View Topic

In the midst of the last real economic boom in 1997, Wired Magazine put out an article listing 10 future scenarios that could cause the boom to end. Did they know that virtually all of them would happen over the next 25 years, lol? Credit to the Crashing Up newsletter for bringing it to my inbox.

Article Image

Direct Article Image Link

Well we're what... 4 for 10?  Maybe 5?

I'd say they're all happening to some extent except for 7 and 8.

1 and 3 aren't quite there yet (We're not exactly in a cold war situation with China yet, and Russia, while pushing it, isn't a threat to Europe at least in the actual open threat sense yet), but by god are we getting closer to both of them each day.

2 was pretty obviously going to happen.  When our tech at least in the US centers more around profits and all that nonsense versus actual progress as well, it's never a wonder the new stuff turns out to be a bust.

4, while that hasn't really entirely happened yet, that would have been an excellent prediction of Brexit.

6, yeah they basically just predicted 9/11 and the aftermath of it frighteningly well.

5 and 9, while correctly predicted, 5's bit with the food chain shortages and whatnot has been more of a result of 9, with Climate change just being the other overall looming thing that we're still not on track with.

10, yeah that's pretty much correct.

So I'd say most accurately it's predicted 3 things (5,6, and 9), gotten really close with some others (EU still exists, though there was the occasional close call, though Brexit with the UK was definitely a thing, and 1 and 3 are on their way, but not at the predicted level just yet), and while we aren't there quite yet with 8, we're definitely heading that direction with already rising costs.

7 is the only oddball, though the "already overwhelms the ill-prepared health system" ended up being yet another great prediction of how bad Covid was going to be.

I suppose whether they've been accurately predicted is a bit subjective, so I'll give my own thoughts about this:

1) I don't think the 60s are going to return with China replacing the Soviet Union today, but I do believe that China is eager to establish and assert global dominance...much of what they do today is with the goal of establishing dominance by making other nations dependent on it: the Belt and Road initiative, the draconian requirements they place on foreign companies wanting to do business there (especially forced technology transfers), etc. In the last year they went back on their promises to allow Hong Kong to remain autonomous mostly because it can...they feel powerful enough that they know at this point nobody can do anything about it. And someday, once they've established enough military capacity to make America think twice, they're going to calculate that America isn't going to be there for Taiwan and forcibly seize the island, sparking a cold war if America backs down or a hot war if America defends Taiwan.

We're not there yet, but we will be there at some point. I think the article will be proven right.

2) New technologies have brought about productivity increases, but employees haven't seen the benefits that were promised because companies decided to get more work out of them. Why let people work less and do the same amount of work if you can make them work the same amount and do much more work? It's not so much the technology itself that makes this prediction true so much as people themselves.

3) I don't think it's a stretch to say that Russia is an oligarchy centered around Vladmir Putin, who has ambitions to restore the Soviet Union. Just today I read a number of articles about the possible upcoming Russian invasion of Ukraine...will they really invade? Is it just a feint to squeeze concessions out of the West? Will they stop there? It's well-known that he also has designs on the Baltic states as well. I think the answers largely depend on NATO's response, which has been greatly disappointing. You think Russia cares about the threat of economic sanctions? If NATO won't buy its oil, someone else will.

4) I wouldn't say the EU has ground to a halt, but it is having difficulty overcoming its divisions. At the very least, I don't look for it to grow in quite awhile.

5) Yeah...the developed world has largely been shielded from this (our current problems are more because of COVID and supply chain bottlenecks), but this is becoming a major problem in other areas...the ones least capable of handling it. =/

6) This is certainly a thing, though I think one thing COVID has done is finally take terrorism off most people's radars...though of course now people are even more afraid to reach out and open up because of COVID. v_v

7) Yeah, but mostly because of COVID rather than cancer.

8) The article couldn't have predicted the invention of fracking, which allowed America to produce more oil than ever and reduce the leverage of Middle Eastern countries...again, the current rise in prices have more to do with COVID and some miscalculations on demand than geopolitical stress. I actually don't think this one will come to pass before alternative energy finally becomes affordable for most people.

9) Well, lol.

10) I think you're seeing a lot of backlash these days...in America, we're still seeing the backlash to the reality that a black man can become president, we're seeing the backlash to gay and transgender rights, and we're seeing backlash to immigration, particularly immigration of people who aren't white. I don't know the ultimate impact...maybe in time these issues will be reconciled, but at the moment things look troubling. I'm sure one way or another humanity will progress...it always has. But how far will things go before it will?