Poll

Do you want to start lynching by majority this round?

Yes
7 (87.5%)
No
1 (12.5%)

Total Members Voted: 8

Voting closed: February 24, 2021, 10:57:44 AM


Pages: 1 ... 84 [85] 86 ... 123

Werewolf 24: Attack on Titan
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Wintermoot
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  • For now I will vote: Doc, because I believe that the case against him is getting stronger and stronger. To restate that case...he basically foreshadowed what ended up happening between TGN and Ruguo, yet his actions were the opposite of what he claimed that situation would mean when he stated it. He strongly pushed a TGN/Vro wolf connection across multiple turns that didn't pan out, at least when it comes to TGN. Now we learn that that he's been on every winning wagon in the game so far except for the one that ended up being the wolf.

    As far as Werewolf goes, I think that's a fairly strong case. Hopefully I can make at least another post or two before the end of the extended phase, so I'm not saying it's a final vote.

    I think the BSR post where he casted suspicion on two people who are proven town now is interesting, but I would like to hear more (and if I missed more in his case than I'd like to see it and apologize).

    I don't necessarily find Michi suspicious or not suspicious, but I can confirm that he's had issues with low-quality internet that's being aggravated by weather, so his inactivity at the moment in itself isn't suspicious to me.

    I’m not going to be here listening people sussing me when I pinkie promised  being town. I don’t think yall realize how much I value that. umu
    Doesn't it defeat the purpose of the game if you have a way to make it obvious and certain to everyone that you're town? If everyone did that...well, we'd have no game. :P

    Moot: Quite suspicious voting , total disregard for PR softening .
    I've already explained my vote on Sapphiron, and continue to be amazed that "I'm worth more to town dead than alive" should be taken to mean so much from someone that was in danger of being killed off. It could just as easily have been said from a wolf trying to save their ass...Ex and his pinkie promises aside, there's no guarantee that someone is being honest when they say something like that, especially when they have a motive to say anything to keep from being killed.

    Also the fact that Moot tried to pull Doc into the scum soup , seems strange to me, because I feel Sapph indicated TGN , and he used that possibly to prevent his own lynch and get TGN wagon running . Doc doesn't seem an issue.
    Doc: Sapph said about consecutive wolf possibility , which makes me feel Doc might be a scum. This is a weak lead to me though , but there is no harm in mentioning.
    So is that that he might be scum or that he doesn't seem an issue? Funny that you seem to change your mind on Doc when you decide that being suspicious of him is a reason for suspicion. I have repeatedly posted my reasoning (which didn't even include the fact that he was on every town wagon and not on the 1 wolf wagon, which someone only realized today), and there was more to it than simply what Sapph said.

    Maybe the softening was too soft that it seemed scum , but it was NOT a risk worth taking as a townie i would say
    When was it ever going to be worth tasking a risk? It's not like we were ever going to know for sure...at the end of the day, no matter when the vote came up, you were either going to believe that Sapph was hinting at being a power role or throwing out a generic defense to save his ass. I feel like what you're saying is an easy thing to say in hindsight when we know the result, not so much at the moment that it's happening.

    Quote
    , and the fact that Moot has been a discussion topic everyday and has not been a topic while voting makes me feel that scums are diluting suspicion that has accumulated on him , so the early wagon might work as a reminder , "OK, so its time to bring in Moot now on the voting table from the discussion table. "
    Isn't this the reasoning that was used with TGN this game, or Vro early on last game?

    -Wintermoot: I agree with him about Sapphiron's D3 softing being so soft it could be wolfy (partly why I didn't switch to defend Sapph). His comments on Doc's TGN-Ruguo/TGN-Vro connection theories, however, aren't really straight as he defends TGN D2 and D3 (saying he's just immature and Ruguo being wolf clears him as town per Doc's theory) then votes for him D4, although his reasoning on D4 could sorta makes sense in that he wanted to expose a possible distancing attempt by Doc from TGN and didn't want to start a vanity wagon against Doc right before EoD when TGN's and Kane's wagons were tied (he did start such a vanity wagon on D5, though, but I suppose he didn't need to vote Kane (the only other larger wagon) since his wagon was much smaller than Kane's and Kane didn't look particularly scummy to me).
    During the last few days I've only been able to contribute late in the phase, and given the number of people to consider and being so late to reply, I thought it would be wise to vote on one of the existing wagons because it was too late to make a difference otherwise...first Sapph vs TGN, then TGN vs Kane, and if we want to extend it to yesterday Kane vs myself. In the first two cases I think I even said if I had to choose between the two of them when voting. I know I'm town (talk about generic defenses, lol), and I didn't suspect Kane at all (and now we know he was town), so I had no choice but to vote for someone else and I returned to my previous philosophy of voting for the person I feel is most suspicious regardless.

    But the fact of the matter, everyone that's been wagoned toward the end of the last three days has been proven to be town (except for me, of course), and now I feel my logic in voting on existing wagons over people I feel to be more suspicious was incorrect.
    1 person likes this post: Gerrick


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    Legacy of Smiles
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  • Man, there goes my evening. Updated reads list based on ISOs, laid out generally from most townie to most scummy. Put questions at the end of most players' bits to ask what they think about certain players who they were sussing earlier in the game -- those who they this day phase already talked about I did not include.

    Town Lean
    -Legacy of Smiles: Has been giving their thoughts on people and doing a lot of poking people to get their thoughts on others, which is very good for town. Thoughts on cozmikrae?
    -Red Mones: Helped lead the Ruguo wagon D2, and I personally think was cleared by Sapph’s poem. Don’t like his very sharp drop in posts since D2, but it’s understandable with how active the game is. Thoughts on Vro and Michi?
    -ExLight: Really don’t like his pinkie promise thing, but other than that, he’s been the most active person and has been scum-hunting and poking people, which is good for town.
    -Doc: Has led the wagons on both TGN and Kane, who both flipped town, but he’s been actively scum-hunting and helpful. Hasn’t been throwing shit aggressively at people or lying really low like I’d expect from scum Doc, which reads town to me. Thoughts on Vro and Michi?
    -NyghtOwl: Seems new, has been trying to get a hang of the game, and has been giving his thoughts on players and asking how others are thinking. Thoughts on Wintermoot, BSR, and Vro?
    -Vroendal: Really don't like his D1 unvote, but besides that, he's been scum-hunting and poking people, which I like. Thoughts on Michi and BSR?
    -Wischland: Hasn’t been very active, but has been laying out her thoughts on several different players throughout the game and reads pretty genuine to me. Thoughts on BSR and cozmik?

    Null
    -Anubhav Ghosh: Has been kinda all over the place in his suspicions of people and hasn’t been stating who his town-reads are, which is scummy to me, but at least he’s been very actively scum-hunting. He’s new, so if he is scum, he’s pretty good at it. Almost at town-lean.
    -BraveSirRobin: Don’t like his lurkiness in the first few days, but his posts have improved in quality recently and generally read town to me. Was going to put him in town lean until his D5 clearing of cozmikrae based on WIFOM, especially since I’m suspicious of her. Note that three of his four suspects (Minish, Kane, TGN, and Wintermoot) have all died and flipped town. Thoughts on Vro and Wintermoot?
    -Wintermoot: I agree with him about Sapphiron's D3 softing being so soft it could be wolfy (partly why I didn't switch to defend Sapph). His comments on Doc's TGN-Ruguo/TGN-Vro connection theories, however, aren't really straight as he defends TGN D2 and D3 (saying he's just immature and Ruguo being wolf clears him as town per Doc's theory) then votes for him D4, although his reasoning on D4 could sorta makes sense in that he wanted to expose a possible distancing attempt by Doc from TGN and didn't want to start a vanity wagon against Doc right before EoD when TGN's and Kane's wagons were tied (he did start such a vanity wagon on D5, though, but I suppose he didn't need to vote Kane (the only other larger wagon) since his wagon was much smaller than Kane's and Kane didn't look particularly scummy to me). Thoughts on Doc and Vro?

    Scum Lean
    -Michi: Said he hates meta-votes D1 then defends TGN D2 based on meta, votes for completely inactive (Alexander). Seems like a good amount of his posts have been talking about werewolf in general without giving his thoughts on players or scum-hunting – only player he’s accused is BSR. Has only voted on Days 2 (against Alexander then Ruguo) and 4 (against BSR). Thoughts on BSR?
    -cozmikrae: Placed Ruguo in a “less than sus” group on her earlyish D2 reads-list with other people she town-read, but later switched when the tide began to turn. Other suspicious actions I laid out on D4. Said she was “completely convinced” TGN was town on D5 (the day after he was lynched) and yet didn’t make a case in his defense but rather for lynching Kane on D4. Maybe I’m tunneling, but she’s still my top scum-read.

    Vote: cozmikrae

    Sorry for the late response, I should be free now. Did a quick ISO on cozmik because I wasn't confident on my read on their slot any more and this is where I got to:

    Overall, I like her D1. Not afraid to be confrontational and definitely drawing attention to herself (this seems purposeful?).  Biggest issue is the initial push on Red as well as arguments with Mel / Hapi (and voting Hapi). I think she has w/w potential with Michi for not really interacting with / mentioning him despite being a major wagon that day. Still getting towny vibes here though.

    Her reads list is the first place I have major issues, particularly the "might be sus" category really only containing wanting to lynch D1 (which is a good play) as the only reason those people are there, feels like a bit of a lazy way to separate people and make the list look good without saying much. There are a couple of reads that stand out to me as being different to the others, those being Doc (who she seems to take a more apologetic tone with - screams distancing here). Reads on Ruguo and Sapphiron stand out because don't seem to match the explanations given, not sure what to think of this in terms of alignment but it suggests a lack of time or confidence when making the list.

    D2 voting suggests that she is never w/w with Vroendel.

    Vote for Ruguo fairly early is a good look.

    Don't think she would have killed Melehan N2 unless pushed by team. If she flips red, Mel was probably scumreading at least one other wolf.

    Progression on TGN between D2 and D3 doesn't feel natural and I don't like it, especially after TGN flipped town. Note the sus on Doc but unwillingness to vote.


    "So I was feeling like Vro's quick decision to unvote and leave it to a coinflip was suspicious." - quote taken from the Day cozmik's unvote is responsible for killing Sapphiron.

    I actually agree a lot with her take on the BSR situation on D3 and I think pointing it out is.

    Read on TGN is so inconsistent that I actually believe it's towny. Worried that, in my eyes, pretty much everyone cozmik has sussed with the possible exception of Vro (who I TR) and obviously Ruguo are almost certainly all town. Actually think the sus on ExLight is towny because while it's a bad sus, it shows a lot of self confidence and willingness to confront active players.

    For reasons previously stated, the D3 EoD unvote was awful and very little explanation was given until after Sapphiron flipped. If she flips red, she clearly has a partner who realised the Sapphiron was softing (Doc or Wintermoot would be top picks to me).

    Probably not w/w with Gerrick after today either.

    HD kill and resulting WIFOM may or may not be a good look depending on who the rest of the scum are. Would review this kill after we red flip somebody else if cozmik is alive and we have no good read on her. Don't agree with BSR clearing her on this, don't think he would do it if they were w/w either.

    So to cap it off with an overall read: I think she's done a lot of things I see as wolfy, I think the unvote that caused the Sapphiron lynch in particular is a huge red flag, but her overall tone is good and especially her day 1 was super towny. I'll keep her in null, I won't vote here today but I would probably vote her immediately if Doc flipped red and would consider it after a moot/Michi red flip.
    3 people like this post: Vroendal, ExLight, Gerrick
    Legacy of Smiles
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  • I’m not going to be here listening people sussing me when I pinkie promised  being town. I don’t think yall realize how much I value that. umu
    Doesn't it defeat the purpose of the game if you have a way to make it obvious and certain to everyone that you're town? If everyone did that...well, we'd have no game. :P
    Nah lol it improves town’s winning chances very slightly but that’s about it. Not really game breaking, and the objective of finding scum still happens pretty much unaltered

    I’ll read what’s going on here. Sorry about not being active today, yesterday was my brother’s birthday and my mental health just pummeled to the ground today. Not having a PC doesn’t help either umu
    I might steal his iPad later though lmao.
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  • Also, I'd hope you'd realize that I'd be a smart enough wolf to not kill those that I was "suspicious" of in the game.  Like that's textbook wolf suicide stuff, and
    Not only that is WIFOM but it would also be a team decision, not solely yours. If they felt like this would improve your chances of not getting lynched then why not?

    Well, shit. Check out this posts from BSR:

    I'm not opposed to a Kane or a Moot lynch (see my reasoning from earlier and general sus-edness of Moot, Minish and Kane), but because one might come with some good info last minute, I'll vote for the smaller wagon (Moot) at the present time because I have no idea when EOD is

    Vote: Wintermoot
    2/3 of those flipped town.

    Wintermoot - 3 (Anubhav Ghosh, BraveSirRobin, NyghtOwl)
    @BraveSirRobin has dropped to the very bottom of my list now. Anything to say? You're now my vote for today.

    This is good. This is how we caught Ruguo out too.
    Well here's some more voting history then:

    D1: No vote from BSR
    D2: Didn't vote for the Ruguo wagon
    D3: Voted for a townie wagon (TGN over Sapph, claimed they knew Sapph was a PR based on his hints. This is a pretty easy situation for scum. Get some town cred for not voting Sapph, but still mislynch a townie no matter who dies)
    D4: Votes for TGN again, a townie

    This is all circumstantial though, and it assumes Moot is town, but if we assume BSR is scum, then these actions make perfect sense.
    Hmm, I kinda like this actually. It doesn’t necessarily exclude Moot from being scumbuds because since it was a smaller wagon it was mildly safe, though, but I agree that makes him more likely to be Town.

    If Moot is Town that reinforces my scumread on Vro too since I strongly believe in one scum between them. Yes this tunnel is still going.
    1 person likes this post: Red Mones
    ExLight
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  • Does it really not bother anyone that Vro has been liking posts back and forth despite showing that his not properly reading quite a few of them, and that he mostly posts just to defend himself and to sheep on wagons?

    and the stuff from D1 that he pulled off

    like
    it’s screams scummy to me and I really don’t understand why people are townreading him, can the people townreading him explain to me? is it gut feeling?

    I’m like 72% sure he’s scum

    don’t even reply to this with a wall post Vro use that energy to make a readlist and if you OMGUS me I’ll get mad yeet
    ExLight
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  • if someone could reorder the votes of the previous votecounts in chronological order and add who didn’t vote that would be great and super townie wink wink
    ExLight
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  • Sorry for the multiple posts, just catching up lol.

    Reminder that Vro jumped into BSR’s defense D1 with that whole “if Michi flips scum then BSR is likely scum” prolly hoping to lynch Michi who is townie imo and kinda fallacy clear BSR in the process. Funny enough later on D3 and D4 he completely drops that and scumreads BSR but not Michi, which makes me a bit confused actually.

    Doc used something similar to kinda clear Vro upon TGN’s flip, so him insisting on that recently kinda makes me raise some eyebrows too.

    BSR/Vro/Doc
    Pretty decent chance of scum here with smaller chance of buds and Vro flipping probably gives the most information but I’d be fine with any of these, although I’d keep some skepticism if the lynch seems too easy since scum prolly is able to influence votes significantly by now.

    I might also give a second look at Gerrick since that’s who Minish was kinda keeping an eye when she died, her logic did make sense so she might’ve been onto something. We should prolly compare her reads with HD’s to see if they were killed because they were either on the right track or because they’re considered high skill players.
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    Vroendal
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    Town Core -
    Red - Am still town reading from his actions D1 and 2, has done nothing that has pinged me.
    ExLight - Has been poking and scum-hunting, also I believe the pinkie promise, sue me.
    Legacy - Scum-hunting, contributes to discussions, has advocated for what I feel are town-motivated takes.
    Anubhav - Has contributed form his own perspective, which reads townie to me, tone is townie.

    Town Lean -
    Nyght - I'm still town-reading from pokes and general tone.
    cozmik - I think her posts have sounded genuine, her pokes also jive with what I think is a townie mindset.
    Gerrick - Has had rather unique views, I'm growing more wary as the thread progresses but I still am really liking the high effort he's been putting in his posts, he's thorough and that's good for town.

    Nulls -
    Doc/BSR/Michi - These three I'm not even sure what to think about anymore, Doc has pushed a fabricated connection between me and TGN, but his posts have felt more townie than his wolf game in LOTR, BSR has had some really good late-game posts, but I'm scared because I'm town-reading other people more so he's still in my PoE, Michi had a rough start, but I still don't think scum Michi would give up the game D2 like he did.
    Wischland - Has had less impact on the game than the other players, I've been liking her reads and posts, but I'm not seeing as many as I might expect from her anymore, and it feels like she's been lying low.

    Scum Lean -
    Wintermoot - The Sapph vote still doesn't jive for me, I have it in my mind that one of Sapph's voters has to be a wolf (Minish, Imaginative Kane, TGN, Wintermoot, Legacy of Smiles, Human Dawn), guess what, everyone else except a general thread Town Core read (Legacy) is dead. Moot has also not had a lot of impact on the game as a result of his lower post count, which may not be AI in this case but it's still something to consider as many of the more active players have been town read either previously or currently.

    I'm not voting Moot quite yet, my head is not in the game right now, I need time to think. This reads list has been re-done from when I was town-leaning most of them from earlier.
    2 people like this post: ExLight, Legacy of Smiles
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  • Reminder that Vro jumped into BSR’s defense D1 with that whole “if Michi flips scum then BSR is likely scum” prolly hoping to lynch Michi who is townie imo and kinda fallacy clear BSR in the process. Funny enough later on D3 and D4 he completely drops that and scumreads BSR but not Michi, which makes me a bit confused actually.
    My attack on BSR was motivated from the very few read opportunities I had on BSR, from D1 I had seen a possible Michi/BSR scum connection, but if Michi was town that didn't clear BSR by the logic I used. By D3/4 I had been town-reading Michi from his approach and tone, and my PoE was closing. BSR was still a major worry for me.
    1 person likes this post: ExLight
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    ExLight
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  • I actually like your readlist (maybe because it’s a bit similar to mine lmao) and the post justifying stuff. Hmm.

    I need to check when BSR voted you D2, but I feel you might not to be buddies.

    Vote: BraveSirRobin

    For now this, but I’ll still keep an eye on you.
    1 person likes this post: Vroendal
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    Doc
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  • The format is as follows;
    Wagon Target: Voter 1 (vote number #, [information about when unvote was made]), Voter 2 (vote number #), Voter 3 (vote number #)...; provisional votes (votes which were made but later withdrawn are also included to see voting patterns
    Additional formatting information: Bold is for that day's lynch, strikeouts are for votes that were later withdrawn, red is for people who flipped scum, green is for people who flipped town.

    D1 votes:
    Red Mones: Hapi (1), Cozmikrae (4, unvotes after 16), Wintermoot (20), Minish (21, unvotes to vote Michi)
    Hapi: Red Mones (2, unvotes to vote Melehan), Melehan (3), Nyght (13), Doc (16), Cozmikrae (23)
    Wintermoot: Nyght (5, unvotes to vote Hapi)
    Doc: Ruguo (6, unvotes to vote Michi)
    Vroendal: Sapphiron (7)
    Michi: Gerrick (8 ), Vroendal (11, unvotes after 23), Ruguo (12), Wischland (17), Minish (19, unvotes to vote Red Mones), Minish (22), Vroendal (24, unvotes after 25)
    Sapphiron: TGN (9, 'Unvotes Michi' after vote 12, then properly unvotes after vote 16)
    Melehan: Red Mones (10, immediately unvotes next post)
    No Lynch: Kane (14, changes to vote BSR)
    Cozmikrae: Hapi (15)
    BSR: Kane (18)
    Ruguo: Red Mones (25)

    No EOD Votes:
    Michi
    BraveSirRobin
    TGN
    Dawcreek (replaced by Anubhav Ghosh D2)
    Ogun of Valeria (replaced by LegacyOfSmiles D3)
    Alexander Valentine (replaced by Exlight D3)
    Eastern New England (replaced by Humandawn D3)

    Still intending to do the other days but on balance it's a long-ass post anyway, so might as well break it up into a series of smaller ones and hear people's thoughts.
    The thing that stands out to me that, as best as I can tell isn't much commented on, is the late-day flurry of vote-withdraw-vote on Michi.
    That sparks some new interest in Vro for me. Unclear if it will keep playing out in future days, since up to this point my analysis has been on the wagons' end-state rather than how they evolved over time, and more to the point that's also behavior that Minish did so it might not even be AI.
    (Full disclosure: I'd forgotten that Minish flipped town until I went back down the list so I was about to hammer down on Minish and Vro with a 'this conduct is sus as fuck' before realizing 'wait...that's only 7 dead, but something on Discord told me scum landed a NK' and checking.)

    also: jfc there are over 1000 instances of the word 'vote' in the print thread view option, aaaaaagh this is so much work
    1 person likes this post: ExLight
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    Wischland
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  • I wish I could contribute more, but I honestly don't really have anything new to say and I feel bad adding onto the already massive number of posts with a "yeah what they said". So here's a reads list, in rainbow, based entirely off of my memory, gut feelings, and the arguments other people have made.

    Wisch
    Red Mones - Ruguo vote, helpful posts. As scum would probably have seized chance to be town leader, which has not happened.
    ExLight - All the analysis, lots of digging, drives the discussion to the benefit of town
    Anubhav Ghosh - Been more active recently with original thoughts. Doesn't really seem connected to anyone.
    Legacy of Smiles - Has also been leading discussion, and style/timing of their posting makes me think more of town checking in rather than scum looking for the right time to chime in.
    NyghtOwl - Still feel good about them based on their posts earlier in the game. I'd like to see them post more, but I'm hardly one to talk and I understand that this is a lot.
    Gerrick - has made some pretty solid posts with good reasoning lately. I'm a little wary that he may scum trying to take more control of the narrative, but his posts seem to follow towny logic, so he's here for now.
    Doc - Has developed multiple original theories and doesn't really seem connected to anyone else. Leaning town.
    Michi - Has been quiet, but I get it. Has been pretty consistent throughout though, with their focus on BSR rather than trying to sneak into bandwagons so that seems more town.
    Vroendal - I started the game feeling really good about Vro, but the more people poke at Vro the more I struggle to maintain that good impression. Also I feel like they've made less substantial posts lately, which is a weird change of pace.
    Wintermoot - Their posts have been logical and well-reasoned but always seem to lead to a different conclusion than everyone else's posts. While not inherently bad, it does seem a little off.
    Cozmikrae - I haven't 100% been able to follow all the arguments here, but I recognize there was some sus stuff in voting and I can't recall any significant defense.
    BSR - Started the game pushing hard against Vro for several day phases, without actually voting for Vro. But now that Vro seems more threatened by a potential lynch, BSR makes mention of Vro and votes for Wintermoot. If BSR is scum then I wouldn't be surprised if Vro is too.


    2 people like this post: Legacy of Smiles, ExLight
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    Anubhav Ghosh
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  • For now I will vote: Doc, because I believe that the case against him is getting stronger and stronger. To restate that case...he basically foreshadowed what ended up happening between TGN and Ruguo, yet his actions were the opposite of what he claimed that situation would mean when he stated it. He strongly pushed a TGN/Vro wolf connection across multiple turns that didn't pan out, at least when it comes to TGN. Now we learn that that he's been on every winning wagon in the game so far except for the one that ended up being the wolf.

    As far as Werewolf goes, I think that's a fairly strong case. Hopefully I can make at least another post or two before the end of the extended phase, so I'm not saying it's a final vote.

    I think the BSR post where he casted suspicion on two people who are proven town now is interesting, but I would like to hear more (and if I missed more in his case than I'd like to see it and apologize).

    I don't necessarily find Michi suspicious or not suspicious, but I can confirm that he's had issues with low-quality internet that's being aggravated by weather, so his inactivity at the moment in itself isn't suspicious to me.

    I’m not going to be here listening people sussing me when I pinkie promised  being town. I don’t think yall realize how much I value that. umu
    Doesn't it defeat the purpose of the game if you have a way to make it obvious and certain to everyone that you're town? If everyone did that...well, we'd have no game. :P

    Moot: Quite suspicious voting , total disregard for PR softening .
    I've already explained my vote on Sapphiron, and continue to be amazed that "I'm worth more to town dead than alive" should be taken to mean so much from someone that was in danger of being killed off. It could just as easily have been said from a wolf trying to save their ass...Ex and his pinkie promises aside, there's no guarantee that someone is being honest when they say something like that, especially when they have a motive to say anything to keep from being killed.

    Also the fact that Moot tried to pull Doc into the scum soup , seems strange to me, because I feel Sapph indicated TGN , and he used that possibly to prevent his own lynch and get TGN wagon running . Doc doesn't seem an issue.
    Doc: Sapph said about consecutive wolf possibility , which makes me feel Doc might be a scum. This is a weak lead to me though , but there is no harm in mentioning.
    So is that that he might be scum or that he doesn't seem an issue? Funny that you seem to change your mind on Doc when you decide that being suspicious of him is a reason for suspicion. I have repeatedly posted my reasoning (which didn't even include the fact that he was on every town wagon and not on the 1 wolf wagon, which someone only realized today), and there was more to it than simply what Sapph said.

    Maybe the softening was too soft that it seemed scum , but it was NOT a risk worth taking as a townie i would say
    When was it ever going to be worth tasking a risk? It's not like we were ever going to know for sure...at the end of the day, no matter when the vote came up, you were either going to believe that Sapph was hinting at being a power role or throwing out a generic defense to save his ass. I feel like what you're saying is an easy thing to say in hindsight when we know the result, not so much at the moment that it's happening.

    Quote
    , and the fact that Moot has been a discussion topic everyday and has not been a topic while voting makes me feel that scums are diluting suspicion that has accumulated on him , so the early wagon might work as a reminder , "OK, so its time to bring in Moot now on the voting table from the discussion table. "
    Isn't this the reasoning that was used with TGN this game, or Vro early on last game?

    -Wintermoot: I agree with him about Sapphiron's D3 softing being so soft it could be wolfy (partly why I didn't switch to defend Sapph). His comments on Doc's TGN-Ruguo/TGN-Vro connection theories, however, aren't really straight as he defends TGN D2 and D3 (saying he's just immature and Ruguo being wolf clears him as town per Doc's theory) then votes for him D4, although his reasoning on D4 could sorta makes sense in that he wanted to expose a possible distancing attempt by Doc from TGN and didn't want to start a vanity wagon against Doc right before EoD when TGN's and Kane's wagons were tied (he did start such a vanity wagon on D5, though, but I suppose he didn't need to vote Kane (the only other larger wagon) since his wagon was much smaller than Kane's and Kane didn't look particularly scummy to me).
    During the last few days I've only been able to contribute late in the phase, and given the number of people to consider and being so late to reply, I thought it would be wise to vote on one of the existing wagons because it was too late to make a difference otherwise...first Sapph vs TGN, then TGN vs Kane, and if we want to extend it to yesterday Kane vs myself. In the first two cases I think I even said if I had to choose between the two of them when voting. I know I'm town (talk about generic defenses, lol), and I didn't suspect Kane at all (and now we know he was town), so I had no choice but to vote for someone else and I returned to my previous philosophy of voting for the person I feel is most suspicious regardless.

    But the fact of the matter, everyone that's been wagoned toward the end of the last three days has been proven to be town (except for me, of course), and now I feel my logic in voting on existing wagons over people I feel to be more suspicious was incorrect.

    The risk was not worth it , he might have tried to soft up high , but faced no rebellion in that softening regard , which is why it seemed obvious that no one else was having a PR(since he softened up till the point of role revealing). As of Doc and TGN , they were the scums last game who are in this game . I had a suspicion on Doc because of that statement but I dug up a better reason why it was not indicating Doc later . He wanted to sow suspicion in our minds against TGN as that was the only wagon which if swelled could have saved Sapph . I don't think changing opinion is wrong , more of a drawback I guess . I like to see you answering me though , thought I won't receive a post from you answering me😅
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  • We kinda need to get this thread moving again in light of EoD drawing closer, as a result of my reads list I will be voting:

    Vote - Wintermoot

    I haven't been especially convinced by his defense, if I'm wrong I'm wrong. This also may serve as a way of getting info on Doc, who I feel much less comfortable lynching right now.
    Vroendal
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  • Current reads and explanations:


    Towncore:

    Legacy of Smiles
    Spoiler
    Cute tortoise. Would never stab you.

    ExLight
    Spoiler
    Not going to do a full ISO here but has been extremely towny over the last few points to the point where I will probably never rescind this TR. High levels of WIM, solvy, active to a degree that scum has no real incentive to be and is not afraid to get into arguments or make hot takes that go against thread consensus. Overall, a clear townsperson.
    (Thoughts on the whole pinkie promise debate).
    Spoiler
    I don't really think we should argue on this further because it doesn't progress the game forwards and is an easy place for scum to make themselves look active without contributing. The pinkie promise is a form of a strategy called a trust tell which you can read more about here: https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Trust_Tell. Note: it's not a banned strategy on this forum to my knowledge (although I don't like it personally) so ignore that part of the article please. Worth noting that it's likely that he's just being truthful (although I think he's town without having to factor it into my reads) but you can make of it what you will. If necessary, I can just make a case for why ExLight is town ignoring this and we can call it a day.

    Anubhav Ghosh
    Spoiler
    Slightly bumped down from before because on a reread I think his refusal to make townreads was... iffy and reminiscent of new scum I've played with over discord but otherwise has been a very clear townsperson. Seems exceptionally pure and has clearly been backreading and analysing to make reads, even if I strongly disagree with some of the logic behind them. Would be very surprised if this slot is scum.

    Red Mones
    Spoiler
    D2 interactions alone put him into towncore territory for me and has otherwise been towny too. Was paranoid about the sudden drop off in activity but recent posts have been solid and eased my doubts. I think the sudden change in perspective on BSR is much more likely to come from a town pov than not.


    Town Leans:

    Vroendel
    Spoiler
    Vote on Ruguo D2 is a good look. Active and helpful. Think he's spewed mostly clear from the large number of people who he is not w/w with. Reaction to being voted is somewhat understandable but has concerned me enough to not quite towncore them yet (although they are close to moving up).

    Michi
    Spoiler
    Underwhelmed by his actual posts but I also think he's been spewed clear from interactions with Ruguo on both D1 and D2 as well as the fact that he's probably never w/w with Wischland, Gerrick or Vroendel thanks to D1 wagonomics (and a not great reason for him to be a tied vote, feels like LHF) as well as a lot of people generally wanting him dead at various points in the game. Choosing not to self-pres on D1 was a bad decision but probably a towny one... although it isn't certain that he was actually online to do so. Dipping after almost getting D1 mislynched also seems believable. However, voting in particular has been bad and I'm not moving him up any further in my reads until I start seeing more from his posts.

    NyghtOwl
    Spoiler
    D1 posts strongly remind me if my own beginner mindset and would be hard to fake as scum. Was widely strongly townread for this but then has done very little of note since and has been on a few bad wagons since. Still likely town but I'm beginning to worry about them and really want to see more.

    Null:

    cozmikrae
    Spoiler
    I went over her in detail earlier and she's a null read. Struggling to get over the last minute unvote getting Sapphiron lynched (especially after she criticised somebody else's unvote causing a tie earlier that same day) but her D1 looks super towny and I would still be surprised if newer scum came into the thread in that manner. Early Ruguo vote was a good look but otherwise has argued with / pushed mostly townspeople (and only townspeople if Vro is town). HumanDawn kill is probably NAI but probably suggests experienced teammates if she flips red (as well as the Sapphiron voting shenanigans). Very good scum equity with Doc (drops to lowest read if Doc flips red), good scum equity with Michi and Wintermoot. Not w/w with Vroendel (and probably not with Red Mones too but I think he is just town anyway).

    Wischland
    Spoiler
    Not w/w with Vro. Weird early hot take on Minish that I'm not sure if I like. Otherwise not very active, few posts seem AI. Appreciated the recent reads list but am struggling to put them higher. Paranoid about this slot.

    Gerrick
    Spoiler
    Strongly disliked the early progression on Michi/Vroendel (probably not w/w with either). Hasn't really done anything town-indicative until today - liked their reads / explanations / questions which is why they are this far up.


    Scum Leans

    Doc
    Spoiler
    Mostly here by PoE. Voting problems have been discussed in-thread at length previously and I agree with the points (although I don't think they are exhaustive, most players have pretty bad voting records rn but not voting Ruguo looks bad on him). Has partner potential with a lot of players, cozmik most strongly. A few players' interactions with him in particular have pinged me (and explanations for him in some people's (cozmik and Wischland particularly) reads lists stand out compared to others. However, I like his solving recently.

    BraveSirRobin
    Spoiler

    Has dropped pretty significantly for me after TGN / Kane (who I both scumread and believed were not w/w with BSR) flipped town, as has Minish. Hard disagree with the cozmik clear post, reasoning seems contrived. Still stand by that he had the towniest reaction to the Sapphiron lynch. Less likely to be w/w with Wintermoot because of strongly differing reactions towards Sapphiron's soft.

    Wintermoot
    Spoiler
    I stand by the vote on Sapphiron being extremely suspicious and I don't buy the defence to it at all. If moot is town then the wagon on Sapphiron was completely made up of townspeople and that would be extremely weird (this would probably clear BSR if we assume multiple scum must have been voting him at the time).



    I know we all feel this way but it's important we don't get demoralised now. We're still in a solid spot, we just need one red flip and I think this game will suddenly swing a lot more in our favour.

    Ok and this took absolutely ages to make so if there's anything I didn't explain well enough please ask.
    4 people like this post: ExLight, Vroendal, Anubhav Ghosh, cozmikrae
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