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That being said, I would like @Wintermoot 's Gerrick reasoning which was omitted.

Omitted may be the wrong choice of word, I simply commented on the players who were most relevant at the time I posted...the three players the round largely revolved around and the remaining player in danger of being voted off. While I noticed there was a wagon on Gerrick at some point in the round, it had disappeared by the time I was able to post.

That being said, it seems like the most suspicious thing about Gerrick is the fact that he brought Dawsinian into the tie in the first round...in a way, he's been blamed for the reasoning, while Vro has been blamed for pushing him out of the tie. It's possible that one of them is a wolf, but I doubt both are...why would they team up on the first round to specifically push Daws into being lynched? It would have been safer for them to continue the Laurentus/Michi tied bandwagon, or to cast 'vanity wagons' as they seem to be called.

In the second day, Gerrick voted for Vro early on...he wasn't the only person to do so, but it is a bit ironic that he casting suspicion on Vro for agreeing with him. If I had to pick Gerrick and Vro, I'd say that Gerrick's vote is more in line with what I expected from a wolf in the first round: line up villagers for RNG to kill off in order to avoid the kind of scrutiny that comes with being the person that pushes a villager into getting lynched. However, I also suspected Sapphiron and Daws of that as well in the first round, and obviously in Daws's case I was wrong. Laurentus also seemed to strongly believe he's a villager at the beginning of the round, and it's an opinion that seems to have carried a lot of weight, but he doesn't seem so sure toward the end (when he says there's a 1/3 chances that Gerrick is innocent).

Interestingly enough, Gerrick was proven to be correct when he said that Michi was probably an unaligned role when most people believed he was a wolf-aligned Gollum to Hapi's town-aligned Smeagol...an idea that Laurentus dismissed as speculation. Wolf or not, being proven right has to count for something.

I guess when it comes to it, I don't believe both Gerrick and Vro are both wolves, but it's possible that one of them are and it's also possible that neither of them are. it's hard to get anything more definite when we're talking about events that spawned from a vote on the first day when there was little to even speculate about.

Where did I dismiss it as speculation?

Just gonna repost this. Still think she's Aragorn. Also, I think around this time is what Wintermoot's referring to about Laurentus saying I'm speculating.

Yeah, I'm not really buying the whole Hapi/Michi are Smeagol/Gollum thing. I'm thinking Hapi defended Michi (or some other action) last night phase, and she's saying she's certain Michi is not scum because there was no wolf kill. Her justification is very shaky -- just as her justification was against me earlier... -- so I'm going to say just because Hapi is likely town does not in any way mean Michi is. I'm guessing he is an unaligned Smeagol/Gollum if we are to take his character hints as true. If that is the case, it might be a waste to lynch him, although I'm by no means against him getting lynched. If there is a possible upside to his role, there is just as likely a possible downside.

Also @Gerrick, I am rather surprised you're openly speculating about Hapi's role openly. That is distinct anti-town behaviour.

I'm not speculating what Hapi's role is, just that she has a role. How else would she mechanically know someone's alignment?

How exactly to you explain Sapph's certainty that Hapi is Town?

That first quote you're mentioning was well after we began speculating that your roles were tied.

As to your second quote, I would think that if someone were falsely claiming to be linked with you, you would make it much clearer to everyone that Hapi was straight up lying than a cryptic RP post.

Hapi hasn't claimed to be tied to Michi, just to someone AFAIK. She just claims that she mechanically knows he's not scum (which I'm not certain of). It's still possible that she is Town in this situation. It's possible that she does not have contact with the player she's tied to, but if that player dies then she does.

Ah, right, but telling you not to speculate is not the same as dismissing the speculation itself.

Wait so if Hapi says he knew who Gollum was, and wasn't evil and wanted to not waste days, that just makes me confused.  Because either Hapi is (A) Frodo or something who is "with Gollum" , etc.  OR he's a Nazgul/Sauron/etc who knows who Gollum is and is covering his tracks.  Alternatively, (big stretch but thinking out loud here) Hapi is Smeagol, and they have some sort of tag-team win condition like get the ring? 

  this is so far from the truth I dunno what to say lol.

So we killed an unaligned which doesn't help us... cool. 

Here's the problem with lying and misleading: no one knows what the hell to make of you, now. Don't do it again.

This whole game is about lying and misleading. And TBF I just ran with the speculation you guys throw out about me I've never claimed to be anything, that would break the rules.

There is some truth in what I say the question is who will find it. I donut know but I do know that my shield protects the fellowship.

It’s not a big stretch, we have been discussing your third option for the past 10 pages Hapi denies, hinting at Aragorn instead. But that was one of the 3 contentions driving the day phase.

I'm popular  look ma I made it.



Searching my name in this thread returned 427 results... I'm special lol.

Getting caught up now, will try to give my thoughts on stuff and not make it too long. Lol.

Just looking at voting though Vroendal doesn't look great to me at the moment. Will see how he looks when reading the thread. But d1 seems like it was probably a bunch of townies being voted for so mafia didn't bother trying to push any certain wagon and let town do their thing. D2 however, 9 to 4 vote with Michi vs Vro looks like it could have been mafia trying to save their scumbud. Michi was 3rd party but might as well treat him as town when looking at it that way. So if Vro seems scummy and the vote went the way it did, that definitely puts the voters on Michi under scrutiny. Vro looks especially bad considering the voters on him as well (Dawsinian, Hapi, Michi, Gerrick). Dawsinian is confirmed town, from what little I've read it seems Hapi might be town, Michi is third party, and Gerrick is an unknown to me at the moment. Anyone know if he's likely to bus as mafia or not? That can help me read him a little more town for that vote or not.

@Minish I originally thought Gerrick was mafia. Still not sure but he hinted at Legolas and I'm leaning that way on him now.

Where did I dismiss it as speculation?

At the risk of drawing more attention to the point, Gerrick, I would characterise that as speculation.

That's the post that made me feel that you dismissed it as speculation.

Yeah, the point there was not to be dismissive of the speculation, but to warn him against speculating at all.

There might be others, @Minish, but this is the only scum game I remember seeing from Gerrick. Also scum this game: Sapphiron and Doc.

https://wintreath.com/forums/index.php?topic=5615.0

It's relatively short, so should give you some good info from which to draw meta reads.

Aaaaaaaaa.
Had a bunch of quotes, accidentally backed out of the page when I went to reply to them and I lost them all. 

I guess I'll just try to briefly summarize some thoughts I had. Read through d1 and was quoting stuff to reply to as I read it so I'll likely forget quite a bit of the stuff I was gonna say without the quotes.


Laurentus looked town from d1. There were a couple of iffy things I quoted (mainly remember the thing about cop checking Hapi, which directing actions like that is meh) but for the most part I think he looked more town than scum. He had a lot of good analytical posts, was pushing people to vote, and like I said before it came across as more confident Laur than worried scum Laur. He also made a good point about the eod wagons looking (I believe he called it) vanity wagons, which is exactly what they were.


Vro actually did come out of d1 looking not too great too me. He did have some points in his back and forth with Laurentus, but overall I felt more scum vibes from him. Suffice to say that if one of Vro/Laurentus flips scum the other is very unlikely to be aligned with them. I found his post asking Sapphiron what he thought of Laurentus so early a little odd, but it's a little hard to tell for sure not knowing relationships/how people play here. His post responding to Laur asking what Vro himself thought of Laur felt safe to me and the wording didn't feel as town. The vote on Gerrick seemed an easy one for scum to throw on a townie without much reasoning behind it. But his vote for Daws looked even worse. I believe it also broke the tie. (Side note - can anyone tell me what happens in the even of a tied vote here?)


Hapi made some very obvious references to Aragorn, which is interesting and I'll have to see if anyone responded in any way to that d2. But Laur brought up the point that I was thinking when reading that which was that it would be a bold play if she's scum. There is without a doubt someone who is Aragorn in this game so it would be easily "counterclaimed".

The new players from another forum (sorry forgot the forum name) were really suspicious to me until I found out they were all from a different place. No lynching d1 is almost always bad since it gives you no info to build off of. Day interactions are more important than night actions. You need to force mafia to show their hand by making them vote and then analyzing that.


Sapphiron had me a bit suspicious. His read on Laur was that "Laur is Laur" and then said there's not really much to work on the first day phase. Which seems like an excuse to sit back and let town lynch themselves.

Wintermoot had a post that was pretty good (I think I had a couple of issues with it but the overall idea was decent). He was speculating on pairings based on interactions. He ended up voting Sapph out of it. The reasoning wasn't the most sound, but I also felt a bit suspicious of Sapph.


There were maybe one or two posts of Wischland's that I liked...until he jumped in to vote Daws out of nowhere and said he would explain (but didn't before eod, so if he has I haven't gotten to it).

Doc had a couple of good posts to me at the beginning. I especially liked that he gave the new people benefit of the doubt instead of throwing more suspicion on them like would be simple for scum to do to try to get easy lynches.


Hard to remember what I thought of everyone without having to reread and requote everything but these were what sticks out in my mind the most.


Simple d1 reads list.

Town Lean
Laurentus
Doc
Hapi
Turtle
Wintermoot


Scum Lean
Vro
Sapph


Wischland (Gonna put him here because I did really like his first replies to Laur giving his analysis on the game, but I also really hated that Daws vote at the end so he's like both scum and not scum til I get more info)


Neutral/Everyone Else
BraveSirRobin
Eastern New England
Flying Eagles
Gerrick
HumanSanity
ogunbiyi6422
The Greenlandic North
Wille-Harlia

Just under two hours left in this phase! Please send me your night actions if you haven’t already!

@Red Mones, could you kindly bookmark this post?

Yes! Done.

@Minish: Tied votes are decided randomly.

No one died last night.
This is the end of Night 2, and the beginning of Day 3. Phase ends in 48 hours on Tuesday, the 15th, at 12 PM PST.

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@BraveSirRobin
@Dawsinian
@Doc
@Eastern New England
@Flying Eagles
@Gerrick
@Princess Hapi
@HumanSanity
@Laurentus
@Minish
@ogunbiyi6422
@Sapphiron
@The Greenlandic North
@turtle
@Vroendal
@Wille-Harlia
@Wintermoot
@Wischland

I'm pretty sure I was jailed. I also wonder if that is why there's no night kill.