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Okay, yeah, I've become really paranoid. This is Werewolf at its finest. I'm going to take a break and come back to look at everything again a bit later, because right now, everyone looks sus to me.

Werewolf: All Sus, No Trust.

I did not like Moot's vote at all. :/
I feel very very good about Wischland.

You feel very very good about someone voting the same way as you? That's shocking.

Wow... you guys really go at it I guess. I was just making a fun round one random vote. Wasn’t trying to start anything.

Theoden (Dawsinian), the "Roleblocker", was lynched.

The final vote count was:
Dawsinian - 4 (BraveSirRobin, Gerrick, Vroendal, Wischland)
Michi - 2 (Laurentus, Sapphiron)
Laurentus - 2 (Michi, Dawsinian)
Hapi - 1 (Doc)
TGN - 1 (Turtle)
Doc - 1 (Hapi)
Sapphiron - 1 (Wintermoot)
Turtle - 1 (TGN)

This is the end of Day 1, and the beginning of Night 1. Send me your night actions. Phase ends in 24 hours on Thursday, the 10th, at 12 PM PST.

Important note: I apologize for the confusion on the EoD time. I did say it would end roughly 72 hours, which would be around 9-ish tonight, however I did note the phase would be ending at 12 PM  PST today. 12 PM my time is the best time for me to make phase updates, so I adjusted the first day phase so it would end right about now. To hopefully clear up any confusion in the future, phase changes will consistently happen at 12 PM PST. Again, I apologize for the confusion.

Mentions

@BraveSirRobin
@Dawcreek
@Dawsinian
@Doc
@Eastern New England
@Flying Eagles
@Gerrick
@Princess Hapi
@HumanSanity
@Laurentus
@Michi
@newvitalania
@ogunbiyi6422
@Sapphiron
@The Greenlandic North
@turtle
@Vroendal
@Wille-Harlia
@Wintermoot
@Wischland

Okay, yeah, heads are rolling.

Wow, a lot has happened in the last day or so.

I wanted to wait to vote because I don't believe a wolf would draw undue attention to themselves in the first round. I think they're more likely to vote at some point, try to get lost in the shuffle, and let the villagers duke it out among themselves. However, a unique opportunity opened up for the wolves when Laurentus and Michi voted for each other...both are strong players, and both would be big losses for the villagers if they're on that side.

Them voting for each other isn't necessarily suspicious in and of itself on the first round, but then Dawsinian and Sapphiron in short order pile onto those votes with no good explanation and no reconsideration as 9 pages of thoughts and information piled up, even though they've both made other posts since then. Sounds a lot like trying to get lost in the shuffle to me. But that raises the question of who is working with who?

The most obvious answer would be that Laurentus and Sapphiron are working together. Laurentus did make the first vote against Michi, and it also happens to be the vote that The Greenlandic North attached himself to on the next page. But it also seems kinda obvious and risky. If this held true and Michi was revealed as town, then at least 2 of the 4 wolves are under suspicion right out the gate.

Or it could be Michi and Dawsinian. What better way to get rid of someone than claiming self-defense? If Laurentus were voted off and revealed as town, many people probably wouldn't think anything of it cause he did make the first vote, and voting back is just retaliation, right? But again, that could still backfire, and you again have 2 of 4 wolves under suspicion so early in the game.

I think the more likely scenario at this point is that Laurentus and Michi are both town, Laurentus made his vote cause that's just what Laurentus does in Werewolf, and it's understandable that Michi would vote back. If they're both town, then what would it matter which one of them got voted off? Why pile everyone on one person right out the gate? If you divide it out, then you don't have a batch of wolves looking suspicious. So maybe Sapphiron and Dawsinian are working together here, a sort of divide and conquer strategy.

But I can only vote for one, so Vote: Sapphiron, because TGN piled on the same person as him in the beginning. I know TGN is a new player, but what if as a new player he thought he was supposed to vote for the same person his fellow wolf was voting for? He only changed his vote because he was coming under such heavy suspicion...he himself says he didn't want to be lynched when he changed it. It's not certain that he initially voted for Michi for that reason, but it's a possibility, which is all we kinda have on the first turn.

Highly speculative of course, but what more can you have on day 1?

I did not like Moot's vote at all. :/
I feel very very good about Wischland.

You feel very very good about someone voting the same way as you? That's shocking.

I'm sorry this is taking a while Lau, my response was all laid out but my log-in time expired before I posted. I didn't like the way it laid out the process, it just felt needlessly confusing to me (sorry Moot, I'm just struggling to read it). It assumes that the wolves are specifically working together, which is rather bold won'tcha say? But my biggest issue is the sus on TGN, it feels like beating a dead horse at this point to return to that topic, perhaps in an effort to further derail? I feel that Doc laid out a very clear analysis, why ignore it?

It's language like "shocking" that also makes me feel iffy.

I'm just not feeling good about it Moot, whether you're a wolf or not. It's a very weird vote to just branch off, at least from my perspective.

Ah shoot I was too slow. Well, here's what I was gonna say, take it or leave it:

Ok so, super speedy and probably terrible explanation, but here we go anyway.

So the main reason I'm suspicious of Dawsinian is that they voted right at the start for arbitrary reasons then vanished. The vanishing even though a lot more material came up to debate is very strange to me, and indicates that they're possibly trying to avid attention. It's possible that they were trying to create a bandwagon on Lau by following up Michi's vote. Since Michi voted in response to Lau, I don't really see that as suspicious as what Dawsinian did.

While that normally wouldn't be the only thing for me to go off of, everyone else who I was suspicious of and would have considered voting for , I am no longer suspicious of enough to stick out my neck and vote for them. Hapi's references strike me as genuine, and my original critique of them making "fluff posts" is sorta invalidated by the fact that they very clearly had a purpose. So generally kinda meh reasoning, but hasty judgements needed to be made, so eh?

I'm sorry this is taking a while Lau, my response was all laid out but my log-in time expired before I posted. I didn't like the way it laid out the process, it just felt needlessly confusing to me (sorry Moot, I'm just struggling to read it). It assumes that the wolves are specifically working together, which is rather bold won'tcha say? But my biggest issue is the sus on TGN, it feels like beating a dead horse at this point to return to that topic, perhaps in an effort to further derail? I feel that Doc laid out a very clear analysis, why ignore it?

It's language like "shocking" that also makes me feel iffy.

I'm just not feeling good about it Moot, whether you're a wolf or not. It's a very weird vote to just branch off, at least from my perspective.

I try to describe my entire thought process in case it's relevant in a future round after I'm gone, since there's no guarantee any of us will be around the next day to elaborate. I think it's odd that you find that off after making a two-sentence post casting suspicion on me and praising someone else who had just voted the same way as you. It came off as random, and I don't know what the point of making such a post without justification was.

And of course the wolves are working together on some kind of strategy, even if they aren't voting for the same person. Has there ever been a game where they haven't?

Uff da. Wasn't confident enough in Daws to cause a majority against him -- just wanted to balance out a three-way tie...

Okay, so Gerrick and Vro are my main scumspects at the moment, because whichever way you cut it, Vro's reasoning was just straight-up whack until Gerrick came onto the scene, and the fact that Gerrick, who is even more logical than me, doesn't see this is a bad look. BSR is not eliminated from the suspect pool, because Daws could very well have been a little vanity wagon he never imagined would gain traction (it certainly surprised me), and could be looking on in bewilderment when he sees what done happened here. There is an argument to be made here that Vro's actions are too wolfy to be a wolf, but my meta has shown that this is typically a weakness of mine to not consider the obvious suspect, and this will get exploited by a sufficiently talented wolf.

I'm super wary of Wintermoot, and quite amusingly, worried that Vro and Moot could be attempting an epic distancing play here. His vote on a dead wagon (well, actually a wagon that didn't even exist until he created it) looks a lot like just placing a very low-risk vote.

Finally, and most amusingly of all, I think Pengu's town. Wolf Pengu doesn't make mistakes of a bussing nature, and would have handled my prodding a lot better. Wolf Pengu doesn't disappear when the going gets tough, either. Town Pengu, on the other hand, very much does.

I have no idea who a potential 4th scum would be, but I don't believe it's Wisch. Sending a Townie over the edge at the last second like that is Wolf suicide of the highest order, but his reasoning for the vote still doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

I am also super confused about something. @Wintermoot, you voted for Sapph, did you not (this is according to Mone's tally closer to the end), and @Vroendal, you pretty much stuck your vote on Gerrick for the whole phase until you switched to Daws, did you not?

@Laurentus: Yes, I voted for Sapphiron here.

I have no idea who a potential 4th scum would be, but I don't believe it's Wisch. Sending a Townie over the edge at the last second like that is Wolf suicide of the highest order, but his reasoning for the vote still doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Just a quick note here, it was a pretty hasty decision. I was hoping to do a close read of the entire thread and come up with my own theories and points, but that obviously didn't happen due to a timing mistake on my part. So I was pretty much just running off the arguments other people had made and, to a certain extent, bandwagoning. Nobody else who has been discussed/argued about really struck me as suspicious, so I just went for it. Hopefully I'll be able to make some more insightful judgements in the future when we have more information.

I am also super confused about something. @Wintermoot, you voted for Sapph, did you not (this is according to Mone's tally closer to the end), and @Vroendal, you pretty much stuck your vote on Gerrick for the whole phase until you switched to Daws, did you not?

That is correct. I voted Gerrick here because at that point I just wanted him to talk and explain himself.

If only to ask "what's up?", Vote: Gerrick

I then switched to Daws because I considered him the most probable option of those likely to be lynched to be a wolf after Gerrick presented his case. I have played my part as town badly, and for that I apologize. To me, all the people talking the most have said nothing particularly suspicious, so my guess, as it had been before I derailed myself, is that the wolves lie among the lurkers.

Okay, then. @Wintermoot, you stated here that Vro voted the same way as you did, when he really did not, and @Vroendal, you never corrected this, even as Moot repeated this strange stance later. What gives with both of you?

Okay, then. @Wintermoot, you stated here that Vro voted the same way as you did, when he really did not, and @Vroendal, you never corrected this, even as Moot repeated this strange stance later. What gives with both of you?

I assume that he was talking about Wischland, no?