Poll

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes
7 (87.5%)
No
1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM


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Werewolf 24: Attack on Titan
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Legacy of Smiles
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  • I feel like this topic is coming up in the thread so I'm going to share my opinion on it: it's a really bad move to no lynch in this game.
    That math seems to me like it assumes a successful night kill every night - which is generally a useful assumption, but in this case, the N1 night kill didn't go off, either because it got blocked or they didn't submit a night action (which I find unlikely, since IIRC Lau ended N1 slightly early, which I doubt he'd do if he didn't get a night action).
    I've grown to be against no-lynch votes on principle, but I thought I should point out a potential flaw in your reasoning here.
    Got a ping on Discord from Red, so I suspect I have votes on me.
    If it's the same one I got, that's not WW business, that's Burner Business. WW is important, but nothing is more important than Burning down the Underhusen.
    Underhusen delenda est.
    so I’m pretty sure he’s aware Lau is the host. Him “derping” could’ve been him doubling down on this joke so I really don’t think we should consider that viable evidence in any way
    I'm personally opined that TGN is competent despite his relative newness to both the game and the forums, to the extent that he knows that playing Lost Little Lamb is an effective tool to guilt-trip clear himself. The only weight against that is that he and I were scumbuds in the last game, and for him to roll scum in both games he's played so far seems like it might be a mite unfair. Then again, that's werewolf, baby; sometimes the dice just shake out like that.

    Frankly, I still don't trust Vroendal and TGN. Perhaps I'm just tunneling, but I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.
    The two points in Vroendal's favor - one of which is a very tiny point, since it was a very big wagon which leaves a lot of room for scum just bussing their buds - is that 1) unlike with TGN, he was willing to vote for Ruguo/Silver, but at the same time Silv was right on the cusp of a majority lynch whereas at no point did either of TGN or Vro's wagons get above 6 votes, making a flip eminently plausible and 2) what are the fucking odds our 3 big wagons in one day would all be scum?
    ...which then drops me into a WIFOM situation of 'but man, if you could set that up, wouldn't that implicitly clear them for a lot of townies just on a 'what are the oooooodds' basis?' Since it's a WIFOM deal, doesn't seem like a useful line of inquiry to pursue.
    That's a fair point, I assumed it wouldn't be a thing that likely happened but it already has at least once. So slight revision: if we are running on an even number (like we currently are) then I think we should consider no lynching at ELO (assuming no confirmed towns alive) to force wolves to kill a potential lynch option.
    Legacy of Smiles
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    Vroendal
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  • Hello guys, I’m from Bulbagarden and from here I only know of ExLight, Minish and Vroendal. It’s going to take a while for me to read the game and get my groove on. In the meantime can somebody give me a bit of notes of what went on? Day 2’s lynch was a scum lynch - what helped achieve that?
    To be honest after going over some of the Day I realize that this synopsis is very heavily subjectively based, and I'm wondering whether it's useful to even accept this as a post, as it comes to a WIFOM argument of whether you should pay attention to it or not because it's too influenced by my personal perspective. If you think it's useful to read what I remember to see my personal viewpoint, I'll make D2, but both days were such a tangled mess I feel you would get a lot more value by reading it through from your own eyes. There's just too much room for error of who would find what significant.

    Like actually, I made this to keep part of my promise, it's trash though. Don't read it. Literally just ignore it.

    D1 synopsis (influenced from personal perspective)
    Vroendal
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    Vroendal
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  • I've been holding on to something regarding BSR for a while, but would honestly rather have us focus on the wagons before us atm. BSR hasn't contributed enough of anything to warrant a lynch D1, considering he even has yet to post. Let's just say if Michi flips scum, BSR will become the most likely player to be scum in my eyes immediately.
    Can you elaborate on this, it seems impossible for you to have something on them if they hadn't posted. And how can you even pair Michi and BSR when that's the case?

    This really picked silver's interest, hmm
    Silver said he understood what you meant, I wonder if yall bamboozled the mafia team N1 somehow.
    I explained it in a post D2 -
    Link between a scum Michi and BSR
    Vroendal
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    ExLight
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  • I've been holding on to something regarding BSR for a while, but would honestly rather have us focus on the wagons before us atm. BSR hasn't contributed enough of anything to warrant a lynch D1, considering he even has yet to post. Let's just say if Michi flips scum, BSR will become the most likely player to be scum in my eyes immediately.
    Can you elaborate on this, it seems impossible for you to have something on them if they hadn't posted. And how can you even pair Michi and BSR when that's the case?

    This really picked silver's interest, hmm
    Silver said he understood what you meant, I wonder if yall bamboozled the mafia team N1 somehow.
    I explained it in a post D2 -
    Link between a scum Michi and BSR
    oh I still have to reread D2 hmm
    that’s an interesting catch
    1 person likes this post: Vroendal
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    Vroendal
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  • I'm definitely struggling a bit to try to read so many players accurately with no meta info so my plan is to dial back for now and focus on a few specific people I think. My question: who are the people right now that is no real thread consensus on? Those are the people I think I'd like to look at first.
    Sapphiron, Wintermoot, yourself (by virtue of Ogun), I suppose Doc because his votes have been sub-optimal, I still am heavily uncomfortable with Minish despite people liking her posts, Kane, BSR, Anubhav, HumanDawn by virtue of ENE, Wisch to some extent, and Gerrick who is being pushed right now.

    I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.
    2 people like this post: Legacy of Smiles, Red Mones
    Vroendal
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    Vroendal
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  • I said there was a link between BSR and specifically scum Michi because BSR has done exactly 3 things this game: Ask to confirm the roles/abilities we had, liked Red Mones' response, and liked Michi's first post.
    Michi's first post for reference:
    Man, it's always weird just to see a vote or two in the first day when there's no rule requiring it day one...but I think this beats all.

    Ya'll are crazy.
    Yes, I was sussing a scum link for a like on a post, sue me. It is interesting just by virtue of being the only thing he's engaged with, to which you might ask why BSR would out himself like that. However, it is notable that he also voted someone early on as a town role in the LOTR game whereas now he has been silent and unengaged. Scum adopting similar tactics as their buddies is by no means an impossibility, and the open support of Michi's opinion despite his clear hypocrisy from his latest game as town is telling in my opinion. BSR was also quiet and asked questions about roles last game so no AI actions to be found from here andthere, it's (the post like) the only place where I can a true read on BSR.

    (I apologize at the time earlier this game when I said BSR hadn't posted, my eyes went right over his initial post on the first page.)
    Bleh, I just noticed errors I made, I have corrected them in bold.
    Vroendal
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    ExLight
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  • I'm definitely struggling a bit to try to read so many players accurately with no meta info so my plan is to dial back for now and focus on a few specific people I think. My question: who are the people right now that is no real thread consensus on? Those are the people I think I'd like to look at first.
    Sapphiron, Wintermoot, yourself (by virtue of Ogun), I suppose Doc because his votes have been sub-optimal, I still am heavily uncomfortable with Minish despite people liking her posts, Kane, BSR, Anubhav, HumanDawn by virtue of ENE, Wisch to some extent, and Gerrick who is being pushed right now.

    I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.
    I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

    although I do think you’re likely to be Town
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    Vroendal
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  • I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

    although I do think you’re likely to be Town

    As most of you can see, this game compared to my last, I am MUCH more active
    last game I didn't talk as much because I had something to fear
    IF I WAS A WOLF, WHY WOULD I BE THIS CONFIDENT!?
    irl I am shy and don't speak out as much, and my defence is not the best
    BUT I WILL NOT GO OUT UNDER FALSE CLAIMS
    "I am innocent of everything I am accused of"
    If I am to go out, I will go out innocent

    town
    There's one right now on TGN, and Melehan and Red bust up everyone's chops to save me from a D2 lynch so they certainly thought I was town, which resulted in the lynch of a titan. Previously TGN had also been a wagon contender with Silv, their interactions have been interesting, but I think most people are reading both of us as town.
    Vroendal
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    Doc
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  • I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.
    I've made clear how to change my mind.
    I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.
    This is what is causing me to drill down on you two. You've ignored it every time I've brought it up and you've refused to explain it at every turn. If you'd like it to stop, I think you pretty well know how to make it stop.
    1 person likes this post: cozmikrae
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    Vroendal
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  • I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.
    I've made clear how to change my mind.
    I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.
    This is what is causing me to drill down on you two. You've ignored it every time I've brought it up and you've refused to explain it at every turn. If you'd like it to stop, I think you pretty well know how to make it stop.
    On that topic, I stated in my first reads list I feel very uncomfortable trying to read TGN because of how badly I fooled myself last game, I have come to the conclusion that I can no longer trust my read on him, especially when it's just nonsense/chaos.

    I voted him at one point after he self-voted and said something about going out with honor, which I took to mean a confession. Upon my poking he clarified and then after Silv's insistence presented some of the best posts I've ever seen from him, which certainly shows far more effort put into this game than the previous. I would've voted him to save my own skin for certain, but the possibility of lynching Ruguo seemed a better option to me even from the first. I dislike voting until I feel set on it, as I'm aware I tend to second-guess myself all the time and waiting for clearer voting moments reduces spam and confusion overall.
    Vroendal
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    cozmikrae
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  • Wow.., I have a lot of reading and rereading to do. I’m in the car all day driving back from a camping trip. Won’t have much reception. I’ll check back in with some thoughts tonight hopefully.
    2 people like this post: Vroendal, ExLight
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    ExLight
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  • I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

    although I do think you’re likely to be Town

    As most of you can see, this game compared to my last, I am MUCH more active
    last game I didn't talk as much because I had something to fear
    IF I WAS A WOLF, WHY WOULD I BE THIS CONFIDENT!?
    irl I am shy and don't speak out as much, and my defence is not the best
    BUT I WILL NOT GO OUT UNDER FALSE CLAIMS
    "I am innocent of everything I am accused of"
    If I am to go out, I will go out innocent

    town
    There's one right now on TGN, and Melehan and Red bust up everyone's chops to save me from a D2 lynch so they certainly thought I was town, which resulted in the lynch of a titan. Previously TGN had also been a wagon contender with Silv, their interactions have been interesting, but I think most people are reading both of us as town.
    psh he wasn’t even halfway D1 when he posted that gimme a break
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    Vroendal
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  • psh he wasn’t even halfway D1 when he posted that gimme a break
    That particular quote of TGN's comes nearer to the end of D2, and judging by the tone and posting style I think it points nearer to a townie's post than not. TGN is a rather more chaotically aligned player who frequently posts what I personally consider to be nonsense but hey-ho. I will refrain from stating a certainty of his alignment for himself, but from the looks of how the Day yesterday went I would not be surprised to find him higher on the reads lists.
    Vroendal
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    Legacy of Smiles
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  • Well... through some huge coincidence it turns out that ENE is actually somebody I know and have played a lot of games of discord mafia in the past... they were even a moderator on my old mafia discord server. Suffice to say, I read the ENE portion of the slot as null to lean town (inactivity is NAI for them and the tone of the "I was actually wolf that game" message gives me good vibes because of the confidence he's showing). HumanDawn comes in and starts immediately solving which I think is a great look and I agree with most of their assessments (full reads + explanations are coming from me but it's taking longer than expected). Probably my top town read right now.
    2 people like this post: Vroendal, ExLight
    Legacy of Smiles
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    Legacy of Smiles
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  • Also the irony that the tortoise and the turtle know each other is noted.
    6 people like this post: Vroendal, ExLight, TGN, Minish, Melehan, Red Mones
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