Ok, time for some actual thoughts. First I will point out that I am not a huge fan of publicly giving town core and town lean reads. Those of you who have read either of my WC games at MU will note that I've made the same argument in both seasons that I played there. If we all, or a majority of us, say that we think X and Y are the most townie in our opinions it just paints a great big bullseye on their backs. I realize that it's easy to get a feel for how some people view others, but still think it's a bad idea to just come right out and say that I find someone lock town. At least early in the game. That can definitely change in the latter stages when there's a lot more to go on than we have in the first few days. That being said, I won't be giving a list breaking down my thoughts on everyone. My win condition, as town, is to identify and eliminate the entire scum team. Personally I find it easier to look for scum than to try town reading enough people to passively find the scum, if that makes sense. Basically what I'm getting at is that for the first few days at least I'm only likely to point out things that I find scummy, or that hit me wrong for whatever reason. It's a strategy that has served me well over the years and I don't see any reason to abandon it at this point.
I didn't really sleep well last night, and got less than 3 hours total, so I'm pretty wiped out and apologize if this rambles or isn't as clear as I would like it to be. I'm also too tired to try and figure out the multi-quote mechanics here so I won't be quoting a bunch of different posts in order to make my case tonight. I'll try to figure that bit out when I'm better rested.
Before I say anything about any particular players, I'd like to take a minute and talk about the modes that can be triggered:
Quiet mode and mute mode - I've already touched on this, as have a few others. I don't see a world in which either of these modes are beneficial to the town. I'd be very suspicious of anyone who triggers either of them. Continuing discussions during the night phase can allow us to plan ahead for the next day and can also allow us to hear the final thoughts of whoever ends up being the NK. Imagine we get near the end of the game and our seer, or someone who has some type of scanning ability, is able to identify the final scum member, but they are unable to relay that information to the rest of us because the quiet mode gets triggered, and that person ends up getting killed at night and takes the identity of the scum to the grave with them. Only bad things can happen when we're silenced, so please, let's not go there.
Time warp - appears to only change the flavor theme, but I'm not 100% sure what that means. Doesn't say that it will change anyone's role or alignment, so probably not a terrible thing to trigger - albeit we aren't told what that trigger is.
Safe mode - this is the only trigger-able mechanic that I think we should at least try to figure out how to trigger, in case we need it. Someone (sorry, don't remember who and don't feel like searching for it) laid out their ideas for when we should and should not try to use it. I generally agreed with the logic that they used. If there's only 1 person killed during a phase then it's beneficial to us to use the mode if possible and revive them (provided that they're town). Here's where my uncertainty kicks in though - the rules state that if it gets triggered then AT THE END OF THE PHASE an option will appear and we all get to vote on whether or not to enact the mode. The rules also state that the mode will last until the end of the phase. Does that mean if it gets triggered during the day that at EoD the vote option will appear and that if we vote yes then safe mode would last through the night? Bit confusing the way it's worded. If we trigger during the day but don't get to vote yes/no until the end of the phase then what's the point of entering the mode only to have the phase end at that point. And as for the vote, would we be told the role/alignment of the dead person(people) before we vote or not? The rules aren't clear on that point. If there are multiple deaths then I do agree that the alignment flip would pretty much 100% have to be from town to scum, because flipping a scum to town basically hoses the rest of the scum team - an outcome that I'm sure the hosts would have though of and decided against.
This is the first time I've ever played in a game where all of the included roles weren't made public knowledge. It's also the first game that I've played in which the number of scum team members isn't disclosed at the start of the game. Those two factors together seem to me to favor the scum team - they can make almost any claim that they want and we don't have a really good way to disprove what they say without lynching them and hoping that the person claiming a role is scum lying and not town telling the truth to try and save themselves. Don't really see any way around this, merely pointing it out so that anyone who may not have thought of it is now aware. Someone posted earlier and suggested that a 3v to 1s ratio is generally accepted as normal, so with 17 players I'm going to guess that there are either 4 or 5 members of the scum team, with 4 being more likely. But we don't really have a way of knowing if that's correct or not until the game is over.
Now to address some of the scum leans I have. It's only D1 and so the list isn't really long.
In my experience, the scum team, or at least a good chunk of it, can usually be found in the most active posters and in the least active posters. Occasionally you'll find one in the middle, but the top and bottom are the first places that I like to look.
Don't really have a good way to see how many posts everyone has made thus far, so I'm just going to guess based on memory and if I get something wrong don't hesitate to point it out. I might leave someone off of one of these lists.
The more frequent posters that have really made an impression on me are Lau, Dolby, Abigail and Ex. There may be some others in this tier, but those are the ones I remember seeing most often and I feel pretty confident in saying that at least 1 if not 2 scum members are in this group. None of them really stands out to me more than the others, with the exception of Abigail. She claimed early that she wouldn't be very active in the beginning because of car troubles, and she's still one of the top posters - which goes directly against what she said. Not a super hot take, but scum slips are often difficult to spot and often very minor contradictory statements. Is this one of those cases? Dunno. Just putting it out there to keep an eye on. Also found it odd that Ex voted for Abigail for saying that she favored mint chocolate chip ice cream. She's only one of many of us who named that flavor, but he only called her out for it. Why? Scum buddies trying to distance from one another or simply a case where they know each other pretty good and this type of back and forth is normal for them. I don't know either of them so can't judge it myself, perhaps someone who has more experience playing with both of them can weigh in on that angle.
Then we have the low tier posters. Moon, Gerrick and Captan Lunch are the bottom 3 posters I believe. And if I'm not mistaken, Captan Lunch hasn't made the first post yet. I did scroll through all the pages earlier to verify that and didn't see anything they had posted so I'm pretty sure that's accurate. If I were looking for scum laying low then that's the first vote I would go with. I'd have to go back to the signup thread to see if Captan is a Wintreath native or an exalted guest. If they're from another region then it's conceivable that they don't know the game started but if they're a native then I'd be much more likely to vote for them. (note to self: check that out tomorrow and vote for Captan if he's a native).
The only other person that I have uneasy feelings about at the moment is NoName. Here we have a player who is obviously trying to keep their true identity a secret. They said that they have played in the past with 6 of us, but refuse to tell us who they really are. Strikes me as someone with a meta that they aren't comfortable trying to counter. If they have obvious tells as a townie then why hide who they really are? Makes me think they randed scum and are worried that their play in previous games as a wolf would make it painfully obvious that they've drawn that role again. If Captan Lunch turns out to be a visitor rather than a native then NoName is probably going to get my vote today just because I don't trust someone who openly admits that they're hiding something from the rest of us. Town roles don't have any reason to hide information from each other, that's something that only the wolves need to concern themselves with. Also, if Lunch is a visitor then I'd have to look again at Moon and Gerrick to evaluate which of them I think is more likely to be a low laying scum.
That's pretty much all of my thoughts at the moment. Feel free to point out anything you think I got wrong. I like to think I'm decent at spotting wolves, but I'm certainly not infallible.
