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Boy I do love me a good witch trial.

The more people that jump on the bandwagon, the more I think there’s a wolf on board, but then again that keeps suspicion off of them if Aragonn turns out to be a wolf. I can’t in good conscience vote for Aragonn. But hey, this is werewolf, who has a good conscience? Vote: Aragonn. Sorry, Aragonn, but the info we get from you being lynched regardless of your side is something we need right now. I can’t not vote again, and looks like you’re fucked anyway.

There's no such thing as a good conscience. All I can do is paint a target while the noose is being fitted.

Well, for better or for worse, I do have a good conscience. It's that type 2 thing we discussed today on Discord.

Vote: Laurentus

I've been suspicious of the strange Laurentus-Doc alliance that formed apparently even at the beginning of the game, and it's obvious in this round they've taken control of the game. It's obvious that Doc wanted to target anybody he could attach a reason to (originally me, I guess for voicing my suspicions in the first round), but I guess Aragonn making a vote without a good reason is something that sticks a little better. But then comes Laurentus to drive the whole thing home, making vague accusations that Aragonn had tried to distance himself from the Mathy kill and concluding that "we've found our wolf" based on nothing more than an abrupt vote and his defensiveness. Then there's the bandwagoning, which in some cases is uncharacteristically gleeful like from Gerrick.

I could be wrong, but I don't think Aragonn would react the way he did unless he felt he was being wrongly accused. There's always the possibility that he's become a really great actor, in which case I've probably delivered myself to the wolves (or suspicious villagers) on a silver platter, but this is how I feel and I'm going to stick up for him on this one. I've been suspicious of Doc and Laurentus since round 1...I initially lumped Aragonn in that group too, but now we see who is driving the game.

I implore you all to reconsider, even though one (or more, see below) of you is probably a wolf. @Red Mones @Doc @Melehan @El Fiji Grande @Ruguo @HappySpin @Imaginative Kane @Gerrick

Nonetheless, I have come to accept that my words will probably mean nothing. Therefore, by standing up for Aragonn, I understand that I have painted a huge target on my back that Laurentus will surely act upon.

Here's my new suspicious list based off the events that have transpired and more time to think:
1. Laurentus (I've said enough)
2. El Fiji Grande (Ruguo makes a good point about flipping. Based off Laurentus' past wolf actions, this seems like something Laurentus would direct as a thinly veiled attempt to hide a wolf among saving town to ensure a victory. This vanity wagon, especially after the wagon on Aragonn has already started, strikes as suspicious to me)
3. HappySpin (has been awfully quiet ever since starting their vote for me; with all that's happened, a townie would usually contribute more, especially one with the knowledge to perform a reaction test)
4. Gerrick (just please explain your vote)
5. Doc (this alliance...)

Nevertheless, whoever gets lynched will give us more information. I just hope we're making the right choice this time.

Every time I walk into one of these games I think, "I've played some more games, I'll do better this time". Day 1 comes around and I think, "Oh yeah, this isn't too bad". By day 3 I remember what all those past games were like. I don't know what the hell I'm doing, I'm waayyyyy in over my head. I guess that's just all part of the game. My gut is telling me Aragonn is innocent. I'm gonna switch my vote yet again, and Vote: Laurentus.

Thank yourself, Hydra. You're half the reason I changed my vote.

Enter: midnight brain. Somehow the most logical part of me.

At this point, someone needs to die for information. Either flip, we have our targets. I don't like the Hydra plea. It seems like a desperate play to get the last wolf off the wagon so you can misdirect. I don't like mones flopping around. I have to stick with the gun I'm holding now and see how this ends. There is no other option, as the rest of the wagon isn't going to be on in time. So I'm sorry, Hydra, Aragonn, this is how it has to be. I'll be the first on the Lau wagon if this is wrong, the second on Doc if that forms, though I don't quite understand it. Information is information.

Umm, I voted for Aragonn because he admitted to being a wolf...

Seriously, though, Aragonn has been cast as The Most Suspicious. If anyone else is lynched before him, all conversations will just go back to him still being the most suspicious. His fate is sealed, and so he must die for us to get the most useful information on how others have acted.

You act on a gut feeling, people pile on you. You try to defend yourself like a normal person would, people get convinced they have the right target. Yeah, this isn't the game for me anymore. I'm okay with dying. But at least I know my death won't be in vain.

the strange Laurentus-Doc alliance

5. Doc (this alliance...)

I really don't know how this 'alliance' is so suspicious.
But just so we're clear on where it stems from, it's here (i.e. days before the game started), and concluded the moment we hit day 3.
Today, I obviously haven't been at odds with Lau because we're targeting the same person, but there's little to no certainty this won't immediately cease to be the case the moment we tick over into day 4.

the second on Doc if that forms, though I don't quite understand it. Information is information.

How have I gone from 'not on the top 3 scumspect' list and 'not making a wtf move' to being your second most desirable target?

how Doc has not exactly been voting according to his stated observations

I mean, I'm super glad we're discounting my second set of observations, which are what started the Aragonn wagon in the first place...
The origins of this weird notion that I've not been voting my observations are this post Hydra made, which essentially says 'I don't follow the reasoning' rather than 'he observes one thing then votes another'.

Now that instinctive defensiveness is over, here's a votecount and some quick-and-dirty analysis.
Hydra (Happyspin, Aragonn) (1 at present)
Aragonn (Me, Melehan, Laurentus, Red Mones (Vote 1), Gerrick, Ruguo, Red Mones (Vote 2 after withdrawing vote)) (5 at present)
Laurentus (Aragonn, Hydra, Wintermoot, Red Mones (Vote 3)) (4 at present)
Gerrick (Kane) (1 at present)
Melehan (Fiji) (1 at present)
(Everyone has voted!!!)

Observations:
1. On the basis of his flip-floppiness, I've some confidence that Mones isn't a power role of any kind, nor has he been contacted by the Seer.
2. Considering the alarmingly quick aboutface the dogpile has taken, I'm no longer confident that Aragonn is a wolf. If he was, the other wolves would have leapt onto the opportunity to wagon his ass...but only after there was confidence that the villagers thought he was a wolf, implying a 7-8 person wagon, not a 5-man one.
Which suggests the wolves instead leapt on the first villager wagon that became really plausible. That fits, imo, with Gerrick's (incredibly poorly reasoned) vote coming in after Mones in an obvious bandwagon.

Crazy theory time. Something about the abruptness of the turn and its defensiveness would ordinarily make me think that Aragonn, Hydra, and Moot are, in fact, the Seer and his Seer Squad. The sole problem with this theory is Aragonn voted for Hydra first.
The theory I'm actually satisfied with is that Wintermoot and Hydra are part of a Seer Squad, linking up night one, and one of them scanned Lau last night, finding him to be a wolf. There's suspicion pinned on me by virtue of 'the alliance', and would be on Aragonn by virtue of the first day's 'alliance' voting pattern, except the fact that the 'alliance' turned on him indicates either the most aggressive bussing on the planet, long before any meaningful suspicion ever existed, or that he was never a wolf to begin with.
I'm calling all my role reads now, mostly so that if I'm like 60% right in the end I can look back and tell myself I'm amazing.
I think Laurentus, Gerrick, and Ruguo are our wolves; I think Wintermoot is the Seer; I think he's contacted Hydra; I think Mones, me, Aragonn, Fiji, and HappySpin are uncontacted villagers, and I think Kane and Melehan are our Defenders. (Note for posterity, future me: I'm pretty much making up the defender list, I have no actual idea).

Oh, and most importantly, Vote: Laurentus to flip it from 5:4 Aragonn to 5:4 Laurentus.

EDIT: Yes, I edited my post, major suspicious move, but seriously I typoed so many times, I'm sorry, it's a long fuckin post and I'm tired okay

Very wow. Much amaze.

You guys deserve to lose.

Wow. I didn't even steep that low. Come now, brother. Don't be like that.

Alrighty folks, the Day Phase has ended!

And after tallying the votes, it ends with 5 votes toward Laurentus, 4 votes for Aragonn (and 3 towards other players).

Laurentus has been chosen by the villagers to be lynched.

And what a great way to turn things around, because Laurentus was in fact a Werewolf!

Congrats on your first werewolf kill folks!

Now, let us dive into our 3rd Night Phase.  Power roles, send me your PM choices for the night.

I'll also be ending this phase a bit past 24 hours, since 3AM is quite a bit early to be ending phases.  So, the night phase will end at March 10th at 1PM PST or in exactly 34 hours and 10 minutes from this post, or when all of the power roles have sent in their choices...whichever hits first.

DEAD

Well played, guys.

Sorry for the theatrics there at the end.

Best of luck, Wolf team.