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OOC: This is a copy-paste of my original discussion post from r/pagan, beefed up with more thoughts and addendums since its posting.
One aspect of paganism that I have struggled with deciphering (and I believe many others struggle with) is signs or messages from the Divine. Specifically, I have struggled in the past with figuring out whether it was mere coincidence or an actual response, let alone an intelligible response to any question I asked, if I asked any at all. Is it even an answer to something I asked yesterday? Years ago? It quickly becomes indecipherable. However, with time and maturity, I was able to figure out that, for myself, it is best to never assume subtext in anything unless an event is so blatantly a sign that it is unquestionable, which is rare in occasion.

While I understand that this is a difficult subject for many pagans and their pursuit of connecting with the sacred, this is a section of paganism that, whether fair or an overreaction, I find myself frequently annoyed with. Not everything is a sign, nor will your prayers always be answered either at all or in the way you would expect. Whether it be latent Christianity or denial of limited access of the sacred, I see pagans time and time again committing the “Post hoc ergo propter hoc” logical fallacy. To summarize the fallacy, if event B happens after event A, that does not ensure that event A caused event B.

For instance, if you pop your knuckles and then an earthquake happens, you popping your knuckles probably did not cause the earthquake. In relation to paganism, if you pray to Odin to send a sign and then a raven shows up, that does not automatically mean that Odin caused that raven to appear. In the classic case of Wisdom of Odin (AFA/Racist supporter on YouTube), he believes that him shitting his pants was a sign from Odin... do you now see where my annoyance arises? No, not every raven is a sign from Odin and holy gods no, Odin is not going to make you shit yourself. That's just you being paranoid and apparently incompetent. 

In order to avoid this myself, I devised a few rules for myself to follow:

1. Don’t ask or attribute the gods for petty things. If it’s raining outside and I need to mow my lawn, I’m not going to ask Thor to stop the rain. Similarly, if it stops raining the moment I think about mowing the lawn, I'm not going to give thanks to Thor. He, as a deity of limited access, has better things to do than help my inconvenience. This rule helps prevent post hoc fallacies from occurring.

2. They don’t always have to answer. Just because you ask, does not mean you’re entitled to receive. They may not answer you or give you any signs, and that’s okay. Don't try to make up a simple answer, such as an appearance of a raven, just because its convenient. Be honest with yourself.

3. Use feeling to dictate if something is a sign or not. Seeing a cat on the road is not enough to assume it’s a sign from Freyja. Associations are a good starting point, but a sign also requires a sudden, rushing feeling. Even so, is this feeling a feeling of inner inspiration or outward touching? What I mean by this is when, for example, a thunder storm occurs, I don't immediately conclude that it's a sign. However, the sheer power of storms and my connection to Thor inspires emotion within me to where I feel connected to him, regardless of any form of sign.
But that’s just two cents from a solitary pagan living in the Sonoran desert. What are your thoughts?

TL/DR: not everything is a sign from the divine.