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I was asleep for all of that, but wow, what a reversal!

I would like to note that I'm not a Defender. I also have different suspicions about who the Seer might be, but we'll have to see if they pan out.

Also, *squints at those edits*.

I'd like to note that I read Doc's message before it was edited, and all that changed was a bit more detail put in.

Laurentus was in fact a Werewolf!

the fucking reaaaaaaaads

Also, *squints at those edits*.

Yeah, making edits like that is, on the one hand, not brilliant, but in my defense I'd really like to point out that, given our current info that Laurentus was scum, if we also assume I'm scum, that means there's a 1/10 chance Aragonn is also scum (9 non-scum roles and 1 wolf role still being alive). If that were the case, I gave up a has-basically-already-happened 90% chance to kill a non-scum in favor of killing my fellow scum in order to make the most insane bus play of all time.
And this ignores the reality that Aragonn's likelihood of being scum is rather lower than 90%, given exactly how hard Laurentus, now proven to be scum, went in on him.
I think 'Doc is not scum' can just be assumed at this point considering the immensity of that flip, regardless of how many times I edit posts for the rest of this game.

(I'm probably going to die tonight, that was honestly kinda too huge)

I think 'Doc is not scum' can just be assumed at this point considering the immensity of that flip, regardless of how many times I edit posts for the rest of this game.

Not so fast! It's entirely possible that you're a wolf who flipped and threw Laurentus under the bus to save yourself from further scrutiny. And now you're quick to say that we should do just that...

How have I gone from 'not on the top 3 scumspect' list and 'not making a wtf move' to being your second most desirable target?

I blame midnight brain. It was out for blood. I have learned I have three modes depending on when I post. Midnight brain has written the majority of my best logic, but has a serious problem with foot-in-mouthing me. 2am brain is good for going completely unfiltered stream of consciousness and had created some of my best ideas. Leaving normal brain to try and mitigate the fallout of those two during the day. So now normal brain will attempt to explain midnight brain's reasoning behind that: I saw the doc-Lau alliance. There were two possibilities: two wolves, or one wolf puling a villager down like I went for last game. So I threw a poke in at Doc to see how he would respond. And respond did he, in an edited post? I kid, of course. But I feel better about him seeing that reaction wasn't the instant 'I'm not a wolf' defensive. Please don't die tonight. I want to include you in my updated list tomorrow.

Again, I'd like to reiterate:
If we assume I'm a wolf, and Lau is a wolf, that means that of the 10 other players, there is a 1/10 chance that each of them is a wolf.
This means I flipped from a sure-thing lynch of someone who had a 1/10 chance of being a wolf (to the extent that Hydra, Ruguo, Gerrick, and Aragonn himself were all acting as if it had basically already happened), to a lynch of someone who was definitely a wolf.

Mathematically, that's incredibly stupid, because that call changes the makeup of the game from 3/10 wolves/total to 2/10 tomorrow (assuming the wolves successfully night-kill).
3/10 wolves means they're in a much stronger position to drive a mislynch like we most likely almost saw during this day phase; they only need 2 other players to wagon with them, and victory is mathematically possible by Day 5.
2/10 wolves weakens their ability to drive a mislynch, and much more crucially, victory is delayed by at least one full day, which is also very bad for them since the Seer role and both defender roles are still in play, meaning it's much more likely their victory is delayed to at least Day 7.

If I was a wolf, I'm gambling a 1-2 day delayed victory with less margin for error, meaning more time to accrue information for all parties (which is increasingly bad for wolves) on the off-chance that I won't just be scanned by the Seer after making a bus play of such insane magnitude.

Frankly the only reason I could see that you would think I'm still a wolf is that you're totally convinced that "The Alliance" was a 100% for reals bona-fide alliance, instead of being the 'Lau and Doc won't kill each other till at least Day 3' that it was. And I'm not sure how it's possible for me to point out the latter was the case in any more convincing ways short of either us winning the game together, or me winding up dead and Pengu saying 'Doc was in fact a villager' upon revealing my demise.

I don't know, Doc, something crazy like this I wouldn't put past you and Laurentus. If Aragonn was lynched and turned out to be town, wolves would have likely gotten their night kill, and Lau would be lynched the next day. You'd be saving Lau one more day, which doesn't matter because how many wolves there are doesn't affect the chances of getting your kill, but now Doc has a rock solid defense. Think of it this way: By night 4, they wolves have 2 wolves left and they got their night kill, or night 4, wolves got their night 3 kill, but Doc has a solid defense.

Scenario 1: Day 3, Aragonn lynched -> Night 3, Wolves likely get their kill -> Day 4, Laurentus gets lynched -> end result (night 4), 2 wolves

Scenario 2: Day 3, Doc ensures Laurentus gets lynched -> Night 3, wolves likely get their kill -> Day 4, -> end result (night 4), 2 wolves, Doc has a great defense

You waited last minute to vote Doc. You were the deciding vote. You may have realized what was happening, people saw through Laurentus and he had lost his usefulness as a wolf. I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt, but this is the kind of play I would expect from you Doc.

Didn't mean for that emoticon to be there.

Damn, considering all this flak I'm catching, maybe I'll survive the night after all only to wind up lynched tomorrow...

Well that's not much of a defense... Like I said I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Let's see what happens tonight.

Well that's not much of a defense... Like I said I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt. Let's see what happens tonight.

Wasn't meant to be a defense, just slightly aggrieved self-pity. I genuinely figured I'd literally be the safest bet on the planet right now, and being told I'm still apparently hella suspicious, not in spite of but because of what I thought was a major play-of-the-game moment, is kinda grating on me.
Which, y'know, not a knock on you guys or anything, suspicion is the name of the game, but man, it's driving me kinda crazy.

This night phase feels like it's taking an eternity. The anticipation and anxiety is real.

I mean, it's longer than normal night phases, that's probably why.  :p

Anyways I'm going to go ahead and end it since everyone has posted.

This night, there was yet another murder.

Aragonn, a Defender was killed by the Werewolves (I guess you could say the anticipation was killing him).

Time for another Day Phase!

So now the good guys are down a power role.  Hopefully you guys can recover from this.  Now it's time to discuss and vote and hopefully catch another wolf!

This Day Phase will end on 3/12/2020 at 12:30PM PST, or roughly48 hours from this post.

Well, that explains a lot. So since defenders know who each other are, we need to look at who was pushing hard against the aragonn lynch to find the other one. I'm thinking Hydra. Which means I gotta go revise my list again.