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Game Over on Round 5 Day

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I’m starting to see the importance of both Cop and Bodyguard claiming today:

Mafia Claims: Mafia either gets lynched on the 50/50 this day, or dies next day in the 100% guarantee due to their claim

Mafia Doesn’t Claim: 1 Vanilla gets deleted today, Bodyguard can guard Cop to guarantee their own death or the vanilla villagers as Cop investigates one of the remaining supposed vanillas.

If the Vanilla dies, then the Cop and Bodyguard know who is Mafia, because neither of them are.
If the Bodyguard dies, then Cop knows who is or isn’t Mafia.


@ExLight does the math work out here? Because if so, this seems like a town victory.

(I accidentally said tonight instead of today for a part. Whoops.)

The cop has no function anymore beyond being claimable, because the remaining mafioso is immune to the cop (godfather). I think it's important that discussion this phase be predominantly behavioral at least as much as mechanical, because I don't see a claims system that would provide better odds than just proceeding and having a power role claim if they are threatened toward EOD (or near a hammer of 3 votes). I could be mistaken; it has been a long day and it is difficult to think straight.

The cop has no function anymore beyond being claimable, because the remaining mafioso is immune to the cop (godfather). I think it's important that discussion this phase be predominantly behavioral at least as much as mechanical, because I don't see a claims system that would provide better odds than just proceeding and having a power role claim if they are threatened toward EOD (or near a hammer of 3 votes). I could be mistaken; it has been a long day and it is difficult to think straight.

I’m honestly feeling a bit worn out too, but if that is the case (where Cop cannot see Godfather as mafia), then this seems like we’re back to regular guessing…

POE would suggest the answer is Serif. Maybe. I find myself troubled by one thing though: I'm not sure Serif would be likely to kill Caitlin as a wolf.

Caitlin was effectively confirmed town, and perhaps that's all that needs to be said. Still, Caitlin was clearly the most pro-Serif player in this thread. I'm also not sure that Serif has been engaged with the game to such an extent that "make the mechanically appropriate kill" needs to be an assumption even for them as mafia. They seem kind of unaware in general (understandably, no offense intended).

I acknowledge the wifom. I think we're sort of forced to confront wifom at this stage though. I'd like to really go through the game again and fully reassess. I have visitors here though, and it is not easy for me to get into this thread. I think I'll have time tomorrow evening if folks avoid any hammers until then. Before that time, I can still poke in on my phone a bit and at least talk the game over.

The dialogue I had previously with ExLight about GloriousBob being killed makes me want to go back and look at Bob's posts more closely. Bob was killed for some reason, and that should be assessed (while acknowledging possibilities like "power role chasing" or "bodyguard dodging"). I'll make that a priority now while I have a moment.

Spoiler

Speaking of Jay, he's a great player indeed. I must say he does seem to be townie or at least he passes enough as such but Callahan's read of him is so common and reasonable that Jay erring towards omgus when Jay knows people unfamiliar with him accuses him of such things doesn't sit right with your Gloriousness.

Hi Bob! Have we played together before? I don't recognize your username.

I have seen players accuse me of "Lamist" or whatever, or of "trying too hard". The language of those accusations doesn't tend to feature someone taking a post I made and twisting it into the worst possible interpretation of that post (at least not when the accusation is an honest one). More often the legitimate accusations are that I am stilted or too formal or that kind of thing.

Perhaps I am responding emotionally, but I have also been dealt difficulties in the not-distant past by wolves reading me as wolfy and throwing me off balance.

I'm an old and wizened man my boy I've seen them all in my travels. In a past life I was a great adventurer they called MacDougall.

What a Glorious day for a Bob like me.

My glory overwhelms me at times. My bobness too.

GloriousBob wishes to remind you all that Mafia is a silly past time shared by a largely lonely and sorrowful bunch who are more like one another than we often care to admit and to remember how it feels when other people say mean words to you before you say them yourself.

Vote 1, GlooooriousBob.

Speaking of Jay, he's a great player indeed. I must say he does seem to be townie or at least he passes enough as such but Callahan's read of him is so common and reasonable that Jay erring towards omgus when Jay knows people unfamiliar with him accuses him of such things doesn't sit right with your Gloriousness.

Hi Bob! Have we played together before? I don't recognize your username.

I have seen players accuse me of "Lamist" or whatever, or of "trying too hard". The language of those accusations doesn't tend to feature someone taking a post I made and twisting it into the worst possible interpretation of that post (at least not when the accusation is an honest one). More often the legitimate accusations are that I am stilted or too formal or that kind of thing.

Perhaps I am responding emotionally, but I have also been dealt difficulties in the not-distant past by wolves reading me as wolfy and throwing me off balance.

You are not real YOU ARE NOT REAL WHAT IS THIS?? Why are you trying to drag someone into what we are talking about right now? If you feel like you are responding emotionally, then please take a break from this thread, and come back to me when you have your emotions sorted out.

Now this is a confusing rhetoric my boy. He isn't dragging me in, he's replying to my own shared opinion. You can't be casting declarations of dismay over such things lad.

I'm sorry but having this as the first thing you say to someone, I'm literally flabbergasted, like that is not like I'm just so flabbergasted with what he just said to you

Why is that my dear lad? I don't share the concern.

Okay, we roleplaying here, but I just don't understand that is the first thing you say to someone and your attempt is to drag them into the argument, and for what purpose? Is it because they can't defend themselves on their own, are they looking for support, or are they calling for their partner to help them out? I just have never personally tried to drag someone into an argument I'm having with someone, especially the first thing I said to a person.

Callahan he didn't drag me into anything, he read my comment and is replying to it. Are you okay lad?

Speaking of Jay, he's a great player indeed. I must say he does seem to be townie or at least he passes enough as such but Callahan's read of him is so common and reasonable that Jay erring towards omgus when Jay knows people unfamiliar with him accuses him of such things doesn't sit right with your Gloriousness.

Speaking of Jay, he's a great player indeed. I must say he does seem to be townie or at least he passes enough as such but Callahan's read of him is so common and reasonable that Jay erring towards omgus when Jay knows people unfamiliar with him accuses him of such things doesn't sit right with your Gloriousness.

Hi Bob! Have we played together before? I don't recognize your username.

I have seen players accuse me of "Lamist" or whatever, or of "trying too hard". The language of those accusations doesn't tend to feature someone taking a post I made and twisting it into the worst possible interpretation of that post (at least not when the accusation is an honest one). More often the legitimate accusations are that I am stilted or too formal or that kind of thing.

Perhaps I am responding emotionally, but I have also been dealt difficulties in the not-distant past by wolves reading me as wolfy and throwing me off balance.

You are not real YOU ARE NOT REAL WHAT IS THIS?? Why are you trying to drag someone into what we are talking about right now? If you feel like you are responding emotionally, then please take a break from this thread, and come back to me when you have your emotions sorted out.

Now this is a confusing rhetoric my boy. He isn't dragging me in, he's replying to my own shared opinion. You can't be casting declarations of dismay over such things lad.

I'm sorry but having this as the first thing you say to someone, I'm literally flabbergasted, like that is not like I'm just so flabbergasted with what he just said to you

Why is that my dear lad? I don't share the concern.

In my years, and they are many, two warriors in the cohort of the God butting heads has occurred ooooh so many times. Too many times to count. And I've gotten quite good at seeing it when I see it.

I think you two have the potential for this hiccup to be instead an origin story of a great alliance

I think I will retract my vote and suspicion on Leesbra for now.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

ExLight is perhaps my top town for I do believe they are genuinely trying to solve my alignment and do not have it.

Caitlin ah dear Caitlin. It is a difficult proposition articulating suspicion on you in a way that I am confident won't aggrieve you so I shan't reiterate my prior point. Apologies if I have the wrong of you.

Leesbra, at an earlier point of the game I felt like Leesbra was coming off awkward... "stilted" being the word. But Luka dropped a very flippant townread on them. My thought at the time was, well maybe Luka can be wrong. But as the game has unfolded Caitlin has also come to the defense of Leesbra strongly. I learn over time that this means Leesbra is probably town, particularly when one of the players shielding them is mafia.

Michi > Jamie, during catch up Jamie made a few posts I quite thought were townie. I forget what they said exactly but their reads felt organic.

Callahan I was perhaps wrong on. In that I defended them to Jay. But subsequent to this interaction they have not profiled as the same type of player in further interactions. Their Jay read developed into a quite oddball townread and outside of their flirtation with tunneling KOFM himself their play has been chaotic in a way that doesn't feel townie. Less pursuit of solutions and more pursuit of resolutions if you catch my meaning.

Luka is an enigma. They remind me of one of my versions. It feels like they steamed into the game issuing takes to generate impressions but has had an emotion draining event occur and ergo has been unable to maintain. I leave alone for now. I think lightly townie to blatantly fall off.

JJJ is town but not overwhelmingly so as yet. They seem progressive, which is good. And need continue to be. Heed my words that if at any stage I'm gone and Jay remains alive, his momentum must maintain or improve. Any falling off should be viewed with high scepticism. Any laziness. On merit his play has felt mostly genuine and his solving has been the most coherent and rational to me. And we must reward good behaviour!

Serif's entry was quite nice. I felt some joy. There was no apprehension. A little bit of playfulness. I give them time.

IceT is as described suspicious to me.

Numbers, curious how I'm their top town but I largely believe I'm mind melding with their other solves.

I feel that if Numbers, Jay, ExLight and myself were able to find each other. We may have a good outcome on this day and in this game. It feels like the towncore to me, but I am aware I perhaps haven't earned entry.

I feel if you don't have confidence in what you are saying, you shouldn't say anything at all

Perhaps it's massive culture or strategy clash, but I am not sure I have ever read a sentence in a Mafia thread that I disagree with more than this sentence. And I have been playing the game for 12 years of my life. This is a landmark event.

I am going to leave the rest alone for now so this doesn't turn into an unnecessarily volatile back-and-forth that will make everyone else miserable. I want to know what others think.

You are the Jagged one. You don't make anything miserable except for the lives of your opponents my boy.

Vote: Leesbra

why does the website have my IP

Ah now this... this is a wolfy entrance.

You may be asking yourself, Bob... how is it that you manage to be so darn Glorious all the time?

The answer is quite simple. I make good decisions. For instance I'm making the decision right now to admin to Jay that I'm MacDougall. Because he probably will find that interesting.

Honestly Mac you are playing very un-Maclike game this game

Why is that?

Dear sweet one Mac is a dynamic system of which Bob is the most glorious.

In my earlier adventures through this beautiful whimsical land I overhead an adventurer by the name of Luka I think it was making reads here and there. Quite an unusual fellow. Quick to issue an opinion. Sort of lad that'd get himself into a mischief in a tavern in my experience.

Now... he was saying he'd be accused of having TMI... and I'm not about to say that means anything because it doesn't. But a couple of the people he made townreads on I didn't really share.

It was so long ago and I've had a belly full of ale so you'll need to forgive me but the people that it was were several and the only one I remember was Leesbra.

That's all to say I think Leesbra is a little bit ... perturbing. Non glorious. Not a lot but certainly a little and I suppose one would be forgiven for finding it interesting Luka was spreading the good word about the fellow.

I think I will retract my vote and suspicion on Leesbra for now.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

But Leesbra didnt rlly do much more

Back, btw

I have explained my re-evaluation of Leesbra in subsequent posts. It is largely due to your own read so I'm curious why you are taking issue with me developing a townread on your townread?

Speaking of Jay, he's a great player indeed. I must say he does seem to be townie or at least he passes enough as such but Callahan's read of him is so common and reasonable that Jay erring towards omgus when Jay knows people unfamiliar with him accuses him of such things doesn't sit right with your Gloriousness.

Hi Bob! Have we played together before? I don't recognize your username.

I have seen players accuse me of "Lamist" or whatever, or of "trying too hard". The language of those accusations doesn't tend to feature someone taking a post I made and twisting it into the worst possible interpretation of that post (at least not when the accusation is an honest one). More often the legitimate accusations are that I am stilted or too formal or that kind of thing.

Perhaps I am responding emotionally, but I have also been dealt difficulties in the not-distant past by wolves reading me as wolfy and throwing me off balance.

You are not real YOU ARE NOT REAL WHAT IS THIS?? Why are you trying to drag someone into what we are talking about right now? If you feel like you are responding emotionally, then please take a break from this thread, and come back to me when you have your emotions sorted out.

Now this is a confusing rhetoric my boy. He isn't dragging me in, he's replying to my own shared opinion. You can't be casting declarations of dismay over such things lad.

Chortle

IceT is suspicious of me for meta.

How unfortunate.

And ExLight sheeping.

*sigh*

Ah mafia, o great love o mine.

Where to begin...

IceT having me as their bottom read is perhaps reasonable from the vantage point of someone with one game of meta on me and none of it Bob meta. Yet...

Jay who has hundreds of games of meta on Mac is not suspicious of me on meta.

Cait who has a few games of meta on Mac is tentatively townreading me.

Numbers appears to be the only one here with Bob meta and recognises this just Bob.

...

So one must ponder whether IceT is simply being opportunistic in voting for a player they can produce a surface level comprehensible reason for suspecting.

Outside of this I have found them to be the more suspicious of the list since entry. They made an archetypally nervous entry commenting on their IP address. Subsequent solving carried the hallmarks of the late entering mafia slot. A giant hodge podgy catch up post quote wall designed to look like a try hard town. Follow up machine gun townreads of varying quality quoting non AI posts loaded with TMI. Topping it off with a vote on the most Glorious.

Now I'm usually not one for OMGUS. Perish that thought indeed, but I was suspicious of IceT before I even read their suspicion of me so I won't accept such accusations.

As for ExLight well...

I think they have had a side eye on me the whole game. Their gaze upon your Glorious has felt earnest in the sense that they are certainly genuinely trying to figure me out. I think their game has been townie and getting townier.

On a separate subject our other recent entrant to the game has felt ... townie but not overwhelmingly so. Just more level and reserved in their take making. Something about this game gives me the impression the town are all relatively findable by looking for the people who are more pensive seeming. While the wolves are among those actually attempting to create a narrative. To fill the silence generated by a waitful town crew.

I have played with Cait quite a bit also as it were.

Young man your concern with me wouldn't be stemming from you being my only suspicion would it?

It's an unusual concern you seem to have calling me what you have. I wouldn't think I'm any more or less guilty of that than half the patronage.

Your acts haven’t solidified my suspicions, just simply made me think on if you could be mafia or not. And while what you said and expressed might be a small point as to why I looked at your posts, it is not what made me suspicious of you. Town can vote town, wolf can vote wolf, it’s happened many times before. You’ve made some questionable acts, but I have not seen you as a full blown wolf through the day.

Questionable acts... such as?

IceT that question is quite odd. Firstly I have at length explained to you why I suspect you and all you need to do is read the posts available to you.

Secondly no I'm not suspecting you due to your read on me being anti consensus albeit the fact that it is lends me to think that it is not as reasonable a read as you think it is.

At any rate your response is rather townie.

Jay what is your issue with Jamie?

Young man your concern with me wouldn't be stemming from you being my only suspicion would it?

It's an unusual concern you seem to have calling me what you have. I wouldn't think I'm any more or less guilty of that than half the patronage.

that's why I TR Jimmy


you might be right Jimmy could be Mafia but I'm TRing them for now and I think you're town for making this post lol

~~~snipped for length~~~

don't know if you guys still suspect each other don't think you are voting each other last time I checked, but I think you 2 are t/t. Luka is the scum here though.

posting this now so y'all know I existed and so this doesn't get too long I read up to page 11

I'm referring to this bit.

Luke is the scum here though is a curious point I'd like them to elaborate on.

less than one hour remaining get schmoving folks

By all means do things.

IceT that question is quite odd. Firstly I have at length explained to you why I suspect you and all you need to do is read the posts available to you.

Secondly no I'm not suspecting you due to your read on me being anti consensus albeit the fact that it is lends me to think that it is not as reasonable a read as you think it is.

At any rate your response is rather townie.

Jay what is your issue with Jamie?

You said if I was being opportunistic in my voting for going you for past meta BC other people TR you

Then you said my opening is scummy (I really don't see how it is)

Then you said my wallpost is scummy

I don't really understand your push on me BC it seems entirely made up of confirmation bias

That may be because you have your own confirmation bias to assist you finding yourself townier than you think you are lol.

Vote: callahan

What is ExLight doing this eod?

Inclined to keep my vote on Jamie

I was contemplating it but it doesn't seem likely to be a hit imo.

Luka has extraordinarily confident reads and has had the whole game. Staking their life on Leesbra and Cait being town and now immediately death tunneling IceT.

Tis weird.

Refresh my memory; has Luka cased someone already?

Not to my mind. Just overly confident hot takes engine.

Well, I have contributed enough for now imo

@GloriousBob I do ask of you to pls explain the reads in your readslist, because they aren't very explained. And I also don't see how you got to an SL on me

I'll be back later but I'll spend time with my lovely girlfriend now

Can't wait for the content of Icet and Serif

Also JJJ - there is no ISO here

The reasons are many and few. The reasons fluctuate between valid and invalid. The reason I suspect you I don't remember. Today is a new day. Now today I slightly suspect you for forcing scumreads. This isn't usually a read I'd make but in this spree of posting here you picked Ex Light and Numbers to push and both of them seem fine. Ex Light's reaction had the requisite town entitlement. Ex Light is quite townie. Numbers has also been... observant. Both of them feel like me in that they're still waiting and watching (at this stage, I am mid catch up). Which is fine. It feels like a gamestate in which the mafia might feel the need to start plotting the course for end day, and the moved you are making feel like a wolf doing that to me.

Jamie not here and nobody really speaking up in his defense as a shrugyeet is not a great sign.

Hm

Thought on Numbers?

I kinda townread them but the options are slim.

Let's please make an effort to avoid dissing the forum, friends. It's not even my forum, but this game is meant to be in part a celebration and return of the Wintreath community.

Indeed I find it charming and nostalgic.

Inclined to keep my vote on Jamie

I was contemplating it but it doesn't seem likely to be a hit imo.

Luka has extraordinarily confident reads and has had the whole game. Staking their life on Leesbra and Cait being town and now immediately death tunneling IceT.

Tis weird.

In my earlier adventures through this beautiful whimsical land I overhead an adventurer by the name of Luka I think it was making reads here and there. Quite an unusual fellow. Quick to issue an opinion. Sort of lad that'd get himself into a mischief in a tavern in my experience.

Now... he was saying he'd be accused of having TMI... and I'm not about to say that means anything because it doesn't. But a couple of the people he made townreads on I didn't really share.

It was so long ago and I've had a belly full of ale so you'll need to forgive me but the people that it was were several and the only one I remember was Leesbra.

That's all to say I think Leesbra is a little bit ... perturbing. Non glorious. Not a lot but certainly a little and I suppose one would be forgiven for finding it interesting Luka was spreading the good word about the fellow.

Yes, Luka is sus
But many others, including myself, also townread Leesbra
So why do you specifically come after Luka for this?

Luka's read was the most flippant.

Vote: callahan

I really really dont wanna vote there sorry

Callahan's return just after I left just feels so town!Callahan

I dont rlly know how to describe it but meta-wise I think she's def town

Can you offer a more thorough explanation of it?

Vote: ExLight

gross
so much for being your top townread huh

Reads change and you haven't engaged me the countless olive branches I've extended.

wait nvm I do remember calling Bob scum I voted them lol I think they're town now

Yes highly curious behaviour.

Ex also bothered me when they just ignored half my posts, pretty consistently

Like for example I was explaining why I asked Ex why they showed up, because various ppl accused me for wondering such a thing. I also stated that it MAY be a coincidence, which is why I asked

Ex however FULLY ignored that I wrote that in the post, and also was acting like I was acting them again over it, when I was just explaining my motivation behind asking it? Was I supposed to just let myself get accused when I asked it with good reason?

I prefer voting Ex above voting Jamie.

To add to this; Ex's reads are over the place. They want me and Jamie wagoned, and next also wagoned Bob.

Also theres 3 mafia @Luka

omg cait town slipped

Cait or Luka?

I think both

No Cait is claiming to have been reaction testing.

I think I will retract my vote and suspicion on Leesbra for now.

Vote: IcetFeelsPain

But Leesbra didnt rlly do much more

Back, btw

I have explained my re-evaluation of Leesbra in subsequent posts. It is largely due to your own read so I'm curious why you are taking issue with me developing a townread on your townread?

Well I thought the progress was weird? I wouldve read more on it but I literally just returned, so I didnt know you wrote more on it.

Fair enough. Essentially one part sheeping others, one part developing a theory of what the mafia would be acting like in this gamestate and them not fitting into it.

It is perturbing that I want ExLight to decide today's chop as I am most comfortable with their alignment and also think they have the best chance of no scoping a wolf yet they remain voting me and aren't doing much this eod.

Failing this I will probably just end up voting alongside Jay.

You may be asking yourself, Bob... how is it that you manage to be so darn Glorious all the time?

The answer is quite simple. I make good decisions. For instance I'm making the decision right now to admin to Jay that I'm MacDougall. Because he probably will find that interesting.

Ex also bothered me when they just ignored half my posts, pretty consistently

Like for example I was explaining why I asked Ex why they showed up, because various ppl accused me for wondering such a thing. I also stated that it MAY be a coincidence, which is why I asked

Ex however FULLY ignored that I wrote that in the post, and also was acting like I was acting them again over it, when I was just explaining my motivation behind asking it? Was I supposed to just let myself get accused when I asked it with good reason?

I prefer voting Ex above voting Jamie.

then vote me?
I'd rather just get lynched D1 than have to deal with you tunneling me nonstop again

Do you have some sort of personal issue with me? Why do you keep doing this? Last game you also kept getting reasons out of thin air to keep telling people to push for me even though it almost caused our team to lose

I was already vocal that I didn't find Jamie's slot townie as usual and that yours was NAI at best. I now pointed out that I didn't like Bob's vote. How is being content with these three gaining some traction "all over the place"?
You were complaining about no reads and when I take a more vocal stance on some of the slots that are catching my attention in a negative manner you start saying they're scummy? Give a break.

What of my vote?

this actually doesn't change the fact how I think Luka is town now but Luka could've 100% faked that slip

Icet being convinced by the slip is so pure & townie

Icet/Callahan/Serif is my towncore

That is a nigh unbelievable towncore.

Jay what is your issue with Jamie?

Jamie is probably the only player for whom I hold some concrete suspicion that cannot, as yet, be challenged by the meta provided by anyone else. They seem floaty, and I have reasons to question the sincerity of some of their town reads.

Was there something in particular you liked from them?

Yes but without the benefit of the ISO feature  I don't really think I'll be finding it.

I don't really like Ex's reaction rn but I also liked their posts before

Bob if you're super confident on Ex I'll vote with you

You don't want to vote Jamie?

Vote: ExLight

Vote: ExLight

whatever it's always the same bullshit this is why I hate playing out of bulba/ZD

hope this at least gives you all some decent vote interactions to work with because some are obviously bizarre

Why would you do this you aren't even the vote leader?

Vote a scumread. This is silly.

Vote: callahan

I really really dont wanna vote there sorry

Callahan's return just after I left just feels so town!Callahan

I dont rlly know how to describe it but meta-wise I think she's def town

Can you offer a more thorough explanation of it?

It's just kinda like... It feels like she really cares about solving the game and looking good, and what I realized now is that she isnt *actually* confident. It feels like she's just playing up her confidence, which to me makes it look more genuine. I'd overall say confident!Callahan is more likely mafia as I said before, with the outtake being the video. But this feels like an up-played confidence also shown by how she takes a step back from just pushing JJJ later, when mafia!her could probs continue doing so; she was winning the battle and JJJ being voted out would be a valuable vote for mafia. If she was mafia I think she'd stick there or just display more actual confidence

Jay was never dying today with the way he played and my read on him. Winning the battle was never on the cards imo.

Vote: ExLight

whatever it's always the same bullshit this is why I hate playing out of bulba/ZD

hope this at least gives you all some decent vote interactions to work with because some are obviously bizarre

Why would you do this you aren't even the vote leader?

Vote a scumread. This is silly.

if the hosts count the improper votes I have four on me (+luka and +cait) with icet wanting to vote me depending on your answer

I was never planning to vote you out I was just trying to generate vote logic.

How do y'all feel about Michi --> Jamie?

Reasonably null.

I kind of townread both Ice and Luka honestly.

Jamie not here and nobody really speaking up in his defense as a shrugyeet is not a great sign.

Ex also bothered me when they just ignored half my posts, pretty consistently

Like for example I was explaining why I asked Ex why they showed up, because various ppl accused me for wondering such a thing. I also stated that it MAY be a coincidence, which is why I asked

Ex however FULLY ignored that I wrote that in the post, and also was acting like I was acting them again over it, when I was just explaining my motivation behind asking it? Was I supposed to just let myself get accused when I asked it with good reason?

I prefer voting Ex above voting Jamie.

To add to this; Ex's reads are over the place. They want me and Jamie wagoned, and next also wagoned Bob.

Also theres 3 mafia @Luka

Thanks
Yeah its Ice +2
Vote: IcetFeelsPain

there is 2 mafia

I accept the derpclear from Luka tbh.

1. ExLight moderate town
3. Caitlin null lean wolf
4. Leesbra lean wolf
5. Michi > Jamie lean wolf
6. Callahan lean town
7. Luka lean town
8. JJJ lean town
9. GoldenOne ?
10. DarchAngel ?
11. Numbers lean town

not optimal

Town:
Leesbr / Bob / Cait +4
Forgot how much evils there were, If its 3 id bet on icet being one of them, however the fact that nobody is siding thme in this pursuit is townie. I was LHF at the time and nobody is defending him; with nearly every slot defending me.

Quite an astute observation

Vote: JamieIsBored

I wanted a GloriousBob ISO, so I made one myself. Don't click the spoiler unless you want every single GloriousBob post on your screen.

I note that Bob voted for all of Leesbra, ExLight, and callahan/Sugar Moon at least once during Day 1 (the latter two near EOD).

So. lol

I'm gonna stare at the details for a while and see if I can squeeze out some new insight.

Note to self: serif replaced GoldenOne

keep forgetting

When I throw a big multi-quote ISO into a pile like that, does it randomize their order? I'm so confused about how that GloriousBob spoiler ended up. Oh well, at least there are timestamps.

I'm trying to track the progressions of Bob's reads on the living players, and that is more difficult when the posts are in a crazy order. But I think this is how it went:

Bob on ExLight -- started decent, became highly positive, and was highly positive for the majority of Day 1. Only at the very end did Bob vote for ExLight briefly when they seemed to think ExLight was sidelining EOD (or something like that). That looks more like a pressure move than something Bob would have wanted me to treat as a hard suspicion from a legacy standpoint. The vast majority of Bob's takes on ExLight were in the town-reads direction. Here's a late-Day 1 example:

ExLight is perhaps my top town for I do believe they are genuinely trying to solve my alignment and do not have it.

Bob on Leesbra -- Bob suspected Leesbra arguably more than anyone else for much of Day 1. While some players were town reading Leesbra early, Bob was expressing misgivings (and responding to Leesbra's mutual suspicion of them with more misgivings). However, Bob ended Day 1 with a different viewpoint:

Leesbra, at an earlier point of the game I felt like Leesbra was coming off awkward... "stilted" being the word. But Luka dropped a very flippant townread on them. My thought at the time was, well maybe Luka can be wrong. But as the game has unfolded Caitlin has also come to the defense of Leesbra strongly. I learn over time that this means Leesbra is probably town, particularly when one of the players shielding them is mafia.

This is important to me, because this is the kind of read that is Bob's bread and butter. Indeed, they wrote a literal article about making this kind of read (click here). This tells me that Bob placed a lot of value in this process that arrived at a town read on Leesbra and probably would have stuck to it given time. Now, that doesn't necessarily mean Leesbra would understand that dynamic -- but nonetheless, the final read by Bob on Leesbra was a town read.

Bob on serif -- There's not a whole lot here. That's understandable, there wasn't much to say about the serif slot in general. When they provided the reads list from which I extracted the quotes above, this was the serif note:

Serif's entry was quite nice. I felt some joy. There was no apprehension. A little bit of playfulness. I give them time.

It's at least a little positive. Certainly not negative. I'm not sure there's a clear behavioral reason for serif to want Bob removed.

Bob on callahan/Sugar Moon -- Bob's initial take on callahan was positive. They seemed to interpret the argument between callahan and I as "town/town", and served as a sort of mediator in that moment. Props to Bob for doing that, by the way. Regardless of callahan's alignment, that is a very pro-town thing to do, and others should take note in future games. Very well managed. Anyway, that read trajectory was probably the one that changed the most for the worse. For example:

Callahan I was perhaps wrong on. In that I defended them to Jay. But subsequent to this interaction they have not profiled as the same type of player in further interactions. Their Jay read developed into a quite oddball townread and outside of their flirtation with tunneling KOFM himself their play has been chaotic in a way that doesn't feel townie. Less pursuit of solutions and more pursuit of resolutions if you catch my meaning.

Bob seemed to change their impression of the "town/town" argument based upon callahan's progression after that event, and this isn't accompanied by the same late Day 1 town read nods Bob afforded to the others in this analysis. Bob also voted callahan in the vicinity of EOD, and I don't get the impression it had the same pressure-based function that their vote on ExLight may have had.

Based on all of this, if Bob was killed at least in part due to their reads, my first guess would be callahan/Sugar Moon being a part of that decision. Still, I add two critical caveats:

1) It's possible that Bob was killed for mechanical reasons instead of behavioral reasons. If so, much of this conjecture is rendered moot. We can't really know on this point. I think it is important to survey all of the evidence available to us anyway, and this is something we can certainly discuss today.

2) Unfortunately, this is entirely about GloriousBob and callahan. That leaves Sugar Moon in a rather crappy position. I'm not sure how they are supposed to address any of this, and I acknowledge that that's lame. Replacements be like that. Nonetheless, I very much welcome your input, Sugar Moon, whether about anything I said regarding callahan or especially the other three.

Ranking the most behavioral evidence suggesting a killing motive, most-to-least:

callahan/Sugar Moon
Leesbra
ExLight
serif

I'm treating GloriousBob as the kill comfortably worth the most from a night kill analysis perspective. Icet and Caitlin dying have much more readily apparent mechanical explanations.

Gonna make a 10th post just in case I get frozen out tomorrow due to my visitors. Unlikely, but whatever I want to ensure the rules are followed.

Plenty to talk about in the meantime, gang.

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

Actually that was pointless, because I want to say one more thing.

My analyzing the Bob kill should not be confused with my overall reads. That ranked list I provided (Sugar Moon > Leesbra > ExLight > serif) refers solely to a single slice of the evidence pie (Bob being killed). My broader POE had led me to the opposite end with serif as the top suspect, so there's some turbulence here for me. This is not an easy choice. I will think it over for now.

I would like to hear your thoughts on the merits of having the PRs claim today.