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On the other hand, the wolf might be intentionally targeting Hyperians to raise a false flag. So that would increase the pool of likely wolves to citizens who've been here long enough to realize how to utilize this potential (or simply looked and saw that we were all in the same familial house).

Laurentus, I must admit, your last post yesterday gave me some pause. This does not mean I no longer suspect you, just not as strongly as before.

Vote: Eject taulover

That's how my vote's gonna stay until I see you explain why exactly you voted Sapphiron and not Laurentus. I'd also like to see who you think the koopas are now.

Actually, I would like to see an updated list from everyone so far as to who they think is a koopa (at least one suspect) and why. @Wintermoot @aternox @Laurentus 

Pengu: Am I correct in thinking one of the players who started as a normal toad has now become a koopa, Iggy?

Aragonn's death has taken away my biggest suspect. I can't make the statement that one person who voted for Sapph is a wolf, but that would be a likely thing if we're dealing with a fairly experienced player, or at least one who went to the trouble of reading the previous games and seeing that Sapph is one of the strongest players.

I don't have a clear suspect at this time, though. Everyone is a suspect.

Actually, I would like to see an updated list from everyone so far as to who they think is a koopa (at least one suspect) and why. @Wintermoot @aternox @Laurentus

I continue to believe that Laurentus is the most likely Koopa, for all the reasons I posted yesterday in addition to the fact that the person he pushed so hard to have removed yesterday turned out to be Mario. taulover and aternox also voted for Sapphiron, and that makes them suspect, but I'm not sure if either of them are Koopas or if they just sold into Laurentus' argument. Your own summary selection of taulover is a little odd, too, but given that you didn't join in on the Sapphiron train I think you're somewhat less suspect.

Really, it could still be anyone though...we have plenty of time left. I think I'm going to wait and see what happens before I vote, seeing as this is win or lose. =/

Edit: Actually, why taulover? What are your reasons for selecting him right out the gate?

I was actually hesitant to say this, in case a wolf buys into my reasoning and targets the person during the night phase, but I don't believe Aaron is likely to be a wolf. I think he could be our other defender, since it would make sense for him to oppose me so vehemently when I voted for Sapph in the previous day phase if he is the other defender and was thus automatically aware of her identity.

It could similarly be anyone who didn't jump on the Sapphiron bandwagon.

We really need our damn seer by now.

Laurentus, I must admit, your last post yesterday gave me some pause. This does not mean I no longer suspect you, just not as strongly as before.

Vote: Eject taulover

That's how my vote's gonna stay until I see you explain why exactly you voted Sapphiron and not Laurentus. I'd also like to see who you think the koopas are now.

Actually, I would like to see an updated list from everyone so far as to who they think is a koopa (at least one suspect) and why. @Wintermoot @aternox @Laurentus 

Pengu: Am I correct in thinking one of the players who started as a normal toad has now become a koopa, Iggy?

Correct.  Since Anneliese, the Koopaling known as Ludwig Von Koopa was ejected due to inactivity, a toad was selected at random and converted into a new Koopaling, Iggy.

Hmm. Well, that means that the Koopa could be anyone, regardless of previous behavior.

In any case, here are my thoughts on the situation:

Laurentus's points make much sense, and so I will first look at the two Hyperians. First, myself. As I said previously, I actually posted my vote after the deadline; I was rather rushed, and still had about one hundred math problems left. As such, I just made a quick decision.

The next Hyperian on the list, of course, is Laurentus. Both Wintermoot and Aaron have pointed out that he's acted strangely, including when compared to previous behavior. It is also likely that he semi-implicated himself with the "Hyperian" logic as a sort of reverse psychology to deflect votes away from him, but even a Toad would try to do that to survive.

Next, are the people who may have intentionally targeted Aragonn and Colby to raise a false flag. This, essentially, is everyone else, so there's not much point in looking into that. In any case, I think Wintermoot, who has already raised suspicion from not getting killed the first night, would be most suspect in this regard, though aternox or Aaron probably could have also done this, intentionally or not.

As for Aaron, Laurentus seems to have convincingly argued that Aaron is another defender. Then of course, this may not be the case; it is possible, for example, that Aaron is the new Koopa (and, again, asked the question to deflect suspicion), and is now working together with Bowser, which, in this hypothetical scenario, would be likely Laurentus.

Finally, aternox. IIRC from previous games, his behavior, ie not talking that much, but still contributing somewhat, is normal, but my memory may be incorrect.

Well, there's my thinking. In any case, we still have over a day to choose the suspected wolf.

Note: I forgot to say this, but I suspected Wintermoot in the "false flag" idea mostly because he's the Monarch and therefore may have more of an idea of who's who.

Sorry for the double post.

Having a villager turn into a wolf makes things a touch tricky, as it means we can't use past history to catch that person. We can still use the history of the other wolf to catch them, and now we know who their partner is we have something solid to go off.

The interesting things I noted with regard to Anneliese being a wolf (and an inactive one) are:

Day 1:
Wintermoot suggests lynching someone who isn't active (though doesn't vote for Anneliese)
Laurentus mentions he doesn't like lynching inactive people. To be fair, I agree with his point so it doesn't necessarily mean he is trying to ward off attention to his partner.

Day 2:
Laurentus discounts Anneliese or Mlfailor as being the wolves.
Aragonn agrees with the above point.
'Ah, and absenteeism is the best indicator of innocence?' from Aaron, though with respect to me rather than Anneliese.
Aaron suggests the two wolves may include an inactive player.

Based off that, I'd lean slightly towards Wintermoot and Aaron not being bad guys. Bringing attention to inactive players would be a bit risky for a wolf when their partner was one of the two.

Laurentus discounted Anneliese from being a wolf entirely, and then she turned out to be one. I'm not sure on this one, the first day's comment could have been trying to guide people away from his partner, but then going all in the next day seemed a bit strong for a wolf. If he was a wolf, he would know that it is likely his partner would be revealed for inactivity at the end of the day and it would make sense for him to voice at least a slight suspicion.

I didn't notice Taulover mentioning inactive players at all. I think that makes it a tad hard to make a judgement on him, he could just as easily be a wolf laying low in respect to their inactive partner as he could be an innocent villager.

At the moment, I would lean towards either Laurentus or Taulover being Anneliese's original partner.

The new wolf could be anyone really, I'm not really sure I have enough to go on there until the original wolf is either caught or strongly believed to be specific person.

I don't have a clear suspect at this time, though. Everyone is a suspect.

You have had more material since you made this post. Any changes?

Edit: Actually, why taulover? What are your reasons for selecting him right out the gate?

Thanks for asking. Not only was it a test to see who would ask me about it directly (rather than the more passive "oh that was odd of you"), I wanted to see how it affected tau. Interestingly, he frames his post around going through every single person and describing them to various levels of suspicion, yet I'm finding it difficult to pinpoint his main suspect(s), just hypotheticals.

Everyone's suspects:

Wintermoot: Laurentus > aternox + taulover > Aaron
Laurentus: Everyone > Aaron
taulover: Wintermoot + Laurentus > everyone
aternox: Laurentus + taulover > Wintermoot + Aaron

Correct me if I'm wrong.

I think it's important to consider our new information: there was only one active koopa for the entirety of the last phase. I was mostly working on the assumption both koopas were active. Laurentus saying that he's definitely ruled out the inactives because of the dual functions still being used, whilst incorrect, has earned some credit from me for its apparent sincerity. Anyway, because one koopa was alive it means he was acting pretty much like a solo koopa would: going along with everything else and being opportunistic. In this sense I mean those who were on the periphery during the phase: anyone that wasn't myself or Laurentus. Discounting the dead, obviously, this leaves aternox, tau and Wintermoot.

From these, tau seems the worst offender. Wintermoot posted some reasoning which looked  reasonable (pardon the wording) and fairly transparent. aternox posted something and whilst I disagree with the conclusion he reached, he did something. Tau, meanwhile, posted little to nothing with his vote - not only that, he made a chance death certain at that point. To this point we still lack an explanation for why tau voted Sapph and not Laurentus. "Just made a quick decision" doesn't cut it for me. The argument that tau would've paid more attention if he was a koopa (by extension, be here before end of phase) doesn't hold since the counter is easily the RL he himself cites.

Basically, tau did nothing of substance last phase and the lack of care with his vote indicated he'd be happy either way (or wanted to save Laurentus), this phase he has failed to answer why exactly Sapph over Laurentus, and also who his main suspects are, giving something very vague instead.

There is also the NH-killer theory which has been going back and forth between tau and Laurentus. I agree with them in that essentially, one of the two wolves is definitely in tau and Laurentus.

Speaking of Laurentus, I still suspect him for the same reasons as the last phase, but because of his last few posts I feel there's a stronger chance he's a victim of circumstance. Having said that, even if he was innocent before, he could no longer be.

Meanwhile, I'm still trying to figure out why Aragonn was chosen. Maybe I'm being vain but I think me saying I've got a town read on him might have had something to do with it. The decision not to kill me at the same time might mean they expected me to keep going after Laurentus this phase, which is an awkward thought (since it implies Laurentus wasn't a koopa).

At this point I'm good to eject tau today, and so my vote will stay there, but I'm also willing to eject Laurentus if people think that's a better lynch. Wintermoot has seemed like a good player throughout this game. His vote for Laurentus yesterday, as mentioned, seemed okay and his behaviour today seems townish. aternox I'm simply not sure at this point. His post in the last phase in which he voted Saphh I still protest was off because from his point of view Laurentus was almost certainly the better vote. His most recent post however seems better.

Hmm. This koopa conversion is difficult to deal with. One player decided to kill Colberius, and that player with another then decided Aragonn. I'll be rereading the thread and make another post tomorrow but I suspect I will stand by what I said about wanting to eject tau or Laurentus today.

I still don't have much of an idea. Tau usually keeps rather quiet, so I haven't picked up any irregular behaviour from him. The only thing I have to go on with him is the Hyperian thing, and to be honest, it is a little obvious.

We also have to consider that it may even be bullshit, since Aragonn and Colby were both good players too, and could be killed for multiple reasons that have nothing to do being Hyperians. Besides, 2 Hyperian deaths, even consecutively, are easy to chalk up to coincidence, because of such a small statistical sample.

Something we should worry about, though: if we go after King Koopa, and even guess him correctly, he won't be lynched, and the two Koopas can just kill anyone during the night to win.

Therefore we have to try and lynch this new Iggy character, which means we'll essentially have to go on a witch hunt, something I hate.

Something we should worry about, though: if we go after King Koopa, and even guess him correctly, he won't be lynched, and the two Koopas can just kill anyone during the night to win.

Actually, you just have to vote the wrong person since it's down to 5 players.  No pressure or anything, and I'll even give extra time this phase to give everyone a good chance to theorize and lay it out, since it's officially crunch time.

We'll say instead of Friday at 6:30PM, we can end it on Saturday at 6:30PM PST, and that'll give you guys more time to figure out what you want to do.  And it'll make it that much more suspenseful.   

Actually, my order was more of  Laurentus > (but only slightly) everyone > (slightly again) aternox.

And as Laurentus pointed out, if we rely on past behavior, we're essentially screwed, so we'll need to look at the more recent posts.

Aaron and Laurentus suddenly supporting each other after previously opposing each other seems somewhat suspicious.

Actually, my order was more of  Laurentus > (but only slightly) everyone > (slightly again) aternox.

And as Laurentus pointed out, if we rely on past behavior, we're essentially screwed, so we'll need to look at the more recent posts.

Aaron and Laurentus suddenly supporting each other after previously opposing each other seems somewhat suspicious.

This isn't typical tau behaviour anymore.

1. You're not answering the question that Aaron is putting to you (why you chose Sapph over me). Are you avoiding the question? It would seem so.

I accept that I'm still suspicious, but I must ask why I would hurt my own cause if I were a Koopa by pointing out that looking for King Koopa would be pretty useless? Especially (as you seem to be implying) if I want to hide the newest addition to the Koopa clan's identity, I'd remain completely silent on that point, since I'd realise that pointing that out could point to Aaron as a new Koopa since we no longer oppose each other so vehemently. I've pretty much been suspicious from the start, so if I am a Koopa, I'd be King Koopa, making Aaron this Iggy character.

2. Second paragraph is self-explanatory and true.

3. Why would Aaron even ask the question of whether we're dealing with a new Koopa, if he could have remained silent and we could easily have remained unnoticed as a Koopa pair?

I don't know what his reasons are for not suspecting me as much as he did previously, but it stands to reason that a defender would do everything in his power to ensure his partner's survival, making his insistence that I was the most suspicious (even though I was only slightly more suspicious) interesting, because if he were a defender, he'd know for certain that Sapph was also one, and would protect him to the end.

I'm beginning to suspect you all the more, tau. Usually, you would consider these things I've pointed out.

I'd in fact have been ready to vote for you if I weren't so afraid that you could be King Koopa, instead of Iggy.

Oh, that reminds me, @Pengu. Are we already screwed? Because even if we guess Iggy correctly and he gets ejected, we'd probably still lose someone during the night phase, meaning we'd be reduced to a 2:1 good/bad ratio, and if we then guess King Koopa's identity correctly, he would survive and kill another person, winning the game.

Am I correct in saying our only hope would be if our defender performs some world class defending?

Oh, <expletive>. I thought that the koopa-before-King rule applied only to Ludwig.

Yep, we're definitely <expletive>'d. Bigger post coming along later in the day, this is just part of my obligatory check-in in Wintreath.