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[Game]Those of No Reflexion: Potatoe Twilight and the Black Mass
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Melehan
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  • @Doc, since you like my logic, have a look-see.

    The more I think about it and look at the votes, the more I suspect that Gally is a wolf, and so I'm changing my vote to Gallynukes.

    TL;DR: he's been pushing HARD for Ruguo to be lynched with really iffy logic that relies pretty entirely on hindsight bias and ignores how North started the wagon on Crushita first.

    Exhibit A: his first post of the day where he completely ignores how Ruguo's vote for North was in reaction to North starting the wagon on Crushita out of the blue

    Exhibit B: he then retracts his vote, implicitly acknowledging Ruguo's points as valid

    Exhibit C: but then he comes back with a pretty flimsy argument that Ruguo is too aggressively protective of Crushita (which I'm not seeing at all) and that he's ride-or-die for lynching Ruguo

    Exhibit D: this question about using voting proxies

    Exhibit D by itself wouldn't have stood out to me, but coupled with how disproportionately strongly Gally has been pushing to lynch Ruguo without concrete evidence, it makes me suspect that he's wolf with a protective/investigative role angling to reduce suspicion of himself by association with the surviving target. Because roles are independent of alignment, such a ploy is pretty feasible, especially considering the Stongman modifier of a number of roles bypasses protection entirely, making it extremely risky for town investigators to come forward with information, especially later in the game. Couple the aforementioned with how the only ones at this point able to confirm anyone as town are the wolves and the N1 protective roles, Tracker and Voyeur; and how the Role Cop does not see alignment, the Alignment Cops were not active N1, and Gerrick didn't observe anything that would clear anyone; and the plausibility of such a ploy only increases.

    The N1 Tracker can only clear someone if the one they tracked didn't visit anyone last night as the only ones not doing any visiting last night are N2 and N3 townsfolk (because everyone has power roles in this game). The N1 Voyeur can only clear someone if they happened to watch the person targeted for the kill last night, at which point, they can only clear the one targeted for the kill.

    Right now, of all the possible ways to clear someone as town, the N1 Tracker and Voyeur have an accuracy of 100% if they meet the conditions listed above. We have no confirmation that either role observed anything useful. Meanwhile, the N1 protective roles have at minimum anywhere from a 33% to 50% accuracy on clearing a town depending on which role the JOAT chose to use last night, and we have confirmation that at least one of the protective roles cleared someone. It would be funny (and convenient for town) if all the protectors converged upon the same person last night though.

    Just as a reminder to the N2 protectors, Gerrick cannot be protected due to the Macho modifier on his role, so save your protection for someone else.

    And since I'm here and it's taken me literally more than an hour to write this because work keeps being work, have a list of Mushi's Most Suspicious:

    Gallynukes - For reasons above

    Aragonn - For going along with and expanding upon Gally's iffy logic

    Sapphiron - Iffy logic of a different sort, but still very iffy

    Wintermoot - For riding on the Ruguo is protecting Crushita train, a stance which Gally advanced

    The Not So Suspicious (for the moment)

    Doc
    Gerrick
    Kane

    The Unknowns

    Everyone else. You folks need to talk more. Especially Crushita.
    Melehan
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    Gallynukes
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  • Exhibit A: his first post of the day where he completely ignores how Ruguo's vote for North was in reaction to North starting the wagon on Crushita out of the blue

    Was actually my second post of the day but I digress.

    You completely ignored the portion of that very message where I stated that -- yes, despite Ruguo's vote for North being supposedly in reaction to his starting the wagon on Crushita, she still said in that very same post "killing without proof will get us nowhere" but then proceeded to continue heading to that very referenced nowhere by staying on North.

    Wouldn't it have been more prudent to say that then unvote and then be like, yo, North, chillax a little let's take it slow and take further stock of our options? Maybe put on some Barry Manilow and pop some sparkling cranberry seltzer?

    Quote
    Exhibit C: but then he comes back with a pretty flimsy argument that Ruguo is too aggressively protective of Crushita (which I'm not seeing at all) and that he's ride-or-die for lynching Ruguo

    Uh... really? Okay, I guess I'll break down what I meant even though... I mean, I... thought that whole thing was pretty obvious from the posts.

    Immediately following my formal accusation, here's numero uno:

    Yerp, saw that one coming.

    Voted Gally to point fingers, as one does. Jumped on North for being the first to double vote, ended up boxing myself into a corner. Tell me, Gally, what would you have me do?  Leave Crush to die? It was a bad situation all around. North had the opportunity to change his vote. Even if he had put it on me I would have stood down, because I would rather it be me for my own stupidity than Crush who did exactly... nothing.

    I will accept my fate if this is what you wish. But I would like to know what you would have done in my position. Would you have left Crush to die?

    Aaaaand numero dos around twenty minutes later:

    Why? Is it easier to answer now, knowing North's role? Is there something about Crush that I'm missing that somehow makes them sus?

    Yes, I made a mistake. Do I regret it? Yes. Would I do it over again? Yes. None of us knew anyone's roles. North is the one who upped the odds from 1 in 8 to 1 in 1, and that wasn't fair. To me, it looked like he was a wolf trying to force a lynch that wasn't one of his comrades. I was wrong, and that is something I'm going to pay for the rest of the game.

    This was the point where I was like, ah... whatever, I'll let it play out. But here, let's keep this going because here's where it continued and ended up changing my mind back:

    Now my fate is tied to Crushita's. Well, I gotta hope he's innocent then. But how fun would it be if he was a tomatoist?

    As to why I would step in, it's because that's the kind of thing I do. Everyone deserves an equal chance to get eliminated. It didn't feel right letting him die, call it a gut feeling. I can't really explain it.

    Which was where I went back to her and laid out everything. I guess you're right saying it wasn't concrete, but, it's Day 2. Not exactly a concrete factory around here at this point.

    But anyway, even after doing all that and what made me feel even BETTER was when it kept going on even still:

    To Gerrick: why would I Lynch the person I stated felt gut innocent? It'd just make things worse, imo.

    Not exactly name-checked but I guarantee-a-rino that's about Crushita, too, unless my reading comprehension skills are just straight horrible today.

    That's four posts. Four. 1-2-3-4. And ALL of them were focused on Crushita, who hasn't even checked in yet.

    Quote
    Exhibit D: this question about using voting proxies

    Exhibit D by itself wouldn't have stood out to me, but coupled with how disproportionately strongly Gally has been pushing to lynch Ruguo without concrete evidence, it makes me suspect that he's wolf with a protective/investigative role angling to reduce suspicion of himself by association with the surviving target. Because roles are independent of alignment, such a ploy is pretty feasible, especially considering the Stongman modifier of a number of roles bypasses protection entirely, making it extremely risky for town investigators to come forward with information, especially later in the game. Couple the aforementioned with how the only ones at this point able to confirm anyone as town are the wolves and the N1 protective roles, Tracker and Voyeur; and how the Role Cop does not see alignment, the Alignment Cops were not active N1, and Gerrick didn't observe anything that would clear anyone; and the plausibility of such a ploy only increases.

    Wait, what?

    What does any of that have to do with asking if there are proxy votes in the game? Proxies have absolutely nothing to do with roles whatsoever. Everybody can use them if they're available in game, I was just asking if they were on the table. And like I said, I didn't even have anyone to proxy to.

    I mean, I guess I could have tried to throw proxies into the mix to see who proxied to each other and go off those bonds but... it's Day 2. Unless there are masons in this game I doubt the vast majority of any of us pro-village peeps has anything concrete to go by in regards to who is also 100% pro-village, too, and/or has a pro-village role.

    You're barking up the wrong tree, friend-o.
    "The only true wisdom is in knowing that you know nothing."
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    Gallynukes
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    Red Mones
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  • Wow. I was just about ready to vote for Ruguo this morning based on Gally's case. (I was mostly convinced from the beginning, but I didn't want to vote right away) You might have just changed my mind completely. Just curious, though, @Gallynukes, have you played Werewolf like this before? What if they're just inexperienced? Or maybe they're inexperienced and still a wolf? Maybe trying to get a townie lynched, but just needed to be more subtle. I don't know. I'd like to hear other people's take on Melehan's post before I make a final decision.
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    Ruguo
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  • If I might weigh in here, yes my posts have been focused on crush. That's because the two of us are people of interest today. And the case against me hinges on the way I acted towards crush last day phase, making it logical I would address that. I can't exactly go about accusing myself, so I'm doing my best to explain. When I'm not between classes I'll jump in with a full analysis of today from my point of view.
    Ruguo
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    DekuNut
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  • Sup, lurker, here. I have decided to grace you good people with my presence.
    I dont see an issue with Ruguo trying to save Crushita. His explanations ring true to me. I know it may be an unpopular opinion, but it feels genuine. At some point when I'm on a computer I'll do a more thorough analysis, but I hate doing that on mobile.

    Sorry for my inactivity. Finals are coming up and I've been pretty busy for obvious reasons.
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    Melehan
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  • Quote from: Gallynukes
    Was actually my second post of the day but I digress.
    It's your first post after the official start of Day 2.

    Quote
    You completely ignored the portion of that very message where I stated that -- yes, despite Ruguo's vote for North being supposedly in reaction to his starting the wagon on Crushita, she still said in that very same post "killing without proof will get us nowhere" but then proceeded to continue heading to that very referenced nowhere by staying on North.
    Referenced, yes. Stated, no.

    Glossing over why Ruguo voted for North while insinuating that Ruguo's entire chain of posts contained scummy slips? Especially when voting to put pressure on the player that starts a wagon D1 is a valid strategy? That reads as quite a selective portrayal of events, which is pretty scummy. And your response to my accusation hasn't convinced me that you're just mistaken town going after the most obvious target.

    Quote
    That's four posts. Four. 1-2-3-4. And ALL of them were focused on Crushita, who hasn't even checked in yet.
    This part in particular sticks out to me because of course Ruguo is going to bring up Crushita in counterarguments because voting for North instead of allowing the lynch of Crushita is what made Ruguo Prime Target #1. To claim otherwise is quite a reach.

    Also, going back to what I mentioned about voting to put pressure on the one who starts the D1 wagon, had Ruguo backed down from voting North, Crushita definitely would have been lynched and North targeted the next day. Either way, North was on the line to be lynched, so unless he backed down before the day ended (which we all know he didn't), two potential town were on the line without even considering the night kill and D2 misdirection. On D1, where none of the town had any information.

    As it stands, because of Ruguo, the town cannot lynch someone just because they started a wagon because Ruguo had a clear reason for voting North AND Crushita survived. Losing North sucks for the town, but it could have been worse with a hasty D2 lynch (which is what you've essentially been pushing for).

    Quote
    What does any of that have to do with asking if there are proxy votes in the game? Proxies have absolutely nothing to do with roles whatsoever. Everybody can use them if they're available in game, I was just asking if they were on the table. And like I said, I didn't even have anyone to proxy to.
    And as I noted in that post, it wouldn't have stood out if it weren't for how hard you've been pushing for Ruguo to be lynched. I've already explained my reasoning there, so I'm not going to repeat it here.
    Melehan
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    Doc
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  • Well, since you bring up the Tracker and Crush...
    Guess who's the Tracker and was watching Crush?
     :wave: (this guy)
    And I'd like to note that Crush did...nothing at all last night.

    I think the safe assumption is that he's AWOL. No posts, no votes, no actions, and he hasn't even been on the forums in 2 days (incidentally, glancing at inactive peoples' member pages for that sweet, sweet 'Last Online' is a great way to get a sense of if they're active-lurking or just straight up inactive).
    2 people like this post: Melehan, DekuNut
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    Doc
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    taulover
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  • Wait, so there is a lynch for no voting rule in this game?

    Didn't see it in the rules; does this count as a "standard rule" or something? (Which I would be somewhat surprised by since we've seen several games without it.)

    I simply forgot to add it to the rules, but yeah, I am not a fan of no lynching. It slows the game down.

    That said, with the way this game is going, it's going to come to an incredibly quick end if I implemented it.
    I'm not asking about no lynching, I'm asking about lynches due to not voting. Your night end post suggested the existence of such a rule in this game where I didn't see one in the OP, so I'm asking for clarification on what the rule is specifically, if it exists.

    It was addressed here. https://wintreath.com/forums/index.php?topic=6256.msg143233#msg143233
    Ah, so what is the rule specifically? Is it two rounds of not voting, so that it will take effect this round? I assume that abstentions (such as Marzipan's) would also apply?

    (It also sounds like you're considering not actually implementing it though, so is there actually a lynch penalty for not voting?)

    Yeah, it seems I chose a very bad time to host this game, so a lot of people will be busy and might not be able to maintain the voting requirement, so I have decided not to implement it.

    And what we have here is a vanity wagon.
    Ah, got it. Hopefully that works out, given how many people are inactive. Myself included. Sorry y'all, have a lot going on academically right now and haven't had enough time to do thinking about the game.

    By vanity wagon are you referring to Aragonn's vote for himself?
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    taulover
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  • I think the safe assumption is that he's AWOL. No posts, no votes, no actions, and he hasn't even been on the forums in 2 days (incidentally, glancing at inactive peoples' member pages for that sweet, sweet 'Last Online' is a great way to get a sense of if they're active-lurking or just straight up inactive).
    As a side note this is why I find Laurentus' suggestion that the Who's Online metagame is pointless in this game to be a bit disingenuous, there's still a lot to gain from looking at this metadata.
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    taulover
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    Laurentus
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  • Wait, so there is a lynch for no voting rule in this game?

    Didn't see it in the rules; does this count as a "standard rule" or something? (Which I would be somewhat surprised by since we've seen several games without it.)

    I simply forgot to add it to the rules, but yeah, I am not a fan of no lynching. It slows the game down.

    That said, with the way this game is going, it's going to come to an incredibly quick end if I implemented it.
    I'm not asking about no lynching, I'm asking about lynches due to not voting. Your night end post suggested the existence of such a rule in this game where I didn't see one in the OP, so I'm asking for clarification on what the rule is specifically, if it exists.

    It was addressed here. https://wintreath.com/forums/index.php?topic=6256.msg143233#msg143233
    Ah, so what is the rule specifically? Is it two rounds of not voting, so that it will take effect this round? I assume that abstentions (such as Marzipan's) would also apply?

    (It also sounds like you're considering not actually implementing it though, so is there actually a lynch penalty for not voting?)

    Yeah, it seems I chose a very bad time to host this game, so a lot of people will be busy and might not be able to maintain the voting requirement, so I have decided not to implement it.

    And what we have here is a vanity wagon.
    Ah, got it. Hopefully that works out, given how many people are inactive. Myself included. Sorry y'all, have a lot going on academically right now and haven't had enough time to do thinking about the game.

    By vanity wagon are you referring to Aragonn's vote for himself?

    I was referring to something Gally said about Aragonn's vote. And yeah, any wagon that is not a main wagon is a vanity wagon. I'm slowly introducing these terms so that Wintreath's next representative won't find them as overwhelming as I did in my Mafia Universe game.
    2 people like this post: Red Mones, Melehan
    In die donker ure skink net duiwels nog 'n dop, 
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  • Doc, if you know Crushita did nothing last night, why are you voting for him?

    I would like to know how the werewolf team killing works. Which wolf counts as the one targeting someone to kill with regards to night powers (watcher, tracker, roleblocker, etc.) -- do they have to decide among themselves, is there a head wolf, or is it just not trackable? And how many wolves even are there?

    In a situation such as this (if Crushita were indeed a werewolf), is it possible that Crushita talked with the other wolves to determine a target, but that still counts as him doing nothing if he didn't use a power?
    1 person likes this post: Melehan

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    Melehan
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  • In light of what Doc pointed out re: Crushita and how he's probably headed for an inactivity lynch anyways (along with quite a few other folks), we could all vote to lynch Crushita in sneaky no-lynch fashion. No active players get lynched, town doesn't trigger the extra kill via abstention, and the numbers hopefully will remain on the town's side for another round.

    I would prefer to lynch a vile Tomatoist today, but by tomorrow, town will hopefully have better info.

    So with that in mind, I'm switching my vote back to Crushita.
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    Laurentus
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  • Doc, if you know Crushita did nothing last night, why are you voting for him?

    I would like to know how the werewolf team killing works. Which wolf counts as the one targeting someone to kill with regards to night powers (watcher, tracker, roleblocker, etc.) -- do they have to decide among themselves, is there a head wolf, or is it just not trackable? And how many wolves even are there?

    In a situation such as this (if Crushita were indeed a werewolf), is it possible that Crushita talked with the other wolves to determine a target, but that still counts as him doing nothing if he didn't use a power?

    These are good questions. Usually, the Wolves would decide amongst themselves who the trigger man should be. For the past night phase, though, I took the most active wolf and made them the trigger man.

    And I'm rather embarrassed that I didn't list it anywhere how many Wolves there are. There are four.
    4 people like this post: Red Mones, Melehan, Gerrick, DekuNut
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    • Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!
    • Regional Stability Squad
    • Pronouns
      He/Him/His
      Familial House
      The Noble House of Valeria
      Wintreath Nation
      Logged
    Crushita
  • Citizen
  • The Potato Pope
  • Just so everyone knows, I live!
    I need to read everything though. But I read via the activity feed and I saw it mentioned that I'm inactive so here's a post for your guy's sake.
    Spoiler
    Held Positions
    Wintreath
    Skirfa of the 12th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 25th, 26th, 27th and 29th Sessions of the Underhusen
    Former Thane of Information
    His Majesty's Court Pet
    Kingdom of Great Britain
    Former Privy Councilor
    Former Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Great Britain
    Former Deputy Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Great Britain x2
    Former Member of Parliament of the Kingdom of Great Britain x4
    Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Kingdom of Great Britain x2
    Former Lord of Parliament of the Kingdom of Great Britain x4
    Formerly His Royal Highness, the Viscount Telcontar of Whitby
    Ainur
    Former King of Ainur
    Former Minister of Culture of Ainur x2
    Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ainur x2
    Former Senator of Ainur x2
    Former Deputy Speaker of Ainur
    Other Regions
    Former Prime Minister of the British Isles
    Former Prime Minister of the New United Kingdom
    Former Culture Minister of the New United Kingdom
    Former Member of the Parliament of the Canadian Kingdom
    Former Privy Councillor in the Canadian Kingdom
    Former Member of Parliament of the United Kingdom
    [/center]
    • The Potato Pope
    Crushita
    • Posts: 1,860
    • Karma: 1,031
    • Historically Accurate
    • Citizen
    • Pronouns
      He/Him/His
      Familial House
      The House of Lancaster-Stuart
      Representing
      Wintreath Nation
      Logged
    Melehan
  • Citizen
  • ...and back I go to voting for Gallynukes.

    Unless there's another someone set to be taken out by the inactivity lynch ready to go. I'm on mobile, so it's kind of hard for me to check, but has LordArgon been on at all the past few days?
    Melehan
    • Posts: 370
    • Karma: 342
    • Citizen
    • Familial House
      Burdock
      Wintreath Nation
      Logged
     
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