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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

I feel like this topic is coming up in the thread so I'm going to share my opinion on it: it's a really bad move to no lynch in this game.

That math seems to me like it assumes a successful night kill every night - which is generally a useful assumption, but in this case, the N1 night kill didn't go off, either because it got blocked or they didn't submit a night action (which I find unlikely, since IIRC Lau ended N1 slightly early, which I doubt he'd do if he didn't get a night action).
I've grown to be against no-lynch votes on principle, but I thought I should point out a potential flaw in your reasoning here.

Got a ping on Discord from Red, so I suspect I have votes on me.

If it's the same one I got, that's not WW business, that's Burner Business. WW is important, but nothing is more important than Burning down the Underhusen.
Underhusen delenda est.

so I’m pretty sure he’s aware Lau is the host. Him “derping” could’ve been him doubling down on this joke so I really don’t think we should consider that viable evidence in any way

I'm personally opined that TGN is competent despite his relative newness to both the game and the forums, to the extent that he knows that playing Lost Little Lamb is an effective tool to guilt-trip clear himself. The only weight against that is that he and I were scumbuds in the last game, and for him to roll scum in both games he's played so far seems like it might be a mite unfair. Then again, that's werewolf, baby; sometimes the dice just shake out like that.

Frankly, I still don't trust Vroendal and TGN. Perhaps I'm just tunneling, but I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.
The two points in Vroendal's favor - one of which is a very tiny point, since it was a very big wagon which leaves a lot of room for scum just bussing their buds - is that 1) unlike with TGN, he was willing to vote for Ruguo/Silver, but at the same time Silv was right on the cusp of a majority lynch whereas at no point did either of TGN or Vro's wagons get above 6 votes, making a flip eminently plausible and 2) what are the fucking odds our 3 big wagons in one day would all be scum?
...which then drops me into a WIFOM situation of 'but man, if you could set that up, wouldn't that implicitly clear them for a lot of townies just on a 'what are the oooooodds' basis?' Since it's a WIFOM deal, doesn't seem like a useful line of inquiry to pursue.

That's a fair point, I assumed it wouldn't be a thing that likely happened but it already has at least once. So slight revision: if we are running on an even number (like we currently are) then I think we should consider no lynching at ELO (assuming no confirmed towns alive) to force wolves to kill a potential lynch option.

Hello guys, I’m from Bulbagarden and from here I only know of ExLight, Minish and Vroendal. It’s going to take a while for me to read the game and get my groove on. In the meantime can somebody give me a bit of notes of what went on? Day 2’s lynch was a scum lynch - what helped achieve that?

To be honest after going over some of the Day I realize that this synopsis is very heavily subjectively based, and I'm wondering whether it's useful to even accept this as a post, as it comes to a WIFOM argument of whether you should pay attention to it or not because it's too influenced by my personal perspective. If you think it's useful to read what I remember to see my personal viewpoint, I'll make D2, but both days were such a tangled mess I feel you would get a lot more value by reading it through from your own eyes. There's just too much room for error of who would find what significant.

Like actually, I made this to keep part of my promise, it's trash though. Don't read it. Literally just ignore it.

D1 synopsis (influenced from personal perspective)

I know you've most likely already gone through D1, but as a refresher for myself and others, D1 started as a chaotic mess with a slurry of joke votes and wagons all over the place. There was more significant discussion on Hapi's chaotic playstyle making her a good lynch, and why lynching D1 was a good idea. The turning point of the day I feel was when I tried to figure out a vote on any of the current wagons through actual effort in justification and made this post (which conveniently lays out the past votes of the day, huzzah, less work) -

Well, many hours have elapsed and not a great amount has happened.
As a reminder, currently the order of votes have gone like:
Red Mones - Hapi (For a joking comment)
Hapi - RM (In retaliation)
Hapi - Melehan (Given reason to fulfill the prophecy)
RM - cozmikrae (For the same joking comment as Hapi)
Wintermoot - NyghtOwl (Saw the more senior members as likelier to be scum)
Doc - Silv (Given reason as Doc's scum curse)
Vroendal - Sapphrion (Given reason as RNG)
Michi - Gerrick (Michi's opinion is wrong and he's a bad person)
Sapph - TGN (Given reason "for all the reasons you guys voted each other")
Mel - RM (Paranoia from Mel's references, immediately unvoted)

The wagons are rather spread out atm with a majority on Hapi and RM with 2 votes. The most convincing reason up here right now to me is actually the vote on Michi oddly enough XD, in the past games he's been among the first to vote, this change in tactics requires more explanation. I'm aware this will make the majority split three ways, still a good amount of time left.

Vote - Michi

It should be noted that I had miscounted and with Red's switch of votes there was only a majority on Hapi. This prompted research into Michi's past games from various players (including himself) where it was found that in the three most recent games his meta had been a earlier votes (one as a retaliation joke vote, which I mean, still counts as an early vote no matter how you twist it) as 2 town aligned roles, and his 1 scum game showed that he voted much later in the day. His other games took place more than a year ago. This prompted votes/pushes at various points in the day from Ruguo, Wisch, and Minish, while some stated their discomfort with a wagon instigated by meta. Melehan made a push against cozmik for what she viewed as suspicious reasoning and voting patterns. Michi presented his defense, which I personally found fault with, but further promoted stated discomfort in his vote from other players. At some point Red was pushed by Minish for defending cozmik. I tried to draw him out more, and unvoted him, he presented more defense which included refusing to state perspectives on other players and suggesting night action choices from the Seer which prompted me to double-down and vote him again. At this point there was one less vote on Hapi prompted by wagonomics reasoning from Doc. After Hapi stated discomfort in Michi's lynch, I made a last-minute decision to unvote and leave it to a coinflip. Hapi was lynched, and flipped villager. There's more I could go over but this is just a synopsis from my memories and skimming the Day Phase. The voting ended with these choices -
Ruguo - 1 (Red Mones)
Red Mones    - 1 (Wintermoot)
Vroendal - 1 (Sapphiron)
Adorable Oracle Hapi - 4 (NyghtOwl, Melehan, Doc, Cozmikrae)
Michi - 4 (Ruguo, Gerrick, Wischland, Minish)
BraveSirRobin - 1 (Imaginative Kane)
Cozmikrae - 1 (Hapi)

I spent much more time on the Michi dilemma rather than the Hapi votes, as this is what mainly led to the next day's events.

I've been holding on to something regarding BSR for a while, but would honestly rather have us focus on the wagons before us atm. BSR hasn't contributed enough of anything to warrant a lynch D1, considering he even has yet to post. Let's just say if Michi flips scum, BSR will become the most likely player to be scum in my eyes immediately.

Can you elaborate on this, it seems impossible for you to have something on them if they hadn't posted. And how can you even pair Michi and BSR when that's the case?

This really picked silver's interest, hmm
Silver said he understood what you meant, I wonder if yall bamboozled the mafia team N1 somehow.

I explained it in a post D2 -

Link between a scum Michi and BSR

Oh yeah @Vroendal, what was the link between Michi and BSR?

I said there was a link between BSR and specifically scum Michi because BSR has done exactly 3 things this game: Ask to confirm the roles/abilities we had, liked Red Mones' response, and liked Michi's first post.

Man, it's always weird just to see a vote or two in the first day when there's no rule requiring it day one...but I think this beats all.

Ya'll are crazy.

Yes, I was sussing a scum link for a like on a post, sue me. It is interesting just by virtue of being the only thing he's engaged with, to which you might ask why BSR would out himself like that. However, it is notable that he also voted someone early on as a town role in the LOTR game whereas now he has been silent and unengaged. Scum adopting similar tactics is by means an impossibility, and the open support of Michi's opinion despite his clear hypocrisy is telling in my opinion. BSR was also quiet and asked questions about roles last game so no AI actions there, it's the only place where I can a true read on BSR.

(I apologize at the time earlier this game when I said BSR hadn't posted, my eyes went right over his initial post on the first page.)

I've been holding on to something regarding BSR for a while, but would honestly rather have us focus on the wagons before us atm. BSR hasn't contributed enough of anything to warrant a lynch D1, considering he even has yet to post. Let's just say if Michi flips scum, BSR will become the most likely player to be scum in my eyes immediately.

Can you elaborate on this, it seems impossible for you to have something on them if they hadn't posted. And how can you even pair Michi and BSR when that's the case?

This really picked silver's interest, hmm
Silver said he understood what you meant, I wonder if yall bamboozled the mafia team N1 somehow.

I explained it in a post D2 -

Link between a scum Michi and BSR

Oh yeah @Vroendal, what was the link between Michi and BSR?

I said there was a link between BSR and specifically scum Michi because BSR has done exactly 3 things this game: Ask to confirm the roles/abilities we had, liked Red Mones' response, and liked Michi's first post.

Man, it's always weird just to see a vote or two in the first day when there's no rule requiring it day one...but I think this beats all.

Ya'll are crazy.

Yes, I was sussing a scum link for a like on a post, sue me. It is interesting just by virtue of being the only thing he's engaged with, to which you might ask why BSR would out himself like that. However, it is notable that he also voted someone early on as a town role in the LOTR game whereas now he has been silent and unengaged. Scum adopting similar tactics is by means an impossibility, and the open support of Michi's opinion despite his clear hypocrisy is telling in my opinion. BSR was also quiet and asked questions about roles last game so no AI actions there, it's the only place where I can a true read on BSR.

(I apologize at the time earlier this game when I said BSR hadn't posted, my eyes went right over his initial post on the first page.)

oh I still have to reread D2 hmm
that’s an interesting catch

I'm definitely struggling a bit to try to read so many players accurately with no meta info so my plan is to dial back for now and focus on a few specific people I think. My question: who are the people right now that is no real thread consensus on? Those are the people I think I'd like to look at first.

Sapphiron, Wintermoot, yourself (by virtue of Ogun), I suppose Doc because his votes have been sub-optimal, I still am heavily uncomfortable with Minish despite people liking her posts, Kane, BSR, Anubhav, HumanDawn by virtue of ENE, Wisch to some extent, and Gerrick who is being pushed right now.

I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.

I said there was a link between BSR and specifically scum Michi because BSR has done exactly 3 things this game: Ask to confirm the roles/abilities we had, liked Red Mones' response, and liked Michi's first post.
Michi's first post for reference:

Man, it's always weird just to see a vote or two in the first day when there's no rule requiring it day one...but I think this beats all.

Ya'll are crazy.

Yes, I was sussing a scum link for a like on a post, sue me. It is interesting just by virtue of being the only thing he's engaged with, to which you might ask why BSR would out himself like that. However, it is notable that he also voted someone early on as a town role in the LOTR game whereas now he has been silent and unengaged. Scum adopting similar tactics as their buddies is by no means an impossibility, and the open support of Michi's opinion despite his clear hypocrisy from his latest game as town is telling in my opinion. BSR was also quiet and asked questions about roles last game so no AI actions to be found from here andthere, it's (the post like) the only place where I can a true read on BSR.

(I apologize at the time earlier this game when I said BSR hadn't posted, my eyes went right over his initial post on the first page.)

Bleh, I just noticed errors I made, I have corrected them in bold.

I'm definitely struggling a bit to try to read so many players accurately with no meta info so my plan is to dial back for now and focus on a few specific people I think. My question: who are the people right now that is no real thread consensus on? Those are the people I think I'd like to look at first.

Sapphiron, Wintermoot, yourself (by virtue of Ogun), I suppose Doc because his votes have been sub-optimal, I still am heavily uncomfortable with Minish despite people liking her posts, Kane, BSR, Anubhav, HumanDawn by virtue of ENE, Wisch to some extent, and Gerrick who is being pushed right now.

I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.

I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

although I do think you’re likely to be Town

I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

although I do think you’re likely to be Town

As most of you can see, this game compared to my last, I am MUCH more active
last game I didn't talk as much because I had something to fear
IF I WAS A WOLF, WHY WOULD I BE THIS CONFIDENT!?
irl I am shy and don't speak out as much, and my defence is not the best
BUT I WILL NOT GO OUT UNDER FALSE CLAIMS
"I am innocent of everything I am accused of"
If I am to go out, I will go out innocent

town

There's one right now on TGN, and Melehan and Red bust up everyone's chops to save me from a D2 lynch so they certainly thought I was town, which resulted in the lynch of a titan. Previously TGN had also been a wagon contender with Silv, their interactions have been interesting, but I think most people are reading both of us as town.

I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.

I've made clear how to change my mind.

I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.

This is what is causing me to drill down on you two. You've ignored it every time I've brought it up and you've refused to explain it at every turn. If you'd like it to stop, I think you pretty well know how to make it stop.

I think people have generally come to the conclusion that I (though Doc seems to disagree), Red, cozmik, TGN, Nyght, and possibly Michi are more likely to be town.

I've made clear how to change my mind.

I find myself just completely unable to get over why the two of them were so insistent on not just voting for the other to save their own skin. It worked out for the best that we didn't lynch either of them yesterday, but I'm just inescapably fucking hung up on this, and it's not at all helped by the fact that neither of them seems willing to explain what prompted this.

This is what is causing me to drill down on you two. You've ignored it every time I've brought it up and you've refused to explain it at every turn. If you'd like it to stop, I think you pretty well know how to make it stop.

On that topic, I stated in my first reads list I feel very uncomfortable trying to read TGN because of how badly I fooled myself last game, I have come to the conclusion that I can no longer trust my read on him, especially when it's just nonsense/chaos.

I voted him at one point after he self-voted and said something about going out with honor, which I took to mean a confession. Upon my poking he clarified and then after Silv's insistence presented some of the best posts I've ever seen from him, which certainly shows far more effort put into this game than the previous. I would've voted him to save my own skin for certain, but the possibility of lynching Ruguo seemed a better option to me even from the first. I dislike voting until I feel set on it, as I'm aware I tend to second-guess myself all the time and waiting for clearer voting moments reduces spam and confusion overall.

Wow.., I have a lot of reading and rereading to do. I’m in the car all day driving back from a camping trip. Won’t have much reception. I’ll check back in with some thoughts tonight hopefully.

I have yet to see someone saying you and TGN are towny

although I do think you’re likely to be Town

As most of you can see, this game compared to my last, I am MUCH more active
last game I didn't talk as much because I had something to fear
IF I WAS A WOLF, WHY WOULD I BE THIS CONFIDENT!?
irl I am shy and don't speak out as much, and my defence is not the best
BUT I WILL NOT GO OUT UNDER FALSE CLAIMS
"I am innocent of everything I am accused of"
If I am to go out, I will go out innocent

town

There's one right now on TGN, and Melehan and Red bust up everyone's chops to save me from a D2 lynch so they certainly thought I was town, which resulted in the lynch of a titan. Previously TGN had also been a wagon contender with Silv, their interactions have been interesting, but I think most people are reading both of us as town.

psh he wasn’t even halfway D1 when he posted that gimme a break

psh he wasn’t even halfway D1 when he posted that gimme a break

That particular quote of TGN's comes nearer to the end of D2, and judging by the tone and posting style I think it points nearer to a townie's post than not. TGN is a rather more chaotically aligned player who frequently posts what I personally consider to be nonsense but hey-ho. I will refrain from stating a certainty of his alignment for himself, but from the looks of how the Day yesterday went I would not be surprised to find him higher on the reads lists.

Well... through some huge coincidence it turns out that ENE is actually somebody I know and have played a lot of games of discord mafia in the past... they were even a moderator on my old mafia discord server. Suffice to say, I read the ENE portion of the slot as null to lean town (inactivity is NAI for them and the tone of the "I was actually wolf that game" message gives me good vibes because of the confidence he's showing). HumanDawn comes in and starts immediately solving which I think is a great look and I agree with most of their assessments (full reads + explanations are coming from me but it's taking longer than expected). Probably my top town read right now.

Also the irony that the tortoise and the turtle know each other is noted.