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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

In what world is town not doing anything good for town?

Facts.
Wolves succeed because of information asymmetry, because they know exactly who's on their side (every other wolf) and who isn't (everybody else). They may not have all the facts (not knowing the power roles), but they know more than basically everybody else in the game. Consequently, it behooves them to play as many cards as possible as close to their chest as possible for as long as possible. Overplaying that hand can end disastrously, as perhaps best demonstrated by my tragic Faramir soft-claim last game, or more hypothetically, if a wolf soft-claims a power role - since now the person who actually has the power role will be dramatically more suspicious of someone claiming a role they definitively do not have.

Logically, it follows that it suits town best when everyone plays as much of their hand as possible as openly as possible. Obviously there are limitations to this - revealing your role is, for example, a terrible crime - but for another example, read-lists are useful simply because they essentially force you to say something about everyone - and thus create more avenues for wolves to overplay their hands. This often results in more chaff being thrown up by clueless townies stumbling around blindly in the dark, but the longer the game goes on and the more information town is able to dredge up simply by virtue of staying alive, the more likely we are to win.
As a corollary, balancing number of townie lives against information gained is why an early no-lynch is pointless, because that is precisely when townie lives are worth least (unfortunate as that is to say) by virtue of being in high supply, and information is worth most, by virtue of being incredibly scarce.

So seeing how we were wildly wrong about Hapi. I reread the entire thread to rethink through who I felt was sus or not.

Definitely sus:
TGN: mysteriously votes and unvotes... with little discussion or explanation. Mostly posts jokes or one-liners. I'm very, very suspicious.
Vroendal: Split votes early on, Michi's wagon picked up steam after he jumped on. His flip flop at the end contributed to Hapi's death. Possibly an honest mistake. But Hapi said she'd vote for Vro, if Michi was wolf. After she points that out, he deliberately unvotes and abdicates his responsibility in the vote. Feels weird to me...

Might be sus:
Doc: Not sure. Encouraged a day 1 lynch, and on the Hapi wagon. Later apologized. Either a very earnest townie, or a very good wolf.
Mel: Demanding blood sacrifices. Not sure if the loudness of the demands make her more or less sus.
ENE: Also pro D1 lynch. Did not vote though.

Less than sus:
Red Mones just being Red Mones. I'm not seeing any reason I dislike him. Not really confronting anyone. Flipping votes at a moments notice. Could also be hiding some shit though.
Nyght: Hella innocent. Super innocent. Unbelievably innocent...
Minish: Contributes to the town discussion.
Ruguo: I don't really have a read on. Red mentioned he was throwing the sus around and less analytical than in the past.
Sapphiron: Voted with RNG. Unless that was a lie, says to me they have no informed reasons to vote for anyone in particular. Probs town.
Michi: Many comments claiming he behaved oddly in this game vs. others. Not sus enough for me, and whether or not he's wolf, his defense felt like pure frustration rather than guilt. I can't vote for Michi unless I were to see something other than irritation and frustration from him.
Kane: No read really. But seems generally helpful.


Side note: could someone explain the concept of "wagonomics?"

I suppose if I was to go with what I can see right now my two closest to scum reads would be:

Vro. Their defense this day has been less about their own innocence and more casting doubt on anyone elses logic. It feels like someone who's just trying to show distrust in other people.

BSR: Who's big claim to not scumminess is that he doesn't play scum like that. Which is a weird thing to claim. Like, saying that you've played scum differently in the past, I get that, but like, anything else? Because that's not a lot. If it's well known that you play differently in different roles than an obvious strategy would be to switch it up and rely on people's knowledge of an obvious meta.

Honestly...

Vote: TGN

Honestly what?

Honestly, I talked myself into voting.

tell me
what did you think that made you vote moi

It's in my post up there. You liked it. lol

You don't explain your reasons for votes or unvotes. And you're flip floppy. You're the most suspicious at this point. I'm sussing Vro too. But you're the most sus. Care to comment? Talk me out of it?

OH
my votes were jokes

Side note: could someone explain the concept of "wagonomics?"

Explanation:
Very briefly, it's looking at voting patterns to figure out whether or not someone on the chopping block is scum. It sort of assumes some level of powerwolfing.
If there's a big bunch of people who hop aboard one wagon in particular - especially if it happens without too much or overly convincing evidence of scum nature - there's a good chance that person is town, and scum are piling in order to drive a mislynch.
Having multiple viable wagons helps make it easier to note if that's happening, since if there's a big pile on one in particular, it indicates one of two things: with good evidence, scum are going for a bus play, and with poor evidence, scum are trying to drive a mislynch to keep their scumbud alive.

Application:
Considering that 8 people didn't vote at all yesterday and both wagons only got up to 4 votes, there's a reasonably good chance that from a wagonomics basis, one of the two main wagons was on scum, at least one member of scum was either powerwolfing or making a bus play (a likely candidate for this being Vro, since if we assume Michi was scum, bussing Michi that early would be pretty unprecedented, and backing out of the vote at the last second gives 50-50 odds of either 'aha my suspicions were right!' to claim all the benefits of the bus without actually making a bus play, or mislynching town), and the others were flying under the radar either by design or by virtue of inactivity.
Essentially, if we lynch Vro today, and he turns out to be scum, Michi moves up quite far on my scumspect list as the main beneficiary of his last-minute switch at EOD1. If we lynch and Vro isn't scum, then Michi is likely not scum, and we either need to 1) be looking at the people who voted but weren't on either wagon as attempting to fly under the radar while knowing a mislynch was functionally guaranteed, or 2) if there's no night kill again, strongly considering the possibility that most of the scum team is inactive. Which would be quite a dull way for the game to go and on the one hand, hopefully that won't be the case, but on the other, fuck it, a win's a win.

I just want to note really quick that I was in the middle of going over the D1 votes with a fine-tooth comb, but then my sister informed me she needs all the bandwidth to do an upload for her job, so that's getting put on hold for tonight.

I just got to page 5, so, it'll be a while...

I would also like to say that I would be very surprised if there isn't at least one wolf on the Michi train because it gained traction a lot faster than the trains on Hapi and Red did, even with several people flip-flopping votes.

Side note: could someone explain the concept of "wagonomics?"

Explanation:
Very briefly, it's looking at voting patterns to figure out whether or not someone on the chopping block is scum. It sort of assumes some level of powerwolfing.
If there's a big bunch of people who hop aboard one wagon in particular - especially if it happens without too much or overly convincing evidence of scum nature - there's a good chance that person is town, and scum are piling in order to drive a mislynch.
Having multiple viable wagons helps make it easier to note if that's happening, since if there's a big pile on one in particular, it indicates one of two things: with good evidence, scum are going for a bus play, and with poor evidence, scum are trying to drive a mislynch to keep their scumbud alive.

Application:
Considering that 8 people didn't vote at all yesterday and both wagons only got up to 4 votes, there's a reasonably good chance that from a wagonomics basis, one of the two main wagons was on scum, at least one member of scum was either powerwolfing or making a bus play (a likely candidate for this being Vro, since if we assume Michi was scum, bussing Michi that early would be pretty unprecedented, and backing out of the vote at the last second gives 50-50 odds of either 'aha my suspicions were right!' to claim all the benefits of the bus without actually making a bus play, or mislynching town), and the others were flying under the radar either by design or by virtue of inactivity.
Essentially, if we lynch Vro today, and he turns out to be scum, Michi moves up quite far on my scumspect list as the main beneficiary of his last-minute switch at EOD1. If we lynch and Vro isn't scum, then Michi is likely not scum, and we either need to 1) be looking at the people who voted but weren't on either wagon as attempting to fly under the radar while knowing a mislynch was functionally guaranteed, or 2) if there's no night kill again, strongly considering the possibility that most of the scum team is inactive. Which would be quite a dull way for the game to go and on the one hand, hopefully that won't be the case, but on the other, fuck it, a win's a win.

Ok thanks for this explanation. Can you explain the application in your wagonomics reasoning for your Hapi vote then?

Might as well make my own minor reads list at this point.

Reads List

Town Core -
Nyght - Behavior, reasoning, and tone very highly indicative of towniness. If Nyght's a wolf I have never been more thoroughly bamboozled.

Town Leans -
Red Mones - Behavior highly indicative of town imo, making very reasonable defenses for his actions, not afraid to have a stand-alone controversial opinion.
Gerrick - Traditional town Gerrick activity level, early and insightful reads list.
Wischland - Started off with not much original line of thought, explained herself for that well, has behaved similarly to her last game here. Provides insightful reasoning when prompted.
cozmikrae - Reasoning follows what I believe is a townie line of thinking. Making questionable susses but aligns with what I hesitantly expect from a newer player.

Nulls -
Melehan - Chaotic probing, yet what I feel are town motivated reads and analysis, need more knowledge about to state a town lean for certain.
Ruguo - Would almost put them in town leans, except I can't shake the nagging feeling that the admittedly townie line of thought they are presenting would be easy for them to fake with their playstyle and talent. Sees things rather differently from the majority, which I like.
Wintermoot - I never have any idea how to read Moot. Line of thought very similar to last game's, branching off on vanity wagon again, what I feel is townie reasoning presented with flaws, yet the lower participation makes it hard to be more sure of his alignment.
Kane - Has made one decent size post, would prefer to see his promised second decent-sized post before making any judgments. Want to put him in town leans.
Doc - Admittedly more scum-hunting and posting than last game which is promising, yet an underdeveloped vote (surrounded by otherwise good reasoning) which I admittedly have a personal bias against prevents me from moving him up.
Anubhav - Need more participation in the game to make a read.
Sapphiron - Has had maybe one good post but has otherwise dipped, which at D2 is disappointing and a detriment to town. May threaten again.
Alexander - I do not think a wolf would be this disengaged, but with absolutely no sign that he even has opened this thread his activity may be NAI.
ENE - Has spoken once or twice, would greatly like to hear his personal line's of thinking.
TGN - Why do you do this to me... I do not feel comfortable attempting to read.
Minish - Always has excellent reasoning and a great town tone, which makes her suggestion all the more worrying to me personally. Presents a scenario which at worst will reveal a power role to the wolves, at best presents a case of WIFOM later on making it unnecessary and/or dangerous.
Ogun - ALWAYS sounds sus, has presented inconsistent logic, which unfortunately may be NAI. Has posted at a better rate.
BraveSirRobin - Has appeared to be disengaged, has emerged with a decent post with several problems instantly shot down by Silv. If Michi is a wolf I believe BSR has higher chance of being a wolf.

Scum Leans -
Michi - Started off with a slight meta sus, have been very unsatisfied by his responses, still can't shake the worry that many experienced players who have played with Michi are uncomfortable with his vote and that his activity at this point may speak more to a disengaged town than a saved wolf. Would be up for lynching at least for info if no new leads are presented.

If you have a question about this list I will attempt to answer to your satisfaction. In short, the lynches I personally am slightly more comfortable with atm whether they will be possible/favorably viewed or not are: Michi, BSR, Ogun, Minish.

If it's a question of self-preservation I may be inclined to lynch the other null reads.

I would also like to say that I would be very surprised if there isn't at least one wolf on the Michi train because it gained traction a lot faster than the trains on Hapi and Red did, even with several people flip-flopping votes.

Of all the people on the train, disregarding myself, the one I might least expect to follow me for reasoning which experienced heads are saying is bad, is Minish. Just something to think about. It should also be remembered that Gerrick was the initial vote, whose reasoning I extrapolated on, whether you can make something of that or not.

TGN - Why do you do this to me... I do not feel comfortable attempting to read.

that's it...
I just make you uncomfortable?
pls just read me, please. I need to know what the masses think of me