You see, I had convinced myself that because North and I were both wolves before the reshuffle, that at least one of us was going to end up being a wolf again.
Wait, you were also a wolf the first time round?
I shouldn't have deleted that PM from Pengu, this is useful metaknowledge.
An argument might be made that statistically, one of us is likely to be a wolf, but then again so would any other randomly-chosen group of three from the 11 still in the game, so in
that sense: not useful.
In the sense that the one thing I recall from that abortive PM chain before I deleted it (idiocy!) is that North bothered replying to it, suggesting intense activity that isn't consistent with his previous gameplay, and which he's kept up till now? Makes me marginally less suspicious of him than I would otherwise be without that PM chain, because it no longer appears
completely out of character.
(Also, please bold your votes, North)
A reminder to everyone that this isn't even a 'please': rule 4 says 'all votes must be in bold or they
will not count' (emphasis mine). Bold your votes, y'all!
On to role analysis.
There's 1 Magician, 2 Scouts, 1 Blunderer, 3 Saboteurs, 1 Sab Leader, and 3 Contestants left. Now that I'm looking at it Seriously, 1 less Saboteur (and one more Contestant) would probably be fairer (since at the moment it seems pretty heavily stacked in favor of the wolves), but it's a bit late for that.
Something I want/need to know, Pengu, is:
what is the Blunderer's win condition? Is he scum-aligned, does he have some sort of special win condition, or does he just count as whichever the winning side is as long as he survives? If the first, then...we're pretty fucked since we lose tonight unless we lynch scum (since it will be 5-5 with good chances the scum night-kill one of us), but in the latter two cases then we've got a good chance. Also, I'd also like to know whether the Blunderer role affects Magician/Leader Scenarios, or it only affects powers.
(I'm going to observe for people who are now thinking 'is Doc the Blunderer, those are suspiciously specific questions?' that if I was, I'd have asked Pengu these questions in the PM we'd presumably share, and not out in the open. More fool me for not paying more attention to the roles earlier and asking them day one, but oh well, can't change the past.)
Laurentus, you've claimed defender. Were you the one knocked out
(by a bit of sausage from craft services no less, which must be an embarrassing story, but seeing as how there's coins getting in the dip clearly that whole department needs to be fired), or was it the other guy?
Lastly - some
Quick Maffs in my head says it might actually make sense for whoever the Magician is to claim it, since they're immune to sabotage for one round, and can subsequently be defended in alternating turns by the Scouts. Or, hell, defended
now and saving that lucky-coin-immunity for the future even.
Particularly since it would generate some delicious WIFOM for the saboteurs - 'will he be defended tonight (thus it would be a waste to target him), or will his Troupe gamble on him being protected by the coin to try and keep someone else safe (making it a good move either to target him to burn through his shield, or at least to not-target someone on the second-tier list of targets since
they may be being defended)'?
Final observation:
Ruguo, North, Mathy, and Laurentus have been
quite active.
Those who have not: Tau, Gerrick, Hydra, PJ, Gabrielle, David. (I leave myself out of both lists because while I haven't posted all that much in terms of post count, this is a fairly dense post, and more importantly obviously I want everyone to give me the benefit of the doubt and so I'm giving it to myself (tertiary reason: must defend my post:karma ratio, low-density posts get less karma and are thus death)).
The latter three are new, and so I have little in the way of past knowledge to read from them. But in my experience, when Hydra is quiet, he's trying (and quite generally succeeding) to fly under the radar. That makes me think scum.
Seeing as there's 17 hours left and no
legal votes on the table (I'm discounting North's vote for Ruguo because, again,
bold your votes, people, it's in the rules), that seems like we might wind up with a random result. I don't like that idea, obviously, since that gives me 9% odds of death, which is Too High.
Thus, I'm going to trust in the heart of the cards and
Vote: Hydra.
Caveat: I'm getting some weirdly scummy vibes from Ruguo, because he's not retaliated against North in the expected interests of self-preservation one might expect (which then creates the meta-question of - oh my god are they
both wolves and North is bussing Ruguo?) (
which is like two whole layers of conspiratorial lunacy deep), but on the other hand since North's vote is also not legal, he may simply be avoiding the tragic MAD situation of both parties digging in, instead of switching their votes. I'm tentatively willing to board that wagon should someone provide some decent evidence to back up my honestly super-shaky reasoning there, but absent that I'll happily stick to my guns here.
