View Topic

I first want to see some activity myself before delving into reasons for being a wolf or not.

And no, absenteeism isn't a good indication of innocence, but aternox was inactive for so long that he couldn't have done anything in the night phase, thereby removing him from my suspect list for the time being. He also hasn't played with Colby that often.

I first want to see some activity myself before delving into reasons for being a wolf or not.

And no, absenteeism isn't a good indication of innocence, but aternox was inactive for so long that he couldn't have done anything in the night phase, thereby removing him from my suspect list for the time being. He also hasn't played with Colby that often.

This may just be me misunderstanding, but I can't get my head round this.

Are you referring to the 'last online' feature available on everyone's profiles? In that case, aternox's profile says he was last online 18 hours ago. This would mean he was only 2 hours before Pengu called the end of the night phase. Have I missed something here?

To be honest, after Colby got killed off in WW IV, I told him my role as Black Knight in our IRC. I don't remember exactly what he said, but it was something along the lines of "They're all screwed." And he was right.

Hmm, it seems I have my facts wrong. I just remember checking regularly for people who were online during the night phase.

Hmm, it seems I have my facts wrong. I just remember checking regularly for people who were online during the night phase.

I request you share all other information you've gathered for each person during the night, whether on activity or otherwise.

Not much to tell. I only checked activity, as it was activity that betrayed Sauron in WW III. Everyone, except those who are about to get lynched for inactivity, were active at some point while I observed during the night phase, and as you've just pointed out, aternox was too.

And @Aragonn, yes, Colby is a person we certainly don't want to lose, so it would seem likely that someone who's played with him often before would know to eliminate him quickly.

It seems I need to refresh my memory of the last game to keep up with the metagaming...

Not much to tell. I only checked activity, as it was activity that betrayed Sauron in WW III. Everyone, except those who are about to get lynched for inactivity, were active at some point while I observed during the night phase, and as you've just pointed out, aternox was too.

Correct me if I'm wrong:

1. During the night, you check everyone's activity and note that there are some people who haven't logged in during the night phase. This includes players who have been completely inactive, and aternox.
2. The next day phase, that is, this phase, you start 'looking at' aternox, as one of your first posts.
3. Later on, when you're questioned (by me), why you voted Sapphiron and not aternox/Wintermoot, you say it's because aternox was 'very absent', and therefore you've 'removed him' from your suspect list.
4. I reveal aternox wasn't completely inactive during the night phase.

In sum, you thought you knew aternox was inactive during the night which you later use to justify your lack of suspicion on him yet he is one of the first people you suspect in the day phase. You could've picked just about anyone else (or no one) but you picked him. And then you disregard him because of his absence.

Surely if his absence was worth removing him from your suspect list you would've stuck with the same line of reasoning from the start of the day?

And based on your most recent post, who do you suggest we should narrow the list down to based on your conclusion that it's likely to be 'someone who's played with [Colberius] often before'?

I'm also looking at aternox for the same reason, though he hasn't been online much.

That was a rather unfortunate choice of words. :/

It bears noting, however, that the reason I looked at him and Sapphiron was because I had played with them only once before, and we were all PM'ing each other because of our power roles, and being active in the forum discussion too. It struck me as odd that they were both more quiet this time around, so I commented on that, and then stated that aternox's lack of activity (as I perceived it at the time) made me go with Sapphiron instead. I also immediately pointed out that it is a pretty terrible guess meant to generate discussion.

Honestly, I don't know who I would really say I suspect right now. With all the inaccuracies I've been spewing for the last few hours, I would probably be my own prime suspect. No use dancing around the matter.

I'm running out of time, so Vote: eject Sapphiron

I'm also looking at aternox for the same reason, though he hasn't been online much.

That was a rather unfortunate choice of words. :/

It bears noting, however, that the reason I looked at him and Sapphiron was because I had played with them only once before, and we were all PM'ing each other because of our power roles, and being active in the forum discussion too. It struck me as odd that they were both more quiet this time around, so I commented on that, and then stated that aternox's lack of activity (as I perceived it at the time) made me go with Sapphiron instead. I also immediately pointed out that it is a pretty terrible guess meant to generate discussion.

Honestly, I don't know who I would really say I suspect right now. With all the inaccuracies I've been spewing for the last few hours, I would probably be my own prime suspect. No use dancing around the matter.

I have no qualms about your vote for Sapphiron, it is your line of reasoning used against (and for) aternox which troubles me. You haven't done much to alleviate the concern.

You've switched from your trademark style of dominating the conversation to something more defensive, even flippant, in a matter of a few posts.

You've still failed to seriously answer my question on narrowing down the suspect pool.

Aragonn, if you read this post before the end of this phase I'd like to hear why you voted Sapphiron instead of anyone else (like Laurentus, or myself) assuming you know your vote tips the balance against Sapphiron.

This goes for everyone else too: please state some reasoning when you vote.

I have been shown to be inaccurate, and so I've really become more submissive than defensive/flippant. I can understand "defensive," even though that's not really what I'm doing, but branding my behaviour as "flippant" is a bit extreme. As far as I understand, flippant means lack of respect or not being serious, but correct me if I'm wrong there, as English is not my mother-tongue.

When I've been shown to make a mistake, I do take a moment to reflect on that and acknowledge the matter so as to try and avoid making that mistake again. The thing is that I can't honestly say I wouldn't find my behaviour suspicious if I were seeing someone else behave in this way, as I've made quite a few errors, and this is one of the ways to spot a wolf.

And that's what I'm saying, my choice of words ("looking at" instead of "looked at") with regards to aternox is indefensible. It was simply a mistake. If I (rightly) draw fire from that and get ejected, I have no one to blame but myself, even though I'm innocent. I can't set your mind at ease with that, really. All I can say is that I made a mistake. I'm hoping fellow Hyperians will vouch for me when I say that I always behave this way when I've made a mistake.

As for narrowing down the suspect pool, I don't much like going on witch hunts. I mentioned that Wintermoot is suspicious just for being Wintermoot and surviving this long, but that's a poor reason to be suspicious, and now that you've shown that aternox was indeed active two hours before the night phase ended, my original (though poor) reasoning with going for Sapphiron would have been perfectly applicable to him too. I simply don't have a solid idea of who I'd consider to be most suspicious, since nothing has really presented itself, apart from Sapphiron's reactionary vote for me, and the reasoning of it.

So I guess the logical quandary here is that there have been two players who have acted out of character (as you perceive my current behaviour), and they're voting for each other, so if they're wolves, why on Earth would they vote for each other? And if only one of them is the wolf, how do we pinpoint which one it is, given that they've both acted strangely? Can we therefore safely assume that one of them is the wolf?

That's an answer you'll have to find for yourself.

I only know that I'm not a wolf, and though I'm not sold on my vote for Sapphiron, it is the best I have at the moment.

I've also inadvertently answered the question of why I could, and could not, be a wolf. Your turn.

I've been watching the debate, but haven't been able to reply until now cause I've been at work.

It seems like there's a lot of cause for suspicion on both ends. On one hand, we have Sapphiron, who made a move that isn't very characteristic of him...is this the move of someone that was stressed, or the move of a Koopa that wants rid of one of the more outspoken people in the game? Then we have Laurentus, who spoke of the recently departed in the last turn, gave inaccurate data, and has generally led the discussion overall today...is this the work of a determined victim of mistakes and circumstance, or a Koopa trying to talk his way out of suspicion? And this is only among-st those with votes at the moment.

I've no clue who it could be, but right now Laurentus seems to have more unfortunate factors against him, so I'll vote to eject Laurentus.

To answer Laurentus's question, the main suspicion of me being a wolf would be the fact that I'm still here, although perhaps the real wolf assumed I'd be voted off and decided not to waste their first selection. Who knows?

I know how Sapphiron operates from WW IV

It seems my old friend randomiser and I are about to have a little reunion.

Bonne chance, Sapphiron! I must say I rather didn't expect us to be at odds like this so soon.

Sorry guys, I've been a bit busy IRL.

Thinking about the first day for a moment, I would think with so many single votes that it is less likely than usual a koopa would vote for another koopa.

That would imply that it is likely at most one person from each of these pairs is a koopa.
Laurentus or Taulover
Wintermoot or Mlfailor

The following voted for or were voted by someone who has been confirmed to be a toad:
Laurentus
Myself

The following voted for themselves:
Sapphiron
Aragonn
Aaron Specter

Mlfailor and Anneliese didn't vote.

In the second phase so far we have had Laurentus voting against Sapphiron, and vice versa. Aragonn voted against Sapphiron, and Wintermoot voted against Laurentus.

Again assuming that with such low vote number the koopas aren't voting for each other:
Laurentus or Sapphiron
Aragonn or Sapphiron
Wintermoot or Laurentus

Seeing there are only two koopas, there are only so many possible pairs. I won't list them cause there are still too many at the moment, but it could prove useful later.

Looking at the posts today, I notice that Aaron Specter hasn't voted. He clearly is picking holes in Laurentus's arguments, but whether that is because Laurentus is just the most active or because he is trying to help Sapphiron is hard to say.

Wintermoot being alive could equally mean he is a koopa, or that the koopa's expected he would be defended or are trying to set him up. I don't think it is worth voting for him based off that alone.

Aragonn didn't exactly share a lot of reasoning behind his vote. That always makes me wonder how legit the reason is, but I feel that wolves are more likely to make sure they give reasons or make out like they are really really unsure.

I'm not sure voting for someone other than Laurentus or Sapphiron is worth it at this stage of the phase.

I will Vote: Lynch Sapphiron. I don't think a wolf would put so much effort into posting if they were in Laurentus's shoes. If he wasn't posting this round would have been a lot quieter which is in the wolves favour.