View Topic

[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

@Vroendal
Forgive me for the long posts. It's just a huge pain trying to highlight what I need to on my phone to spoiler them. So I do appreciate you spoiler some stuff.


These are the relevant quotes of what I was talking about. The first seems to imply he thinks she is hinting at something, but be he hasn't watched the show he doesn't know what. If it were just confusion about a potential bit because of not having seen the show, I feel like he would have left off the bit about hinting at something. He then further emphasizes the fact by pointing out that Mel liked that post, implying that she is indeed hinting at something.

He then votes, but immediately unvotes because he "sees what she's getting at but probably not". Which seems like odd progression to me.

I get the feeling Mel is hinting at something, but as someone who hasn’t seen AoT, I don’t understand what.

Nah, Vote: Melehan.

Mel liked that? That's interesting...

Actually on second thought Unvote. Maybe I see what she's getting at. Probably not though tbh

The one thing keeping Red off my scumspects list is the fact that Red and cozmik are apparently IRL friends, and that this is cozmik's first game here. Red being super defensive of cozmik thus makes sense because I'm sure Red wants cozmik's first game with us to be fun.

This tbh. While I don't think cozmik is likely to be the sort to bail after if they got lynched day 1 - I have faith in the Standard Of Friend Red brings around these parts - I don't know that there's too much harm in giving a day 1 'we don't know each other and we might have a wildly different playstyle from what we're used to' moment to give time to get used to it.
Perhaps best exemplified by how cozmik seemed surprised we wanted to know their strat; like, duh we want to know at least, like, 80% of your strategy, scum wins when townies plays their cards too close to their chests. It'd be one thing if there were neutral roles in this - in which case, yeah, alright, fair play - but there aren't.
Ah well. Not really a major issue though since there was never enough of a pile to be really worth worrying about getting lynched over anyway.

Moving on; I find Minish's reasoning about Mones being a viable third wagon a little wobbly. It's looking like 4:3:2 Michi:Hapi:RM right now, and I expect the leading wagons will soon pick up a slew of votes (on the basis of 'just to tie it up', 'oh X person's argument convinced me', and then 'yeah leave it up to RNGesus') from the 10 who haven't voted yet (largely because in some cases, if they don't even speak we're likely going to be very collectively suspicious of a bunch of people trying to run under the radar).
Moot, I could see just starting a vanity wagon for the purposes of 'I don't really have a target but I'm not sold on either of the two on the chopping block', but joining another one? That's the sort of throw-chum-in-the-water move I might make if I had a scumbud up there and wanted to keep them safe without actively trying to defend them.

Wow, 4 posts after I wrote this up. Y'all...

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

Valid consideration using Moot's count (5:3), but given that Lau's count is 4:3 (and it's Inherently Most Reliable since he's the host) I frankly think it's basically an even split. Obviously as I said above, I think scum (in the even they haven't all already voted) will take advantage and pile onto the leading wagons with claims of 'wanting to tie things up' (which, unfortunately, works because it's also common townie reasoning which I've personally fallen for multiple times), but I don't know if a 1-vote or even 2-vote lead is enough to assume a scum pile (unless there's some aggressive fuckin powerwolves in there).

Moving on; I find Minish's reasoning about Mones being a viable third wagon a little wobbly. It's looking like 4:3:2 Michi:Hapi:RM right now, and I expect the leading wagons will soon pick up a slew of votes (on the basis of 'just to tie it up', 'oh X person's argument convinced me', and then 'yeah leave it up to RNGesus') from the 10 who haven't voted yet (largely because in some cases, if they don't even speak we're likely going to be very collectively suspicious of a bunch of people trying to run under the radar).

I didn't necessarily say it was viable but it had the potential to be. Just one more vote and it would be tied for second, just one vote behind the first place one. And wagons that close are good d1 because if one is potentially scum, then it's very likely a townie will be lynched still but it can give us potential insight into who scum is. Also multiple close wagons can tend to have at least one scum wagon. Spread out small wagons are all more likely town. Though keep in mind I'm used to playing games at are typically 12-13 people so it's a bit harder with a much bigger game.

I'd also just like to point out that the now rather substantial lead Michi has in votes at the moment speaks to me of a wolf pile in there somewhere. We're not so much at multiple wagons as we are seeing The Michi Wagon & The Stragglers.

For that reason, I don't believe Michi is actually scum, and I'd recommend looking closer at who has voted and still is voting for Michi up to this point.

Valid consideration using Moot's count (5:3), but given that Lau's count is 4:3 (and it's Inherently Most Reliable since he's the host) I frankly think it's basically an even split. Obviously as I said above, I think scum (in the even they haven't all already voted) will take advantage and pile onto the leading wagons with claims of 'wanting to tie things up' (which, unfortunately, works because it's also common townie reasoning which I've personally fallen for multiple times), but I don't know if a 1-vote or even 2-vote lead is enough to assume a scum pile (unless there's some aggressive fuckin powerwolves in there).

I was looking at Moot's list when I posted that, but also, I suspect that there is an aggressive powerwolf abouts. I'm not sure if that's the migraine talking, but there have been a number of interesting reactions so far that seem to point to it, to me.

I don't know what happened to most that quoted post, but I'm blaming the migraine + mobile.

x_x

The urge to edit other people's formatting errors is very strong this game. Very very strong.

The urge to edit my own errors is very strong this game, especially since there's been so many. Formatting, names, genders - nothing is safe!

I ask everyone remembers but one thing: Migraine!Mel Makes Mistakes

So many mistakes.

I was looking at Moot's list when I posted that, but also, I suspect that there is an aggressive powerwolf abouts. I'm not sure if that's the migraine talking, but there have been a number of interesting reactions so far that seem to point to it, to me.

I think I agree, though I wouldn't know who yet. Minish definitely has the capability to pull it off but I'm not set on anything yet. :/


@Ruguo I need a new perspective, do you have any thoughts you're willing to share on RM, a link between cozmik and RM, Moot's vote, Minish's vote, or anything else at this time?

Valid consideration using Moot's count (5:3), but given that Lau's count is 4:3 (and it's Inherently Most Reliable since he's the host) I frankly think it's basically an even split.

I haven't really read the new posts yet, but I noticed this...my count was from before Minish unvoted from Michi and voted for RM instead, while Lau's is after. I believe that's the difference in our counts.

Melehan's Second Original Post

You can go ahead and edit, Mel.

charge your phone
it's low

Y'all have a little over 10 hours left in this phase.

The one thing keeping Red off my scumspects list is the fact that Red and cozmik are apparently IRL friends, and that this is cozmik's first game here. Red being super defensive of cozmik thus makes sense because I'm sure Red wants cozmik's first game with us to be fun.

This tbh. While I don't think cozmik is likely to be the sort to bail after if they got lynched day 1 - I have faith in the Standard Of Friend Red brings around these parts - I don't know that there's too much harm in giving a day 1 'we don't know each other and we might have a wildly different playstyle from what we're used to' moment to give time to get used to it.
Perhaps best exemplified by how cozmik seemed surprised we wanted to know their strat; like, duh we want to know at least, like, 80% of your strategy, scum wins when townies plays their cards too close to their chests. It'd be one thing if there were neutral roles in this - in which case, yeah, alright, fair play - but there aren't.
Ah well. Not really a major issue though since there was never enough of a pile to be really worth worrying about getting lynched over anyway.

Who knows getting lynched D1 might make her love Werewolf here more but decide the game is better played by memeing and sowing general chaos and discontent for the lulz because you get murdered if you actually try to play the game around here :hapisip:

Anyways weather new or not weather a friend or not this is first and foremost a game and we should play it without taking any of that into consideration if someone decides not to continue playing cause the game was played and they died even D1 in their first game they shouldn't be playing. Like this is Werewolf and any suspicious activity will be noted.

I think the feathers have already been ruffled.

His statements "defending" cozmik wasn't even exactly defending her, but more exposing what I agree was hypocrisy in Mel's readlist and pushing back against Hapi's lack of strong reasoning.

Yeah, I didn't even vote for either Mel (after she posted the read list) or Hapi. I'm not necessarily going for a lynch or even accusing them of being scum, just trying to get more information.

Snip from Moot about me being certain

But the biggest thing that felt off was @Red Mones's defense of cozmik. I know they're friends and he invited her here, but he seems so certain that she shouldn't be suspect because she's new (very odd since a new player was the wolf in our last game that he hosted), and at this point the only people who can be certain of the roles are the wolves.

Snip from Minish about me being certain

But really, as of my post it was that I felt he was defending people as if he were in an informed position. It didn't sound like unsure town thoughts. It felt much more certain.

I just did an ISO of Red so I could see his progress all together instead of at game pace. The thing that I was picking up on was with cozmik actually. It was that he was pushing the "y'all are gonna mislynch newb town" in a way that I felt came from scum knowing cozmik is town and trying to get easy town cred. Granted, they do seem to know each other irl, so I could see how he would he more likely to have that feeling towards someone he personally knows. However cozmik later said she's not exactly new to mafia so it seems a little odd for Red to use that reasoning.

The point about me being certain is fair, but I'm coming from the perspective of knowing them IRL. They're brand new to forum werewolf which is a whole different ballgame, so they're new as far as I'm concerned.

All while she was voting for him, too...one doesn't usually defend someone who is voting to have you killed.

I mean, it was a joke vote. If people started pushing against Hapi (who also joke-voted me) and I felt their reasoning wasn't strong, I would 'defend' Hapi and ask for more information from those voters. These initial votes don't really fit into my thinking at all.

He then votes, but immediately unvotes because he "sees what she's getting at but probably not". Which seems like odd progression to me.

The flip-flopping is classic townie Red. Ask @Gerrick, he brought it up in summersend WW, so I know he's aware of my meta. Mel also mentions it:

Red's vote flip-flopping is pretty consistent with townie Red, at least based off the games we've played together.

If you're referencing how a quiet BSR is usually a scummy BSR, I definitely noticed that.

I don't see it. He was very lurky/inactive in 23 when I hosted. I don't remember if/when I've played with him though, so I may be assigning a ton of weight to an outlier case.

Also, one more point coming from the perspective of me being scum: I, and others here, know my meta (the flip-floppiness), so if I were sucm and trying to replicate that, I wouldn't mix and match the certainty of someone being new, and the flip-flop with Mel.