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[Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?]

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes

7 (87.5%)

No

1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM

Wow that really wrecked my hope lol. I'm now quite disappointed

@Doc, thoughts?

That went from 'it's open and shut, Gerrick and Moot' to 'well it's probably Moot but it's a tossup who's Mystery Fourth Scum' pretty quick.

That said, I may be tunneling again but I do find it particularly interesting that Gerrick's absolutely exploded in activity now though, with 13 posts in this day phase out of a total of 50 posts in the whole thread. Making 26% of his posts in one day alone - and in D9 to boot - seems strikingly out of character compared to how it's been for the rest of this thread, which is what I'd expect from a Titan who'd been heretofore attempting to fly under the radar but is now being lined up on the PoE chopping block.

For comparability (organized in terms of my suslist, with Gerrick slotted in in either 2nd or 3rd last place),
I'm not touching either LoS or Ex with a 50 foot pole for a postcount. I ain't finna count through 500 posts each, but their posting patterns certainly seem well within normal-for-this-game parameters.
Including this post, I've made 10 posts of my 60 total (17%) in this day phase.
Red has made 14 posts of his 137 total (10%) this day phase.
Nyght has made 19 posts out of 65 total (29%) this day phase.
Moot has made 4 posts out of his 29 total (14%) this day phase.

This is unfortunately not as conclusive as I thought it was gonna be when I started, mostly on the basis of a big splat of double and triple-posts from Nyght from within the last hour or two, but I think going in and smashing double/triple posts together in this analysis runs the risk of just winding up being the equivalent of p-hacking it to get the results I want.

-snip-

Your hypothesis hinges on us not hitting the Armored Titan if we mislynch today and wind up in lylo. Which is essentially a 50-50 gamble.
It'd be one thing if we still had a defender, cause we'd have the added bonus of maaaaaaybe blocking an NK and keeping our numbers stable. But we don't.

The only issue is that this doesn't account for the armoured titan. Hitting it would be the same as hitting a townsperson,  effectively. We could probably solve that issue by lynching from least to most likely to be armoured titan though.

If we can clear two people fully (those probably being ExLight and Doc) then that strategy will win us the game.

oh he said this already well tough i wanted to document that I also thought this through, sorry, i took an hour on this post

Yeah my hypothesis didn't even consider the armored titan at all since I completely forgot they existed. Doc, who would you like to see lynched today?

It seems like for the most part there's a consensus read of Moot as scum. So why not pick the low-hanging fruit first, then worry about who Mystery Fourth Scum is after we find out whether we're in lylo or not?
Either he's the AT and we are, or he isn't and we aren't.

Unvote

Thinking about who I want to lynch myself, I actually liked Nyght's defence.

Well I have to check out for the evening. I've gotten really stressed this last splat. I let things get to me and taken things I shouldn't have personally.

I'm assuming I'm gonna get hammered by Ex and Moot. I wish I could say I'm proud of how I played. But I'm not. 

 I hope y'all can sus out those last two wolves before they clinch a win. I'd keep my Eyes on Gerrick. He hopped on me faster than a bare door jack rabbit on a hot greasy griddle in the middle of july.

That being said,

Vote: Gerrick[/u

In the words of mother RuPaul, "Good luck, and don't...Fuck it up."

Well yeah, my activity jumped up because I was excited that I had finally been cleared and so we had the two wolves narrowed down to just finish this off. That didn't happen -- and in fact the opposite happened where I suddenly became viewed as one of the most suspicious -- so I had to both defend myself and lay out my case of who I think are the wolves.

And I don't think we should lynch Wintermoot first if he's the Armored Titan as that's a waste of a lynch. It makes more sense to lynch the other titan, right?

And why would Moot hammer you, Nyght, when he said he was null-reading you and that he thought Doc and I were more suspicious? Distancing much?

Well why do you think Moot's the armored titan?

Well yeah, my activity jumped up because I was excited that I had finally been cleared and so we had the two wolves narrowed down to just finish this off. That didn't happen -- and in fact the opposite happened where I suddenly became viewed as one of the most suspicious -- so I had to both defend myself and lay out my case of who I think are the wolves.

And I don't think we should lynch Wintermoot first if he's the Armored Titan as that's a waste of a lynch. It makes more sense to lynch the other titan, right?

And why would Moot hammer you, Nyght, when he said he was null-reading you and that he thought Doc and I were more suspicious? Distancing much?

When I was writing that I already had 2 votes so I assumed y'all would go for an easy lynch. Defensive much?

Okay. I'm honestly done. I'll check in later on but I need some time away.

Goddamn, if you're not a wolf, Nyght, that's gonna make the biggest asshole. Ugggh

*make me

Also as I said before, I think Wintermoot's the armored titan since he was at the bottom of everyone's list. The only reason he would be at the bottom of the other titan's list is because he's unlynchable and so that'd give them easy town cred.

In other news, though, if the two wolves are within the three (Moot, Gerrick, Nyght), even if we mislynch today, it's a guaranteed win for town if we all focus on the same person each round.

Today it's 5:2. We lynch someone (say, Nyght) and they turn out to be town. It's now 4:2.

Wolves get a successful kill, and it becomes 3:2 for the next day. If the other two (Moot and Gerrick for this example) are our wolves, we lynch one, and it becomes 3:1

Wolves get a successfull kill, and it becomes 2:1 for the next day. Town lynches the last wolf and we win.

Problem is, this is assuming the last two wolves are within that 3-member group, and given this game, and can't say anything with certainty.

Any thoughts guys?

If this is the case, then we can just lynch anybody without much care, but again, this is based on an assumption.

It’s not that simple because we have to lynch the non armored titan. If we mislynch today and lynch the armored one the next Day we still lose, I think.