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Game Over on Round 5 Day

Root Host: ☆ Princess Abigail ☆

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Also, please discuss my suggestion and what it implies carefully. Town can actually guarantee a win in this game if people think about it a bit outside of the box.

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Majority is 3

I think

I claim vanilla, and I propose my slot to be a strategic mislynch so we can guarantee we make into the night with two Power Roles.
With this info out it's risky to let me alive during the night since scum can just keep me alive, making me a living WIFOM in -Lo.

Vote: ExLight

People should still discuss who they think is scummy, though. And what each of the flips among the remaining 4 would imply when it comes to other players.

You are correct in your reasoning for why taking you into the night has a greater chance of the wolf killing one of the PRs. Which is why you shouldn't have. Now we are going to have a dead day without discussion because the elimination has pretty much been decided for us - nobody is going to have such a strong wolfread on anyone that they're willing to risk it.

Your reasoning for tomorrow if both PRs make it is wrong though. Wolf will 100% cc one of the two PRs. They will then cross, and the uncounterclaimed PR will have to choose one - it's not a guaranteed win.

I think

You think correctly!

Your reasoning for tomorrow if both PRs make it is wrong though. Wolf will 100% cc one of the two PRs. They will then cross, and the uncounterclaimed PR will have to choose one - it's not a guaranteed win.

Tbh we get the same odds if everyone claims today: two clears who can't be cced (because we just kill both), one dies in the night, the other gets to play kingmaker. In both scenarios the wolf gets to choose who has hammer tomorrow.

I claim vanilla, and I propose my slot to be a strategic mislynch so we can guarantee we make into the night with two Power Roles.
With this info out it's risky to let me alive during the night since scum can just keep me alive, making me a living WIFOM in -Lo.

Vote: ExLight

People should still discuss who they think is scummy, though. And what each of the flips among the remaining 4 would imply when it comes to other players.

You are correct in your reasoning for why taking you into the night has a greater chance of the wolf killing one of the PRs. Which is why you shouldn't have. Now we are going to have a dead day without discussion because the elimination has pretty much been decided for us - nobody is going to have such a strong wolfread on anyone that they're willing to risk it.

Your reasoning for tomorrow if both PRs make it is wrong though. Wolf will 100% cc one of the two PRs. They will then cross, and the uncounterclaimed PR will have to choose one - it's not a guaranteed win.

Oh, you're right about scum counterclaiming PRs. I... I'm not sure why it slipped my mind, that's a bit embarrassing.
I'm not very confident if it matter anymore.

Also, I disagree with today not generating discussion. People can still discuss the events from the previous days. In particular EoD1, early D2, and the little we had from D3.

And depending on how people approach my slot and my plan I know of a way we can guarantee a win for Town here.

And depending on how people approach my slot and my plan I know of a way we can guarantee a win for Town here.

I will probably elaborate on this a bit more: Townlock me and ignore my plan to mislynch me.

By simply trusting my slot, and forcing a massclaim, we force scum to claim vanilla here. There will be 2 other vanilla claims aside from my slot, and the scum will be guaranteed to be among those two. If people trust me enough we can use the two Day elims to guarantee getting rid of the last mafia.

I am aware that this is a massive WIFOM, but I hope this gesture of me volunteering to be the mislynch shows itself as a gesture of good faith to improve our odds (even though I overlooked an important detail Sugar Moon mentioned above).

Your reasoning for tomorrow if both PRs make it is wrong though. Wolf will 100% cc one of the two PRs. They will then cross, and the uncounterclaimed PR will have to choose one - it's not a guaranteed win.

Tbh we get the same odds if everyone claims today: two clears who can't be cced (because we just kill both), one dies in the night, the other gets to play kingmaker. In both scenarios the wolf gets to choose who has hammer tomorrow.

Ah, you're right. We wouldn't lynch a Power Role if they claimed today, so we always end with one alive in -Lo.
I... I might be stupid.

Please everyone ignore everything I said, I'm overcomplicating things. Let's... Let's just play normally I guess.
Considering I was already a moron and claimed a Massclaim here would be appreciated toDay.

I wanna shove my head into a hole my play this game has been dogshit and it's embarrassing. 

I wanna shove my head into a hole my play this game has been dogshit and it's embarrassing.

Honestly, I feel this has been a rusty game for everyone here… but we must pursue on. We can’t just let mafia win this…

I will probably elaborate on this a bit more: Townlock me and ignore my plan to mislynch me.

By simply trusting my slot, and forcing a massclaim, we force scum to claim vanilla here. There will be 2 other vanilla claims aside from my slot, and the scum will be guaranteed to be among those two. If people trust me enough we can use the two Day elims to guarantee getting rid of the last mafia.

I am aware that this is a massive WIFOM, but I hope this gesture of me volunteering to be the mislynch shows itself as a gesture of good faith to improve our odds (even though I overlooked an important detail Sugar Moon mentioned above).

Exlight, I feel you might be onto something. We know that there has only been one civilian role eliminated (IceT, who helped us get the first mafia), leaving 2 left. So we have 2 vanilla, 2 roled town and 1 mafia. Realistically roled townies wouldn’t claim unless they had already gotten vital information, because a role death would mean mafia are more likely to win.

So I feel like if anyone were to claim as a role without providing proof against a mafia, they themself might be mafia. But then there’s also the fact that this would mean that everyone would claim vanilla town. Problem is with this is that if everyone claims vanilla town, then we can’t prove anyone is vanilla town.

If everyone is safe, no one is safe, and everyone is unsafe.

Leesbra, you're missing an important point, we're on endgame. When we approach an endgame the ideal is for all people to claim their roles, there's no more information to be gained from these roles, so there's no reason for them to w
It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop.

It's an open setup. We know we have a bodyguard and a cop. The current Roled Town are pretty useless at this point and act as innocent child. Cop will get a green result on everyone since the remaining scum is godfather, and bodyguard doesn't care about protecting anyone in particular since we don't have any other mechanically cleared players.

If the Bodyguard and the Cop claim today, then mafia CANNOT counterclaim them today, because otherwise we'll lynch both the conflicting claims.
Because of that, we will have 3 vanilla claims. We can lynch 2 of these claims - one toDay and one in the next Day Phase. So massclaiming right now is the ideal because regardless of what we do we're always at a 50/50 scenario on -Lo, so we might as well already work with a smaller one today so we don't risk lynching a power role, plus have updated readslist and can reread interactions under a new light.

Brief update on the math: 2/3 of lynching town today, and then 1/2 chance of lynching town again next Day means a 1/3 chance total, so in the end my math was still right and we have a 66.67% chance of lynching scum at random if we do this.

*so there's no reason for them to withhold information on who they are.

Mafia killing a Role Death after a mass claim doesn't improve their odds here. Like Sugar Moon mentioned they can always just fake claim to be the remaining roled Death.

Maybe if I break each scenario down:


> If we don't Massclaim:
>> We never lynch a Power Role because I claimed vanilla and can be toDay's Lynch
>>> Scenario 1: I get lynched today and a Power Role dies during the Night: 1 Roled, 1 Vanilla, 1 Mafia. Mafia has to counterclaim one of the two: 50/50.
>>> Scenario 2: I get lynched today and no Power Role dies during the Night: 2 Roled, 1 Mafia. Mafia has to counterclaim one of the two Roled: 50/50.

> If we Massclaim: 
>> Scum can't claim Roled or we're guaranteed eliminate them (one toDay, one next Day). They fake claim Vanilla. We lynch any of the Vanillas. Mafia will also know to shoot a Roled person, since shooting a Vanilla would out them as mafia.
>>> Scenario 3: We lynch a Vanilla and a Power Role dies during the Night: 1 Roled, 1 Vanilla, 1 Mafia. Mafia is already pretending to be vanilla: 50/50.

> If we Massclaim:
>> Scum can't claim Roled or we're guaranteed eliminate them (one toDay, one next Day). They fake claim Vanilla. We lynch any of the Vanillas. Mafia will also know to shoot a Roled person, since shooting a Vanilla would out them as mafia.
>>> Scenario 3: We lynch a Vanilla and a Power Role dies during the Night: 1 Roled, 1 Vanilla, 1 Mafia. Mafia is already pretending to be vanilla: 50/50.

So either way it seems we have a 50/50? Also, I was planning on listing an idea with this but felt it was stupid (Let Bodyguard be the night kill, as Cop determines one of the two other remaining people)

I honor your sacrifice to help us win though, ExLight.