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Werewolf XXI: The Beginning of the End
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Gerrick
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  • I mean, Tuesdays and Wednesdays are my weekends, so that's why I have more time. Plus there's actually stuff happening and info to go off since people have finally decided to start voting...

    And if Ruguo still has no reason to trust Wintermoot and Red Mones as being town (yet at the same time don't think Kane is particularly suspicious given the exact same reasoning as Mones), then I don't know how anyone could be confident they aren't a wolf.
    2 people like this post: Imaginative Kane, Red Mones

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    Gerrick
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    Red Mones
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  • Snip
    Mones: Gut says something is wrong here. You're agreeing with everyone, flopping around a bit too much. Gerrick makes a good point about kane not really taking a stand on anything, but you're doing the same. Given what I can remember from playing with you before, you aren't usually this agreeable. It's as if you're trying to come off as a follower. I don't like it, I don't trust it, please form some opinions of your own.
    There's a reason I'm not on anybody's suspicion list. I'm not even low on their lists, I'm not even on them. There is a very good reason for that. We have played together before, which means you should also know that I'm not nearly good enough at this to be playing some super secret 4D chess wolf game where I make everyone think I'm a villager because of my uncertainty. My posts were very much tracking my real-time thought process. Also, you say I'm agreeing with everybody, and I'm not playing consistently with my play style? I initially voted against Aragonn, so you would be correct in that case, but I removed my vote independent of everybody else, re-voted independent of everybody else, and then voted Lau (Hydra did contribute). That's hardly much of anything to go off of. Secondly, I'm not playing consistently, but I've also played werewolf with almost everybody else in this round, most of them, multiple times. At least one person should have noticed, yet nobody thinks of me as suspicious. You hardly defended yourself against Gerrick, rather you moved the suspicion on to me? The second least suspicious person in this game? You're currently at the top of my scum list, and therefore I Vote: Ruguo.
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    Red Mones
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  • You ninja'd me there, Gerrick. :P But yeah, I think we got our wolf.
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    Laurentus
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    Hey, guys. To help the uninitiated, I highly recommend you link to what certain jargon means when you use it. For example, the OMGUS jargon.

    I might just attach an easily accessible link somewhere at some point.
    6 people like this post: taulover, Hydra, Melehan, Imaginative Kane, Gerrick, Red Mones
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    Laurentus
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    Hydra
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  • Sorry I'm late to the conversation. This week has hit me harder than I imagined and will be busy for the time being.

    Here's my thoughts so far:

    Gerrick: Nothing seems off in my book so far. His initial vote for Aragonn was a joke vote (unfortunately), but sticking to it throughout the end despite my pleas is a reasonable move to make given that it really was going to be a game of blind trust to see if he should vote for Aragonn or Laurentus. Either way would've given us more information to work with and that is ultimately what we needed.

    Doc: If I was a wolf, I would've just kept silent and let Aragonn be lynched. Even though it ultimately may lead to the same result (Laurentus getting lynched this round), it allows Laurentus more time to deliberate targets, possible power roles, etc. It doesn't seem like a play Laurentus would make to ensure innocence, especially so last minute.

    Red Mones: Going off train of thought makes sense. For now. The constant flipping makes him too wolfy to be a wolf at this point in my book.

    El Fiji Grande: Interesting analysis to point towards Gerrick. Not sure if I'm buying it just yet. Why weren't you this analytical/active in previous rounds? As I mentioned in my previous post, I don't like your vote for Melehan. Based off Laurentus' past wolf games, this vote seems like something Laurentus would direct to hide a wolf. This vanity wagon strikes as suspicious to me.

    Ruguo: No huge bells are going off for me just yet. @Gerrick Could you elaborate on "Somehow knew either Doc and/or Laurentus was a wolf"? Just like Gerrick, makes sense to stick to the gut to gain information. Not sure if I would've trusted my own reasoning/pleas either.

    Kane: Seems alright for now. As Gerrick stated, seems to be trying not to rock the boat.

    Wintermoot: Seems like a townie. Stuck up for Aragonn and saw through Laurentus' actions which thankfully was the right choice. I can't discount that it may be a ploy to hide among town though.

    HappySpin: As mentioned in my previous post, they've been has been awfully quiet ever since starting their vote for me. As an "experienced player," with all that's happened, a townie would usually contribute more, especially one who wanted to perform a reaction test on me. Why didn't you act on this reaction test? Why didn't you vote differently after all the events between Laurentus and Aragonn unfolded? There's just too many questions.

    Melehan: Voting and reasoning was interesting to follow. However, given Aragonn's accusations, I don't blame you. Then again, I don't really know how you play, and if Ruguo says it's just Melehan being Melehan, I'll let that be for now.

    Thus, I will Vote: El Fiji Grande. Their actions (and timing of actions in the previous round), coupled with burst of activity this round, just seem to be something that Laurentus would direct.
    2 people like this post: Melehan, Imaginative Kane
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    Hydra
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    Gerrick
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  • @Gerrick Could you elaborate on "Somehow knew either Doc and/or Laurentus was a wolf"?
    How have I gone from 'not on the top 3 scumspect' list and 'not making a wtf move' to being your second most desirable target?
    I blame midnight brain. It was out for blood. I have learned I have three modes depending on when I post. Midnight brain has written the majority of my best logic, but has a serious problem with foot-in-mouthing me. 2am brain is good for going completely unfiltered stream of consciousness and had created some of my best ideas. Leaving normal brain to try and mitigate the fallout of those two during the day. So now normal brain will attempt to explain midnight brain's reasoning behind that: I saw the doc-Lau alliance. There were two possibilities: two wolves, or one wolf puling a villager down like I went for last game. So I threw a poke in at Doc to see how he would respond. And respond did he, in an edited post? I kid, of course. But I feel better about him seeing that reaction wasn't the instant 'I'm not a wolf' defensive. Please don't die tonight. I want to include you in my updated list tomorrow.
    The bolding is my emphasis. Ruguo discounted the possibility that they could've both been town. Plus, if they knew that at least one of them was a wolf, why did they vote along with both of them for Aragonn?
    1 person likes this post: Melehan

    Duke of Wintreath and Count of Janth
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    Gerrick
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    Imaginative Kane
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  • The current vote count that I can see seems to be:
    (2) Gerrick: El Fiji Grande, Ruguo
    (2) Ruguo: Gerrick, Red Mones
    (2) El Fiji Grande: Hydra, myself

    I probably won't have time to vote tonight so I will cast a vote now.  I feel like a three way tie may be better than a clear majority vote right now so I will add my vote to El Fiji Grande.

    My own suspicions are as follows:

    I am suspicious of all 3 of these players although they also seem to be putting up pretty good defenses which is why I am fine with leaving it up to RNG in this case.  I don't necessarily see unusual voting as suspicious which lessens my suspicions of Gerrick while he did at least acknowledge that his vote was for more of a joke reason but I still have some sneaking suspicion in the back of my head of you (a gut feeling really).

    Ruguo: This is a gut feeling suspicion that I am actually slightly more suspicious of you than Gerrick even though I can't think of many reasons to be suspicious of you at the moment.

    Red Mones: Yes you have been switching your votes which normally doesn't make you all that suspicious in my view; at least you are more active in this game than some of the others I have seen you playing in.  You are suspicious to me, because even though you are far more active than in the other game, this is starting to remind me of that Game of Thrones Werewolf when you were a werewolf at the wall.  I will have to see more to know whether or not you are that suspicious which is also part of the reason I am not voting to lynch you right now.

    El Fiji Grande: While I haven't been very active either, your inactivity and subsequent activity are edging on my gut feeling suspicions.  Maybe over the weekend, I will have a more coherent reasoning behind voting for you aside from trusting the RNG system.

    HappySpin: I have the same reasons that others have listed to be suspicious of you.

    Players I frankly have no idea about in terms of suspicion or I am sure are on the town's side:
    Wintermoot
    Melehan
    Doc
    Hydra

    Also it would be nice to see what @Doc has to say about everything that is being said and happening.
    2 people like this post: Melehan, Red Mones
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    Let us not repeat the mistakes of history.

    Now tell me.  What do you see?
    Imaginative Kane
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    Red Mones
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    HappySpin
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  • Hm, it seems everyone is suspicious of me simply because I've been quiet - don't worry, I am here, and ever a part of the game. I agree with much of y'all's assessment, but not all of them.

    My top suspicions list:

    Kane - One common strategy I often see when playing Werewolf is playing very vanilla, not trying to offend/accuse anyone; it actually works quite well a lot of the time. Kane has managed to vote for no one except himself.

    Ruguo - Voted for Aragonn for "information" -- I agree Aragonn was suspicious (although I didn't vote for him), but claiming to vote for him for "information" is a bit suspicious to me.

    El Fiji Grade - Can't quite say why I suspect this player, but my gut tells me there is something sinister. My brain seems torn between three characters who seem to contradict one another, and I think one of them is the wolf.

    Doc - Doc has been very defensive this entire game, and he keeps talking about how he thinks he's "gonna be lynched" -- This is a werewolf move in my opinion: Make it seem like you're confused and being targeted, and people will assume you are innocent.

    I have a few other suspicions, but these are my mains ones.

    However, I'm gonna have to Vote: Ruguo. Voting for Aragonn is a indicator for werewolf IMO, and his general playing strategy reminds me of my own werewolf strategy lol  :D

    I'm honestly open to having my vote influenced, looking forward to hearing back from y'all.

    (P.S. Sorry I've been busy, college stuff is fun)
    3 people like this post: Red Mones, Melehan, Imaginative Kane
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    Doc
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  • Right now, my main suspicions are Doc and Gerrick.
    Well, I now know one thing for certain: Moot is definitely not the Seer, since he's still swinging on me. If he was the Seer, and genuinely this suspicious of me, he'd have scanned me and found me innocent. So clearly a bad read on my part.
    Moot hasn't voted on anything, so I'm now doubly confident he's not part of a Seer Squad votebloc - unless he's trying to sneak it in at the last second.
    Other non-voters: me, Melehan, Fiji, and HappySpin. I suspect everyone's aware there's gonna be a lynch today, regardless of it only being 2:2:2 since over 50% of votes are in. I also suspect Fiji is aware and will vote to save himself, so if I want to keep it to RNGesus (big if), I should vote Fiji, since otherwise whoever I vote for will probably pick up a 4th vote just to make things certain (voting someone else is, at this point, dumb).
    Well, time to revisit past analysis.
    I think Laurentus, Gerrick, and Ruguo are our wolves; I think Wintermoot is the Seer; I think he's contacted Hydra; I think Mones, me, Aragonn, Fiji, and HappySpin are uncontacted villagers, and I think Kane and Melehan are our Defenders. (Note for posterity, future me: I'm pretty much making up the defender list, I have no actual idea).
    Well, for one, I clearly fucked up one of the defenders, since it was Aragonn. On balance, I'm going to assume it's Melehan since in my experience they're much more active in a power role; Kane .
    How neat. Two of my scumspects are on the firing line, and interestingly, neither of them seems to have found it necessary to defend themselves against my earlier accusations.
    I figure on Gerrick being more likely.

    Vote: Gerrick.
    3 people like this post: Imaginative Kane, Red Mones, Melehan
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    Melehan
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  • *eyeballs the target being painted on me*

    Something I find interesting is how Hydra has at this point been basically cleared as town by Ruguo, and everyone seems to be buying into it. This makes me think that either both of them are part of the Seer Squad, or Ruguo at the least is a wolf since, if Hydra were to die tonight, that would give Ruguo further credibility as town since they appear to be working with Hydra. Especially considering that Ruguo was the one who pointed out Hydra as a target earlier.

    But since there's a decent possibility Ruguo is part of the Seer Squad, I'm thinking lynching Ruguo for information is a bit too risky right now, especially since the town is down a Defender and the Seer is a lot more vulnerable. Losing the Seer and other members of the Squad will only hurt the town at this point.

    So, assuming Ruguo is a wolf, that still leaves a second wolf to hunt down. Currently, I'm not suspicious enough about anyone else to start a vanity wagon, which leaves me lynching between Gerrick and Fiji. Of those teo, Gerrick is the only one who has consistently voted not himself, which makes him seems less suspicious to me, so I'm casting my vote for El Fiji Grande.

    I do find it interesting that Kane and Moot have managed to largely dodge suspicion by being so quiet while HappySpin has been named suspicious for essentially doing the same.
    1 person likes this post: Imaginative Kane
    « Last Edit: March 12, 2020, 02:02:26 PM by Melehan »
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    HappySpin
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  • I do find it interesting that Kane and Moot have managed to largely dodge suspicion by being so quiet while HappySpin has been named suspicious for essentially doing the same.

    I also find this quote interesting, haha.  :P :))
    1 person likes this post: Imaginative Kane
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    Wintermoot
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  • I try to make time for Werewolf, but I'm never going to have time for more than a post or two a day. I try to at least summarize where I'm at when I do post, though.

    What I do find interesting is that there's been some harping on Red Mones switching votes last round, while Doc has been given a pass for doing much the same thing. Fiji says the odds of the false-flag strategy paying off would be low while completely dismissing any suspicion of Doc and in the process proving why it would be a good move. And Doc's whole spiel about me not being Seer cause I'm suspicious of him is just blatantly overacted and exaggerated. Just as overacted and obvious as his rushing to take all the credit for lynching Laurentus proclaiming his innocence for the rest of the game completely afterwards. It's something right out of the William Shatner School of Acting.

    And you know, maybe the Doc-Laurentus alliance wasn't so far-fetched after all. They can say it formed before the game even started, but wouldn't they know they were on the same team once the game started? What a convenient thing they could happen to point to to allay suspicion. And let's not forget, Doc was the one who first picked out Aragonn last round. Laurentus simply drove it home.

    But obviously I'm not going to get a vote on Doc this round, because the votes are already elsewhere. So the question is who is most likely to be his remaining accomplice? I still find Gerrick to be suspicious, but I'm now finding Fiji more suspicious because of his double standard with Doc and Red Mones. Dismissing the fact in the case of one, but throwing shade at the other for much the same thing.

    Vote: El Fiji Grande
    3 people like this post: Melehan, Red Mones, Imaginative Kane


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