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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

TGN did vote for you a couple posts ago.

Oh, good looking out. Christ, I keep missing posts.

I just don't want to get lynched
Vote: Doc
I might get lynched anyway but if not then this vote will save me
nothing personal, sorry doc...
we are cool right?

How would voting me keep you safer? I'm already not voting for you, there's no wagon on me that could be brought to a tie, and if I was inclined to an OMGUS vote it would put you in more danger.
I don't really know how many more times I can note that you'd be better off voting for Vroendal (just as he'd be better off voting for you), and the fact that the two of you are so committed to not voting for each other is either 1) incredibly bizarre behavior if you're townies, 2) evidence that you're both townie power roles or part of a Seer Squad, in which case Christ one of you just soft reveal already, or 3) scumbuds. 3) is obviously the most likely, since a) I can't imagine why on earth townie power roles would play so scummy, and b) the odds of us picking two townies that are aware of each other as the majority wagons are incredibly slim, so I'm basically tripling down on 3).
But, I mean, whatever, you're safe for the present since Vro has 1 more vote on him than you do.

To me it just makes much more sense that even if he had somehow gotten the usual luck that a previous player used to have in 9/10 times rolling as wolf, he would have been given a pass to relax and enjoy a different role for his second game since he's still learning the ropes.

you can say me, it's fine

Hopefully This Time 100% Accurate Count:
Votecount at present is
Vroendal - 5 (Me, Gerrick, BSR, Cozmikrae, Nyght)
TGN - 4 (Silv/Ruguo, Vroendal, Sapphiron, Minish)
Ruguo - 1 (Mel)
ENE - 1 (Self-vote)
Doc - 1 (TGN
Alexander Valentine - 1 (Michi)

Alexander and Ogun are all up for an inactivity lynch if they don't vote today (pending clarification below?).
Likewise for ENE, Michi, TGN, and Vro if they unvote.
Amitav, Kane, Red, and Wischland still haven't voted but aren't at IL risk.

Vroendal: Split votes early on, Michi's wagon picked up steam after he jumped on. His flip flop at the end contributed to Hapi's death. Possibly an honest mistake. But Hapi said she'd vote for Vro, if Michi was wolf. After she points that out, he deliberately unvotes and abdicates his responsibility in the vote. Feels weird to me...

A rather long response, I ask that you all take the time to read it through

I am not abdicating my responsibility in the vote and I would never say anything like that. I instigated the main part of the wagon against Michi because I had seen what seemed to me to be a worrying discrepancy in the timing of his D1 vote as compared to recent previous games he played as town and a town-aligned neutral. This discrepancy aligns with the most recent game where he was a wolf. His defense then was unsatisfactory, he made no attempt to draw out any information or voice his suspicions as a town might have done, and he gave suggestions to an important power role, which should always be a worrying event. This all together caused me to be nearly absolutely convinced he was scum, but I did hold back being completely fixated, only stating 90% certainty.

At that time a couple players had mentioned they felt uncomfortable with Michi's vote. I considered that I could just be tunneling on a very suspicious townie. I grew more worried that this was the case as he adamantly resolved to not state any suspicion, I wondered whether scum Michi would risk himself like that, but fell back on considering that his behavior was anti-town, the recent meta agreed to the extent I had already researched, and his defense did have worrying fragments beyond that. When Hapi made her post, she mentioned that she felt uncomfortable with Michi's vote, and I considered that if she were town this was a large enough amount of players stating their discomfort that I should probably take more notice. If she were scum, she could be trying to save her scum-buddy, and she herself had not said anything that made me think she was town. I had been thinking of this all the way up to the last moments, and I felt the pressure to save a town if I thought Michi could be one, even if he did have anti-town behavior.

I felt irritation at Hapi's statement, because I knew if I did happen to be wrong it would be a very annoying next few phases as Hapi went after my head even though I was innocent, but I resolved to ignore it. It did not effect my final voting place. The timing is unfortunate, but her statement of discomfort of Michi's lynch was the straw that broke the camel's back.

I learned about 5 minutes before EoD that if there was a tie it would result in a coinflip. The pressure become too much, and I reasoned that though I thought Michi suspicious, didn't mean that I was in the right and I should hedge my bets. At the last moment I decided to tie it and leave it to RNG, hoping we lynched scum, we did not.

So now here we are, and you're voting for my lynch. I ask that you reconsider the reasoning I have presented and whether it makes more sense that it occurred as I claim, or that I am scum with a convoluted idea of hiding behind meta. I have not once used meta as a defense for my reasoning, it is a tunneled theory. I also could mention there would probably be better targets for me to go after as scum than a chaotical townie and a disengaged townie with anti-town behavior.


As a finishing statement, I dislike how easily people are finding it to vote me, especially since beyond my flip-floppiness (which is NAI) I've drawn people out the most and generally have pried for answers as a townie should. My logic has been consistent with no errors I can see, the only real attack against me is a convoluted WIFOM reasoning. Certain players it appears have adopted a line of thinking in which they tunnel onto me with the assumption that I'm scum, which while useful at times for considering possible motivations and links, should NOT be the only perspective one takes of a single player for an entire phase.

(Sidenote, I do plan on responding to Moot, I'm just not up to the task of that particular defense atm)

There have been 6 new replies since starting to write this post, I am posting it without having read them. If there is a claim against me I shall answer it at a later point.

Alright, after a complete re-read of the game, here are my thoughts:

Michi

After a complete read through, I think the whole Michi thing was an absolute nothing-burger. Like, a tiny meta hint, that turned into a 5 person wagon? Kinda ridiculous, and @Melehan says something I'm inclined to agree with here:

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

And @Sapphiron:

Shrugs Suspicious because I refused to join mountain out of molehill bandwagons in D1 phase, one of which proved to be wrong already. Since you asked, I provide some individuals who give me town vibes - Melehan (reaction tests are good), Vro (I like to see hesitation better than decisiveness in D1), Michi (part of the 2 main wagons of D1)

Secondly, the same way Lau picked up Vro being "genuine" and ended up not voting him is the same way I see Michi right now. Genuine. The attitude I saw from Michi D1 was very much genuine annoyance in the way he was pushed hard against purely for a small meta hint (which as I pointed out I'm inclined to agree with).Especially here:

I mean, if you're really that convinced, then please continue the train.  It worked well enough in the last game where I was Smeagol, and since I was a turret 2 (technically 3 games since Summersend) games ago in Portal and that logic ended up proving correct in that game, then by all means incoporate it here.

As I said, I just want to play a vanilla game where we're not all at each other's throats D1 like it used to be, but if that makes me scum, then please do keep the train going and lynch me if you're that sure, I absolutely won't try to stop you.

I've played with wolf Michi once before, and this isn't it.

Ruguo

Yeah so I was kinda sus of Silv since D1. I mentioned that as town they were far more analytical, here they were throwing suspicion wherever they could, including Michi, Doc, BSR, Ogun, and like 2 more I can't remember. More let me throw out stuff and see what sticks instead of how can I logically deduce things. Also, another good observation by Mel here:

Ruguo - Seems mighty eager to ascribe scummy intent to what are likely the actions of inexperienced players. Very carefully distancing themself from those plays.

I also noticed Ruguo says:

In all seriousness, I would ask you to not trust me as a host to learn how anyone plays, or remember it. When I'm on the other side, I'm gone. I'm laser focused on making things work, and unless there's a major infraction or a mod-request, I pretty much ignore who said what when and how.

I will apologize to Ogun if that is the case.

But then says:

Honestly, Mel isn't giving me scum vibes. Granted, I haven't played with a scum Mel and hosting games does warp your perspective quite a bit, but I'm honestly seeing the same patterns I'm used to seeing from her. It is day one, and she's far from off the hook altogether, but if I had to read based off of the data thus far, mal would have at least earned a spot in lime.

Sort of a stretch, but from I'm reading it sounds like Silv says "I don't pay attention to meta as host" then says "Mel is town based on what I remember from playing with her and hosting. Mildly contradictory.

Here's where things get interesting though, Gerrick:

Gerrick

So Gerrick starts off with a joke vote on Michi. Vro starts the Michi meta catastrophe, and Gerrick uses this as a great opportunity to get a town lynched (assuming Michi is town, which I'm inclined to think). Only reasoning being "his responses to Vro rub me the wrong way" Not strong at all, but okay. Vro is listed as Town Lean in reads list. With little activity in between, they're now voting for Vroendal. What happened to Michi who was in Scum lean? I don't know, the jumping seems ridiculous at first, but makes sense from a scum perspective. Bank on Vro's push to get an easy town lynch, now that the tides turn against vro, bank on that to get another easy town lynch.

And that makes even more sense if we assume Vro is town, which honestly, I still am. The meta, the reactions, the questions, the activity, the genuine-ness (doesn't sound like a real word, but apparently it is) and as Sapph pointed out, the ultimate uncertainty on D1 all make me think he's still town. The votes against him are racking up. That scares me.

Also, Mel and Doc are extremely solid. Definitely Town lean, even possible Town core.

@Sapphiron (im sorry butchered the spelling)
why did you vote me so soon after @Cozmikeray (sorry again)

It’s not a matter of “so soon”, her vote against you didn’t factor into my consideration against you.

Snip

Now to (finally) articulate the link I spotted between Red and Minish.

In addition to the post Vro made linking Red and Minish together, I found it very interesting how Red had a wagon forming on him early D1 that essentially dissolved. And yet, even as Minish seemed determined to cast suspicion on Red and get a viable third wagon going, she was simultaneously distancing herself from actually voting for Red.

Minish hops onto the Red Wagon after Moot.
Minish teases Vro with a link to Moot.
Minish backs off sussing Red.
Minish denies the Moot connection, noting that she doesn't play nice with her scumbuds.
Minish continues advocating for a third wagon while distancing herself from sussing Red specifically.
Minish switches to Michi as the 5th vote on the Michi Wagon.

What this indicates to me is that either Minish is a Wolf and Red is Town, or both Minish and Red are Wolves and Minish was looking to cement her Town Cred by bussing Red. Minish at that point in the game was pretty unanimously being read as Town, and what better way to cement that than to be seen voting for a Wolf Wagon other players had abandoned?

Additionally, if Michi is actually Town as I suspect, Minish's switching to be the 5th vote on the Michi Wagon would take out one Town early without putting too much sus on her because the general consensus of Town was that "Michi is Sus" and Minish had convinced most of the talkative Town to read her as Town.

Combined with how Doc, Vro, and I all suspect at least one powerwolf in this game and how Ruguo admitted to being unable to discern between Town Minish and Scum Minish, I'm beginning to strongly suspect that Minish is our resident powerwolf. Especially considering the clash Minish had with Vro earlier today over Vro objecting to Town giving only their Top Town Read.

There are other smaller things, like Minish being certain that the Wolves did NOT pull a NKN1 and the Doc confusion that also nudge me towards "Minish is SCUM", but as it stands, I'm seeing links between Minish and Red, Ruguo, and Vro. There are also weaker links between Minish and Moot and Doc.

How many of those links are manufactured/incidental, and whether or not Minish is a Wolf, remains to be seen since this is only D2.

EOD and tonight will be interesting.

Solid points here. I'm seeing a bit of a link between Ruguo and Minish. We're both sus of Ruguo, you've made some strong points about Minish. Both have tried to distance themselves from each other sometimes, seemingly uncalled for (like Minish saying she has half a mind to vote Ruguo, but votes Michi despite him being an easy lynch which she was worried about). If one's a wolf, I'd bet the other is too.

As a finishing statement, I dislike how easily people are finding it to vote me, especially since beyond my flip-floppiness (which is NAI) I've drawn people out the most and generally have pried for answers as a townie should. My logic has been consistent with no errors I can see, the only real attack against me is a convoluted WIFOM reasoning. Certain players it appears have adopted a line of thinking in which they tunnel onto me with the assumption that I'm scum, which while useful at times for considering possible motivations and links, should NOT be the only perspective one takes of a single player for an entire phase.

More town points for Vro as everything he says here I covered already or agree with. Especially his point about the convoluted WIFOM reasoning. I expect far more deductive and logical play from Gerrick, which is why his jump makes me so suspicious. One thing that also worries me is Minish is far, far better than all of us, and they can easily fly under anybodys radar. Melehan who I strongly think is town seems to be the only person who's actually "scum-hunting". If they find something sus with Minish, there is probably something to be worried about. I'd almost say Minish, Ruguo and Gerrick are 3/4 of our wolves, but I won't go that far yet.

Regardless:

Vote: Ruguo

Spoiler

Alright, after a complete re-read of the game, here are my thoughts:

Michi

After a complete read through, I think the whole Michi thing was an absolute nothing-burger. Like, a tiny meta hint, that turned into a 5 person wagon? Kinda ridiculous, and @Melehan says something I'm inclined to agree with here:

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

And @Sapphiron:

Shrugs Suspicious because I refused to join mountain out of molehill bandwagons in D1 phase, one of which proved to be wrong already. Since you asked, I provide some individuals who give me town vibes - Melehan (reaction tests are good), Vro (I like to see hesitation better than decisiveness in D1), Michi (part of the 2 main wagons of D1)

Secondly, the same way Lau picked up Vro being "genuine" and ended up not voting him is the same way I see Michi right now. Genuine. The attitude I saw from Michi D1 was very much genuine annoyance in the way he was pushed hard against purely for a small meta hint (which as I pointed out I'm inclined to agree with).Especially here:

I mean, if you're really that convinced, then please continue the train.  It worked well enough in the last game where I was Smeagol, and since I was a turret 2 (technically 3 games since Summersend) games ago in Portal and that logic ended up proving correct in that game, then by all means incoporate it here.

As I said, I just want to play a vanilla game where we're not all at each other's throats D1 like it used to be, but if that makes me scum, then please do keep the train going and lynch me if you're that sure, I absolutely won't try to stop you.

I've played with wolf Michi once before, and this isn't it.

Ruguo

Yeah so I was kinda sus of Silv since D1. I mentioned that as town they were far more analytical, here they were throwing suspicion wherever they could, including Michi, Doc, BSR, Ogun, and like 2 more I can't remember. More let me throw out stuff and see what sticks instead of how can I logically deduce things. Also, another good observation by Mel here:

Ruguo - Seems mighty eager to ascribe scummy intent to what are likely the actions of inexperienced players. Very carefully distancing themself from those plays.

I also noticed Ruguo says:

In all seriousness, I would ask you to not trust me as a host to learn how anyone plays, or remember it. When I'm on the other side, I'm gone. I'm laser focused on making things work, and unless there's a major infraction or a mod-request, I pretty much ignore who said what when and how.

I will apologize to Ogun if that is the case.

But then says:

Honestly, Mel isn't giving me scum vibes. Granted, I haven't played with a scum Mel and hosting games does warp your perspective quite a bit, but I'm honestly seeing the same patterns I'm used to seeing from her. It is day one, and she's far from off the hook altogether, but if I had to read based off of the data thus far, mal would have at least earned a spot in lime.

Sort of a stretch, but from I'm reading it sounds like Silv says "I don't pay attention to meta as host" then says "Mel is town based on what I remember from playing with her and hosting. Mildly contradictory.

Here's where things get interesting though, Gerrick:

Gerrick

So Gerrick starts off with a joke vote on Michi. Vro starts the Michi meta catastrophe, and Gerrick uses this as a great opportunity to get a town lynched (assuming Michi is town, which I'm inclined to think). Only reasoning being "his responses to Vro rub me the wrong way" Not strong at all, but okay. Vro is listed as Town Lean in reads list. With little activity in between, they're now voting for Vroendal. What happened to Michi who was in Scum lean? I don't know, the jumping seems ridiculous at first, but makes sense from a scum perspective. Bank on Vro's push to get an easy town lynch, now that the tides turn against vro, bank on that to get another easy town lynch.

And that makes even more sense if we assume Vro is town, which honestly, I still am. The meta, the reactions, the questions, the activity, the genuine-ness (doesn't sound like a real word, but apparently it is) and as Sapph pointed out, the ultimate uncertainty on D1 all make me think he's still town. The votes against him are racking up. That scares me.

Hmmm... I don't remember saying anything about hosting in that quote. It seems like you're putting words in my mouth, and I don't like that very much Red. I said exatly what you quoted- it's the same patterns I'm used to seeing from her. Remember that in Lau's werewolf last year that kinda died over the holidays Mel was in fact the one that sussed me out first- I understand how Mel works to a certain extent.

Anyway. I promised that if TGN gave me what I wanted, I would unvote.

Unvote

Now, it's presently looking like Vro is up for the chop, and me unvoting is not helping any other wagon get remotely close to it. I'm okay with a Vro lynch, but I would prefer a BSR lynch, even though that's not relaly on the table.

I did like Mel's observations about Min- there are some parallels when pointed out that reflect her behaviour as scum in the last game we played.

I didn't particularly like Michi's latest post- While is can appreciate random bugging of lurkers, now is not the time. It feels to me like he's trying to avoid being on one of the major wagons. And while yes, I am climbing off one and not immediately jumping to the other, I also won't be randomly starting a new wagon this close to EoD. Random lurkers are gonna get killed off anyway.

Sapph is still coming across rather short and uncomfy for me, but I promised an actual ISO before I moved on that, and the vote on him from earlier seems to have gone away, so it's not worth trying to start a wagon with  so little time.

So my options remain Doc, TGN, Vro, Myself (I'm not libk, I'm not going to vote myself), ENE, or Alexander (Who's most likely looking at a modkill).

Of those, I don't think Doc is particularly scummy, and I just put a bunch of effort into getting TGN to contribute things, so I'm not voting there. I find it pointless to be on a wagon for a self vote or an inactive in imminent danger of dying, so that just leaves my owl pal.

Vote: Vroendal

At least your lynch will afford us information, even if you're not my first choice. You're hardly my last choice though, so okay? Okay.

Hmmm... I’m inclined to respect both Red and Mel’s logic. And Vro’s moving plea for his innocence makes me rethink my vote.

I’m not sussing Minish, but since people said they are very good at this game.... now I want to reread D1 again. But I may not have time or the cell reception before EOD. I’m going to
Unvote
and potentially put in my
No lynch
for this game.

I’m not getting strong reads, and the people I had feelings about have solidified their innocence.

More town points for Vro as everything he says here I covered already or agree with. Especially his point about the convoluted WIFOM reasoning. I expect far more deductive and logical play from Gerrick, which is why his jump makes me so suspicious. One thing that also worries me is Minish is far, far better than all of us, and they can easily fly under anybodys radar. Melehan who I strongly think is town seems to be the only person who's actually "scum-hunting". If they find something sus with Minish, there is probably something to be worried about. I'd almost say Minish, Ruguo and Gerrick are 3/4 of our wolves, but I won't go that far yet.

Regardless:

Vote: Ruguo

I had said I would likely end up voting Ruguo for the reasons I had presented earlier, it should not come as a shock that I am now switching my vote now. TGN has presented more effort in his recent posts than I've ever seen before from him in WW, and even if there are points I disagree with and would like him to expound upon, I think that he would go down more easily as a wolf, the effort he put in (as either alignment) is commendable and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.


Vote: Ruguo

I admit that I'm not sold on Minish being scum quite yet, over the night phase (if I survive today) I shall investigate a Minish/Ruguo scum link if Ruguo flips scum today. I think this is a good starting point. I've been town-reading Gerrick in spite of his vote against me, I shall take time to consider your theory, but I would definitely go after Minish first. I'm just not really feeling scum vibes from him. Though it's not a full excuse for his reasoning I combated earlier, I find his claim to be less involved in this game due to out-of-game circumstances is probably believable, and would be likely to contribute to any errors in his push, at least to some extent.

Time to read Silv's post now.

@Ruguo Why shouldn’t I jump on the band wagon and vote for you?

@Ruguo Why shouldn’t I jump on the band wagon and vote for you?

Uh... Because I'm a terrible person and should definitely not be kept around, ever?

Wait no, wrong defense

I don't see you as a wagoning kind of person, Rae. I think you've thought out every step you've made, and you would have voted me already if you thought that was what was best. The fact that you're asking this question leads me to think you already know the answer.

I'm not scum. I've done my best to both jump on things I find odd as well as steer newer players in the right direction. I'm admitedly playing a bit differently this game- I want the newer players such as yourself to get the experience of hunting- so I'm doing a lot more prodding around than usual to stir up the dust.

I'd also ask you to consider: Would scum spend so much time trying to get TGN to prove his innocence? If I were scum, I could easily have left it with his wagon clearly in the lead and gone home happy- but I didn't, because I'm not scum, and he deserves better than that.

That’s true actually. The whole TGN thing is the one reason I don’t feel comfortable.

But about the wagoning comment: wagons are how things get done. Me applying 1 random vote, or refusing to vote is useless. Unless I join with others who I feel have our best interest at heart, or convince them to join me, we won’t get anything done.

But the TGN thing either links you two, or makes you town. I’m still inclined to think TGN is innocent. So still no lynch for me I suppose.

And to those who keep insisting that I "seem off", you have given extreme weight on the previous game, which if you notice, if not for Lau burning down my dwelling and forcing me out into the open, I would usually not volunteer as one of the Town Leaders unless I am absolutely certain who I am campaigning against is a scum. So yes, unless you come at me with a 5-stack pile demanding I create read lists, I post when I see the need to.

Silv Quote

Anyway. I promised that if TGN gave me what I wanted, I would unvote.

Unvote

Now, it's presently looking like Vro is up for the chop, and me unvoting is not helping any other wagon get remotely close to it. I'm okay with a Vro lynch, but I would prefer a BSR lynch, even though that's not relaly on the table.

I did like Mel's observations about Min- there are some parallels when pointed out that reflect her behaviour as scum in the last game we played.

I didn't particularly like Michi's latest post- While is can appreciate random bugging of lurkers, now is not the time. It feels to me like he's trying to avoid being on one of the major wagons. And while yes, I am climbing off one and not immediately jumping to the other, I also won't be randomly starting a new wagon this close to EoD. Random lurkers are gonna get killed off anyway.

Sapph is still coming across rather short and uncomfy for me, but I promised an actual ISO before I moved on that, and the vote on him from earlier seems to have gone away, so it's not worth trying to start a wagon with  so little time.

So my options remain Doc, TGN, Vro, Myself (I'm not libk, I'm not going to vote myself), ENE, or Alexander (Who's most likely looking at a modkill).

Of those, I don't think Doc is particularly scummy, and I just put a bunch of effort into getting TGN to contribute things, so I'm not voting there. I find it pointless to be on a wagon for a self vote or an inactive in imminent danger of dying, so that just leaves my owl pal.

Vote: Vroendal

At least your lynch will afford us information, even if you're not my first choice. You're hardly my last choice though, so okay? Okay.

Okay. Your reasoning seems fine to me, the only problem is I think you could totally make that post as scum, I'm not feeling the specific townie vibes anymore. I do think you're scum at this point.

I'd also ask you to consider: Would scum spend so much time trying to get TGN to prove his innocence? If I were scum, I could easily have left it with his wagon clearly in the lead and gone home happy- but I didn't, because I'm not scum, and he deserves better than that.

I don't think the rational scum would be especially motivated, but I think regular Silv and scum Silv are a little different, and you're using the more genuine tone from regular Silv helping a newer player to give town cred to scum Silv. Just calling it like I think it.

(If you turn out to be scum I would like to have "POCKET THIS!" attributed to me, thank you)