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Damn, who knew I was so persuasive . Hopefully I'm not wrong, so I don't look like an ass. With about 25 hours left, here's an update:

VidiLune: 8
Crushita Telcontar: 6
Tomb: 3
RedRevenant: 1
Rasdanation: 1
Grand Land of BLarg: 1

Voting Record

Aragonn: Commander Zemas
Tainted Paws: Crushita Telcontar
Rasdanation: VidiLune
Evelynx: Rasdanation
Barnes: Crushita Telcontar (2)
taulover: Grand Land of BLarg
North: RedRevenant/Sci
BraveSirRobin: RedRevenant/Sci (2)
Crushita Telcontar: RedRevenant/Sci (3)
Wintermoot: Crushita Telcontar (3)
RedRevenant/Sci: Abstain
Tomb: Crushita Telcontar (4)
VidiLune: Crushita Telcontar (5)
Laurentus: Crushita Telcontar (6)
Sapphiron: Tomb
Lumenland: Tomb (2)
Crushita Telcontar: Tomb (3)
Gerrick: VidiLune (2)
Colberius X: VidiLune (3)
Aragonn: VidLune (4)
Hannah B: Tomb (4) (3)
Crushita Telcontar: VidiLune (5)
North: VidiLune (6)
Commander Zemas: VidiLune (7)
Broddring Empire: VidiLune (8.)

By the way, this is so people can try to notice voting patterns and come up with their own theories.

Oh my ;-;
I hope we choose correctly

After Gerrick's analysis, I'm not sure what to do... on one hand, I'm suspicious of Gerrick, because that much thought could just be a ploy to throw us off track... on the other hand, the logic seems sound, so I think that I'm going to shift my vote to VidiLune, give Gerrick the benefit of the doubt, and assume that Pengu is a smart gamemaster who won't assign any new people roles as werewolves.

Damn, who knew I was so persuasive . Hopefully I'm not wrong, so I don't look like an ass. With about 25 hours left, here's an update:

[...]

By the way, this is so people can try to notice voting patterns and come up with their own theories.

I've become suspicious now (but then again, who hasn't)... Is Crushita's repeated changing vote a diversion or a sign of non-targeting innocence? And we can't forget that maybe Gerrick's trying to gang everyone up on VidiLune because he knows Crushita is a psychopath and he's trying to protect him...

After Gerrick's analysis, I'm not sure what to do... on one hand, I'm suspicious of Gerrick, because that much thought could just be a ploy to throw us off track... on the other hand, the logic seems sound, so I think that I'm going to shift my vote to VidiLune, give Gerrick the benefit of the doubt, and assume that Pengu is a smart gamemaster who won't assign any new people roles as werewolves.

This is a blatant attempt to change your vote from Crushita to VidiLune by shifting all the blame to Gerrick if VidiLune flips good. Plus, I can't see the reasoning behind making the assumption that Pengu would not assign power roles to new players.

Not that I'm trying to poke fingers but...it's always possible that Gerrick is actually a psychopath? o.o
It's just a what if, though.

After Gerrick's analysis, I'm not sure what to do... on one hand, I'm suspicious of Gerrick, because that much thought could just be a ploy to throw us off track... on the other hand, the logic seems sound, so I think that I'm going to shift my vote to VidiLune, give Gerrick the benefit of the doubt, and assume that Pengu is a smart gamemaster who won't assign any new people roles as werewolves.

This is a blatant attempt to change your vote from Crushita to VidiLune by shifting all the blame to Gerrick if VidiLune flips good. Plus, I can't see the reasoning behind making the assumption that Pengu would not assign power roles to new players.

Sapph I voted for RedRevenant...

I stand corrected. My apologies for mistaking the person you are voting for but the accusation remains. Just read Crushita as Sci.

Some of these theories said are sound, but the thing is, we won't know anything till someone dies, or until the second discussion.

So we must see what happens before putting serious blame.

After Gerrick's analysis, I'm not sure what to do... on one hand, I'm suspicious of Gerrick, because that much thought could just be a ploy to throw us off track... on the other hand, the logic seems sound, so I think that I'm going to shift my vote to VidiLune, give Gerrick the benefit of the doubt, and assume that Pengu is a smart gamemaster who won't assign any new people roles as werewolves.

This is frankly terrible reasoning, Robin. Any one of us could be chosen as a wolf, given how random it is. They don't have to have a day's experience.

Also, if much thought being put into something to come up with a logical strategy is the identifier for a wolf, then anyone trying to win this game (read: all of us ) are wolves. Hell, by your own standard, YOU would clearly be scummy since you're putting so much thought into whether you can trust Gerrick.

P.S. You can't trust him, or anyone else really, unless you happen to know their roles because you share a power role. Most of us are operating blind.

That said, while I don't see anything suspicious about this sudden shift in votes by everyone based on Gerrick's analysis, I think enough people have jumped on the "lynch VidiLune" bandwagon, and I shall keep my vote right where it is, thank you very much.

I stand corrected. My apologies for mistaking the person you are voting for but the accusation remains. Just read Crushita as Sci.

Pengu has been gamemaster of Werewolf before, and most persons (whether subconsciously or not) do not assign persons with little or no experience important roles.  However, I believe that, while this may be true in most cases, that VidiLune, as the newly adopted member of Pengu's family, could be given such a role as a sort of "vote of confidence" from Pengu in her abilities.  But, as with all psychological speculation, it is quite probable that my analysis is incorrect, and in that event I sincerely apologise.  Logic really requires more data to work, and that requires continuing analyses of the voting trends list. 

Did I explain my thought process to your satisfaction, Sapph?   

(Also, feel free to point out any logical fallacies that you might have found, and I will adjust my analysis accordingly.)


EDIT:  Darn you beat me to posting, Laurentus!!   Your reasoning is actually quite sound, but, at present, all that we have is long-winded speculation backed up with little more than a few suspicious movements. 

I have a feeling Sapph is about to rip your argument to shreds, if I know him at all.

And tau is about to lose his shit because you edited your post too.

And tau is about to lose his shit because you edited your post too.

Oh is that something that you shouldn't do? 

I have a feeling Sapph is about to rip your argument to shreds, if I know him at all.

And I actually like when people do that, even if it seems unusual. I love when people expose flaws in my thinking!! It means that I can refine it and improve my deductive reasoning!!   

Oh my ;-;
I hope we choose correctly

We'll probably end up choosing the Seer.

That said, while I don't see anything suspicious about this sudden shift in votes by everyone based on Gerrick's analysis, I think enough people have jumped on the "lynch VidiLune" bandwagon, and I shall keep my vote right where it is, thank you very much.

I'll give this reason as well for not changing my vote.

Pengu has been gamemaster of Werewolf before, and most persons (whether subconsciously or not) do not assign persons with little or no experience important roles.  However, I believe that, while this may be true in most cases, that VidiLune, as the newly adopted member of Pengu's family, could be given such a role as a sort of "vote of confidence" from Pengu in her abilities.  But, as with all psychological speculation, it is quite probable that my analysis is incorrect, and in that event I sincerely apologise.  Logic really requires more data to work, and that requires continuing analyses of the voting trends list.

Unless Pengu used an RNG to choose roles. Could @Pengu comment on how roles are chosen?