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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

psh he wasn’t even halfway D1 when he posted that gimme a break

That particular quote of TGN's comes nearer to the end of D2, and judging by the tone and posting style I think it points nearer to a townie's post than not. TGN is a rather more chaotically aligned player who frequently posts what I personally consider to be nonsense but hey-ho. I will refrain from stating a certainty of his alignment for himself, but from the looks of how the Day yesterday went I would not be surprised to find him higher on the reads lists.

oh my bad hmm

I have much reading to do. I will post later.

Okay so firstly: 

It should be fairly obvious that I am not scum rather simply, because generally I devote far more time to games in which I am scum.  Take that for proof enough as you will lol. 

As far as stuff goes, it would seem to me that Ruguo and Vro are really dominating the conversation, and while I generally don't expect that to incriminate people, the fact that this is a vanilla game with basically "power role" or village dynamic means that I expect most people (like myself) who are town to have a lot less "skin in the game," as it were. 

Also, because Ruguo immediately tried to tie everything to the Valerians (Michi, Hapi and myself) and then the lynch of Hapi revealed town, I'm not convinced.  Especially because creating wagons day one is never a good thing for the town.

Consequently, the people on my personal "to consider" list are the following:
Vro, NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae, Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish. 

Which is "people who voted for Hapi or Michi, and Vro"

Now, Doc has turned on a dime and gone after Vro, which I definitely agree with, and he didn't change vote because wagonomics, which definitely makes sense and checks out, so I feel comfortable removing him from suspicion for now. 

That being said, I really like Minish's analysis, so I have to say I don't feel like this list is by any means definitive, though I definitely think that at least 2-3 people in this list are wolves. 

Thus my revised list of people who I'm really unsure about and might be wolves is:
Vro, NyghtOwl, Melehan, Cozmikrae, Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland. 

In that, I only feel relatively confidently about Vro for the weird metareasoning that I don't think checks out (at least with how I generally play).  Also my play style definitely changes quite often I think, because I generally enjoy relying on someone who I find relatively stable early on who is at least rather predictable and then latch on to the results of said person getting their way.  Generally, I rely on Lau for this because he's usually quite active and can sniff out wolves/if he is a wolf he kills me early so usually I don't have to worry about that lol. 

But alas he's the host now, so I can't rely on that.  I shall try to take a more active role from now on but no promises if there continues to be like 20 pages per time I view lol.  I've got like 6 tabs open trying to make sense of this whole thing 

My dear Robin, I think you have your order of events a little confused.

Hapi flipped town before I said anythign about the Valerians- and even then it was simply a joke about how many powerplayers are in that house. Lau's hosting, so he can't make that joke for this game. Someone had to do it.

I will admit I did jump on the Michi wagon, but I hardly created it. I simply felt his odd behavior for his meta on D1 was the best we had at the time- now we have more to go off of with the flippity flopping of votes.

Side note: In what world is town not doing anything good for town? I don't think anyone should have less skin in the game than others- I'm also known to just go prod around the thread to show I'm active and around to talk if anyone else is around, I do my best work bantering randomly with people. Would you like to banter, Robin? You also talk about how Lau is usually quite active and can sniff out the wolves, and I mean, would you expect him to dial it back just because he has "less skin in the game"? I'm sorry, that's just a bad argument.

I think I had this post bookmarked because I wasn't liking Silver, hadn't realized he was the one lynched D2. This post makes me think of Silver and BSR being on different teams though.

I happen to put Melehan in the Town Core section and hence I shall
Unvote
Vote: Ruguo

hmm, ok this really is townie at first glance
I'm still scumreading you though

If Ruguo flips green, I'm a dead man, and honestly I'd deserve it lol

I don't like this kind of comments before flips because I often see scum doing them.

aand that was what I had bookmarked for D2
Lemme check how the wagons evolved

So far to me:
Townlean - Vro, Wintermoot, BSR, maybe Michi and Minish
Scumlean - TGN, Sapph, Ogun

Kinda on the fence on Doc and Kane

can we get the players that still haven't posted in this phase pinged and called out in other places maybe

Vro's voting and unvoting still remains questionable to me , after all , if he turns out as a scum , he will have the best knowledge about lynch consequences . Either way , I have strong gut feelings , that Vro will be lynched in all certainty . Ig everyone would be happy to remove one suspect of the list of scum than keep one hoping him to be innocent . Sorry Vro if this hurts u , but u made a bad name for urself. I hope u understand whatever the play is here , u have drawn far too much suspicion

this post raises !!! in my head

“ye bro sorry if you’re good man you brought it on yourself not because our thinking could be wrong”

This was a decoy sort of post i would say . What i was looking for was retaliation , which unfortunately took place before this post as many cited Vro's chance of being a townie and no one . I looked out for people who did not retaliate , because even after the best defenses and clarifications i stubbornly stood on my words , and said things as if it was fixed that Vro will be lynched by the town . The post did not go very well , as i did not receive counters until now , and here I am justifying why i did it . It was just a measure to clear out some people out of suspicion momentarily

Whew, only one vote -- not as bad as I thought.

I decided to make a list of how many posts each player has made in this thread before this post to try to glean some sort of info from it.

post counts

84   Red Mones
69   Melehan ††
65   Minish
62   Vroendal
45   TGN
39   Ruguo ††
36   cozmikrae
25   Nyght
25   ExLight ***
25   Hapi †
20   Doc
17   Kane
14   Legacy ***
13   Sapphiron
11   Michi
11   HumanDawn ***
10   Gerrick
9   Wintermoot
9   Anubhav **
9   Wischland
4   BSR

**D2 sub
***D3 sub
†D1 death
††D2/N2 death

Not including the three new players in this stuff below since I want to see them more first.

Our obvious top living posters are Red, Minish, and Vroendal (and I suspect ExLight will quickly climb the list to join them). While Ruguo was definitely one of the more frequent posters, they weren't one of the ones who were really driving the conversation compared to the top 4. Considering Melehan flipped town (RIP), is everyone confident that the other top three are all town? I think it's definitely possible that there's scum in there. Also the fact that all three voted for Ruguo D2 means they would have bussed Ruguo if they're scum -- something to take note of.
Of the three, I'm leaning most Minish being scum in large part because of Melehan's suspicions of her (having been right about leading the Ruguo wagon). Also the whole "I wouldn't play like that as scum" bit doesn't really land for me.
Vroendal still doesn't sit as very town for me. Besides the whole late D1 vote-changing, he doesn't read as genuine as last game (can't exactly put my finger on it), although he is being quite helpful overall.
Considering Red was the second vote on Ruguo and encouraged others to vote them, this would be a deep play, but still possible -- I could see it happening that Ruguo was willing to sacrifice themself to focus on WW25.
BUT, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt for now since they're all driving discussion, which is good for town regardless.

Mid-tier posters include TGN, cozmik, Nyght, Doc, and Kane.
TGN is all over the place, of course, but what's still sticking with me the most is his post about how he didn't want to spend his school mornings trying to defend himself, which reads town. I don't buy the Laurentus/host derp clear, though.
Cozmik has been very wagon-happy and seems to change votes to follow the tide, which seems pretty sus to me.
As I said about Nyght before, he reads very genuine to me and is pretty clearly town.
Doc is playing quite differently than last game and is generally more helpful and active, which I like.
Kane has been laying out his thoughts on players pretty well, which reads in his favor, and I tend to agree with his pressure on BSR.

Quieter folks include Sapphiron, Michi, Wintermoot, Wischland, Anubhav, and BSR (... and me).
I'm no good at reading Sapphiron. But I don't like his D1 anti-meta arguments or his explanation for voting Ruguo, which didn't really line up (he posted a couple times between the time Melehan gave an argument for Ruguo and only switched to vote for them after they had gained a couple more votes).
Michi has been very quiet since EoD1, having only talked about Vro, TGN, and Alexander Valentine and then switched to vote Ruguo near the end.
Wintermoot was putting the pressure on Vroendal all D2, which seems like he was really trying to unearth some sort of truth from him. Also has yet to change a vote, so he sticks to his guns and doesn't follow the tide to appear towny.
I agree quite a bit with Wischland's most recent reads list, although I really don't like how she didn't vote D2.
Anubhav only came in on D2, so less to work with. Think the FoS on Kane is a little odd, although I agree with his warning that we should not change votes simply because people make a post to seem sympathetic -- this could cause us to move off a wolf and not circle back on them until it's too late.
Still the quietest in the game, BSR has been noticeably absent although he's been online. Also, his D2 sus list was quite lacking, as was his reasoning for voting Vro.

reads list

Town Lean
Red Mones
TGN
NyghtOwl
Doc
Kane
Wintermoot

Null
Vroendal
Michi
Wischland
Anubhav
[the three new players]

Scum Lean
Minish
cozmikrae
Sapphiron
BraveSirRobin

With all that said...

Vote: BraveSirRobin

Besides my suspicions of him laid out above, I think BSR's death will help give info on Sapphiron since he's also voting for him. Plus, it's not like we'd be losing an active member driving discussion... :/

This is a very high-effort Gerrick, I'm liking that. I think that perhaps you're not reading the "genuine" from me because I haven't been nearly as desperate or felt as attacked as last game, which I'm sure is a major influencer over the thoughts and motivations behind my posts, but it is what it is.

I'll bite at this BSR argument though, applying more pressure for that oomph is probably a good thing.

Vote - BSR

I may have more to dissect from the post later, I'm winding down at the moment.

I don't think Ogun has done a great job of it so far but I'm going to work on clearing my slot in days to come so don't worry about that. In the meantime, I'm working quietly on my reads on the background and will be here if there's anything you want to ask me to look at specifically.

uh I think I’m missing something what’s the logic behind the Robin lynch again

Ok this took absolutely ages but this is where I am with everyone so far:

Strongly Town:
HumanDawn
Red Mones
NyghtOwl

Town:
ExLight
Vroendel
Doc

Leaning Town:
Wischland
Michi
Minish

Null:
Anubhav
Wintermoot
cozmikrae
Sapphiron
BraveSirRobin

Leaning Wolf:
TGN
Gerrick
Imaginative Kane

I don't think all of my wolf leans are wolves together but I'm feeling hopeful that we get a red flip in there and can work from there. If there are any reads in particular you want me to explain please let me know, this already took ages so I didn't really have time to give a paragraph for each too.

uh I think I’m missing something what’s the logic behind the Robin lynch again

BSR has been on the wolfy side of null so far but so many people being eager to lynch them for very little and bottom reading them triggers some alarm bells that this could be an easy mislynch. I want to scrutinise the votes/reads on him more.

A lot of people appear to be focusing on meta reads a good deal this game and this concerns me. Once players start becoming aware of their own meta, they can use it to enter the towncore as a wolf. Wolves can also leverage meta as an easy way to push a mislynch and look blameless after (it's fairly likely that this almost happened already with Minish almost being lynched D1 and Hapi actually being lynched).

I've been big lazy and haven't reread things yet. Just was so tired after I woke up that I napped some more. But I'll try to get around to it in a bit.


Like Legacy said, it's interesting how easily BSR is gaining traction for seemingly no reason. A BSR lynch would actually give me some decent info I think. It's interesting that he's had 4 posts according to Gerrick, since he didn't vote d1 and voted Vro d2. I need to check when exactly he voted for Vro. Because if it was when Silver's wagon was taking off then that looks not good. I could see an inactive scum being pinged by his scumbuds to come in and try to help save one of them.

Also I'd like to hear more from Wisch. It's interesting that they're being townread by a few people when they've said very little and seemed a lot more active in the LotR game.

A bit offtopic, but me wording some of the site’s features with words like “jank” seems to have upset some people. I apologize for that, and I really did not intend for it to come out in a demeaning way.

I should’ve been more considerate about the effort put into this site, and will do my best to avoid repeating this kind of behavior.

alright back to the game; again, sorry if I upset anyone

A lot of people appear to be focusing on meta reads a good deal this game and this concerns me. Once players start becoming aware of their own meta, they can use it to enter the towncore as a wolf. Wolves can also leverage meta as an easy way to push a mislynch and look blameless after (it's fairly likely that this almost happened already with Minish almost being lynched D1 and Hapi actually being lynched).

Meta is probably one of the most important tools in more vanillaish setups since mechanical information provided by roles is limited, tbh. People might say vote analysis is the key, but you need some mets to know if a person never busses or always votes last second to break ties as town, or any stuff like this. So in the end it boils down to the context of Meta in a way.

Also, do you mean Michi almost being lynched? I remember people trying to throw paranoia shade on Minish but I don’t remember votes on her.