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Yeah, Sapph's meta is tricky to pin down. He always lurks, but there's a very hands-off way he lurks when he's scum, which seems to fit here.

and how accurate would you say your meta interpretation is

Then again, he's in the military now, and has a lot less time for this kind of stuff than he used to have.

My meta is usually fairly solid, but circumstances change.

I'll respond with Vote: Laurentus. I feel like somebody doesn't like me scratching a particular itch.

Vote: aragonn

i don't like this tit for tat. from the way he's been playing, Laurentus an obvious townread to me.

is this the vote that's going to be recast? let's test it if you do not risk it then you will get no biscuit.

would like to mention i can be talked off the aragonn wagon because i am also very interested in a sapphiron vote

@Laurentus I'll take my finger off the nuke button if you do.

We've already had our bout, now I'm trying to diffuse the situation. I haven't heard from him in a good while though.

was there a situation to diffuse? i voted you because i thought you were acting suspicious, and i assume that's what laurentus did as well. i still think you're suspicious for the immediate jump on your accuser. with the claim (and my personal townread of him), it's unthinkable to me that you could even consider voting for that slot.

I think I may have made a mistake and over-reacted. I still don't like your OMGUS vote, but that's just your style at this point. I will vote: Sapphiron as he has still not become more involved, well into D2, and Hydra has since provided a more detailed reads list.

I am also not liking Aren's votes, but he always has a weird style in these games.

are these votes based on meta or something

I was starting to townread you because I was assuming that you staying away from the action D1 was so you looked a bit scummier due to your now outed investigative role, but now I'm a bit confused as to why you're still poking the Sapph route again

D1, Sapph did nothing, only voted to push the button. They also showed up immediately after Laurentus voted for them. That makes them more suspicious to me than other inactives, so i don't mind the sapph push

Posting mostly to get my post count up (Oh god I have so much reading.) And also to note that considering Saph's general activity these days it might not be the best indicator.

Holy moly it's back to me again. As Lau and Crush have pointed out, my forum activity pales in comparison to the past, owing to real life commitments. So eww meta votes. Okay to respond to observations of me joining in only to “push the button” or “defend myself”, I don’t see any difference between how I behaved and those who voted and then unvoted due to D1 randomness / tit for tat. Well I guess I have to provide some form of analysis to appease the grouchy Lau so here’s my analysis of the vote pattern in D1.

Day 1 Vote Pattern

ExLight votes for Aragonn (1)
-   Personality clash (ignore)
Excalibur votes for ExLight (1)
-   Claims ExLight discussing “6 is lame” as a “turret complaining about the number of turrets”  Tenuous link between issues with game setup and scumread  Could just be random vote for D1
Barnes votes for Doc (1)
-   Tenuous link between discussing game mechanics and scumread  Could just be random vote for D1
Doc votes for Barnes (1)
-   Tit for tat (normal)
El Fiji Grande votes for ExLight (2)
-   No reason given  Possibility of random vote but more likely aware that there’s already a vote against ExLight  Possibility of starting a bandwagon  Suspicious
Pengu votes for Batma n (1)
-   Voting to push for activity  Random vote for D1
Gerrick votes for Hapi (1)
-   Random vote for D1
Hapi votes for ExLight (3)
-   Personality clash (ignore)
Red Mones votes for ExLight (4)
-   Claims ExLight is pushing too aggressively against Aragonn (which is part of the personality clash)  Continues a growing bandwagon  Suspicious
Barnes changes vote from Doc (0) to ExLight (5)
-   Joins a growing bandwagon without providing reasoning  Later joins in the personality clash argument  Willingly admits belief that ExLight is town  Agitated Town
Red Mones removes vote from ExLight (4)
-   Willingly jumps off bandwagon  Claims it’s “olive branch” 
ExLight removes vote from Aragonn (0)
-   Personality clash (ignore)
Hapi removes vote from ExLight (3)
-   Personality clash (ignore)
Barnes removes vote from ExLight (2)
-   Personality clash (ignore)
Batma n votes for and removes vote from ExLight (2)
-   Dead (ignore)
Barnes votes for Doc (1)
-   Random vote for D1
Madeline Norfolk votes for Wintermoot (1)
-   Random vote for D1
Aragonn votes for and removes vote from Marzipan (0)
-   Random vote for D1
(inserting this cause I missed it from Pg 5) Imaginative Kane votes for and removes vote from Mathyland (0)
-   Random vote for D1
Laurentus votes for Sapphiron (1)
-       Vote to push for activity (boo meta read)
Minish votes for Red Mones (1)
-   Reasoning makes sense (i.e. focus on Red Mones jumping on and off wagon, absolute confidence in reading Aragonn’s meta)
funnier6 votes for Red Mones (2)
Batma n votes for and removes vote from ExLight (2)
-   Discussion of ExLight’s role claim (which personally is way too early but can be seen as last resort to break bandwagon)
ExLight votes for Batma n (2)
-   Votes Batma n for voting against his doctor claim  Makes sense I guess, if one trusts that claim
Excalibur removes vote from ExLight (1) and votes for Hapi (2)
-   Claims Hapi is trying to be confusing 
Batma n votes for and removes vote from Hapi (2)
Hapi votes for Excalibur (1)
-   Random vote for D1
Aragonn votes for Batma n (3)
-   Batma n made some mistakes  Probably reasonable
Batma n votes for Hapi (3)
Hapi votes for Batma n (4)
-   Tit for tat
Wintermoot votes for El Fiji Grande (1)
-   Points out unreasoned vote  Makes sense
Batma n (4) is lynched

TLDR: I am suspicious of Red Mones, El Fiji Grande and Excalibur but the first one in this list has been behaving oddest so Vote: Red Mones. And I can't just leave out this wonderful mechanic, Vote: Press the button

interesting how people are showing up out of the woodwork now that sapph is getting the pressure put on.

Okay to respond to observations of me joining in only to “push the button” or “defend myself”, I don’t see any difference between how I behaved and those who voted and then unvoted due to D1 randomness / tit for tat.

the difference between you and the people who voted during day 1.... is that they voted. most of those people that you listed were trying to solve the game, that's the whole reason for voting. you didn't insert any opinion on anything at all, you didn't even comment on the state of the game if i remember correctly. but conveniently, you were around right when laurentus mentioned you. The post you've done here is good, i'll admit, but it doesn't erase everything that came before.
anyway that's the difference, they were around putting themselves in the limelight and when you were around you weren't trying to solve anything

That's also why i'm suspicious of wintermoot. the only thing i have written down for them is about their EOD vote, meaning they probably didn't do anything significant during the rest of the day. even then they stayed off the wagons, didn't even mention that the wagons existed, and voted for someone completely off track, a safe vote if you will. i keep wondering why they even bothered to show up to vote at all. my mind jumps to potential distancing from partners, a bus without the keys in the ignition if you will, but it's only one possibility out of many. someone also mentioned they were quote-unquote "a subtle wolf," which raises eyebrows because they are currently quite subtle.

how did this turn into a post about wintermoot
anyway i have a lot of suspects i guess lmao

Holy moly it's back to me again.

(...)

'Batma n votes for and removes vote from ExLight (2)
-   Dead (ignore)'

blame Lau for loving going after you

And I don't agree with just dismissing the dead's votes like since it's coming from a honest place, unless you have another reason for that

really liking LG's content and I can verify relaying heavily on meta that she usually plays like this when she's Town as opposed to her hard potatoing as scum

not really a green check but it's prolly a solid townlean

We're still friends, Sapph.

the difference between you and the people who voted during day 1.... is that they voted. most of those people that you listed were trying to solve the game, that's the whole reason for voting. you didn't insert any opinion on anything at all, you didn't even comment on the state of the game if i remember correctly. but conveniently, you were around right when laurentus mentioned you. The post you've done here is good, i'll admit, but it doesn't erase everything that came before.
anyway that's the difference, they were around putting themselves in the limelight and when you were around you weren't trying to solve anything

It isn't convenient that I was around when Lau mentioned me. I have been roaming around, reading through the posts. As you can see from my analysis, with most of the posts revolving around personality conflict (which is at least 10+ pages), I don't really see the need to jump in and add to the confusion. And regarding limelight, it's just not my play style to steer public opinion until I am to a certain degree confident a particular player is a Wolf. And pretty sure if I overtly try to prove myself as a town before there are actual votes just gonna increase suspicion on my behaviour. But I can see your point of view, considering how you probably played in games where every town participate actively throughout.

And I don't agree with just dismissing the dead's votes like since it's coming from a honest place, unless you have another reason for that

I am not dismissive of the dead's votes. It's just that the point of my vote pattern analysis at this point is just focused on who among the living has been more suspicious, not gathering additional info from the dead.

We're still friends, Sapph.

Boo

I'll respond with Vote: Laurentus. I feel like somebody doesn't like me scratching a particular itch.

Vote: aragonn

i don't like this tit for tat. from the way he's been playing, Laurentus an obvious townread to me.

is this the vote that's going to be recast? let's test it if you do not risk it then you will get no biscuit.

would like to mention i can be talked off the aragonn wagon because i am also very interested in a sapphiron vote

@Laurentus I'll take my finger off the nuke button if you do.

We've already had our bout, now I'm trying to diffuse the situation. I haven't heard from him in a good while though.

was there a situation to diffuse? i voted you because i thought you were acting suspicious, and i assume that's what laurentus did as well. i still think you're suspicious for the immediate jump on your accuser. with the claim (and my personal townread of him), it's unthinkable to me that you could even consider voting for that slot.

I immediately jumped on him because I happened to be looking at the thread at the time. Also I was getting flashbacks from last game when he jumped on me D2. He was a wolf then, and a pretty convincing one too. But this isn't last game.

One of the main things I look for in Laurentus to tell if he's scum is if he's targeting other members of House Valeria. That would be me, Hydra, and Tau. So far he's cast suspicion on us all and even thrown a vote in my direction. I'm not taking hard action against him because he's not pressing so hard and all the town reads y'all are getting from him, but I don't trust him.

One of the main things I look for in Laurentus to tell if he's scum is if he's targeting other members of House Valeria. That would be me, Hydra, and Tau. So far he's cast suspicion on us all and even thrown a vote in my direction. I'm not taking hard action against him because he's not pressing so hard and all the town reads y'all are getting from him, but I don't trust him.

What does that make Pengu, Marzipan, Arenado, and Hapi if you, Hydra, Tau, and Laurentus are the members of House Valeria?

Sorry y'all, been a crazy past couple of days for me. Will try to post some more analytical stuff before eod.

Anyways, it's a little odd to me how common OMGUS votes (or what y'all call tit-for-tat) are here. On ZD those are seen as rather suspicious. Because you're supposed to be defending yourself, not throwing shade on the other person. Sure if you're town you know they're wrong, but you gotta show people they're wrong. Townies vote other townies all the time so you should be looking for behavior and not just retaliating for votes against you.

I know Sapph hasn't been around and just popping up when mentioned is kinda suspicious, but I liked that vote analysis post a lot. Not enough to give him a town read yet, but if he keeps it up like that he'll look pretty good. I do agree with his conclusions from the voting, since they aligned with my own thoughts though.

Gonna take the living list and try to give my basic reads on how they're leaning to me. This is just going on gut feeling of how I consider them when I see their name, so nothing too analytical. But in a 30 person game I figured it's one way to try and organize my thoughts.

Green=town
Yellow=slight town
Blue=null
Orange=slight scummy
Red=scummy

El Fiji Grande
taulover
Hydra
xxurbanxx
Red Mones
lil g
Barnes
Pengu
Doc
Imaginative Kane
Laurentus
Sapphiron
Wintermoot
Crushita
Gerrick
ExLight
Arenado
Madeline Norfolk
Aragonn
ogunbiyi6422
Weisreich
Excalibur
Hapi Ever After
Marzipan
Charax
William Rhys


That...that's a lot of blue. And not very much green.

Blue mostly indicates inactives or people who have made no impression on me. But there are a few in there (Pengu, Kane, Moot, Gerrick) who could go either way for me, or have posted a bit but I'm not quite sure what to think about them yet.


Hapi is interesting, because I ultimately ended up making her yellow but I went back and forth. D1 I was slightly town reading her. The wagon on her seemed sort of out of nowhere. But her change in behavior from d1 to d2 is...interesting. The whole wifom "I'm totally not a bad guy *wink wink*" behavior feels odd to me. Town shouldn't be trying to cause any confusion. But I'm also not sure if she'd draw that attention to herself as town.


Doc is a somewhat similar case with his posting style, but that puts him at a slightly scummy feel to me. Posting in a way like that as scum gives you something to hide behind. You can pretend not to be as straightforward with your thoughts, or muddle them in a confusing way.

Maybe I'll have more town reads when I actually reread and start to analyze stuff. It's probably telling that two of the three town reads are people I'm familiar with. And I also feel strongly about those two reads.


El fiji and Red are suspicious for previously stated reasons.

Hydra I put orange but I couldn't really tell you specifics right now. Just how I felt when I saw his name.

Doc I've already explained.

Aragonn, his behavior has been a little off here recently. He's doing a lot of speculating it feels, but not a lot of analyzing.

Also, the random effects of this area seem like they'll benefit scum more than town so I'm going to...

Vote:Push the button

Vote:Red Mones

Regrettably, I haven't got much experience here playing with any of you so my suspicions can only be based on what I'm seeing in front of me. Based on my history with Werewolf, I always keep an eye out for the quieter folk who come somewhat late into discussions and join with trending bandwagons - a fairly common scum tactic and a fairly common way to scumread I'm sure.

With that said, I have to say I'm keeping an eye on Red Mones, Excalibur, Hydra, Crushita, El Fiji Grande and Wintermoot. Lau and Pengu aren't by any means innocent in my eyes, and if they were to be scum that would be a fairly big blow to townie's chances I think. Arenado and Doc are pinging me somewhat, but I haven't got anything to go off for that.

For the most part we have a lot of active conversation, but aside from a lot of character clashes we aren't doing a huge amount of analysis on people's voting patterns and their behaviours, more on their personalities and why it rubs us the wrong way. I don't think this is particularly productive to finding scum, although of course I put as much faith in "a feeling" as anyone who's ever had "a feeling" about something turn out to be correct.

It's also worth noting that the Bouncy Blue Gel is in effect. Assuming that votes remain cast in order, with vote changes only amending the target and not moving that vote to most recent vote position (which seems to be the case from Ruguo's posts);
Vote 1: Barnes -> PENGU
Vote 2: Lau -> ARAGONN
Vote 3: Ara -> LAURENTUS
Vote 4: Gerrick -> SAPPHIRON
VOTE 5: Kane -> ARENADO
Vote 6: Mones -> PENGU
Vote 7: Doc -> GERRICK
Vote 8: Lil g -> ARAGONN
Vote 9: Hapi -> ARENADO
VOTE 10: Sapphiron -> RED MONES
Vote 11: Minish ->RED MONES

With Aragonn removing his vote, the fifth vote is Mones for Pengu and the tenth is Minish for Mones.