
Vro, NyghtOwl, Melehan, Cozmikrae, Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, and Minish, who I initially discounted because I liked the analysis, but now I'm definitely more suspect of because being in two townie kill chains is much more suspect, though not being around for EOD is definitely a valid excuse too, so I can't say still.  Coz is also suspicious as hell still, because of the literally 3 MINUTES BEFORE THE DEADLINE unvote. 

Vote with me if you want to cut off their necks~~~ ♫

Vro though, while still oddly focused on killing me, did get someone to unvote Sapph, which would generally be enough to gain my trust, but I'm still unsure because he could still be a wolf coordinating with Coz, especially because he told the guy to UNVOTE rather than just vote TGN,  and just accepting a 50-50 of killing the Seer to appear less suspect.  TGN voting Sapph out of self preservation was fine at the beginning, but then keeping it after Sapph soft-not-so-soft claimed Seer is also SUPER suspect. 

I'm not sure who we should kill right now, but I have a feeling that some people who are actually villagers might be targeting me, so I would not be opposed to a self lynch of myself to prove to them that they are in fact wrong and get them to bark up a correct tree.  Then again, the analysis in this game generally has been quite sketch, apart from that of Minish, Smiles and HumanDawn, who I believe is the replacement for ENE, and the immediate posting after being brought in really makes me think town, because if I was brought in as a wolf, I'd definitely try to PM with my other wolves first. 

So if we have to kill me for people to do better analysis, I'm all for it, but I'd prefer if not, because analysis this game has been shit and I can't really count on the townies bringing it home rn because I'm not fully confident Minish is town.

I really hope you aren't lynched because there isn't a case on you that I know of.

I agree about Minish - I want to Town read the slot but something in the back of my head tells me not to. I don't recall a case from her on you and yet she argues you should have been the counterwagon and that it was strange that it wasn't when 3 out of 18 living players in Day 3 are Mafia (and technically only 2 could change the wagon outside of you even if you are scum). Maybe it would hold more merit in a smaller game, but going by the numbers, it's unlikely Mafia had a large say in saving you from being lynched Day 3. If there was a strong case, I would argue it would have merit... but there wasn't.

I spent d3 stating the case against BSR. At the time he had posted like 5 times so there wasn't much of a case that could be had in terms of actions but there were people that kept suspecting him and not voting for him or someone like Kane who voted him 2 days in a row and then didn't vote him yesterday. The reason BSR should have been the counter yesterday is the fact that he was so talked about without anyone doing anything until that day and the thought that I had that he and Sapph were unaligned. I don't know where you got that I think mafia shifted the votes because that's not what I said at all. I think town spent time talking about BSR and then suddenly shifted again to TGN.

Also just saw your other post before submitting this. Yes people can have other suspicions they follow but the general discussion of BSR seemed odd. You're struggling to see how mafia can easily distance by throwing light suspicion on a scumbud and never doing anything about it?

And I laid it out yesterday how Silver was potentially distancing. It's like you're trying to shade me for stuff I've clearly explained before. But it came from Silver pushing BSR a lot but never once voting him. And Silver also continuously stating suspicion of Sapph but doing so in a way he could easily back out of later (saying he felt odd but that he needed to ISO before he could say for sure and never ISO'd him).


Also I'm fairly certain Silver was pushing to vote BSR before Silver himself was a wagon, so it wasn't that he was just voting elsewhere to save himself. Even once the wagons were him and TGN he said he would rather vote BSR if others would too but didn't really push it that hard.

I got it because you said you were hung up on BSR, and when you mentioned it as being a reason, I assumed that you think Mafia might have had something to do with it. If you're saying you think the Town shifted to TGN despite having reservations about BSR, then why would you even mention that it's one of the things that makes you hung up about BSR? All that would say is that the Town just suspected TGN more, and BSR voted TGN with the effort to save Sapph.

No, I'm not struggling to see how Mafia can shade BSR to distance, I'm struggling to see that actually happening in any way in this game with how low the odds of that seem, and because there isn't an actual link.

I'll look at BSR and Silver later, but I don't remember much linking them in the first place. Could also be that Silver was trying to see the momentum for a potential lynch on BSR. I've done it as Mafia before.

What do you think of Cozmikrae?

Welp, given what Laurentus just said...

Unvote

Cool.

Who would you vote instead?

And to end this thread, onto BSR:

I've been reading though, and something about the way he's been posting has been bothering me...though I can't exactly place what it is, but it's been giving me some weird vibes.  Part of it is probably because of him saying this:

So I'm kicking myself that Sapph was still lynched even after I specifically stated that Sapph pretty much ONLY soft claims power roles when he's miffed at people who still suspect he's a "wolf" or something when he clearly isn't. 

And from what I dug up, I never saw him actually say that.

I'm going to Vote: TGN
Not only to semi protect Sapph, who appears to be doing some pretty good hinting here, but also because Vro wants to defend TGN, which makes me suspicious, because Ruguo was scum and because Hapi was innocent.  Do we not remember that Ruguo was trying to tie Hapi and myself and Sapph together, and then Hapi was flipped and Ruguo flipped scum?  That should be obvious enough.  Maybe I'm relying too much on Valeria being similar here, but I definitely don't think that we should vote off Sapph right now, especially if the power role is in play as a possibility

Also as far as defending myself from a mention which is now like ages ago, Vro and Ruguo were anti me the whole game basically, which makes me really think that they're scum and working together, which I think is an appropriate conclusion from my situation.  *shrug*

LOL its been interesting to me as well. Perhaps they think I'm a better Laurentus Lite than I am in reality hahaha. I mean, either way, it')) backfire on them eventually so I dont know what they're doing? There are way too many townies for that not to occur...

Ideally we'd be voting Vro and not saving Sapph by lynching TGN, but I definitely don't like the last minute moves from people who are very vocal. That generally screams wolves dominating the narrative to me, which tends to make me more readily scum lean people who are dominating the conversation and making sweeping accusations against widely varying sets of players. Hilariously, my suspect list remains basically the same set of people it was after Hapi was killed, and is only more confidently Vro because he's really attacking me for... Not being active enough?

Activity, apart from the rare exception, is generally the wolves, and seeing that Ruguo flipped red, he's probably smart enough to have created a coordinated attack at the beginning with each wolf being a separate big personality, which is generally a good strategy. That's generally what I'd do if I were a wolf, and then painting anyone who objects to my questioning as suspicious or irrelevant as paranoid and wolfish. Which works quite well quite often

Sure, he mentions Sapph a few times about him doing some hints, but nowhere does he say anything about Sapph only does claims when he's miffed at people crying wolf on him.  And he even claimed that his reason for voting TGN was to "Semi" save Sapph, but also because Vro wanted to defend TGN.

That coupled his "Ideally, we'd be voting Vro and not saving Sapph by lynching TGN" just really doesn't sit well with me, especially after he just got done saying that Sapph is a power role, so saving Sapph would pretty much be on the top of the list if he thought Sapph was genuinely softing a power role because of his reasoning he claimed to have stated in the first quote.

You have a point there about what BSR said today not matching what he said yesterday. I don't see how BSR claiming that his reason for voting TGN was to save Sapph but also because Vro defended TGN is incriminating.

I... don't get what you mean by him saying he would ideally vote Vro. He voted TGN who was a bigger suspect than Vroendel for quite a few players and I think already had a few votes then.

Can we get a vote count? :M

I think one for BSR
2 for me

3 votes on TGN, one on BSR, one on Cozmik.

TGN - Doc, ExLight, Minish
Cozmik - HumanDawn
BSR - Michi

who would my death clear?
page 69, nice

Your death doesn't hard clear anyone, the point in it is mainly to help reveal who the wolves might be by breaking the players into smaller groups based on who supported your lynch and who was against it since you were a major during D2 and D3. What we're wanting to do is sling out 3 wolves, not clear 14 remaining players.

k

who would my death clear?
page 69, nice

wow, sneaking a 'page 69, nice' into this message, huh
Anyway it 'clears' (or really rather 'improves the possibility of being townies for'; there's basically no 100% surefire clears in this game at this point now that the Seer is dead) a different slate of people depending which way you flip. Going into specifics just means that the people on the other side get very invested in making sure you once again don't flip, start distancing/wagoning early, or both.
Frankly, if at this point a lynch somehow doesn't go off on you for the third night running - especially if it winds up another mislynch, I'm just gonna take it as pretty much ironclad proof (pun for the possibility that you're the Armored Titan originally not intended until I realized that it totally worked as one) that one of your scumbuds is powerwolfing hard to keep you alive for whatever reason, and thus I'll accordingly ignore you until we've finally rooted out your other two scumbuds.
Continually having you and (someone else who winds up lynched) up there gives us diddly to go off of, wagonomics-wise.
So I guess if you are town, do your best to not get lynched and pray to RNGesus that whoever the other guy is is scum.

Okay so this is about where I am right now:

HumanDawn
Anubhav Ghosh
Red Mones

Vroendel
NyghtOwl
ExLight
Minish

BraveSirRobin

Michi
Doc
Wischland
Gerrick
TGN
Wintermoot

cozmikrae
Imaginative Kane



If there's a particular placement you're not sure on please ask me.

Struggling to make out people in my bigger tier in particular, I would really like to see more from most of those people so I can get somewhere with them.

Forgot to do this earlier:
Vote: Imaginative Kane

Oh wait, do we only have less than 5 hours left? I've gotten unusually busy recently, have had less time to pay attention. Updated reads list from me -

Town and town leans -
Red Mones
HumanDawn
Anubhav
Nyght

cozmik
Gerrick
ExLight
Michi
Doc
Legacy
BSR
Wisch
TGN

Nulls -
Minish

Scum leans -
Wintermoot
Kane

I should clarify that with TGN my read is based mostly on the different level of effort and formatting of his posts as compared to last game, as I have decided that I can not read him based off his tone, and his content has for the most part either been based on inaccurate information or was confusing to me personally. For Minish I'm hearing a townie tone, but her votes and her top town read suggestion still is making me wary, and I likely will not move her up to town lean even though I do not wish to think about lynching her until much later as I think my wariness is justified.

I'm voting Kane because of the allegations brought against his posts and because I feel his D3 vote was suspicious enough in itself, and at this point my reads list isn't telling me where much else I could go.

Vote - Imaginative Kane

I shall try to stick on my vote this time, Lau.

Votecount at present:

TGN - 3 (Doc, ExLight, Minish)
Cozmik - 1 (HumanDawn)
BSR - 1 (Michi)
Kane - 2 (LoS, Vroendal)

Seriously, where are everyone else's votes? It's 4ish hours to EOD. Town cannot be pulling this shit again after the flurry of bullshit at the end got the Seer lynched.