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US Presidential Election: The Electoral College and Party Loyalty
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Laurentus
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  • Despite his racism and sexism? He's a clown.
    1 person likes this post: Aethelia
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    Laurentus
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    Wintermoot
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  • There's a whole generation of 'conservatives' raised on Fox News and taught to believe that anything related to liberal causes or the Democrats is evil and going to destroy the country and everything they know and hold dear. Republicans stood by and encouraged it because it benefited them for almost a decade...but in doing so they created a monster they can no longer control, who sees them as just as bad or evil because they support compromise with Democrats at times...and these are the people that are supporting Donald Trump and Ben Carson.

    And the thing is, if something isn't done about this culture, this monster will be even bigger come 2020. 'Establishment' Republicans are in mortal danger of losing control of their own party.
    1 person likes this post: Aethelia


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    Wintermoot
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    Barnes
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  • In which case they may as well split off and form a new party, but that would cede control overwhelmingly in favour of the Democrats. I suppose it's a choice Republicans must make: whether they are willing to support the cause of this so-called "monster" or essentially relent all political control to Democrats, which might not be so easy to make any more now that Democrats are becoming arguably polarized as well and aren't so willing to compromise anymore as they did back in the "establishment Republican" days. However, the Democrats' polarization isn't coming from new and young outsiders joining the party in a national stage; it's from the establishment—the baby boomers—evolving their stances to become more and more liberal.
    Barnes
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    Arenado
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  • Honestly, I think most Trump supporters are just sick and tired enough of politics as usual that anyone who isnt part of "the man" would do. I mean, and I know this is a....weird comparison, but look at the Nazi's. Most Germans did not think like them or agree with them, but the people went with them because they wanted a change, ANY change. The same is happening with Trump I think.
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    Arenado
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    Arenado
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  • I'm hoping that Super Tuesday will revive this thread.

    Rubio won 1 state. 1. Minnesota can at least be proud that the majority didn't vote for Trump. But Rubio is done. He's Walter Mondale, finished. Cruz would be interesting to watch but I don't think he can defeat Trump either. Kasich and Carson are non-entites. Trump almost certainly will be the nominee.

    Sanders performance was disappointing. Losing Massachusetts was a blow. I think Clinton will take the Democratic nomination.

    As for the General, I hope America doesn't pick that lunatic Trump as it's next leader. If it does then they deserve exactly what they will get.
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    Arenado
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    Laurentus
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  • I don't particularly like Clinton either. Fucking politics.
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    Lumenland
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  • Hi everyone! ^o^
    And, ah, I don't really like any of them.
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    Gerrick
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  • Yeah, Bernie is losing 60-40, and if that keeps up, not even winning all of the superdelegates (literally 0% chance of that) would save him. Super Tuesday consisted of 7 Southern states out of 11, though, and Hillary was supposed to win those, so there's still a chance if Bernie can win more in the other regions since Hillary's few non-Southern state wins have all been pretty close.

    And I agree, Rubio is pretty much done. However, he said he's going to stay in the race, so that will keep his voters from going to Cruz, which will allow Trump to continue winning. Not saying Cruz is much better than Trump, though.

    I honestly don't know if I would vote for Hillary if she wins the Democratic nomination. If it's her versus Trump, I might have to (very reluctantly), though my conscience might force me to throw my vote away to Jill Stein.

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    Gerrick
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    Laurentus
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  • Why are third parties such a big no-no? The two-party system seems idiotic from an outside perspective, but I suspect I'm missing some historical context.
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    Lumenland
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  • Ah, I'm rather democratic myself, but after having talked to some people, I am starting to agree that we cannot afford to have another democratic president, at the moment. Not that I'm saying Trump should win, however, we either need a good and nice republican or a third party to win, which is sadly, very unlikely.
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    BraveSirRobin
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  • Yeah, Bernie is losing 60-40, and if that keeps up, not even winning all of the superdelegates (literally 0% chance of that) would save him. Super Tuesday consisted of 7 Southern states out of 11, though, and Hillary was supposed to win those, so there's still a chance if Bernie can win more in the other regions since Hillary's few non-Southern state wins have all been pretty close.

    And I agree, Rubio is pretty much done. However, he said he's going to stay in the race, so that will keep his voters from going to Cruz, which will allow Trump to continue winning. Not saying Cruz is much better than Trump, though.

    I honestly don't know if I would vote for Hillary if she wins the Democratic nomination. If it's her versus Trump, I might have to (very reluctantly), though my conscience might force me to throw my vote away to Jill Stein.
    Bernie can still win the nomination, though it seems like the media really doesn't want him to win... Obama lost all of Super Tuesday, and he's in the White House, is he not?

    And I think that I'll "throw my vote away" to Jill Stein, too.  I don't like voting for candidates that have the support of corporations... :/
    1 person likes this post: Aethelia
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    Gerrick
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  • Why are third parties such a big no-no? The two-party system seems idiotic from an outside perspective, but I suspect I'm missing some historical context.
    Well, it's not that people don't want them, it's that our elections use First-Past-The-Post voting, meaning whomever has the most votes (not necessarily the majority of the votes) wins. This causes elections to almost always come down to just two candidates/parties. The thought process is that if there are multiple parties, then only the one with the most votes wins, so might as well vote for the party most likely to win even if it only somewhat matches your positions since it's at least better than the other largest party that definitely doesn't match your positions. This is why so many people consider themselves independents and just don't vote since votes for third parties are "wasted votes". This is also why I support preferential (ranked) voting as well as Bernie Sanders, who's an independent.

    The US has also pretty much always had a two-party system because of its use of FPTP voting, though the parties have changed dramatically over time.
    Bernie can still win the nomination, though it seems like the media really doesn't want him to win... Obama lost all of Super Tuesday, and he's in the White House, is he not?

    And I think that I'll "throw my vote away" to Jill Stein, too.  I don't like voting for candidates that have the support of corporations... :/
    Really? I did not know that. I definitely don't think Bernie is out yet, but he's certainly got his work cut out for him. If he wins, it'll be very close considering the number of superdelegates Hillary already has.
    1 person likes this post: taulover

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    Gerrick
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    Barnes
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  • Some people say that Bernie had a good night last night because he won four states; others said he had a bad night delegate-wise because he lost by 20-30+ points in the Southern states and thus recorded fewer delegates than he gained by winning those states. At this point, I believe, Sanders doesn't have much of a chance to win the nomination, but has succeeded in commanding a legitimate race, as well drawing Clinton leftward with his influence.

    Kasich couldn't even win Vermont, the state with one of the most moderate Republican electorates. He's done. Meanwhile, Cruz and Rubio are trying to outbid each other, scrambling to gain the non-Trump delegates in the process. It will not work out well for either of them, especially because the voters' idea of non-Trump and the establishment idea of non-Trump are two different individuals.

    My prediction is that the anti-Trump backlash in the GOP and his alienation of specific demographics will lend an easy win to Clinton in November. She may even win some states that are normally troublesome for the Democrats such as Georgia. Her husband did win that state in '92.

    I personally couldn't much vote for a third party not because I disagree with the concept of third parties but because there isn't a third party that I feel I agree with. I agree that it is definitely a product of first-past-the-post voting and that we should move to instant-runoff voting, however.
    « Last Edit: March 02, 2016, 07:14:07 PM by Barnes »
    Barnes
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    PB
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  • Why are third parties such a big no-no? The two-party system seems idiotic from an outside perspective, but I suspect I'm missing some historical context.
    Well, it's not that people don't want them, it's that our elections use First-Past-The-Post voting, meaning whomever has the most votes (not necessarily the majority of the votes) wins. This causes elections to almost always come down to just two candidates/parties. The thought process is that if there are multiple parties, then only the one with the most votes wins, so might as well vote for the party most likely to win even if it only somewhat matches your positions since it's at least better than the other largest party that definitely doesn't match your positions. This is why so many people consider themselves independents and just don't vote since votes for third parties are "wasted votes". This is also why I support preferential (ranked) voting as well as Bernie Sanders, who's an independent.

    The US has also pretty much always had a two-party system because of its use of FPTP voting, though the parties have changed dramatically over time.

    This is also a big part of it.  The Democratic and Republican parties are both incredibly flexible, in that they can modify their stances enough to absorb the supporters of potentially viable third parties without alienating most of their regular supporters. 

    I can't consciously give my vote to a Republican for the next 15-20 years, if current trends continue.  I honestly don't think I'll feel good about voting for Hillary either, but I'm very optimistic about Bernie's chances.  Only about a quarter of all delegates are pledged, and Hillary's biggest states are already out of the way.  In the meantime she'll continue digging herself deeper holes over scandals, flip flopping, and other general dishonesty.  I think Bern still has an excellent shot at getting the nomination.

    Kasich couldn't even win Vermont, the state with one of the most moderate Republican electorates. He's done. Meanwhile, Cruz and Rubio are trying to outbid each other, scrambling to gain the non-Trump delegates in the process. It will not work out well for either of them, especially because the voters' idea of non-Trump and the establishment idea of non-Trump are two different individuals.

    What do you mean by that?
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    PB
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    Barnes
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  • The establishment wants Rubio to be the most viable candidate other than Trump, although Rubio has won only a single state. Cruz has won four. Yet a Cruz-Trump race for the nomination is just as disastrous to the future of the Republican Party as Trump outright.
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