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sorry for double post but as Tau pointed out, editing is often perceived as a sign of guilt

Anyway - I reread the rules on the Others, and I'm now somewhat concerned. So Tau, rules clarification: when you said

The wights help them kill more efficiently, allowing the Others to kill two people each night after killing three people total.

Does that include people lynched, or only those killed at night?
If the former, I'm almost more inclined to vote no lynch unless we're reasonably sure, because if we do lynch someone they can start killing 2 people at night tomorrow, and there will definitely be two, and possibly even three Others by that point. That said, it's also sort of kicking the can down the road, since we definitely need to decide who is an Other and lynch them eventually...
This concern is largely predicated on a worry that we may lynch the wrong guy today, which, if lynchings counted to Wights, would mean that by the start of Day 4, we would have lost 5 Brothers (and, I guess, counting Elb now, a Sister), whereas if we don't lynch at all, by the start of Day 4 we would only have lost 3.

Does that include people lynched, or only those killed at night?

The latter.

Alright, cool. Still not entirely sure, but since that threat is gone I feel better about having committed to that vote.

Ser Barristan Selmy barges into the common room, already frustrated with the current situation surrounding the murder. He makes his way in a great stride over to Jon Arryn and Yoren having their little scheming-session over by the base of the high table.

He makes an effort to rudely interrupt the two, "Enough with all your whispering. Could you even truly believe a Ser of my stature would put his sword through an oathkeeper's back? Well then, Arryn, if you are done with your games then I suggest we actually go about catching this murderer. If we are right to assume there were already in Castle Black, then we best focus on who we knew would have access to those catwalks. That means either Ser Aron Santagar or myself." Selmy contemplates before continuing, "or either of you two. I will entertain one last game of yours Arryn, but if this leads nowhere I am coming straight for your head."


I'll play along, but if we were to assume that there were two Others from the start then I see no logical reason for it not to be in the Other's favour to be the ones scheming for the last five posts in this chat with no one else participating.

I'm definitely going to be voting for one of you two next if it isn't Charles (Ser Aron Santagar), and just so people know: if I get killed during the night-phase it's 100% one of these two if not both.

Anyway, accuse: Charles because I was the only other alternatively you two discussed

Well, I mean, if you put it like that, then if there is another Other among the newly arrived people, he'd be a complete idiot not to kill you.

If you're gonna play the noble self-sacrificing hero, then take a lesson from Colberius X, and his magnificent Pyrrhic victory against me in Werewolf VI: Until Dawn.

Hell, even if I am an Other, that would just be too tempting a target to pass up.

Well, mathematically speaking, he'd be right in that if he was killed in the night phase, and we lynch Charles as seems would be expected now with 3 of 6 votes, then there would only be 2 of the starting 5 left, and it really would be guaranteed to be one of us, since we know for a fact that at least 1 of the 5 of us is an Other.
Which then implies that the Others have a strong incentive to keep as many of the first 5 as possible alive, actually, because the longer they can keep the first Other alive, the longer we're going to fixate on the increasing mathematical probability that we'll find the first one, while they're merrily killing the rest.

OK, I guess I have some explaining to do. First of all, I’m not evil. I guess you all think that I am, because I didn’t switch my vote to vote lynch. I should not have done this. Sorry.

I guess I originally voted for Sapphiron because he was being unnecessarily aggressive from the start. Also because he was a Lannister in King’s Landing. I don’t know if that matters here, I’m not familiar with the source material.

Anyway, I thought it would be dishonourable and cowardly to change my vote to ‘no lynch’. I guess I invested too much into the semi-RP we have here, instead of focusing on the game mechanics. Once again, I’m sorry I voted to lynch him. I hope you’ll give me a second chance.

I don’t know who the werewolf is. I don’t know what the werewolf is going to do next. I don’t even know what we’re supposed to call the werewolf in this world. The Other? The Wight? The Wall?

We should gather more information. I’d happily follow someone else’s decision if they back it up with logic and argument. I’m a Werewolf n00b so I won’t make a decision. Last time I made a rash decision, an innocent was killed.

It's nothing personal. Our reasoning is going to be extremely flawed at the start. Your death does serve a purpose, though. If you're innocent, then it narrows the suspect list to two, in my mind. It's a bit of Hunger Games situation. We'll team up from time to time, but only up to a point. For us starting five, death is almost assured.

As I said to PP, I hope that you'll give this game another chance in the future, if you do end up being lynched.

But the best way to "clear your name" is to give us a compelling alternative to vote for. You pretty much have three options: me, Doc and PP. If you could list things we've done or said that were suspicious, then you might give us new data to work with.

Let's get a timeline of the events leading up to Sapphiron's death.

1. Sapphiron randomly accused PP.
2. I try and balance the tables by accusing Sapphiron.
3. Laurentus follows Sapphiron and accuses PP.
4. Doc arrives.
5. Doc accuses Sapphiron to keep PP safe, and out of suspicion for Sapphiron.
6. Sapphiron reveals he is probably an important role.
7. PP accuses Saph out of retaliation.
8. Doc says we should vote no lynch.
9. Laurentus votes no lynch.
10. Doc and Saph vote no lynch.
11. Nobody is lynched.

12. The Werewolf kills Saph.
13. Elb and Gerrick arrive.

Now, let's see who could be the Werewolf, and if their logic would make sense.

Me: Between 11 and 12, I have to decide who to kill. I need to try and pick someone who wouldn't draw suspicion to me. I'm not stupid, I'm not going to pick Saph. I was the first to accuse him, and refused to back down. If I killed him, I knew that the blame would fall on me. Therefore, I wouldn't kill him, and so I can't be the Werewolf. A much better target for me would be Doc, particularly PP, or Laurentus. Saph was pretty much the worst possible target for me at that stage of the game. I am not the Werewolf.

Doc: He argued for a no lynch. This might have been to protect himself from a lynching, or it might be genuine. It's very hard to tell. If he is the Werewolf, Saph would be a pretty good target for him, but I'm not sure he is. He seems genuine, and he's the recruiter. I'm pretty sure Doc isn't the Werewolf.

PP: Similar to me, Saph would be a pretty bad target for PP to pick. He would get a lot more out of murdering me, Doc, or Laurentus, in order to shift the blame onto someone else. There's virtually no chance he'd pick Saph, as he would know the blame would fall on him. PP is probably not the Werewolf.

Laurentus: Between 11 and 12, if he was the Werewolf, he had to decide who to kill. He wouldn't kill me or PP, because that shifts all the blame immediately onto him or Doc. If he kills Doc, or Saph, that is more likely to shift the blame away from himself. Out of the two, Saph is a more attractive target than Doc. Both PP and I accused Saph straight away, meaning we would get the blame. Laurentus was the first to publicly jump to his side, so Laurentus wouldn't be suspected. This makes Saph the perfect target for Laurentus. Laurentus had been playing us the whole time. It's not a very complex tactic. It's simply, "Make yourself look like Saph's ally, so when he is killed, noone will suspect you."  Add to that the fact that he immediately jumped onto Doc's suggestion for a no lynch. This means that:

a) he realised a no lynch vote reduced the chances of him getting lynched.
b) A no lynch vote would reduce the chances of PP getting lynched. Laurentus wanted PP to stay alive at first, because he was one of Laurentus' scapegoats, along with me, after the Werewolf executed Sapphiron.

This means Laurentus is the most likely to be the Werewolf out of anyone.

If I were the Werewolf, I wouldn't have any reason to choose Sapphiron as a target. Much juicier targets would have existed in the forms of PP and others. I cannot be the Werewolf.

Accuse: Laurentus

And yet it's no secret that Sapphiron is pretty much my arch-nemesis in Werewolf. The moment I kill him, all the older players' eyebrows would rise. While yes, I have killed Sapph in the past, even knowing it would draw suspicion on me, that was as an immortal character, meaning I could take the risk.

Why would a no-lynch vote reduce my odds of getting lynched?

And yet it's no secret that Sapphiron is pretty much my arch-nemesis in Werewolf. The moment I kill him, all the older players' eyebrows would rise. Why would a no-lynch vote reduce my odds of getting lynched?

1. Yes, but here we are, with Sapphiron dead, and the majority of the blame going to someone else. You've played your cards very well, if you are the Werewolf.

2. Because if you're able to convince others that a no lynch vote is the right, middle way, they're not going to vote for you. It immediately turns the attention away from yourself. I notice that you were the first to vote no lynch, suggesting that you saw a fantastic way to stay alive for the first go at least.

None of this changes the fact that Sapphiron was the best target for you, and a bad target for the others.

By that logic, I could have stuck to my vote of PP, let you all lynch Sapph, kill Doc during the night, and then turn the new players against you, as either way, my two greatest threats would be gone. Your reasoning is getting increasingly dodgy. There's also a bit of circular logic if you list reasons you wouldn't kill Sapph, but when I do the same, you just deflect them with 'well, here we are, though.' That sword cuts both ways, man.

The fact that I haven't yet been accused before now is quite funny, as I would have expected Gerrick to pick right up on the fact that Sapph is dead. All I can guess is that he's busy, or he's reasoning along similar lines to me.

And yes, if we go by story, Doc should be the least suspicious, but story and game mechanics don't mix. It could be any one of us. I'm keeping Doc alive for now since he's one of the power players, and would be very beneficial to have around if not an Other. That will all change soon if you two don't end up being Others.

Yeah, Charles' defense posts are really suspicious with how many times he reiterates that he isn't and can't be the Werewolf -- though he is new, so it could just be that. Besides, Elbbsas may not vote within the next hour and we don't know how she'd vote anyway, so I couldn't save him even if I wanted to (but since he's just as likely as Laurentus to be the Other, it makes that decision easier).

Accuse: Charles