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Give up your right to say "I told you so" tomorrow morning! I know I myself was completely wrong in 2016. Will I repeat my error, or will I predict everything to the last electoral vote?

This thread is not supposed to be a contest. I would just like to see what you think will happen before it does. Whether you just want to predict a Trump or Biden victory, predict how a single state will go, or post a full map, go ahead and let us know!

One more thing: predicting a Trump victory does not entail support for Trump, or vice versa. These are predictions about the outcome of an election, NOT arguments about the merits of each politician.

Anyway, without further ado, here's my map:



A few interesting things:

Much ado has been made about Biden's poll numbers in Arizona, Texas and Georgia. While these numbers are encouraging for Biden, I think many Democrats in these states might find longer lines and other forms of voter suppression. Still, there are several opportunities for Biden to steal several traditionally red states, while Trump does not have many options when it comes to flipping blue states.

Polls have been showing that Biden might win Nebraska's second district. While this is certainly interesting, I think it may be nullified by Maine's second district, which voted for Trump in the last election, polls as a toss-up and just seemed like it was still Trump country during my time in Maine.

The closest states that Trump can flip are Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Florida. He can afford to lose either Pennsylvania or Michigan, but not both, and he absolutely needs Florida. If election night finds Biden winning these states easily, I think we can write the obituary on the Trump presidency. If election night has Trump winning these states, we will have to wait up to a few days to see if mail-in ballots (which take longer to count and lean heavily Democratic, this election especially) will cover the difference.

So yeah, post your predictions, argue about the outcome, but NOT about which candidate is better. I don't think the five undecided voters are going to see this post and change their minds.

Oh yeah, and I know I'm posting this on Election Day. I was actually planning to post it next week, but I've been trying not to procrastinate so much. 

I give it 3:2 odds Biden:Trump, which is about where it's sat for me for the last 2 weeks.

Ramming Boney Carrot through ginned up the base, but now that she's safely ensconced on the Supreme Court I think the religious groups will be confident that they can both have a functional government not run by a walking mockery of the Christian faith and still overturn Roe v. Wade, which is obviously the only important issue for them, and not any of the other things Jesus said was a big deal, like helping the poor.

Meanwhile, it's enormously energized the...other side (as a leftist who only incredibly begrudgingly voted for the man, I refuse to consider the greater mass of Biden voters 'left'), who appear to be growing increasingly convinced that the only way to protect reproductive rights might be actual legislation instead of just going 'la dee da the courts did it for us 50 years ago why would we ever write legislation about this'.

My prediction:



Th usual blue states go blue, Biden wins Wisconsin and Michigan by decent margins, Biden wins PA, FL, NC, and AZ by razor thin margins, loses Texas by razor thin margins, and the rest of the usual red states go red. Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa are toss-ups.

Edit: PA should be the lightest blue that FL, AZ, and NC are.

My completely unscientific predictions based entirely on my opinion.

Biden will win, but with only 300 electors or less.

Here's my surprised, disappointed, defeated, but slightly still hopeful prediction:



This sucks. I'm going to bed. I hope I don't wake up to a Trump victory. Fuck.

My current thoughts:



Things seem to be looking good for Biden in Wisconsin and possibly Georgia, whereas I think Michigan and Pennsylvania seem more uncertain. It looks like Trump is going to claim victory regardless though.

Every single one of us was wrong.

Edit: Except for maybe Doc, but just saying "Biden will probably win" doesn't count.

Edit 2: It remains to be seen if Biden still takes Georgia, otherwise W Amadeus may be right.

Edit: Except for maybe Doc, but just saying "Biden will probably win" doesn't count.

I may not have been right, but I also wasn't wrong, and that's obviously the most important thing.

Every single one of us was wrong.

Aaa my gut was telling me Pennsylvania would go blue, all the experts were saying it'd probably happen, but I was pessimistic and thought otherwise.

(Predictions on election night are kinda cheap though since a lot of the outcomes were already a lot easier to predict at that point.)

In fairness, at least according to officially called results so far, I've only been wrong about Ohio so far.

I honestly thought that Biden's blue-collar background would win the state for him, much like I thought it would Pennsylvania. Looking at the NYTs change from 2016 map though, I clearly underestimated the turnout in southeastern Ohio. That area more closely resembles West Virginia and Kentucky more than the rest of Ohio, and is very much Trump country.

It looks like I'll probably be wrong in Georgia too. I know the state has been moving leftward, but I thought it was optimistic to think it would flip this election...I was thinking maybe in 4 or 8 years. Again, I underestimated the intense turnout in the Atlanta suburbs for Biden, and there we go.

But it was always going to be hard to predict...a number of states are going to be won with fewer than 100,000 votes, and that just shows how intensely divided the country is in many places.